Yeah, but to repeat: why are so many of them transferring a second time?
My bet is that after getting stiffed in College Station, a lot of them (and/or their families) ended up in meaningful debt and they needed to take the biggest bag regardless of what they thought of the school. Once they got the credit cards paid off, they are now free to make a decision that accounts for more than just $.
I would say the guys transferring a 2nd time is that they probably did not get the playing time, thus exposure at their 2nd school. CU had Willie Gaines enter the portal yesterday, he was a smaller guy, and it appears Dylan Edwards, Horn, and Kevin Mathis to some degree, sort of filled his role. Also, the other transfer receivers jumped him. So he faced limited playing time at KR/PR or WR.
You are probably right to an extent with the A&M NIL, if they overspent (i.e. credit cards) and the multi-year A&M NIL did not work out, thus debt. So if they transferred and did not see the field, the NIL for this year may be diminished or gone. Plus, they are against it if they still have the NFL dream--you need at least 1 year of prime playing time. I only see NIL being somewhat guaranteed on any level for just a small fraction of players. It is probably 1 year deals. I don't think USC, Oklahoma and a few others would bleed so many good HS recruits, if NIL was guaranteed for every year they are at the school. I think NIL for many is a signing bonus of sorts.
To Medford's point, I don't know how a players union or certification for NIL would work. I suppose the Court's or Feds could force a players union, but that could dilute NIL across all the sports. It would no longer be individual. That is sort of what unions do. IMO, the NCAA would really have to step up and standardize everything. They have not stepped up in years.
IMO, NIL is
one factor to these guys, however many still have the NFL as the big $$ dream. Also, the driving force of multiple year NIL $$ is probably exposure. This is why I like Prime's approach--sort of maximum exposure for the team/players good and bad. Prime goes out of his way to give props to a bunch of players. No doubt there are bags out there, but if you want a multi-year bag, IMO you have to come in and prove yourself having a legitimate 2-year shot at substantial playing time, thus exposure for NIL purposes and NFL dreams. For this, the portal could be a better option for some teams, as their NIL funds/contracts are more limited in years. I still think once you are an established team, you need to sign more than 6 HS recruits; but there is no sense bloating a HS signing class with 3*'s, if those players expect multi-year NIL. Most HS guys will expect some playing time, and just transfer if they are somewhat buried on the depth chart.