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2020 CU football season POSTPONED until Nov 6th?

Jalapeno said:
www.espn.com

Heart issue linked to virus drives Power 5 concern

A rare heart condition that could be linked to COVID-19 has been found in several athletes in the Big Ten and other Power 5 conferences.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

Not sure if posted right now but for the sake of those kids, let’s just play football video games and be happy with it. We don’t need to be getting COVID-19 as well.
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I think you have an addiction
 
Wouldn’t you think the medial advisory boards would be echoing the same things to the programs? Why would the SEC board say they are still good to go but then the big 10 and pac 12 programs get super freaked out based on what the heard? Seems like someone isn’t doing their job
 
Jens1893 said:
It’s the same questions they haven’t been able to answer since March.
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The same questions, yes. But the answers to those questions keep changing. There’s only so much “what if” you can do when you have very little idea of what the landscape will look like in two, three, six months.

I think the schools did what they needed to do, which was plan for a fall season and keep their options open.
 
A murky day for college football got a bit brighter for those who hope to see the sport on the field in 2020 as an ACC official told CBS Sports on Monday said the conference "absolutely" intends on playing this fall. The comment from a high-ranking source within the league came after an ACC conference call with athletic directors and a similar call involving university presidents.

"We are trying to move forward [with playing] absolutely," the ACC official said.
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cbs link
 
So Big 10 and Pac12 are likely out. Big 12 has no idea what they are doing. SEC and ACC are going to play come hell or high water.

What is the NCAA even for anymore?
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
So Big 10 and Pac12 are likely out. Big 12 has no idea what they are doing. SEC and ACC are going to play come hell or high water.

What is the NCAA even for anymore?
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I think if the big 10 and pac 12 bail then the rest will too, and sources in the sec are saying the same thing. I just don’t think they should cancel right now, delay and see how things go. No reason to rush to judgement right jow
 
One thing I give the Presidents credit for is taking the academic / scientific approach to the decision making. Sure the players want to play, but many of them are to naive to fully understand the risks of COVID-19. People like to compare the other risks inherent in football like permanent injury, CTE, concussions, etc. But they fail to discount that these are known risks and are largely dependent on the individual players style of play, their training, and their own history. A new and novel virus is something that no one really knows what the long term effects will be. Thus it is impossible to know what the risk will be. The ongoing medical studies and research are providing an early peak at some of these effects. The risk is not dependent on style of play and can't be mitigated without fundamentally altering the game. The presidents are weighing these long term health and safety risks to the players against the short term financial and emotional suffering of not playing. In the end they will follow medical advice, as that is their nature to eliminate unknown risk in exchange for a known set of hardships.
 
Shldr2Shldr said:
So Big 10 and Pac12 are likely out. Big 12 has no idea what they are doing. SEC and ACC are going to play come hell or high water.

What is the NCAA even for anymore?
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the same thing it's always been for: college sports excepting the FBS.
 
Robert Sorell said:
I take your presentation of your back of the envelope calculations here to be what you see as the most likely scenario. I'm not disregarding the possibility that a full CFB season would be no worse than what you describe; I'm saying what you lay out is much closer to a best case scenario and is minimizing the true risk. If you were to say, "based at what it looks like, we wouldn't expect 100s of players to die of COVID-19," I'd probably agree with the interpretation.

The MLB anecdotes are to illustrate a potential worst case scenario that would be worse than what you described. If there are zero more MLB COVID cases for the rest of the season you arrive at the 3% that you just came up with; obviously, seeing zero cases in the 8 weeks that follow the 27 that occurred in the first two weeks is not a worst case scenario. If you want to engage in a good faith discussion, it is bad practice to obviously distort the argument presented to you; I'll try to be more explicit going forward to minimize that possibility.

What the Cardinals and Marlins example illustrates, is that a team of healthy young men that travel, practice, and play together can see up to 60% of them contract COVID in as little as a week. As the season goes on, maybe we see only another 4 or 5 teams experience similar outbreaks with a few sporadic cases on other teams that don't spread and 10-15% of MLB players get infected this season so we're in the ballpark of your estimate. Maybe we see almost every team catch an infection that blooms into an outbreak and 30-45% of MLB players get infected. My point is not that your estimate is an impossible outcome, it's that there is no reason to be certain that 15% represents a reasonable ceiling for an outcome worth considering.

The biggest question I have is, where does your case fatality rate of 0.0001-0.0002% come from? Here's a reported CFR of 0.5% (would translate to 0.05% based on how you decided to 10x the number of cases for your cumulative incidence estimate) for the 20-29 year old cohort or 0.1% for the 10-19 year old cohort. SOURCE

View attachment 38653

Even if we take the lowest CFR we can derive from this data and use it in your scenario (10x as many cases), we'd be going with 0.001%, which is 100x higher than what you're using.

I can pull numbers from reasonable sources and make some unqualified assumptions and say, as many as 30% of players could end up infected because college players will be more irresponsible than MLB players, and play a much higher contact sport in larger teams where they will be more cramped on the sidelines and using facilities in the locker room in a higher density; and that we could see an IFR (infected fatality rate) of maybe 0.025% (half of the rate on the table above) which means that 0.0075% of college football players would be expected to die if we played a season, that works out to about 1 player. However, that's just a silly first run through of the numbers that could be way high or way low.

I gather you will most likely argue that my fear mongering estimates arrive at a measly number of deaths. We'd probably both agree that if there was a CFB season we shouldn't absolutely expect dozens of kids to die. I just think a more clear eyed view of available information places the best estimate of deaths much higher than what your calculation did. There's a non-trivial chance that we'd see at least 1 COVID-19 death of a CFB player if the P5 teams played a season; I'd also say there's a non-trivial chance that it could be worse in many ways that we wouldn't see from cobbling together some back of the envelope calculations in a non-systematic approach that doesn't construct a proper statistical model.
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Nice work, but this situation isn't only about death, as the B1G report shows. This whole discussion shows what happens when you latch onto an idea and then go searching for data to back it up.
 
onealcd said:
I think if the big 10 and pac 12 bail then the rest will too, and sources in the sec are saying the same thing. I just don’t think they should cancel right now, delay and see how things go. No reason to rush to judgement right jow
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Yeah, I've maintained that you postpone until you can't postpone anymore. I mean if data and health officials deem it safe to start in December, then start in December.

I do think if they were a little more transparent then people wouldn't be fishing for whatever narrative they want. Right now, everyone is throwing **** against a wall to fit their narrative.
 
The most confusing part is what advice did the medical experts have in the ACC, they have plenty of great med schools/programs like the big 12 and pac 12 but came to a different conclusion? I understand the SEC because they basically Only have Florida and vandy But where is the disconnect coming from with the ACC. I think the pac 12 and big 10 should definitely start sharing information with them to get a better grasp on their thought process.
 
onealcd said:
The most confusing part is what advice did the medical experts have in the ACC, they have plenty of great med schools/programs like the big 12 and pac 12 but came to a different conclusion? I understand the SEC because they basically Only have Florida and vandy But where is the disconnect coming from with the ACC. I think the pac 12 and big 10 should definitely start sharing information with them to get a better grasp on their thought process.
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Yeah, this tells me one of two things. Either the pac medical officials are not sharing this info or the acc officials are ignnoring this info. Both scenarios are scary and part of the reason why we are in this mess to begin with.
 
like everyone, i am going to be super bummed if the p12 shuts it down and even more bummed if other conferences play.

that said, the p12 presidents are taking a prudent path that puts student safety ahead of football. you have to go with what you know at the time.

the b10 will do the same, which will make the whining of the fuskers even more enjoyable.

acc decision isn't being driven by science or healthcare opinions, neither is the sec's. the b12, as usual, has internal competing interests.

have to put the welfare of the student athletes first even if it might be an overly conservative and financially consequential move.
 
onealcd said:
Wouldn’t you think the medial advisory boards would be echoing the same things to the programs? Why would the SEC board say they are still good to go but then the big 10 and pac 12 programs get super freaked out based on what the heard? Seems like someone isn’t doing their job
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Post the Med Adv reports.
 
Liver said:
like everyone, i am going to be super bummed if the p12 shuts it down and even more bummed if other conferences play.

that said, the p12 presidents are taking a prudent path that puts student safety ahead of football. you have to go with what you know at the time.

the b10 will do the same, which will make the whining of the ****ers even more enjoyable.

acc decision isn't being driven by science or healthcare opinions, neither is the sec's. the b12, as usual, has internal competing interests.

have to put the welfare of the student athletes first even if it might be an overly conservative and financially consequential move.
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In addition to Conference Med Adv reports, I’d like to see community spread, testing, hospital resource capacities for each CFB city/town. Plus ongoing university testing and cases.
 
hawg1 said:
In addition to Conference Med Adv reports, I’d like to see community spread, testing, hospital resource capacities for each CFB city/town. Plus ongoing university testing and cases.
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yeah, me too.

the argument for playing, near as i can tell, basically goes: hey they are probably safer here in a controlled environment where we are taking measures and they have immediate access to care.

but, the truth is, we don't know if that assertion holds water, especially considering the factors you mention.

we DO know that not playing is the only FOR SURE way to not see student athletes become sick and spread the virus from playing football.
 
onealcd said:
The most confusing part is what advice did the medical experts have in the ACC, they have plenty of great med schools/programs like the big 12 and pac 12 but came to a different conclusion? I understand the SEC because they basically Only have Florida and vandy But where is the disconnect coming from with the ACC. I think the pac 12 and big 10 should definitely start sharing information with them to get a better grasp on their thought process.
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speculating, but I'd guess the medical information is only one part of the equation -- and we're just guessing at what information the Pac has. But I'm assuming that other than medical information, political, financial, feasibility of implementing mitigations and legal would all be factored in as well.

e.g. it could be that one of the considerations with the Pac is something like "since teams in our conference would have to fly to nearly every road game, playing the season is medically riskier for us than other conferences"

or even

e.g. [and I'm guessing] "since California's liability laws are more plaintiff-friendly than most states, there's more legal and financial risk for the Pac than other conferences"
 
Obviously player and community safety should be the priority, but having a season doesn’t make any sense financially for these schools right now. You have what, 25-30 athletic departments that actually turn a profit each year? Takeout football gameday revenue and I’m sure that number drops closer to 10. With Title IX, a school can’t only field a football team. So you have all these other sports that normally would be subsidized by football revenue having to have the same safety protocols and testing that will end up costing millions in addition to large sums already being spent on the general student population. Add in potential liability and a likely decrease in state funding over the next few years and it just doesn’t seem feasible to me.

College football has become so divorced from the mission of universities in the name of money. Take away the money and how can anyone justify having a fall season for what, their personal entertainment?
 
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