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Official 2022 Fall Camp Thread

The Alabaster Yak said:
I guess over a 5 year period, excluding 2020, when the program's record was 10-4, 5-7, 5-7, 5-7, and 4-8 across 3 different coaching staffs, they kind of were who their record says they were, which over that period, was a team with an average record of 5.8 - 6.2, probably good enough for ~40th in the country, which would be in line with their recruiting rankings.
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Agree to disagree.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
Do you have specific statistical rankings you're referring to?
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Sp+ is generally what I use. Look at 2017 for example. 5-7, great. Our best win was a home win against Cal, a team with a losing record. Our second-best win was against a crappy CSU team, in a game in which they outgained us, but lost the turnover battle. Other wins: Northern Colorado, 2-10 Texas St, 1-11 Oregon St (which was a last-minute comeback win but they clearly played better). That team was absolute dog ****. In absolutely no way was that a top 50 team. SP+ had us at 84 which feels about right. 2018 was better, but still pretty bad. SP+ had us at 58, and our best win by far was against 6-6 ASU.
 
J.R. Ewing said:
Sp+ is generally what I use. Look at 2017 for example. 5-7, great. Our best win was a home win against Cal, a team with a losing record. Our second-best win was against a crappy CSU team, in a game in which they outgained us, but lost the turnover battle. Other wins: Northern Colorado, 2-10 Texas St, 1-11 Oregon St (which was a last-minute comeback win but they clearly played better). That team was absolute dog ****. In absolutely no way was that a top 50 team. SP+ had us at 84 which feels about right. 2018 was better, but still pretty bad. SP+ had us at 58, and our best win by far was against 6-6 ASU.
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Do you have a link to the sp+ rankings? Can't seem to find a specific site for it
 
Buffnik said:
247 team recruiting ranks on the Composite:

2019: CU #44; best MWC (BSU) #54
2020: CU #36; best MWC (BSU) #64
2021: CU #64; best MWC (SDSU) #62
2022: CU #47; best MWC (BSU) #62
2023 (so far): CU #42; best MWC (CSU) #64

It is not true. CU would be, by far, the deepest and most talented team in the MWC.
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Do they adjust those numbers for all the players that transferred out?
 
J.R. Ewing said:
They removed everything after 2018 after Bill Connelly left for ESPN.

2018 COLLEGE FOOTBALL DEFENSIVE S/P+ RATINGS | Football Outsiders

S&P+ defensive ratings for 2018.
www.footballoutsiders.com www.footballoutsiders.com
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Thanks.

2015 they ranked us 71st with 21 G5 programs ranked ahead. Adjust for P5 only that's 50th
2016 they ranked us 28th with 4 G5 programs ahead. Adjusted for P5 only that 24th
2017 they ranked us 84th with 25 G5 programs ranked ahead. Adjusted for P5 only that's 59th.
2018 they ranked us 58th with 16 G5 programs ranked ahead. Adjusted for P5 only that's 42nd.

The average adjusted numbers over that 4 year span is 43.75. Seems pretty in line with the record analysis.
 
Buffnik said:
247 team recruiting ranks on the Composite:

2019: CU #44; best MWC (BSU) #54
2020: CU #36; best MWC (BSU) #64
2021: CU #64; best MWC (SDSU) #62
2022: CU #47; best MWC (BSU) #62
2023 (so far): CU #42; best MWC (CSU) #64

It is not true. CU would be, by far, the deepest and most talented team in the MWC.
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Coaching matters

Edit: I was talking about winning the conference, not magical recruiting rankings.
 
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J.R. Ewing said:
Not just SP+. Look at Sagarin rankings which hold up pretty darn well predictively.

He had that somewhat better 2018 squad at 72nd.

College football team ratings 2018 - Jeff Sagarin Ratings

sagarin.usatoday.com sagarin.usatoday.com
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Adjusted for P5

2016 24th
2017 52nd
2018 59th
2019 49th
2021 60th

Avg 5 year = 48.8

No matter how you spin it, CU falls in that 40-50 range among P5 programs on an average basis across the last 5 years, which is in line with their recruiting rankings. If you remove 2016, they fall to 55th, which is 10 spots lower than the initial ranking I put them tied with in the record analysis. End of the day as a P5 program, CU has recruited in the bottom third for years, and the results on the field have matched that.
 
That’s a lot of G5 programs with far less resources ranked ahead of us each year. Almost like we’re not allocating the money effectively or hiring competent coaches.

We’ve been doing less with less for so long there’s no reason for people to part with their hard earned cash until they can at least get mediocre results with what they have
 
J.R. Ewing said:
Sp+ is generally what I use. Look at 2017 for example. 5-7, great. Our best win was a home win against Cal, a team with a losing record. Our second-best win was against a crappy CSU team, in a game in which they outgained us, but lost the turnover battle. Other wins: Northern Colorado, 2-10 Texas St, 1-11 Oregon St (which was a last-minute comeback win but they clearly played better). That team was absolute dog ****. In absolutely no way was that a top 50 team. SP+ had us at 84 which feels about right. 2018 was better, but still pretty bad. SP+ had us at 58, and our best win by far was against 6-6 ASU.
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SP+ and FPI probably best sources to use. Adjusting for SOS is essential.
 
LesGrossman said:
That’s a lot of G5 programs with far less resources ranked ahead of us each year. Almost like we’re not allocating the money effectively or hiring competent coaches.

We’ve been doing less with less for so long there’s no reason for people to part with their hard earned cash until they can at least get mediocre results with what they have
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It's a lot of G5 programs playing a lot of mediocre to bad G5 teams. There are also FCS programs in the top 20-40 as well, and no, North Dakota State wasn't the 19th best team in the entire country in 2018. I don't care if those metrics claim they are adjusting for SOS and opponent, it's still a G5 player making a play or not making a play against another G5 player that determines the the data going into the statistics. You can't compare that to a P5 player making or not making a play against another P5 player and then saying the G5 player would have the same outcome vs the P5 player across an entire season.
 
J.R. Ewing said:
You're reaching Yak. Teams that recruit in the 40s should make bowl games more often than once every 15 years.
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Yes, I agree with the once every 15 years part, but I see a lot of Arizona, Texas Tech, Rutgers, Maryland, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Duke, etc showing up in the 40s. Teams that maybe average 1 bowl game every 3-4 years. That's recruiting that gets you a lot of 5-7 type records, which was my initial point.
 
leftybuff said:
Dorrell has a vision. the team is building chemistry, GPA's are good and power clean numbers are unreal.

In other words, if you are enjoying staying away, you are probably good to keep doing so.

Someone will PM you if circumstances warrant.
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Just hope that PM doesn’t come from Burrito, cause you don’t want those circumstances to develop.
 
Buffs have the day off today and will be in pads tomorrow & Friday before the Saturday scrimmage. Any good bingo boards for the post scrimmage presser?
 
Liver said:
man, from the handful of reports i have glanced through, it sounds like we are ****ing locked and loaded for the season-- maybe that twitter guy is right!
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Just imagine what it must be like as a Husker fan...getting excited for the only thing that matters in the state.
 
Dorrell mentioned the media could attend the scrimmage on Saturday. Should hopefully get some meaningful info
 
patebuff said:
Dorrell mentioned the media could attend the scrimmage on Saturday. Should hopefully get some meaningful info
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Ummm. The media covering CU football is not that swift (nor impartial). I would discount anything they say.
 
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