Your final thoughts on 2018 recruiting class?

[JMBuffs]

Those seasons should happen 3 to 4 times a decade, not once a decade. Hcmm is on Pace for once a decade.

In 8 seasons of Head Coaching experience he has had two 10 win seasons...so not sure how he is on pace for once a decade.

Last season was disappointing for sure, but got to be an improvement from where we came from.

 

[hawg1]

I'll take the contrarian position to whatever Hawg1 took .

This should frighten you. Note where CU ranks on how recruits view CFB brands.

http://picksixpreviews.com/how_to_win_in_recruiting.html

 

[Darth Snow]

In 8 seasons of Head Coaching experience he has had two 10 win seasons...so not sure how he is on pace for once a decade.

Last season was disappointing for sure, but got to be an improvement from where we came from.

Let me clarify: He is on pace for 1 in a decade at CU if you take into account mediocre at best recruiting. Looking at things in the best possible light entering into year 6, you could say he's on pace for 2 in a decade. He's also on pace for 8 losing seasons. Not good enough.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Good thing our government is showing fiscal restraint, causing increasing spending and borrowing quickly might raise interest rates substantially.

 

[Duff Man]

In 8 seasons of Head Coaching experience he has had two 10 win seasons...so not sure how he is on pace for once a decade.

Last season was disappointing for sure, but got to be an improvement from where we came from.

His successful season at SJSU is largely irrelevant to his current tenure at CU.

Improvement from 2013 is a non-standard. Why are we still using that as a qualifier?

 

[JMBuffs]

His successful season at SJSU is largely irrelevant to his current tenure at CU.

Improvement from 2013 is a non-standard. Why are we still using that as a qualifier?

Because I believe it is an indicator of head coaching ability and tend to use data to project outcomes. It's not like I am pulling data from HCMM as an assistant coach or positional coach.

It also helps slant my hopes that HCMM is leading us in the right direction.

I see a lot of the negative projections as a reaction to a disappointing season last year, and I too was disappointed, but we are not too far removed from CU being legitimately discussed in the National College Playoff picture.

 

[Buffnik]

If we look at in 3-year blocks, I think that's a fair way to evaluate MacIntyre.

2013-2015 saw a record of 10-27 (2-25).

2016-2017 sits at 15-11 (10-8) with a very troubling 2017 at 5-7 (2-7). If 2018 is like 2017, it turns that 2016 record into a major outlier. But if it results in 7-5 (5-4) or 8-4 (5-4) along with whatever the bowl result might be, then I think we can say that HCMM took the program to a new level in his end block of time here. I think that should buy him a third block to see if he'll take it to a higher level in the next period of his tenure. Especially given the fact that it would also be a case of his most recent 3 recruiting classes also having been at a higher level than his first 3 year (assuming the results don't inexplicably dip in 2019).

To me, the 2018 season is an absolute tipping point year. I think it can earn another 3 year term or it can result in CU needing to go in a different direction.

 

[Duff Man]

Because I believe it is an indicator of head coaching ability and tend to use data to project outcomes. It's not like I am pulling data from HCMM as an assistant coach or positional coach.

It also helps slant my hopes that HCMM is leading us in the right direction.

I see a lot of the negative projections as a reaction to a disappointing season last year, and I too was disappointed, but we are not too far removed from CU being legitimately discussed in the National College Playoff picture.

You have to take the whole picture into account, not just the rosiest aspects.

 

[Darth Snow]

You have to take the whole picture into account, not just the rosiest aspects.

picking and choosing data to project outcomes is baaaaad

 

[BuffNut]

I dont understand how when looking at MM head coaching record you can simply say "he has had 1 winning season in.....". It is never that simple. To me that is like saying a car accelerating to 100 from a stop was only going 100 mph for 1 second out of 5. He showed at SJSU that it took a couple years to get up to speed, same held true at CU for the most part save for 2017. We don't know if he can get back to 100, but the time he accelerated from a stop needs to be in context, and not "1 winning season out of 5"

 

[JMBuffs]

You have to take the whole picture into account, not just the rosiest aspects.

You're the one asking me to not include 3 of his 8 years of HC experience, calling it irrelevant...isn't that part of the whole picture?

 

[The Alabaster Yak]

His successful season at SJSU is largely irrelevant to his current tenure at CU.

Improvement from 2013 is a non-standard. Why are we still using that as a qualifier?

I think the starting point of judgment in both performance and recruiting should be 2015. The first year the team had shown serious improvement and competitiveness on the field, and MM is going into "year 4" since that season, which is a pretty standard judgment year for college coaches. Taking things from that point...

Recruiting - 69th, 35th, 52nd
Performance - 4-9 (1-8), 10-4 (8-1), 5-7 (2-7)

Average recruiting class is 52nd and total record of 19-20 (11-16) with one bowl appearance. He's a .500 coach overall and below average in the Pac 12 to this point. Any other P5 program would need to see at least a 7-8 win season in 2018 to keep a HC like this around, so CU should be no different.

 

[hawg1]

If we look at in 3-year blocks, I think that's a fair way to evaluate MacIntyre.

2013-2015 saw a record of 10-27 (2-25).

2016-2017 sits at 15-11 (10-8) with a very troubling 2017 at 5-7 (2-7). If 2018 is like 2017, it turns that 2016 record into a major outlier. But if it results in 7-5 (5-4) or 8-4 (5-4) along with whatever the bowl result might be, then I think we can say that HCMM took the program to a new level in his end block of time here. I think that should buy him a third block to see if he'll take it to a higher level in the next period of his tenure. Especially given the fact that it would also be a case of his most recent 3 recruiting classes also having been at a higher level than his first 3 year (assuming the results don't inexplicably dip in 2019).

To me, the 2018 season is an absolute tipping point year. I think it can earn another 3 year term or it can result in CU needing to go in a different direction.

Good post.

But is that trajectory consistent with the goals outlined by RG in the Strategic Plan? I don’t think RG wrote those goals that specifically just to have something on paper and put in away for dust to collect.

I hope those goals are real and he holds MM accountable. Otherwise, why have goals?

 

[Duff Man]

You're the one asking me to not include 3 of his 8 years of HC experience, calling it irrelevant...isn't that part of the whole picture?

It matters, but not very much. Why would you assign equal value to his days at SJSU when judging his success at CU?

We are not talking about him just starting at CU anymore. We can judge him on his CU record alone going forward.

 

[jizzrag85]

This should frighten you. Note where CU ranks on how recruits view CFB brands.

http://picksixpreviews.com/how_to_win_in_recruiting.html

I’ve been saying this for months.

 

[BuffNut99]

Back to topic briefly: my thoughts on the 2018 class is that USC, who is the team we need to try to catch, pulled even farther ahead of us.

 

[hawg1]

UCLA recruited big people.

Kelly said that’s because big people beat little people. Some rangy playmakers. Bunch of 6’4” recruits.

 

[JMBuffs]

Taking off the admittedly rosiest glasses...

I am disappointed that we couldn't obtain a higher ranked class building off of our 2016 season. I believe Chev (or HCMM) stated that the impact of the current season affects next years recruiting class the greatest, so in a vaccuum finishing top 25 in 2016 should have equaled a top 25 recruiting class in 2018...and it fell short.

 

[FLounder]

Not too shabby.

 

[GoldenSkier]

CU is slowly adapting to the PAC-12. Modern college football is a lot different than it was even 8 years ago. Social media and the overall exposure these guys can get is changing. MM did a solid job this year, yea it could've been better but considering the bad season, loss of notable coaches and the scandal that occurred last winter, he didn't do a terrible job. I'm not sure if he is the coach to turn us around but I'd take two more years of him improving the structure of the team than a new coach with a turnover class at this point. I think MM has the potential to turn CU into a top-25 team, mainly due to his ability to develop players.

 

[GoldenSkier]

It's like we are in PAC-12 purgatory

 

[CUFan]

Back to topic briefly: my thoughts on the 2018 class is that USC, who is the team we need to try to catch, pulled even farther ahead of us.

This. Admittedly USC has a great class, but I’ve seen too many years of mostly poor recruiting (losing ground to most of the PAC). No comment on whether MikeMac should be the coach, how long he should be here or how he’s done.

 

[Not Sure]

Are we he players in this years class better than the players they are replacing?

I’d say that they are. To my way of thinking, when the players that are coming in are better than the ones that are going out, the trajectory is positive. Continue to do that, and we will find ourselves in a very good spot before too long. College football fans are remarkably impatient. Just keep improving and I’ll be satisfied. MM started here with classes in the 70’s. Now they’re in the 40’s. As long as in another couple years we manage the 20’s, that’s as good as we should realistically expect. We have it in us to return to national prominence, but the damage done by the two previous coaching staffs made that job a very long and painful process.

 

[Buffnik]

Are we he players in this years class better than the players they are replacing?

I’d say that they are. To my way of thinking, when the players that are coming in are better than the ones that are going out, the trajectory is positive. Continue to do that, and we will find ourselves in a very good spot before too long. College football fans are remarkably impatient. Just keep improving and I’ll be satisfied. MM started here with classes in the 70’s. Now they’re in the 40’s. As long as in another couple years we manage the 20’s, that’s as good as we should realistically expect. We have it in us to return to national prominence, but the damage done by the two previous coaching staffs made that job a very long and painful process.

I'd actually say that the damage done by the previous 2 coaching staffs pales in comparison to the way the AD resources were gutted and facilities were allowed to lapse during the last few years of the Barnett era. It took a long time for CU to accept that it takes more than a good coach and pretty scenery to be a top program. I was skeptical that things would ever get fixed on facilities and the AD resources to have competitive organizational size with competitive pay scales. The thing that makes me the most excited these days is that CU now has the infrastructure to be great again and doesn't need a miracle from a HC to make that happen.

 

[DBT]

Well said.

The "next year's class HAS to be better" narrative on signing day is a fun Allbuffs tradition.

There is a reason for this fun tradition.

 

[Not Sure]

I'd actually say that the damage done by the previous 2 coaching staffs pales in comparison to the way the AD resources were gutted and facilities were allowed to lapse during the last few years of the Barnett era. It took a long time for CU to accept that it takes more than a good coach and pretty scenery to be a top program. I was skeptical that things would ever get fixed on facilities and the AD resources to have competitive organizational size with competitive pay scales. The thing that makes me the most excited these days is that CU now has the infrastructure to be great again and doesn't need a miracle from a HC to make that happen.

Yes. The re-engagement of the administration has been crucial. Without it, we’d be dead in the water now.

 

[cu62nu36]

CU fanbase == LSU fanbase.

 

[BuffLuke80]

I hope we can all agree that we'd be happier if CU was signing 20 blue chip recruits every year instead of hoping that the coaches are doing such a good job of evaluating, developing and scheming that a bunch of our low to mid 3* recruits end up performing like blue chippers in their college careers.

You and me both. **** the offseason.

 

[JOEinDenver]

Time to enjoy spring camp.

 

[241Volcanos]

Let me clarify: He is on pace for 1 in a decade at CU if you take into account mediocre at best recruiting. Looking at things in the best possible light entering into year 6, you could say he's on pace for 2 in a decade. He's also on pace for 8 losing seasons. Not good enough.

Throw out the first 3 seasons where he turned around the worst program in D1 and he gets 10 wins about every other year.