BrokenPrinter
Well-Known Member
I'm guessing rock bottom will be sometime around December 2023 when we are trying to process a third fail season under KD as well as the fact that we can't even find a decent replacement.
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What's our "rock bottom"?
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
The thing about rock bottom is that most situations and people don't rebound when they hit it.
Cheating would mean somebody cares about winning.
To be this bad and be cheating would almost be impossible.
Buffs61
Well-Known Member
I don't disagree with you that would be more lasting. You are also right that the stars would have to align for that to become a reality. That is why I am for a gimmicky short-term solution by making a change with the caliber of recruits we can realistically get right now. Once we can get to a 6-7 win team and go bowling on a regular bases, then CU might be in a place to make more long-term changes.
After reading all of the above posts, I would actually put the failure on RG by his inability to maneuver through the end of MM, through the MT situation, and then settling for KD. I cannot stand the Old Man Retread strategy for coaching hires. When a guy fails, he is a failure, give the next guy a try. I also think that it is rare for an assistant to be ready to go and run a program as the head coach if they have not had any time or training in that role. I strongly think that we should take a flyer on a Young coach/staff that is doing good things at a slightly lower level and arrange the cash around them with a lot of incentives. When we hired KD, we hit the toilet handle and flushed the future down the drain by choosing a safe option, rather than a really exciting option. I do not want CU Football to die, I want to be good, and I think that it can still happen, but not with KD
I respect the optimism, but in the last year and a half CFB has hit the accelerator toward the cliff that will eventually kill it. Mike Mac never had to deal with NIL or the portal being what it is now, not to mention the growing financial disparity between the conferences and teams.
5-10 years ago it was easier to see a path forward, present day and the near future looks brutal for CU and teams like us.
BrokenPrinter
Well-Known Member
KD was not a safe option, he was a fail option. Hiring an NFL WR coach to run your program is not safe in any regards. Hiring a guy that failed running a program 15 years ago and has been a position coach since then is not safe, that's just failure. It's just waving the white flag as a program.
I just think there's a little bit of overreaction. No, CU won't compete for 5* recruits out of high school, but CU hasn't been doing that without NIL being involved. The transfers we are seeing leave CU aren't due to NIL and the ones that transfer into CU won't be due to NIL. CU isn't swimming in the pond where big time NIL money is coming into play and it doesn't require those kinds of players to be a 6+ win program.
I'm not excusing the administration, but they are definitely not what is standing in the way of this program being a consistent bowl team. That is Rick George and Karl Dorrell.
I totally agree, by "Safe", I meant in a CU kind of way safe, meaning he can pass background checks, he is not willing to push the limit on anything, and he is a nice quiet guy that will not embarrass the academics. The fact that KD never even sniffed the idea of going back to another college job is telling, the fact that he failed in the one year he even went back to college, and the fact that he was not actively involved in any other coaching searches was so alarming and sad. He is getting paid a lot of money, and there are some really hungry and talented young coaches out there at the lower levels, honestly, there are better options at some of the largest Texas High Schools!!!
BrokenPrinter
Well-Known Member
Maybe I'm naïve, but I don't really think that CU is in worse position with regards to NIL than most of the Pac-12. Sure we can't compete with programs such as USC/UCLA/Oregon, but I don't see any reason why we couldn't outcompete programs like Cal, Wazzu, OSU, Arizona, Utah, Stanford, ect ect for NIL money.
He was the safe hire in that he was going to run a clean program that wouldn't get close to the line scandal/sanctions/etc and he wouldn't leave for another job. He's also a guy who had been a HC in this conference before and never missed out on a bowl game. He ultimately didn't live up to expectations for what UCLA wanted their program to be, but it's hard for me to say it was a failure. He was a safe hire for what RG wanted and needed at the time, even if that criteria didn't align with what the fans wanted.
Correct. In my opinion, the overreaction to the NIL stuff is on the same level as a lot of people comparing CU recruiting to Alabama, Georgia, USC, Oregon, Ohio State, Clemson, Texas, etc. We weren't competing with them before NIL and we will continue to not compete with them now that NIL is a thing.
The problem is a really ****ty hire at the HC position.
Distefano ain't getting fired. He is going to retire within the next 24months
In years past we’ve had a few big recruiting wins (Gonzo, BRice, Clayton etc), granted they haven’t all panned out, but my belief is that in an NIL world those players may not even give us a visit. Not when B1G and SEC schools have a payment plan laid out on paper for these guys from the moment they sign.
I also didn’t realize that 6 wins was the target you’re considering a successful team. My definition would be 6 win floor but typically in the 8 win realm, with conference championship appearances every few years.
I have no interest in rooting for a team that has a ceiling of mediocrity, I’ve done that long enough. Which is probably why I only watched 3 games this last season. What’s the point in investing time and money in a program that will never be anything more than a bottom dweller in CFB, with no real respite?
Speak for yourself
We are over-reacting some, as CU isn't heading towards CSU level. It is sad to see our starters and high draft prospects bailing due to losing their coach and going to get paid. I doubt we are close to losing all our games next year, but the ceiling is very low.
What's really sad and frustrating about the current situation is that the divisions between the next generations of have and have nots are being made clear, and thanks to 20 years of mismanagement CU is clearly a have not. Which sucks. Probably what frustrates us all the most is that CU's administration is making it very obvious that they are fine with where CU is at as a have not. It's the end of the dream of the 90's.
What's really sad and frustrating about the current situation is that the divisions between the next generations of have and have nots are being made clear, and thanks to 20 years of mismanagement CU is clearly a have not. Which sucks. Probably what frustrates us all the most is that CU's administration is making it very obvious that they are fine with where CU is at as a have not. It's the end of the dream of the 90's.
BrokenPrinter
Well-Known Member
Sure, but the rest of the Pac-12 outside of USC/Oregon and probably UCLA is also in that same boat. We're not really getting screwed anymore than the others in our conference. I don't think NIL is a good excuse for not winning and being competitive in the Pac-12.
Ignoring everything but this paragraph, I have a genuine question for you - what makes you think other programs would do better? CU basketball is at its peak right now - and let's be brutally honest that unless lightning strikes twice, we're dropping down again as soon as Tad steps down. Women's hoops has a strong history, and I could see them making some noise again but that won't drive the money that is needed for the program to grow. Cross Country and Skiing are awesome, but who here has ever watched a cross country meet?
I've been very vocal that Tad should get whatever he wants, and no one should ever question it. But the best way for that to happen is a football program that doesn't suck. The schools that are making it work in the Big East are all either small private schools or UConn which has a history that when you combine men & women's teams is pretty hard to match. I don't know HOW we fix football (although getting rid of anyone who was once part of the Buff4Life group or ever coached/played at CU is a damn good start), but getting rid of it won't help any of the other sports either.
Now if you want to discuss shifting priorities to where football gets enough to tread water and putting more money and resources into hoops, that's a legit discussion. But even that would be tricky for us to make up so much ground.
Great. So in your vision we are one of the mediocre to ****ty teams in a conference left behind. Sounds like a blast.
Im not sure how you describe the situation like you do, but then state there’s no impact to CU from the NIL?
Buffs61
Well-Known Member
Have you factored in the dead cat bounce? The over/under for wins is 1 for 2022 per AllBuffs. That's a tough bet with the 2022 schedule.
That is what baffles me. Nobody was after HCKD. Nobody. There was a reason. I would have preferred taking a flier on a G5 HC that had success and try to bring his staff with him. If HCKD really was the only guy you could land, why give a guaranteed contract? If he flames out, you have no ability to try and correct the situation. If HCKD would not sign anything but a guaranteed contract, then hire an interim. It was either massive mismanagement or skibum is right, RG took his orders, hired HCKD, and got paid for being a good little boy.
Gonzo's recruitment came down to CU and Purdue and Clayton's between CU and a backup plan for Florida. Rice was a legit win against great competition, but he came here because he developed a great relationship with Chev and Tucker. Point being, while Rice certainly would have, neither Gonzo or Clayton were going to get big NIL offers from SEC programs. The right coaches at CU can still pull good recruits.
As far as win total expectations, I think CU can be a 6-8 win program with a good staff, but yes, the general expectation going forward should probably be 6 wins and a bowl appearance to be a respectable program, not necessarily a successful one.
I have no interest in telling you what to do with your time and money, I'm just saying that CU's problem relative to not being able to be a 6 win bowl team isn't the administration, NIL or financial disparity. Those issues are the problem with CU not being able to be a 9-10+ win program.
I think the problem is that you have been under the impression that CU is still a "sleeping giant" that was capable of winning the Pac 12 and going to the Rose Bowl or CFP. Adjust your expectations to fit reality and I think you'll see what I and a few others are trying to say.
So you are saying CU cannot have a program like Utah’s?
BrokenPrinter
Well-Known Member
Depends on how you look at it. If your goal is to compete with the biggest programs in the nation then we are 1000% ****ed in that regard, just like a vast majority of teams. I'm not disputing this. The gap between the haves and have nots is widening at an insane pace. We do not and probably never have had the resources to compete in terms of $$$ on that level. If that is still what you are looking for out of this program, you are going to be very very unhappy.
I actually don't think the Pac-12 is that bad off with regards to NIL when compared to other conferences. It wouldn't surprise me if the Pac eventually ends up as the third strongest conference due to NIL income. The Big-12 has a lot of schools in flyover states that are going to be hard to monetize. Most of their schools in big metro areas are small private schools that will be harder to drive NIL income off of. The ACC doesn't have a strong football tradition and there are a lot of small private schools. Pac-12 has big public schools that are the only P5's in several big metros areas. (NorCal, Seattle, Phoenix, Denver, SoCal)
I think this program is insanely ****ed from a variety of angles, but NIL is not really one of them. We are actually in a better position than most in our conference.
That's true, hopefully we will.
Very good chance when this whole thing shakes out the NIL money is only going to really impact a very limited number of players.
Yes the 5* guys, especially at showcase positions like QB, RB, WR, Pass Rushers are going to be able to command significant amounts of money. Fact is though that there are about 6,000 scholarship players at P5 schools plus a few higher profile G5 schools as well.
No sponsors are out there ready to throw tens of thousands of dollars at that many players. Consider that most NFL players either don't have sponsorship deals or are doing local appearances for a few hundred bucks a shot. There isn't going to be a magic money well pouring cash on thousands of college players. They might be looking at widespread shoe and apparel deals but most players won't get more than a few hundred or maybe a thousand dollars a year for that.
Prominent players at the top schools will make a lot more but as you mention we don't see a lot of those guys anyways. A few places like Nebraska will have boosters come up with programs so every player gets some money from the implement dealers association or the Cow Patty County Ag Association but again the totals aren't going to be deal breakers. Would you go live in that state for $800 a year?
CU has available resources. We complain about being poor but are in the top half of P5 in revenues and have an alumni base that came up with the dollars for the Champions Center and some other significant expenditures.
What we need is an administration that stops screwing around trying to bleed athletics instead of supporting it and expectations of success along with that administrative support.
Put a quality product on the field that can compete with most of the teams we play and the fans will be back. More importantly the donors will regain interest.
Win 6-8 games per year and the interest level rises. Along with that raised interest level the donations and sponsorship money goes up enough to support an 8-10 win per year program. That is were with administrative support and competent management the program can be.
Are we going to go above 8-10 wins per year, excluding an occasional breakout year or down year? Not likely. We will not be able to compete financially, or football factory style, with the top programs who dominate the game but being the next level down is not a bad place to be.
Reality is that Utah, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and some others already do this and the fact is that those schools don't have more potential resources than we do. (Okie state had T. Boone pull them up from the dregs but now they are maintaining with other resources.)
Winners are attracted to winners. Financially successful people like to put their money into things that are or will be successful.
Our administration does not get the idea that putting a quality team on the field will generate significantly more donations but that those donations will not be limited to athletics. Gordon Gee understood this. People don't like to acknowledge that he translated our football success into some major donations for non-athletic purposes. This is exactly why Ohio State didn't hesitate to take him when they needed a president.
We ain't there yet...by a long shot. Things will steadily decline over time, just has they have over the past twenty years. There may be a positive bump in there once in a while (like 2016), but nothing moves the needle (from a trajectory standpoint) until there is a massive regular infusion of cash into the program and it becomes a centerpiece for the administration. Seriously, I don't see either of those things happening. We have seen the glory days of Buff football. We'll not see them again.
I appreciate the response, but you and @The Alabaster Yak are acting like the only two options are fighting for bowl eligibility each year or playing Bama in the NC.
What I’m talking about is Iowa or Utah level success. 8-4 average record with a halfway decent bowl game. Some seasons you’ll scrape by with 6 wins, others you’ll surprise and get 10.
If that moderate level of success isn’t even in the realm of possibility at CU, then what are we even doing giving a ****?