It’s the same questions they haven’t been able to answer since March.
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2020 CU football season POSTPONED until Nov 6th?
- Thread starter Jens1893
- Start date
It’s the same questions they haven’t been able to answer since March.
No, Kansas. We have no delays. State board punted to the districts to decide. No state championships though from what I understand.
Dominos are going to fall.. all division 1 NCAA football will like move to a Spring schedule. They could have Jan - Mar 12 week schedule and a mid April bowl season, wrapping up nicely just before the NFL draft.
Plus, lots of high school football moves to spring, so a 3rd high school recruit commitment day is added in Spring so kids that show something in their senior year spring football seasons have a shot at getting recruited.
Plus, lots of high school football moves to spring, so a 3rd high school recruit commitment day is added in Spring so kids that show something in their senior year spring football seasons have a shot at getting recruited.
That's the biggie - no one knows what long covid looks like yet or how bad your initial infection has to be for the long term effects to be harmful. If guys who had a minor cold start showing up with heart damage, we're suddenly in brand new territory.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
As fun as it would be, I doubt we'll see bowls in the spring.
Disappointing to see that Joel Klatt is one of em
Serious question: who's worse - someone like Klatt who is probably actually arguing because it hurts him financially, or some ordinary jerk who just doesn't want his fall Saturdays ruined?
He and Clay Travis have been wrong for months, but still developed their rabid following
I don’t think that’s the motivating factor for Klatt. If it were, I might like him a bit more than I do, which isn’t much.
Klatt might be the best college football TV analyst in the country. He‘s incredibly well-prepared for every broadcast, with very insightful and honest commentary. He’s also a CU grad.
Why is it that don’t you like him?
^^^This
Wait, Klatt went to CU?
And he's a huge germophobe. How about a little consistency, Klatt?
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Disagree to an extent-I think we'll have the CFP or a reasonable facsimile thereof......but are we going to get the bowls that CU might participate in if they get to 5-5? No.
Joel Klatt and Clay Travis. Oy.
I pulled all the data directly from the CDC and John Hopkins dashboards:
COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics
Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.www.cdc.gov
Testing - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented public health and economic crises. In the coming weeks and months, viral tests for the presence of COVID-19 infection as well as serological tests for antibodies and potential immunity will be critical to measure the spread of the disease...coronavirus.jhu.edu
I thought I made this clear, but now have a better appreciation of what I’m up against. I used the data at hand and will concede that my estimates could be way off. Even if SARS-CoV2 is 50X more dangerous than the data suggest that means 1 player is likely to die.
I’m not saying that’s acceptable, but I tried to be conservative (I think it’s likely >10% of CFB players will suffer serious brain injuries) and the risk from CTE is still THOUSANDS of times higher. Inform the players of the risk, have them sign a waiver, and build them a statue if they kick the bucket (just kidding don’t freak out).
But your math/reasoning still sucks. Ever heard of sampling error? I used the data from 328M people (5M confirmed cases) and you tried to argue that because 27/882 MLB players (3%) tested positive that my estimates were off. Shut some teams down if you have to, but the numbers don’t lie. If only 3% of CFB test positive then I overestimated the danger.
I take your presentation of your back of the envelope calculations here to be what you see as the most likely scenario. I'm not disregarding the possibility that a full CFB season would be no worse than what you describe; I'm saying what you lay out is much closer to a best case scenario and is minimizing the true risk. If you were to say, "based at what it looks like, we wouldn't expect 100s of players to die of COVID-19," I'd probably agree with the interpretation.
The MLB anecdotes are to illustrate a potential worst case scenario that would be worse than what you described. If there are zero more MLB COVID cases for the rest of the season you arrive at the 3% that you just came up with; obviously, seeing zero cases in the 8 weeks that follow the 27 that occurred in the first two weeks is not a worst case scenario. If you want to engage in a good faith discussion, it is bad practice to obviously distort the argument presented to you; I'll try to be more explicit going forward to minimize that possibility.
What the Cardinals and Marlins example illustrates, is that a team of healthy young men that travel, practice, and play together can see up to 60% of them contract COVID in as little as a week. As the season goes on, maybe we see only another 4 or 5 teams experience similar outbreaks with a few sporadic cases on other teams that don't spread and 10-15% of MLB players get infected this season so we're in the ballpark of your estimate. Maybe we see almost every team catch an infection that blooms into an outbreak and 30-45% of MLB players get infected. My point is not that your estimate is an impossible outcome, it's that there is no reason to be certain that 15% represents a reasonable ceiling for an outcome worth considering.
The biggest question I have is, where does your case fatality rate of 0.0001-0.0002% come from? Here's a reported CFR of 0.5% (would translate to 0.05% based on how you decided to 10x the number of cases for your cumulative incidence estimate) for the 20-29 year old cohort or 0.1% for the 10-19 year old cohort. SOURCE
Even if we take the lowest CFR we can derive from this data and use it in your scenario (10x as many cases), we'd be going with 0.001%, which is 100x higher than what you're using.
I can pull numbers from reasonable sources and make some unqualified assumptions and say, as many as 30% of players could end up infected because college players will be more irresponsible than MLB players, and play a much higher contact sport in larger teams where they will be more cramped on the sidelines and using facilities in the locker room in a higher density; and that we could see an IFR (infected fatality rate) of maybe 0.025% (half of the rate on the table above) which means that 0.0075% of college football players would be expected to die if we played a season, that works out to about 1 player. However, that's just a silly first run through of the numbers that could be way high or way low.
I gather you will most likely argue that my fear mongering estimates arrive at a measly number of deaths. We'd probably both agree that if there was a CFB season we shouldn't absolutely expect dozens of kids to die. I just think a more clear eyed view of available information places the best estimate of deaths much higher than what your calculation did. There's a non-trivial chance that we'd see at least 1 COVID-19 death of a CFB player if the P5 teams played a season; I'd also say there's a non-trivial chance that it could be worse in many ways that we wouldn't see from cobbling together some back of the envelope calculations in a non-systematic approach that doesn't construct a proper statistical model.
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jizzrag85
Well-Known Member
Hard to say. The bowls depend on fans being willing and able to travel. They also are timed to fill what would otherwise be empty hotel rooms in most cases.
Based on what we are hearing they would probably fall while K-12 schools are still in session and while most fans are working.
They may though count on pent up desire to get out and finally have fun and a lot of those cities have taken a beating in the tourism sector and would love to try to make some of it up.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Its gonna depend on if the NFL works with CFB on moving the draft back too.
Because covid, or because CU fan?
Heart issue linked to virus drives Power 5 concern
A rare heart condition that could be linked to COVID-19 has been found in several athletes in the Big Ten and other Power 5 conferences.
Not sure if posted right now but for the sake of those kids, let’s just play football video games and be happy with it. We don’t need to be getting COVID-19 as well.