Lt.Col.FrankSlade
Well-Known Member
The no charge call was pretty blatantly bad.
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2012-13 Bubble Watch
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
7 fouls by my count
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Seton Hall just knocked off Villanova. Devastating loss for Nova. They now need another big win, but it's going to be tough as they visit Pittsburgh and host Georgetown. They may have just proven themselves for the NIT team they are.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Need to win 2 of their final 3 to be safe in all likelihood. @Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, @West Virginia.
HuskerHater
Well-Known Member
fify
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Sucks for ISU, but a potential competitor for seeding (or bubble, god forbid), loses, and it helps our RPI. **** it.
BuffAlum2007
Well-Known Member
Classy there at the end KU...:rolling_eyes:
Las horrible as that was, nothing compares to the travesty in Tucson.
You're right.
It doesn't look like this knocked them onto the wrong side of the bubble. They're right on the edge, though. I just don't know how a team can lose to Columbia and beat Louisville in the same season.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Tuesday's bubble games:
Indiana at Minnesota: Gophers are 18-9 (6-8). RPI 17th. They have excellent computer numbers. It's going to be very very hard for them to fall out of the field, but they're seemingly making an attempt at it, losing 8/11. Obviously a win over Indiana would lock them in. Schedule gets easier after this, but there are landmines: Penn State, at Nebraska, at Purdue. Many Gopher fans are losing their patience with Tubby. Minnesota is in good shape still thanks to genius OOC scheduling, but needs to be careful.
Auburn at Alabama: Tide is 18-9 (10-4). RPI 62nd. Their bubble essentially popped with their loss at LSU. Still have games at Florida and Ole Miss, though. If they won both of those, they'd have a shot. Right now they lack good wins (best two are Kentucky and Villanova) and have bad losses (Tulane, Mercer, Auburn). Just a whole bunch of 'meh'. Padding your record against SEC doormats doesn't get you in, Bama has tried this in the past and met a similar fate.
Florida at Tennessee: Vols are 16-10 (8-6). RPI 56th. First mention of them on here, but they've won 5 in a row to get on the fringes of the conversation. Like their other SEC bubble brothers, they lack good wins (Best are Kentucky and Alabama), but they've avoided bad losses for the most part, except for a loss to Georgia. Like so many others, their hopes hinge on beating the Gators.
Indiana at Minnesota: Gophers are 18-9 (6-8). RPI 17th. They have excellent computer numbers. It's going to be very very hard for them to fall out of the field, but they're seemingly making an attempt at it, losing 8/11. Obviously a win over Indiana would lock them in. Schedule gets easier after this, but there are landmines: Penn State, at Nebraska, at Purdue. Many Gopher fans are losing their patience with Tubby. Minnesota is in good shape still thanks to genius OOC scheduling, but needs to be careful.
Auburn at Alabama: Tide is 18-9 (10-4). RPI 62nd. Their bubble essentially popped with their loss at LSU. Still have games at Florida and Ole Miss, though. If they won both of those, they'd have a shot. Right now they lack good wins (best two are Kentucky and Villanova) and have bad losses (Tulane, Mercer, Auburn). Just a whole bunch of 'meh'. Padding your record against SEC doormats doesn't get you in, Bama has tried this in the past and met a similar fate.
Florida at Tennessee: Vols are 16-10 (8-6). RPI 56th. First mention of them on here, but they've won 5 in a row to get on the fringes of the conversation. Like their other SEC bubble brothers, they lack good wins (Best are Kentucky and Alabama), but they've avoided bad losses for the most part, except for a loss to Georgia. Like so many others, their hopes hinge on beating the Gators.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I think Lunardi is wrong on this one, it's his Big East fetish. I'm calling him out. They need to win at Pitt or beat Georgetown....or have a monster conference tournament IMO.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Xavier up 31-20 on Memphis at half. This is more about keeping an eye on Memphis because they're a potential opponent of CU for a first game. Xavier's bubble has seemingly burst, their RPI is atrocious, but they do have a string of strong opponents to finish
I was just going to post something. Memphis passes the eyeball test, but they've beaten no one. Losing this one by double digits would really hurt the perception of C-USA. Would hurt Memphis's seeding and may cost Southern Miss a Dance card.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Minnesota's computer numbers make it hard to imagine them not getting in, but they're 6-8 in the B1G and have lost 8/11. They're trying to lock it up with a home win over Indiana. 58-56 Gophers 4:46
Memphis has fought back, now trails 49-47 at Xavier
Memphis has fought back, now trails 49-47 at Xavier
Compare them to Iowa, who has a similar record, but the difference maker by far is the non-conference schedule. Iowa's non-conference schedule is reminiscent of ours from a few years ago.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Genius OOC scheduling. You look closely on their schedule and you see that even the supposed "cupcakes" are NOT cupcakes.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Alabama defeats Auburn, 61-43. Tide now 19-9 (11-4). Feasting on SEC cellar dwellers doesn't get you a bid, though. 3 games left, @ Florida, @ Ole Miss, Georgia. Must win all 3 to have a chance.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Minnesota beats Indiana, so Minnesota is a lock.
Xavier beat Memphis. Tough loss for Memphis. They'll get in, and should, but they have no good wins.
Xavier beat Memphis. Tough loss for Memphis. They'll get in, and should, but they have no good wins.
I figured Teets would post in this thread lol. That was a good game, big win for Minnesota.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Tennessee upsets Florida, 64-58 in Knoxville, officially joining the logjam of SEC bubble teams. Vols are now 17-10 (9-6) RPI 53rd. Good wins: Florida, Wichita State, Kentucky. Bad losses: Georgia
They still need to win out to have a decent shot to get in. @ Georgia, @ Auburn, Mizzou.
They still need to win out to have a decent shot to get in. @ Georgia, @ Auburn, Mizzou.
I'm starting to wonder if Florida has been pulled down by the level of its competition. There's a balance and it's hard to figure out how that will play out in the Dance, though. Could be that teams like Michigan State and Indiana will be worn down instead of just battle tested. That's happened to a lot of Big East teams in past years. I'm afraid to pick Florida, though.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Florida is worrying me, as well. Believe one of their key players has been out lately though, including tonight. If they get back to where they were in December and January, they can win it all. They better get it figured out, because they're about to face another desperate bubble team, Alabama, in Gainesville on Saturday (this is for 1st in the SEC), and they still have a trip next Saturday to face Kentucky in Lexington (another game that could be for 1st in the SEC)
And on another note, Mizzou is now sitting tied for 6th in the SEC. I know their overall body of work is much more impressive the Ole Miss/Alabama/Kentucky/Tennessee crowd, but they had better be careful.
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CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Wednesday's bubble watch:
First and foremost, our Buffs have a crucial game at Stanford. 9pm MST. Our Buffs aren't on the bubble at the moment, and let's keep it that way.
Drake at Indiana State: Sycamores are 17-11 (9-7). RPI 58th. They've beaten Miami (FL) and Wichita (and fellow bubble teams Ole Miss and Creighton). They're a real trendy team to have on the bubble this year, despite losing 3/4. I honestly don't see it. I see a boatload of bad losses..like, so many that it's hard to even list them all. Just really don't think the 4th or 5th MVC team deserves a bid, not with all these bad losses. Any hopes they have involve winning their final two games (Drake, @ Evansville) and then having a strong MVC tournament.
Maryland at Georgia Tech: Terps are 19-8 (7-7) RPI 68th. This one is pretty simple, Maryland has to win. They've beaten Duke, but not much else. They had escaped the bad losses until they went and lost at Boston College right after they beat Duke. They now have two land mine road games at Georgia Tech and at Wake Forest before a difficult finish with North Carolina and at Virginia. Their RPI is terrible, only 7-7 in the ACC, meaning another bad loss would be a bubble burster.
Creighton at Bradley: Creighton 22-7 (11-5) RPI 45th. I've looked forward to watching Creighton struggle and mentioning them here :thumbsup:. They've got wins over Wisconsin and Cal, but they've lost 4/6, including a crucial game last weekend at St. Mary's. This is a team that looks extremely shaky recently. If they lose at Bradley, they're going to be in serious, serious trouble. Only one game after that, when a surging Wichita State visits.
Nevada at Boise State: Boise 18-8 (6-6) RPI 48th. Major long shot, but haven't lost recently so I won't drop them yet. Have wins over UNLV and Creighton, bad losses to Nevada and Utah. Would need to win out to have a chance. Remaining schedule: Nevada, Colorado State, @ UNLV, San Diego State.
Mississippi State at Kentucky: Wildcats are 19-8 (10-4) RPI 46th. Got a crucial home win over Mizzou in OT to keep their hopes alive. Still probably need to win out. Miss State is remarkably bad, but it gets trickier after this with road trips to Arkansas and Georgia, before Florida visits Rupp to wrap things up. Would not at all be surprised to see UK lose a couple and fall short. In fact, I might be more surprised if they didn't. Arkansas is a home court hero, and Florida isn't going to keep losing.
Baylor at West Virginia: Baylor 16-11 (7-7). RPI 64th. This is Baylor's last stand. They've run out of wiggle room after 3 straight losses, 6/8. They look like they've quit, we'll see. They can't afford a 4th straight loss. If they survive this, the schedule doesn't get any easier: Kansas State, @ Texas, Kansas.
SIU-Edwardsville at Belmont: Belmont 22-6 (12-2) RPI 22nd. This is one to keep an eye on. Belmont is likely going to get the auto-bid from the OVC, but teams like Murray State are lurking, so it's no guarantee. They scheduled really wisely and have a bunch of top 100 wins. No great wins, but you see where their RPI is. Have avoided bad losses for the most part, worst are Northeastern and Tennessee State, and neither of those are as bad as they sound. Neither is below 150, and Tenn State could even get in the top 100. Certainly need to win out, which they very likely will.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss. Rebs are 20-7 (9-5). RPI 56th. You know the drill with these SEC bubble teams by now. Lack good wins, best are Mizzou and Tennessee. Lost at South Carolina last week, which really damaged their hopes as they had avoided bad losses until that. They need to win out: aTm, @ Miss State, Alabama, @ LSU. The problem is even winning out still won't provide a marquee win or boost the RPI. The other problem is they aren't playing well lately and winning out is unlikely, a loss to Alabama or @ LSU seems imminent. This is a team right on the line (Lunardi's last team in according to his most recent update).
St. Mary's @ Pepperdine. St. Mary's 24-5 (12-2) RPI 43rd. They got a big home win over Creighton this past weekend for their only decent win of the season, yet are currently in if the season ended today. I have to question it a bit, because a win over Creighton really isn't particularly impressive anymore (good chance it won't even be a top 50 win on Selection Sunday), and they do have some questionable losses to Georgia Tech and Pacific (sub 100). I recognize that their record is gaudy, but I guess I'm missing how beating a collapsing Creighton makes a resume. My thoughts aside, the bracketologists seem to think they're very likely in if they take care of business. Needless to say, they have to win their final two games: @ Pepperdine, Santa Clara...and should probably get to the WCC finals to be safe (and to avoid another bad loss). If they don't, it will raise some serious questions that I seem to be the only one asking at the moment.
Arizona State @ UCLA. Sun Devils 20-8 (9-6) RPI 88th. That home loss to Washington was devastating. ASU's RPI is really, really bad. Buffs know first hand that the Committee HATES weak OOC's, and ASU's is one of the weakest in the nation. Still, they've got roadies at UCLA and Arizona remaining, along with at USC. If you're ASU, that's probably honestly best. If they were facing a bunch of doormats, wins likely wouldn't get them in anyway, so facing Arizona and UCLA actually gives them a chance to boost the resume and have a chance to get in. In reality, their bubble probably burst with the loss to Washington at home. However, Lunardi still has them just out (yes, even with an RPI of 88). I'll keep mentioning the Sun Devils until they lose another game or two.
First and foremost, our Buffs have a crucial game at Stanford. 9pm MST. Our Buffs aren't on the bubble at the moment, and let's keep it that way.
Drake at Indiana State: Sycamores are 17-11 (9-7). RPI 58th. They've beaten Miami (FL) and Wichita (and fellow bubble teams Ole Miss and Creighton). They're a real trendy team to have on the bubble this year, despite losing 3/4. I honestly don't see it. I see a boatload of bad losses..like, so many that it's hard to even list them all. Just really don't think the 4th or 5th MVC team deserves a bid, not with all these bad losses. Any hopes they have involve winning their final two games (Drake, @ Evansville) and then having a strong MVC tournament.
Maryland at Georgia Tech: Terps are 19-8 (7-7) RPI 68th. This one is pretty simple, Maryland has to win. They've beaten Duke, but not much else. They had escaped the bad losses until they went and lost at Boston College right after they beat Duke. They now have two land mine road games at Georgia Tech and at Wake Forest before a difficult finish with North Carolina and at Virginia. Their RPI is terrible, only 7-7 in the ACC, meaning another bad loss would be a bubble burster.
Creighton at Bradley: Creighton 22-7 (11-5) RPI 45th. I've looked forward to watching Creighton struggle and mentioning them here :thumbsup:. They've got wins over Wisconsin and Cal, but they've lost 4/6, including a crucial game last weekend at St. Mary's. This is a team that looks extremely shaky recently. If they lose at Bradley, they're going to be in serious, serious trouble. Only one game after that, when a surging Wichita State visits.
Nevada at Boise State: Boise 18-8 (6-6) RPI 48th. Major long shot, but haven't lost recently so I won't drop them yet. Have wins over UNLV and Creighton, bad losses to Nevada and Utah. Would need to win out to have a chance. Remaining schedule: Nevada, Colorado State, @ UNLV, San Diego State.
Mississippi State at Kentucky: Wildcats are 19-8 (10-4) RPI 46th. Got a crucial home win over Mizzou in OT to keep their hopes alive. Still probably need to win out. Miss State is remarkably bad, but it gets trickier after this with road trips to Arkansas and Georgia, before Florida visits Rupp to wrap things up. Would not at all be surprised to see UK lose a couple and fall short. In fact, I might be more surprised if they didn't. Arkansas is a home court hero, and Florida isn't going to keep losing.
Baylor at West Virginia: Baylor 16-11 (7-7). RPI 64th. This is Baylor's last stand. They've run out of wiggle room after 3 straight losses, 6/8. They look like they've quit, we'll see. They can't afford a 4th straight loss. If they survive this, the schedule doesn't get any easier: Kansas State, @ Texas, Kansas.
SIU-Edwardsville at Belmont: Belmont 22-6 (12-2) RPI 22nd. This is one to keep an eye on. Belmont is likely going to get the auto-bid from the OVC, but teams like Murray State are lurking, so it's no guarantee. They scheduled really wisely and have a bunch of top 100 wins. No great wins, but you see where their RPI is. Have avoided bad losses for the most part, worst are Northeastern and Tennessee State, and neither of those are as bad as they sound. Neither is below 150, and Tenn State could even get in the top 100. Certainly need to win out, which they very likely will.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss. Rebs are 20-7 (9-5). RPI 56th. You know the drill with these SEC bubble teams by now. Lack good wins, best are Mizzou and Tennessee. Lost at South Carolina last week, which really damaged their hopes as they had avoided bad losses until that. They need to win out: aTm, @ Miss State, Alabama, @ LSU. The problem is even winning out still won't provide a marquee win or boost the RPI. The other problem is they aren't playing well lately and winning out is unlikely, a loss to Alabama or @ LSU seems imminent. This is a team right on the line (Lunardi's last team in according to his most recent update).
St. Mary's @ Pepperdine. St. Mary's 24-5 (12-2) RPI 43rd. They got a big home win over Creighton this past weekend for their only decent win of the season, yet are currently in if the season ended today. I have to question it a bit, because a win over Creighton really isn't particularly impressive anymore (good chance it won't even be a top 50 win on Selection Sunday), and they do have some questionable losses to Georgia Tech and Pacific (sub 100). I recognize that their record is gaudy, but I guess I'm missing how beating a collapsing Creighton makes a resume. My thoughts aside, the bracketologists seem to think they're very likely in if they take care of business. Needless to say, they have to win their final two games: @ Pepperdine, Santa Clara...and should probably get to the WCC finals to be safe (and to avoid another bad loss). If they don't, it will raise some serious questions that I seem to be the only one asking at the moment.
Arizona State @ UCLA. Sun Devils 20-8 (9-6) RPI 88th. That home loss to Washington was devastating. ASU's RPI is really, really bad. Buffs know first hand that the Committee HATES weak OOC's, and ASU's is one of the weakest in the nation. Still, they've got roadies at UCLA and Arizona remaining, along with at USC. If you're ASU, that's probably honestly best. If they were facing a bunch of doormats, wins likely wouldn't get them in anyway, so facing Arizona and UCLA actually gives them a chance to boost the resume and have a chance to get in. In reality, their bubble probably burst with the loss to Washington at home. However, Lunardi still has them just out (yes, even with an RPI of 88). I'll keep mentioning the Sun Devils until they lose another game or two.
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