CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Starting it now
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2012-13 Bubble Watch
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
Starting it now
They had no chance with their RPI.
whatthebuff
Club Member
Sounds like fun, kick his ass sea bass.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Buffs are fresh off a HUGE win at Stanford to near the brink of safety. Time for Buff fans to sit back and relax for Thursday night's bubble games, which includes our next opponent...
Detroit at Temple: Owls are 19-8 (8-5) RPI 41st. Temple is on the right side of things -just barely- after three straight wins. Now they step OOC for a game against a sneaky tough Detroit team that is 19-10 and 2nd in the Horizon League (this was postponed on Dec. 28). This is going to be a tough game, but if Temple can win, it will be a nice boost (Detroit's RPI is 60th). Lunardi's most recent update has Temple as his 4th-to-last team in, so obviously there's not really any wiggle room when you're right on the line like that. This is a must win for Temple. After this, they've got two horrendous opponents in A-10 doormats Rhode Island and @ Fordham, before finishing with a huge home game against VCU. This is definitely a game to keep an eye on.
North Carolina at Clemson: Heels are 19-8 (8-5) RPI 21st. Carolina is nearing lock-status. Still lack any real elite wins, but do have good wins over UNLV, NC State and UVA. Avoided bad losses for the most part, but did lose to Texas. Only a complete collapse would keep UNC out. Clemson is struggling, but Littlejohn is always a tough place to play. After this, Carolina finishes with Florida State, @ Maryland, Duke. Getting upset at Littlejohn would not be wise, because while they'll beat FSU at home, a visit to a desperate Maryland team and then hosting Duke is obviously two tough games. However, the reality is that even 1-3 will get UNC in.
Utah State at Louisiana Tech: LA Tech 24-3 (14-0) RPI 51st. This is a team some people are talking about as a potential at-large if they slip up in the WAC Tourney. However, a quick look at their resume tells you all you need to know. Best wins are Southern Miss and Denver. No offense to Denver, but that just doesn't do it. Also have a couple of bad losses, including one to a miserable McNeese State team. Despite the gaudy record, LA Tech simply isn't getting in if Denver, USU or NMSU knocks them off in the WAC Tournament.
Middle Tennessee State at Troy: MTSU 25-4 (17-1) RPI 22nd. MTSU has the gaudy record, but lacks the good wins (best are Ole Miss and UCF). However, 3 of their losses are top 50, and the one bad loss was an 18-9 #136 Arkansas State. Of course, were they to need an at-large, it would likely involve another bad loss since the Sun-Belt is so terrible. The lack of any good wins would keep them out, but it's a little odd seeing as St. Mary's is in the field as it currently stands and really doesn't have much more to offer
Duke at Virginia: Virginia 19-8 (8-5) RPI 67th. This is one of the weirdest resumes you'll ever see, and a disagreement between Lunardi and Palm has never been more pronounced. Lunardi has the Hoos in the field (not even in his "Last Four In") while Palm stubbornly refuses to even acknowledge Virginia as a bubble team, let alone near being in the field. Virginia has good wins: North Carolina, @ Wisconsin, NC State, Tennessee, @ Maryland along with a bunch more top 100 wins, but some badddd losses: Old Dominion (neutral), Delaware, @ George Mason, @ Wake Forest, @ Georgia Tech, @ Clemson. I'm not as against the RPI as some, but UVA is a clear case of the RPI having it wrong. They had a bunch of injuries in those bad losses, and have been playing very solid basketball lately. This is their big chance for an "elite" win (although @ Wisconsin looks pretty dang impressive) and it would boost their RPI in a huge way. After Duke, the Hoos finish with @ Boston College, @ Florida State, Maryland. I personally don't think they need to win out, but they do need to go 3-1. At the very least, 3-1 would keep their hopes alive heading into the ACC Tournament, if not make them fairly safe.
Utah at Cal -- Cal 18-9 (10-5) RPI 46th. Cal's 5 straight wins have put them on the right side of things and feeling good as they finish up the regular season with 3 home games: Utah, Colorado, Stanford. While Cal is currently in, they cannot afford a sub-150 loss to Utah. While Cal's recent run is impressive and they've picked up some solid wins, they have zero good OOC wins. One of the major strengths of Cal's resume is that they have no bad losses, and this isn't the time to start if they want to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. A loss to Utah wouldn't completely ruin their hopes or anything, I'm not implying that, but it would put them right back on the line and make their next two games near must-wins.
Missouri at South Carolina: Missouri 19-8 (8-6) RPI 43rd. Mizzou is in pretty good shape, not really "on the bubble" right now, but they're sitting 8-6 in a weak conference (6th place) and thus don't have as much wiggle room as some might believe. They've avoided any truly bad losses thus far (although they do have some "meh" losses @ aTm, @ LSU to name a couple). They have good wins over Florida, Illinois and VCU. It would take a lot for Mizzou to fall out, but a loss @ South Carolina would be really damaging and people would start to question Mizzou. They are BAD on the road, 1-7 in true road games with the only win over a Mississippi State team that is one of the worst power conference teams in college basketball history. After @ South Carolina, they finish with LSU, Arkansas, @ Tennessee. Basically, there's not much opportunity to really gain anything from these remaining games, there's only opportunity to either "not lose", or screw up. This is one to keep an eye on, given Missouri's road woes.
Oregon State @ Oregon: Ducks are 22-6 (11-4) RPI 48th. Oregon is basically in, but I'll throw it on here for formality. If Oregon State knocked them off in Eugene, and they then went and lost @ Colorado and @ Utah, would they be in trouble? Their RPI would be in a nasty place, and two horrible losses (Oregon State and Utah) to end the season would NOT look good. However, they're sitting with 22 wins and 1st in the Pac-12 (tiebreaker over UCLA). They're getting in.
Detroit at Temple: Owls are 19-8 (8-5) RPI 41st. Temple is on the right side of things -just barely- after three straight wins. Now they step OOC for a game against a sneaky tough Detroit team that is 19-10 and 2nd in the Horizon League (this was postponed on Dec. 28). This is going to be a tough game, but if Temple can win, it will be a nice boost (Detroit's RPI is 60th). Lunardi's most recent update has Temple as his 4th-to-last team in, so obviously there's not really any wiggle room when you're right on the line like that. This is a must win for Temple. After this, they've got two horrendous opponents in A-10 doormats Rhode Island and @ Fordham, before finishing with a huge home game against VCU. This is definitely a game to keep an eye on.
North Carolina at Clemson: Heels are 19-8 (8-5) RPI 21st. Carolina is nearing lock-status. Still lack any real elite wins, but do have good wins over UNLV, NC State and UVA. Avoided bad losses for the most part, but did lose to Texas. Only a complete collapse would keep UNC out. Clemson is struggling, but Littlejohn is always a tough place to play. After this, Carolina finishes with Florida State, @ Maryland, Duke. Getting upset at Littlejohn would not be wise, because while they'll beat FSU at home, a visit to a desperate Maryland team and then hosting Duke is obviously two tough games. However, the reality is that even 1-3 will get UNC in.
Utah State at Louisiana Tech: LA Tech 24-3 (14-0) RPI 51st. This is a team some people are talking about as a potential at-large if they slip up in the WAC Tourney. However, a quick look at their resume tells you all you need to know. Best wins are Southern Miss and Denver. No offense to Denver, but that just doesn't do it. Also have a couple of bad losses, including one to a miserable McNeese State team. Despite the gaudy record, LA Tech simply isn't getting in if Denver, USU or NMSU knocks them off in the WAC Tournament.
Middle Tennessee State at Troy: MTSU 25-4 (17-1) RPI 22nd. MTSU has the gaudy record, but lacks the good wins (best are Ole Miss and UCF). However, 3 of their losses are top 50, and the one bad loss was an 18-9 #136 Arkansas State. Of course, were they to need an at-large, it would likely involve another bad loss since the Sun-Belt is so terrible. The lack of any good wins would keep them out, but it's a little odd seeing as St. Mary's is in the field as it currently stands and really doesn't have much more to offer
Duke at Virginia: Virginia 19-8 (8-5) RPI 67th. This is one of the weirdest resumes you'll ever see, and a disagreement between Lunardi and Palm has never been more pronounced. Lunardi has the Hoos in the field (not even in his "Last Four In") while Palm stubbornly refuses to even acknowledge Virginia as a bubble team, let alone near being in the field. Virginia has good wins: North Carolina, @ Wisconsin, NC State, Tennessee, @ Maryland along with a bunch more top 100 wins, but some badddd losses: Old Dominion (neutral), Delaware, @ George Mason, @ Wake Forest, @ Georgia Tech, @ Clemson. I'm not as against the RPI as some, but UVA is a clear case of the RPI having it wrong. They had a bunch of injuries in those bad losses, and have been playing very solid basketball lately. This is their big chance for an "elite" win (although @ Wisconsin looks pretty dang impressive) and it would boost their RPI in a huge way. After Duke, the Hoos finish with @ Boston College, @ Florida State, Maryland. I personally don't think they need to win out, but they do need to go 3-1. At the very least, 3-1 would keep their hopes alive heading into the ACC Tournament, if not make them fairly safe.
Utah at Cal -- Cal 18-9 (10-5) RPI 46th. Cal's 5 straight wins have put them on the right side of things and feeling good as they finish up the regular season with 3 home games: Utah, Colorado, Stanford. While Cal is currently in, they cannot afford a sub-150 loss to Utah. While Cal's recent run is impressive and they've picked up some solid wins, they have zero good OOC wins. One of the major strengths of Cal's resume is that they have no bad losses, and this isn't the time to start if they want to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. A loss to Utah wouldn't completely ruin their hopes or anything, I'm not implying that, but it would put them right back on the line and make their next two games near must-wins.
Missouri at South Carolina: Missouri 19-8 (8-6) RPI 43rd. Mizzou is in pretty good shape, not really "on the bubble" right now, but they're sitting 8-6 in a weak conference (6th place) and thus don't have as much wiggle room as some might believe. They've avoided any truly bad losses thus far (although they do have some "meh" losses @ aTm, @ LSU to name a couple). They have good wins over Florida, Illinois and VCU. It would take a lot for Mizzou to fall out, but a loss @ South Carolina would be really damaging and people would start to question Mizzou. They are BAD on the road, 1-7 in true road games with the only win over a Mississippi State team that is one of the worst power conference teams in college basketball history. After @ South Carolina, they finish with LSU, Arkansas, @ Tennessee. Basically, there's not much opportunity to really gain anything from these remaining games, there's only opportunity to either "not lose", or screw up. This is one to keep an eye on, given Missouri's road woes.
Oregon State @ Oregon: Ducks are 22-6 (11-4) RPI 48th. Oregon is basically in, but I'll throw it on here for formality. If Oregon State knocked them off in Eugene, and they then went and lost @ Colorado and @ Utah, would they be in trouble? Their RPI would be in a nasty place, and two horrible losses (Oregon State and Utah) to end the season would NOT look good. However, they're sitting with 22 wins and 1st in the Pac-12 (tiebreaker over UCLA). They're getting in.
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If they would've won in Pauley, then won out against USC and Zona, I think there would've been a case for them getting in. It was a long shot, but UCLA officially crushed their hopes.
Wow, I didn't even realize OU lost this game until I saw this post. They were up 20 with about 6-8 minutes left. :wtf:
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Total Sooner collapse, went to overtime with a ridiculous floater buzzer beater.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Getting ready to head to UVA/Dook. Should be a good one, not really sure what to expect. Line is a pick 'em. Have a feeling UVA will come to play, and Bennett has coached very tough against Duke thus far. First and only meeting this year. Looking forward to it. Win or lose, **** Duke.
Junction
Club Member
Yeah, they slid the start of our game over to ESPiN"News". Damned Texass....
I'm thinking that we could be right in the same range as the land thieves when it comes to seeding for the big dance, so I was glad to see them drop that one...
Figured you might go, that should be a fun atmosphere.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Gonna be a great atmosphere of 15k. Nothing gets them riled up quite like Duke. There's hatred that goes back to the Ralph Sampson days. They know this is crucial for their hopes of dancing. If you watch, keep an eye on Joe Harris. One of the best players you don't hear about because he doesn't play for a team from the state of North Carolina. Hopefully they make it interesting, you just never know when you're playing Duke...may be in foul trouble by the first timeout.
Oh yeah I'll be watching. I know who JH is, he can play. Have fun, rush the court if need be lol, better get some pics for us tho.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Taking a picture every time K whines to the ref, already up to 9
So much for Duke getting calls
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
How bout them HOOS, Never seen K so pissed. I have 34 pictures of him bitching at refs
He had plenty reason to be. Harris was as advertised. Ru in the mob Cville?
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Virginia now 20-8 (10-5) RPI 58th. They're on the right side of things now. Wins: Duke, @Wisconsin, NC State, North Carolina. The bad early season losses are being negated, but the key is to not add anymore. They face a tricky road stretch of @ Boston College, @ Florida State before finishing with Maryland. They'll need to be extremely careful, another sub-100 loss is something that resume does not need, and BC plays everyone tough at home (lost to Duke by 1). If Virginia wins 1 of these 2 road games, and then beats Maryland, they're in, IMO. They certainly pass the eye test. They are a Big Dance caliber team and their style makes them capable of going deeper into the tournament than you'd expect. As a side note, Joe Harris should be ACC POY. 36 points tonight. What can you say? The elite players rise to the occasion for big games.
Missouri took care of business at South Carolina, avoided a terrible loss. Mizzou now 20-8 (9-6) RPI 37th. They're close to being a lock, just need to make sure they don't screw up royally in their final 3: LSU, Arkansas, @ Tennessee.
Cal beats Utah for their 6th straight win. Bears improve to 19-9 (11-5) RPI 46th. Remaining games are Colorado and Stanford. Cal is on the brink of safety, although I suppose losing 2 straight to end the season would raise some questions, especially if they messed up and lost early in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Middle Tennessee State won at Troy. MTSU 26-4 (18-1) RPI 22nd. Gaudy record, only 1 loss outside of top 50 (151 Ark. State)...but...severe lack of good wins (beat Ole Miss, that's it). Despite the RPI, they'll most certainly get rejected if they slip up and don't get the auto-bid for the Sun-Belt.
North Carolina wins at Clemson. Heels 20-8 (10-5) RPI 18th. Heels are safe. They might lack a real elite win, but a 20 win Tar Heel team with a winning record simply isn't going to get the snub. Simple as that.
Temple beat Detroit in a nail-biter. Owls 20-8 (8-5) RPI 39th. Temple stays on the right side of things, now it's time to make sure they don't suffer a devastating loss to Rhode Island or Fordham before that huge game against VCU to end the regular season.
Missouri took care of business at South Carolina, avoided a terrible loss. Mizzou now 20-8 (9-6) RPI 37th. They're close to being a lock, just need to make sure they don't screw up royally in their final 3: LSU, Arkansas, @ Tennessee.
Cal beats Utah for their 6th straight win. Bears improve to 19-9 (11-5) RPI 46th. Remaining games are Colorado and Stanford. Cal is on the brink of safety, although I suppose losing 2 straight to end the season would raise some questions, especially if they messed up and lost early in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Middle Tennessee State won at Troy. MTSU 26-4 (18-1) RPI 22nd. Gaudy record, only 1 loss outside of top 50 (151 Ark. State)...but...severe lack of good wins (beat Ole Miss, that's it). Despite the RPI, they'll most certainly get rejected if they slip up and don't get the auto-bid for the Sun-Belt.
North Carolina wins at Clemson. Heels 20-8 (10-5) RPI 18th. Heels are safe. They might lack a real elite win, but a 20 win Tar Heel team with a winning record simply isn't going to get the snub. Simple as that.
Temple beat Detroit in a nail-biter. Owls 20-8 (8-5) RPI 39th. Temple stays on the right side of things, now it's time to make sure they don't suffer a devastating loss to Rhode Island or Fordham before that huge game against VCU to end the regular season.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
BYU has been off the bubble, but their RPI is still 60th, and trail Gonzaga 65-62, 46 secs remaining.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Gonzaga holds off BYU, 70-65 in Provo. Not really a bubble game, because BYU was toast before this, but this does mean the Zags will be the new #1 in the country in all likelihood.
Was a fun game to watch as I have always hated Duke, and yes, it goes back to the Sampson days! Congrats to the Wahoos a team I have been a fan of since I was a little kid.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Awesome college basketball game, nice to get my fix for a big-time live game. Joe Harris is truly special. 36 points. Deserves ACC POY What a dominating performance by UVA, they led the entire game. Not sure I saw that coming. They're a bit of a whine and cheese crowd at times, but they get rowdy when they need to, and tonight was obviously one of those nights. Krzyzewski was up to his usual whining (whined/berated refs 34 times compared to 2 times by Bennett). However, Duke's players are now in on the whining as well, which is something they used to not do. After nearly every call, they whined (ironic because Curry pushes off every single time and it's never called), and eventually they got T'd up for it. This puts UVA in good shape, but by no means are they a lock. They do have an impressive amount of top 50, top 100 wins. They're clearly playing Big Dance caliber basketball. They need to be careful though, because some of those bad early losses have left very little margin for error. They visit Boston College next, which is going to be tricky. BC is VERY tough at home (lost to Duke and Miami each by 1) and Florida State is just one of those locations UVA has always struggled at (every team has one of those). They then finish at home against Maryland, a team UVA throttled in College Park, but a team that is fighting desperately to make the Dance as well. Basically, in these final 3, I think UVA will go 2-1. That should keep them in good shape, but they might want to get a win in the ACC Tournament just to be safe. UVA's OOC SOS was really bad (even with wins @ Wisconsin and over Tennessee), and we all know the Committee loves to use that as a reason to snub. Still, they're legitimately fighting for 2nd in the ACC now. Duke is 11-4, UVA 10-5, this was their only meeting so UVA owns the tiebreaker, and Duke's remaining schedule is quite tough. If UVA does get in the Dance, they're going to be a dangerous team. Bennett's style is NOT easy to prepare for on short notice. Long term, he's definitely building something special. Like our Buffs, next season should be a real breakout year for UVA. Hoos should be top 20, if not pushing top 10. Virginia had some elite teams in the 70's, 80's (Ralph!) and 90's (and won the ACC regular season as recently as 2007). With their top notch facilities, an excellent coach, and a talent rich region, it appears the sleeping giant is awakening once again.
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Would rep ya but have to spread it around.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Lunardi's most recent update. Not for a whole bracket, but a few tweaks from tonight's games.
1 seeds: Indiana (Midwest), Gonzaga (West), Kansas (South), Miami (East).
Have major questions about Miami's viability as a 1 seed. Maybe for now until they lose at Duke. There's no way the Canes are staying as a 1, IMO.
Last Four In: Ole Miss, Villanova, Temple, Kentucky
First Four Out: Tennessee, Boise State, Baylor, Alabama
I'd be concerned as a Kentucky fan right now, seeing as their next game is @ Arkansas. The Hogs are downright tough in Fayetteville.
Alabama @ Ole Miss will be a nice simple elimination game next week.
Villanova's lost at Seton Hall may have been the killer. Two final games are @Pitt, Georgetown. Only need to win 1 to keep themselves in OK shape, but do you see a win in either of those two? I don't. May be able to save themselves with a strong conference tournament, though.
Baylor stopped the bleeding with a win at WVU. KSU visits Waco Saturday, a win over them would put the Bears on the right side of the line for the time being, albeit with a land mine road game at Texas and then a visit from Kansas remaining.
Boise State's final three are CSU, @ UNLV, SDSU. 2-1 winning the home games could very likely do the trick and have them feeling good about their chances heading into the MWC Tournament, not convinced they'd need a 3-0 finish.
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/77701/bracket-update-duke-drops-from-1-line
1 seeds: Indiana (Midwest), Gonzaga (West), Kansas (South), Miami (East).
Have major questions about Miami's viability as a 1 seed. Maybe for now until they lose at Duke. There's no way the Canes are staying as a 1, IMO.
Last Four In: Ole Miss, Villanova, Temple, Kentucky
First Four Out: Tennessee, Boise State, Baylor, Alabama
I'd be concerned as a Kentucky fan right now, seeing as their next game is @ Arkansas. The Hogs are downright tough in Fayetteville.
Alabama @ Ole Miss will be a nice simple elimination game next week.
Villanova's lost at Seton Hall may have been the killer. Two final games are @Pitt, Georgetown. Only need to win 1 to keep themselves in OK shape, but do you see a win in either of those two? I don't. May be able to save themselves with a strong conference tournament, though.
Baylor stopped the bleeding with a win at WVU. KSU visits Waco Saturday, a win over them would put the Bears on the right side of the line for the time being, albeit with a land mine road game at Texas and then a visit from Kansas remaining.
Boise State's final three are CSU, @ UNLV, SDSU. 2-1 winning the home games could very likely do the trick and have them feeling good about their chances heading into the MWC Tournament, not convinced they'd need a 3-0 finish.
http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/77701/bracket-update-duke-drops-from-1-line
Gonzaga is gonna be #1, geez. Maybe they'll put them on tv now, I've seen them like 3 times.
What happened with Sampson and Duke? Did they fight or something?
I got him for you.
Regarding Harris, he isn't eligible for ACC poy since he doesn't play for UNC.
He can play but u might be right. He's one of the better players I've seen. He knows his game for sure.