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the new world order for the pac refugees

Liver

modded mod
Club Member
Junta Member
so the evil deed is done. usc ****ed over the whole conference and themselves and here we are.

how is everyone going to turn out in the long run?

in no particular order, just covering all 12 lost souls...

1. usc. they will be fine. they have the resources, the support, and the footprint to be competitive. competitive, however, is not the standard. winning it all when you have added ohio state and michigan to your conference schedule has become a lot more difficult. and, the trojans appear to be very slow to respond to the way things are, as they are bleeding recruits. and, they cannot run the ball or play defense. they are screwed in the big.

2, oregon. in the age of pure mercenary drivers, the ducks will be ok. they will have to transition their game and play better defense and such, but lanning knows what they are getting into. this era was built for a nike team, although they are still going to have a hard time catching the leaders.

3. ucla. they are completely and totally and utterly ****ed for the foreseeable future. they do not invest in football; they are unable to compete in the current era. in the pac, if they had a couple guys, they could make noise. those days are now over. they are the cal or northwestern of the big.

4. washington. uw is basically going to be wisconsin or michigan state. once in awhile, the stars will align, and they will be in the mix. there are a lot more dragons in the big than there were in the pac.

5. utah. utah is foundationally built well. run the ball, play defense, and do not **** up. the b12 is weaker than the pac.utah will prosper.

6. arizona state. they have been stepping on their own swinging richards forever. cheat and correct. cheat and correct. they have a decent talent pool to draw from and their limited academics should be an advantage. they are going to underperform in the b12.

7. cal. they are completely totally and utterly ****ed. the whole landscape has seismically shifted and they have no answers. bless their hearts, they are vandy or northwestern at best if their programs survive. they do not have the will or the resources of their nocal partner-- this will end badly.

8. CU. it is of course a pivotal moment for our Buffs. we spent a long long time, even when we won some games, having a hard time balancing between what big time ball is and what our academic leaders perceive that it should be. we have more top end success than this new conference we are in. do we want it as much as some of the eager striving secondary or tertiary programs who are now our conference mates? i dunno.

9. Arizona. they fooooked. but are probably ok with it. it is a good bb league and they are adjacent to the elite club in that shorty pants game. so they will do what they. they are basically ucla with slightly more desire.

10. stanford. folks tend to forget. this is a small school with high academic requirements. their sports facilities are among the best, for every sport, across the board. the money is there but the culture and desire to win and their own perceptions of who they are will limit their upside. forever.

11. and 12. wsu and osu. they will be competitive at their new relegated level. the problem that they both have is they are now on the wrong side of the line. being relegated to the g5 sucks for them. thus, their fortunes and chances of punching their way up an out of this hell scape are not ideaL

**** YOU.

GO BUFFS.
 
With Harbaugh's departure, Oregon is immediately one of the leaders. Ohio State is top dog and will be almost impossible to knock off consistently.


Untitled.png
 
1. USC hired away Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma because he didn't want to coach in the SEC. I don't think he will last at USC but USC will eventually hire that coach that gets them a CFP title but when will that happen?

2. UCLA will want out of the B1G but the money keeps them in. Football is dead at this point and when their Rose Bowl contract is up, they will just move to SoFi. Basketball school.

3. Oregon looks like they have their guy in Lanning and they do a good job keeping coaches in Eugene. Combine that with Nike & recruiting and you could have a winner for the long haul.

4. Washington should be able to continue to win in Seattle because they have that Amazon money sitting around in Seattle.

5. Nebraska will still have that fake sellout crowd going but given their soft schedule this year, if Rhule can't get going, neither will Nebraska and they will just shift their focus to volleyball for the foreseeable future.

6. Iowa will keep winning enough games to go bowling under Frentz. Cornhusker fans would kill to have that kind of consistency.

7. Minnesota is a hockey school and that's all.

8. Wisconsin did get a good football coach but sometimes getting away from what has worked for you for many years can backfire on you...just ask Nebraska.

9. Northwestern might be building a new stadium but will anyone notice?

10. Illinois is a basketball school.

11. Indiana is a basketball school.

12. Purdue is another basketball school from Indiana.

13. Michigan will continue to win because those middle of the road teams will just focus more on basketball.

14. Michigan State might get going under Jonathan Smith but Izzo is getting old and will eventually retire. Will Sparty basketball continue to succeed after that?

15. Ohio State will always be good due to the in-state talent regardless of who the coach is even if Cincinnati is now a P4 member.

16. Penn State...see Ohio State.

17. Rutgers will have one of those seasons like this year when they don't have to play the big boys for the most part and have a bowl season. Ceiling is nowhere as high as the NYC skyline.

18. Maryland is a basketball school.
 
I believe there are still a lot of changes coming that will alter the way college sports are structured. This can go a lot of different directions, none of which is dramatically more likely than the others.
This

The only thing I'm confident in is that status quo will not hold for long
 
This

The only thing I'm confident in is that status quo will not hold for long
Unless the status quo you are talking about is money ruling all, that will stay the same.

A certain group of schools have boosters/alums that are willing to make sure that the money is there to win.

Some like Bama,Georgia, tOSU, etc. are willing to trust the people they are paying to make the decisions and will more often than not win on a high level.

Others like Texas, USC, etc. have financial backers who also think they know how things should be done and will regularly screw things up so that winning big becomes the exception.

To those who think that now that Harbaugh is gone Michigan is going to go away think again. They may have some down (for them) years but they have enough support based on the idea that they can't let Ohio State win everything that they will rise to the top again.

Nobody knows what college football will look like in 20 or even 10 years but I would not bet against that high money group of schools still being on or near the top.
 
so the evil deed is done. usc ****ed over the whole conference and themselves and here we are.

how is everyone going to turn out in the long run?

in no particular order, just covering all 12 lost souls...

1. usc. they will be fine. they have the resources, the support, and the footprint to be competitive. competitive, however, is not the standard. winning it all when you have added ohio state and michigan to your conference schedule has become a lot more difficult. and, the trojans appear to be very slow to respond to the way things are, as they are bleeding recruits. and, they cannot run the ball or play defense. they are screwed in the big.

2, oregon. in the age of pure mercenary drivers, the ducks will be ok. they will have to transition their game and play better defense and such, but lanning knows what they are getting into. this era was built for a nike team, although they are still going to have a hard time catching the leaders.

3. ucla. they are completely and totally and utterly ****ed for the foreseeable future. they do not invest in football; they are unable to compete in the current era. in the pac, if they had a couple guys, they could make noise. those days are now over. they are the cal or northwestern of the big.

4. washington. uw is basically going to be wisconsin or michigan state. once in awhile, the stars will align, and they will be in the mix. there are a lot more dragons in the big than there were in the pac.

5. utah. utah is foundationally built well. run the ball, play defense, and do not **** up. the b12 is weaker than the pac.utah will prosper.

6. arizona state. they have been stepping on their own swinging richards forever. cheat and correct. cheat and correct. they have a decent talent pool to draw from and their limited academics should be an advantage. they are going to underperform in the b12.

7. cal. they are completely totally and utterly ****ed. the whole landscape has seismically shifted and they have no answers. bless their hearts, they are vandy or northwestern at best if their programs survive. they do not have the will or the resources of their nocal partner-- this will end badly.

8. CU. it is of course a pivotal moment for our Buffs. we spent a long long time, even when we won some games, having a hard time balancing between what big time ball is and what our academic leaders perceive that it should be. we have more top end success than this new conference we are in. do we want it as much as some of the eager striving secondary or tertiary programs who are now our conference mates? i dunno.

9. Arizona. they fooooked. but are probably ok with it. it is a good bb league and they are adjacent to the elite club in that shorty pants game. so they will do what they. they are basically ucla with slightly more desire.

10. stanford. folks tend to forget. this is a small school with high academic requirements. their sports facilities are among the best, for every sport, across the board. the money is there but the culture and desire to win and their own perceptions of who they are will limit their upside. forever.

11. and 12. wsu and osu. they will be competitive at their new relegated level. the problem that they both have is they are now on the wrong side of the line. being relegated to the g5 sucks for them. thus, their fortunes and chances of punching their way up an out of this hell scape are not ideaL

**** YOU.

GO BUFFS.
I don't see how the two brightest futures of the Pac refugees are not CU and Utah.
 
I don't see how the two brightest futures of the Pac refugees are not CU and Utah.
Utah has a bright future simply because they will continue being a very solid program with a high floor and moderately high ceiling in a mediocre conference.

CU still has to prove it can win with Prime and this new model of portal heavy recruiting. Obviously, if Prime can continue the uptick in recruiting (yes it will need to evolve into a more balanced approach and more than one 5* player every cycle), the sky is the limit, but this season looms very large. I think Prime is under a lot of pressure to get to 8-9 wins at minimum; not because of his job security but because anything short of that and I think the “schtick” starts to wear off. If 8-9+ happens, it skyrockets, IMO
 
Utah has a bright future simply because they will continue being a very solid program with a high floor and moderately high ceiling in a mediocre conference.

CU still has to prove it can win with Prime and this new model of portal heavy recruiting. Obviously, if Prime can continue the uptick in recruiting (yes it will need to evolve into a more balanced approach and more than one 5* player every cycle), the sky is the limit, but this season looms very large. I think Prime is under a lot of pressure to get to 8-9 wins at minimum; not because of his job security but because anything short of that and I think the “schtick” starts to wear off. If 8-9+ happens, it skyrockets, IMO
I agree with a lot of what you say-and I think we're getting there. Schedule sets us up for it-If CU sweeps the OOC (they did last year and its probably easier with the FCS team replacing TCU) and beats Baylor and Cincy, that's five. Get three more and you're at 8.
 
so the evil deed is done. usc ****ed over the whole conference and themselves and here we are.

how is everyone going to turn out in the long run?

in no particular order, just covering all 12 lost souls...

1. usc. they will be fine. they have the resources, the support, and the footprint to be competitive. competitive, however, is not the standard. winning it all when you have added ohio state and michigan to your conference schedule has become a lot more difficult. and, the trojans appear to be very slow to respond to the way things are, as they are bleeding recruits. and, they cannot run the ball or play defense. they are screwed in the big.

2, oregon. in the age of pure mercenary drivers, the ducks will be ok. they will have to transition their game and play better defense and such, but lanning knows what they are getting into. this era was built for a nike team, although they are still going to have a hard time catching the leaders.

3. ucla. they are completely and totally and utterly ****ed for the foreseeable future. they do not invest in football; they are unable to compete in the current era. in the pac, if they had a couple guys, they could make noise. those days are now over. they are the cal or northwestern of the big.

4. washington. uw is basically going to be wisconsin or michigan state. once in awhile, the stars will align, and they will be in the mix. there are a lot more dragons in the big than there were in the pac.

5. utah. utah is foundationally built well. run the ball, play defense, and do not **** up. the b12 is weaker than the pac.utah will prosper.

6. arizona state. they have been stepping on their own swinging richards forever. cheat and correct. cheat and correct. they have a decent talent pool to draw from and their limited academics should be an advantage. they are going to underperform in the b12.

7. cal. they are completely totally and utterly ****ed. the whole landscape has seismically shifted and they have no answers. bless their hearts, they are vandy or northwestern at best if their programs survive. they do not have the will or the resources of their nocal partner-- this will end badly.

8. CU. it is of course a pivotal moment for our Buffs. we spent a long long time, even when we won some games, having a hard time balancing between what big time ball is and what our academic leaders perceive that it should be. we have more top end success than this new conference we are in. do we want it as much as some of the eager striving secondary or tertiary programs who are now our conference mates? i dunno.

9. Arizona. they fooooked. but are probably ok with it. it is a good bb league and they are adjacent to the elite club in that shorty pants game. so they will do what they. they are basically ucla with slightly more desire.

10. stanford. folks tend to forget. this is a small school with high academic requirements. their sports facilities are among the best, for every sport, across the board. the money is there but the culture and desire to win and their own perceptions of who they are will limit their upside. forever.

11. and 12. wsu and osu. they will be competitive at their new relegated level. the problem that they both have is they are now on the wrong side of the line. being relegated to the g5 sucks for them. thus, their fortunes and chances of punching their way up an out of this hell scape are not ideaL

**** YOU.

GO BUFFS.

I agree with your analysis in the short term, but as @Not_Sure said the entire CFB landscape is in such a state of turmoil that how things shake out in the longer term is the big unknown.
 
agree with everyone who says the future is very uncertain.

all we can control is how hard we try to win, win now, and win big. we have to re-eleavate our status so that we make the cut when the next round arrives.
 
1. USC hired away Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma because he didn't want to coach in the SEC. I don't think he will last at USC but USC will eventually hire that coach that gets them a CFP title but when will that happen?

2. UCLA will want out of the B1G but the money keeps them in. Football is dead at this point and when their Rose Bowl contract is up, they will just move to SoFi. Basketball school.

3. Oregon looks like they have their guy in Lanning and they do a good job keeping coaches in Eugene. Combine that with Nike & recruiting and you could have a winner for the long haul.

4. Washington should be able to continue to win in Seattle because they have that Amazon money sitting around in Seattle.

5. Nebraska will still have that fake sellout crowd going but given their soft schedule this year, if Rhule can't get going, neither will Nebraska and they will just shift their focus to volleyball for the foreseeable future.

6. Iowa will keep winning enough games to go bowling under Frentz. Cornhusker fans would kill to have that kind of consistency.

7. Minnesota is a hockey school and that's all.

8. Wisconsin did get a good football coach but sometimes getting away from what has worked for you for many years can backfire on you...just ask Nebraska.

9. Northwestern might be building a new stadium but will anyone notice?

10. Illinois is a basketball school.

11. Indiana is a basketball school.

12. Purdue is another basketball school from Indiana.

13. Michigan will continue to win because those middle of the road teams will just focus more on basketball.

14. Michigan State might get going under Jonathan Smith but Izzo is getting old and will eventually retire. Will Sparty basketball continue to succeed after that?

15. Ohio State will always be good due to the in-state talent regardless of who the coach is even if Cincinnati is now a P4 member.

16. Penn State...see Ohio State.

17. Rutgers will have one of those seasons like this year when they don't have to play the big boys for the most part and have a bowl season. Ceiling is nowhere as high as the NYC skyline.

18. Maryland is a basketball school.
C+
 
Utah has a bright future simply because they will continue being a very solid program with a high floor and moderately high ceiling in a mediocre conference.

CU still has to prove it can win with Prime and this new model of portal heavy recruiting. Obviously, if Prime can continue the uptick in recruiting (yes it will need to evolve into a more balanced approach and more than one 5* player every cycle), the sky is the limit, but this season looms very large. I think Prime is under a lot of pressure to get to 8-9 wins at minimum; not because of his job security but because anything short of that and I think the “schtick” starts to wear off. If 8-9+ happens, it skyrockets, IMO
The Pac-12 was a mediocre conference. The ACC with Clemson and FSU is a mediocre conference.
 
You need to see an ophthalmologist.
In terms of on the field success? The most likely former Pac 12 team to the CFP this year is Utah (who I think wins the Big 12). I could easily see Oregon and Washington at 8-4, which isn't getting into the CFP. UCLA feels like a huge mess, and USC has to show me something defensively before I believe there. CU is going to take a step forward. I expect another OOC sweep, wins over Baylor and Cincy, and then 3-4 wins out of the other 7 conference games.
 
In terms of on the field success? The most likely former Pac 12 team to the CFP this year is Utah (who I think wins the Big 12). I could easily see Oregon and Washington at 8-4, which isn't getting into the CFP. UCLA feels like a huge mess, and USC has to show me something defensively before I believe there. CU is going to take a step forward. I expect another OOC sweep, wins over Baylor and Cincy, and then 3-4 wins out of the other 7 conference games.
You can't see ****, that's the problem. Oregon and UW 8-4? LMFAO. You clearly have done ZEEEEERO research. Let's make a bet on how many games Oregon and Colorado win next year?
 
You can't see ****, that's the problem. Oregon and UW 8-4? LMFAO. You clearly have done ZEEEEERO research. Let's make a bet on how many games Oregon and Colorado win next year?
Oregon has Ohio State at home (likely L), Purdue on the road the following Friday (trap game), and road trips to both Michigan and Wisconsin in November.

All four of those are losable.
 
Oregon has Ohio State at home (likely L), Purdue on the road the following Friday (trap game), and road trips to both Michigan and Wisconsin in November.

All four of those are losable.

I doubt the Purdue game will be a problem for them despite the short week. The Boise game could be interesting
 
I doubt the Purdue game will be a problem for them despite the short week. The Boise game could be interesting
I've got them losing to OSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They'll drop another game somewhere along the line.

Ducks won't make the CFP. These preseason top 25s that have them like at #3 are a joke.
 
I've got them losing to OSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They'll drop another game somewhere along the line.

Ducks won't make the CFP. These preseason top 25s that have them like at #3 are a joke.
You can make a lot of money in Vegas.
 
I'm taking their under for sure. I don't trust them with that schedule, and I also don't think Dillon Gabriel can stay healthy.

Speaking of which, how is he still eligible as a senior? He had the COVID year, and then was 2021 a redshirt season when he got hurt? But he put up impressive numbers for the Sooners. I still think Oregon makes the CFP. My bold (or not so bold) prediction for the season is that Michigan misses the CFP.
 
I've got them losing to OSU, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They'll drop another game somewhere along the line.

Ducks won't make the CFP. These preseason top 25s that have them like at #3 are a joke.
Wisconsin is just another team now that they’ve gone away from their traditional identity and they don’t have the talent to keep up with programs like Oregon.
 
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Speaking of which, how is he still eligible as a senior? He had the COVID year, and then was 2021 a redshirt season when he got hurt? But he put up impressive numbers for the Sooners. I still think Oregon makes the CFP. My bold (or not so bold) prediction for the season is that Michigan misses the CFP.
My buddy is on the staff at OU, and they were glad when he left.

Combo of they're super high on the Arnold kid.....and Gabriel is so ****ing fragile.
 
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