If this team goes 1-1 in the Pac12 tourney, 3-0 at home and 2-2 in the remaining road games they finish 22-11 with a NET in the 25-35 range and an NCAA seed in the 7-10 range. That, conservatively, may be their ceiling.
Optimistically, the remaining roadies are probably 4 of their 6 easiest matchups this year in the road, and they could win 3 or even all 4 of them, and Tad has a very solid track record in the conference tournament. The ceiling really is more like 24-10, with a #5-#7 seed, and maybe a good matchup or great performance resulting in a sweet 16.
I wouldn't put any money on that optimistic ceiling, but it is the ceiling.
I'm guessing you mean, if the season ended today they'd be in the NIT.
Define 1/2 or 1/3.
Tad is 5/12, which, by my math, is exactly halfway between 1/2 and 1/3.
And it really should be 6/13 bc of 2020 getting canceled.
Anyway, I agree with much of your sentiment but the hyperbole you're using as evidence is, well, hyperbolic.