That 2014 class, yikes.
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Your final thoughts on 2018 recruiting class?
- Thread starter Sykobuff
- Start date
I agree to a point, but the 2013 and 2014 classes were laughably terrible.
2013 definitely wasn't laughably terrible, might have been ranked low but performed pretty well on the field.
Yeah, definitely some good players in that class with a few that were elite. Transition classes are always tough, so do give them at least a break there.
As I said, it's one way to evaluate things.
The second level is to ask yourself if we get results for the 2019 & 2020 classes that are similar to the 2017 & 2018 classes, will the roster look better than it does today?
The third level is to ask yourself if, even with that improvement, it's good enough to challenge for Pac-12 championships?
My skepticism is on the third level. I have positive answers on the first 2 levels. But improvement is very methodical, not exponential. We were so bad when MacIntyre took over that the gap between there and where we needed to be was enormous. To the point where things could improve a lot and it still wouldn't be a team that would have a winning record in conference play.
I guess where I'm at is that I'm impatient. A certain level of impatience is a good thing because it sets standards and applies pressure. But too much impatience can cause rash decisions that kill something that's healthy and growing. I don't know where my impatience meter should be right now.
I agree with this and I think we need to accept the fact that Mac values the coach over recruiter in his ACs. Yes, he's slowly and methodically added better recruiters to his staff, but none of them are recruiting "aces" and that hasn't been the primary requirement. If 2017 and 2018 are the baseline classes for CU going forward under Mac then the team will be competitive year in, year out, likely be a perennial bowl team, and every 4 or 5 years contend for the South. I think we all aspire for this program to be better than that, but I'm not sure that will be the case under Mac.
One standard I would use if is the recruiting class is one third full of JUCO/grad transfer players, your program is not going to be very consistent on a year to year basis.
Good post.
It's pretty easy to see that MM held on to coaches way too long who were flat out terrible at recruiting. If CU maintains this type of recruiting (17 & 18 classes), then I think CU makes bowl games most years and is probably around a 6-8 win team. However, is that where we want to be, and as you said, how much patience does RG have with this? I think MM was the perfect fit to get CU out of the disarray they were in.
In a way, I wonder if the 2016 season gave him a feeling that this type of recruiting can be sustainable each year to compete for conference championships?
I think too much impatience after the 2015 season where they were so close to a bowl game would have obviously been a killer. However, after the success in 2016, followed up by the disappointing season last year, I think "too much impatience" right now is warranted.
If the rumor is true that RG was livid with MM in regards to the whole off-season issues (with a huge salary raise at that) and how they preformed early in the season, I think MM is on a short leash going forward.
Give them a B - fills some needs, brought in players who hopefully can contribute immediately, and opened up some new recruiting areas (Oklahoma, Washington) and kept the pipelines in CA and TX flowing.
How a player fits on a team, fills a roster, and is able to develop has nothing to do with stars. We have had way too many highly regarded recruits fizzle out, it is so difficult to predict how an adolescent is going to develop, and it is evident that rankings are influenced by offer lists, to put too much stock in to rankings.
CU seems to have a brief history of 4 and 5 star recruits like Darnell Scott, Lynn Katoa, Nick Kasa, Maurice Greer, Yuri Wright not living up to the hype. For every Paul Richardson 4* (stud) there seem to be two Andre Simmons 4* (dud)
Where as some of our best players have been undervalued in the recruiting process.
Klatt NR, Brian Iwuh 2*, Rodney Stewart 2*, Greg Henderson 2*, David Bakhtiari 2*, Nelson Spruce 3*, Philip Lindsay 3*
How a player fits on a team, fills a roster, and is able to develop has nothing to do with stars. We have had way too many highly regarded recruits fizzle out, it is so difficult to predict how an adolescent is going to develop, and it is evident that rankings are influenced by offer lists, to put too much stock in to rankings.
CU seems to have a brief history of 4 and 5 star recruits like Darnell Scott, Lynn Katoa, Nick Kasa, Maurice Greer, Yuri Wright not living up to the hype. For every Paul Richardson 4* (stud) there seem to be two Andre Simmons 4* (dud)
Where as some of our best players have been undervalued in the recruiting process.
Klatt NR, Brian Iwuh 2*, Rodney Stewart 2*, Greg Henderson 2*, David Bakhtiari 2*, Nelson Spruce 3*, Philip Lindsay 3*
CitizenKane
Well-Known Member
I agree with @TSchekler on this one. We should be impatient at this point. Six years is a long time. This coming season CU has to be back in a bowl game and recruiting for the 2019 class has to be better, not a little better, a lot better (Top 25). There are zero excuses for it not to be, and even MM is setting up 19 to be a big recruiting year by saying they really got a jump start on the 19 class.
Anything less than a bowl and a top 25 class and I expect change (Missing on either isn't acceptable).
I hope we can all agree that we'd be happier if CU was signing 20 blue chip recruits every year instead of hoping that the coaches are doing such a good job of evaluating, developing and scheming that a bunch of our low to mid 3* recruits end up performing like blue chippers in their college careers.
lawdogg
Club Member
So, is the prevailing sentiment that the success of 2016 (with players from even poorer recruiting classes) was pretty much just a fluke?
It was probably the combination of a perfect storm. Embree senior recruits (who red-shirted) and MM senior recruits. With the ability that they stayed somewhat healthy and had a senior class who were big time leaders, I think you saw an outlier of that type of recruiting.
I do not think it was a fluke. That defensive coaching staff outside of Jeffcoat was very, very good.
That secondary was absolutely dirty. Isaiah Oliver couldn't even start.
I think you're setting yourself up for disappointment about a top 25 class. Maybe I'm wrong and the coaching additions really pay dividends on the recruiting trail, but as I said before, I think 2017 and 2018 caliber classes is about the ceiling under Mac at CU.
lawdogg
Club Member
So, here’s my confusion. If recruiting has not taken an appreciable step back from 4-5 years ago (in fact, Nik’s post suggests recruiting has taken a step forward from then), and if very good coaching was the key to the 2016 success, is that level of success something that can be duplicated now even without a leap in recruiting rankings? I get that DJ Eliot has not shown himself to be anywhere near JL as a coordinator to this point. Just trying to think this through.
It's not a matter of duplicating that sort of season. You can recruit at a mediocre level and have a season where you catch lightening in a bottle. Speaking for myself (but I think @Duff Man agrees), the issue is that delivering 2016 type seasons will be rare and unsustainable as any sort of a norm without better recruiting.
I think recruiting at this level can result in a Pac 12 South Championship every 4-5 years, but as we saw in 2016, there is still a pretty massive gap between being in the CCG and winning the CCG. I don't think recruiting at this level will ever lead to winning the Pac 12 conference.
Those seasons should happen 3 to 4 times a decade, not once a decade. Hcmm is on Pace for once a decade.
Keeping up with the Jones's (the rest of the P-12) will be problematic until they can post some back to back winning bowl games. IMO the recruiting effort is easier for the coaching staff when you have national exposure and a prime time game here and there. I'll give this class a B- and reserve the right to change it once league play begins.
Exactly.
CU is a program with a .580 historical win percentage. Having a 10-4 season (winning percentage of .714) is within a normal range for CU. 3 or 4 of those in a decade (finishing 9-4 or 10-3 after the bowl season) is just performing to the mean. And with that, we know that there's a sustainable upside like we saw in the 1990s.
I think the lack of talent tends to show up in the "off" years.
CitizenKane
Well-Known Member
I think you're right, but I hope you're wrong. I don't think CU can be built into a consistent top 6 PAC program with those classes.
I just wonder how Wisconsin does it. Starting this year and going back to the 2010 class, their 247 rankings have been 44, 39, 35, 41, 32, 40, 65, 44, 46
In that same time frame, they've gone to a bowl game every year, won their division 6/8 years, won the BIG 3 times and subsequently gone to 3 Rose Bowls (2010, 11, 12), have wins in the Outback, Holiday, Cotton and Orange bowls, won 10 or more games 6 times and their worst season was Beilema's last in 2012 where they went 8-6 (still played in the Rose Bowl that season, btw). Un****ingbelievable.
In that same time frame, they've gone to a bowl game every year, won their division 6/8 years, won the BIG 3 times and subsequently gone to 3 Rose Bowls (2010, 11, 12), have wins in the Outback, Holiday, Cotton and Orange bowls, won 10 or more games 6 times and their worst season was Beilema's last in 2012 where they went 8-6 (still played in the Rose Bowl that season, btw). Un****ingbelievable.
Look at the South division as a whole since the conference expanded. Every team has at least one 10-win season. Every team but Utah has won the division at least once (and even, they lost a tiebreaker one year).
Yet every team but USC has had at least one losing season in that timeframe too.
Some of that has to be recruiting issues, right?
lawdogg
Club Member
That’s fair.