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24-25 MBB Team

I don't see a loss on that schedule.
Go Crazy Wtf GIF
 
A quick look at last year's Big 12 standings and the schedule:

CU should beat WVU, UCF, TCU, ASU, Cincy, and BYU at home.
CU should beat OSU on the road..new coaching staff and complete roster overhaul for the Cowboys.
CU could maybe beat ASU, UCF, Utah, and TCU on the road.
CU could maybe stun Kansas at home.

Minimum of seven B12 wins and maximum of 12 B12 wins.

We won't beat Baylor & Houston at home and Arizona, TT, ISU, and KSU on the road.
 
A quick look at last year's Big 12 standings and the schedule:

CU should beat WVU, UCF, TCU, ASU, Cincy, and BYU at home.
CU should beat OSU on the road..new coaching staff and complete roster overhaul for the Cowboys.
CU could maybe beat ASU, UCF, Utah, and TCU on the road.
CU could maybe stun Kansas at home.

Minimum of seven B12 wins and maximum of 12 B12 wins.

We won't beat Baylor & Houston at home and Arizona, TT, ISU, and KSU on the road.
If we get more than one road conference win next year, I will be pleasantly surprised.

My hope is to split at home. 6-8 league wins total.

Remember to get your tickets now!
 
If we get more than one road conference win next year, I will be pleasantly surprised.

My hope is to split at home. 6-8 league wins total.

Remember to get your tickets now!
This seems about right. 6-7 non-conf wins. 6-7 conf wins. Peg it at 13 total wins with +/- 2 either way.
 
If we get more than one road conference win next year, I will be pleasantly surprised.

My hope is to split at home. 6-8 league wins total.

Remember to get your tickets now!

CU has been great at home under Tad so a split or a 7-5 record is likely. We will probably push the others that we aren’t expected to beat.

We will get run out in Tucson and Ames. Likely Manhattan. Other road games are doable but there will be no excuse for losing in Stillwater despite our history there.
 
The upside of playing such a brutal schedule (Big 12 + Maui neutral games vs top teams) is that if we can get to the Big 12 tournament at 16 wins, our NET will have us in a pretty strong bubble position.

And that Maui tourney could better prepare CU for conference play so that makes me feel more confident of a .500 record or close to it in B12 play.
 
Article on the conference schedule matrix -




Direct link - https://cubuffs.com/news/2024/6/27/mens-basketball-big-12-sets-2024-25-schedule-matrix

"

Big 12 Sets 2024-25 Schedule Matrix​

By: Troy Andre, Associate Director/Athletic Communications

BOULDER –
Home-and-home series with historic rivals Kansas and Iowa State plus visits by a pair of recent NCAA Final Four programs highlight Colorado's return to the Big 12 Conference as the league revealed its 2024-25 men's basketball schedule matrix on Thursday.

Big 12 teams will play 20 conference games broken down by home-and-home series with five opponents and single games with the other 10; five home and five away. Opponents were selected based on a combination of geography, historical results and a poll of the coaches to best balance the schedule in terms of travel and competitiveness. A full Big 12 schedule will be released at a later date.

Along with Kansas and Iowa State, Colorado will play a home-and-home series with former Pac-12 rival Arizona State, TCU and UCF.

Colorado will host 2021 NCAA Final Four participants Baylor and Houston along with BYU, Cincinnati and West Virginia at the CU Events Center this season. The Buffaloes will have road contests at Arizona, Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.

Dates, times and television for all Big 12 games, along with Colorado's nonconference schedule, will be announced at a later date.

Colorado men's basketball season tickets are on sale now at https://cubuffs.evenue.net/events/MBS. The deadline for current season ticket holders to renew their seats for the 2024-25 season is Friday, June 28, at 5 p.m. Renew online here or call our season ticket hotline at 303-492-8282.
"
 
CU has been great at home under Tad so a split or a 7-5 record is likely. We will probably push the others that we aren’t expected to beat.

We will get run out in Tucson and Ames. Likely Manhattan. Other road games are doable but there will be no excuse for losing in Stillwater despite our history there.
Dead-ass, don't even get on the bus for the Ames trip. Forfeit it now.
 
You know you have to win some of those q1 games for them to mean anything, yeah?
Yep. I figure our schedule will give 16-18 opportunities in Q1. Find a way to win 5 and then get a winning record in the 5-8 Q2 games we'll play. Sweep the rest and we'll hit that winning record with a top 60 NET and a chance to Dance with something to play for in the Big 12 tournament.
 
If the B12 has a full 16 team conference tourney after that grind of a season, I think you can forget about having a B12 team in the Final Four this year.
 
Yep. I figure our schedule will give 16-18 opportunities in Q1. Find a way to win 5 and then get a winning record in the 5-8 Q2 games we'll play. Sweep the rest and we'll hit that winning record with a top 60 NET and a chance to Dance with something to play for in the Big 12 tournament.
I think that approach is simply unrealistic.

I do not think our non-con will contain another Q1 opportunity, outside of Maui. Maybe one more on a neutral, but I haven't heard of anything, and that wouldn't be like Tad to schedule that for a year like this. So, going off of last year's KP rankings, we can expect around 15 q1 opps. 3 Neutral (Maui), 5 home (BYU, ISU, KU, UH, and Baylor), 7 road (Zona, Utah, ISU, KU, TCU, Tech, and UCF). Pending opponent, our one game in KC could be one, as well, so maybe 16. The opponents may shuffle, but I'm going off of last year's #s, for reference.

You cannot convince me that we are winning 5 of those q1 games, or that we will win the majority of the other 9 league games we play, or that we will sweep the rest.

Even still, that would not get us into the tournament. Remind me, what seed did Oklahoma -- they of the 46 NET, 4-12 q1, 16-0 qs 2-4 -- get last year? Their exclusion is an outlier, sure, but if you're just hoping for the B12 aggregate alone to get us into the Dance, it is an extremely narrow path that allows for zero mistakes outside of those 16ish q1 games, and even still is not guaranteed.

K-State last year is more of your parallel. 5-8 in q1, split q2 with one slip in q3. They ended up with a NET barely outside the top-70. No rational person discusses a team like that on Selection Sunday. Nor should they. And 5 more q1 losses wouldn't have helped them any.
 
I think that approach is simply unrealistic.

I do not think our non-con will contain another Q1 opportunity, outside of Maui. Maybe one more on a neutral, but I haven't heard of anything, and that wouldn't be like Tad to schedule that for a year like this. So, going off of last year's KP rankings, we can expect around 15 q1 opps. 3 Neutral (Maui), 5 home (BYU, ISU, KU, UH, and Baylor), 7 road (Zona, Utah, ISU, KU, TCU, Tech, and UCF). Pending opponent, our one game in KC could be one, as well, so maybe 16. The opponents may shuffle, but I'm going off of last year's #s, for reference.

You cannot convince me that we are winning 5 of those q1 games, or that we will win the majority of the other 9 league games we play, or that we will sweep the rest.

Even still, that would not get us into the tournament. Remind me, what seed did Oklahoma -- they of the 46 NET, 4-12 q1, 16-0 qs 2-4 -- get last year? Their exclusion is an outlier, sure, but if you're just hoping for the B12 aggregate alone to get us into the Dance, it is an extremely narrow path that allows for zero mistakes outside of those 16ish q1 games, and even still is not guaranteed.

K-State last year is more of your parallel. 5-8 in q1, split q2 with one slip in q3. They ended up with a NET barely outside the top-70. No rational person discusses a team like that on Selection Sunday. Nor should they. And 5 more q1 losses wouldn't have helped them any.
You also have to consider that 2023/24 was anomalous with the number of mid majors that were ranked high on NET and some of the seasons that didn't result in a Dance bid.

There have been a lot of years where we had B12, B1G, SEC and ACC teams who had NETs in the 50s & 60s despite having losing records. I think there's a good chance if we get to the B12T with a winning record, we're in position to be on the bubble and could Dance by making some noise but not needing to win.
 
You also have to consider that 2023/24 was anomalous with the number of mid majors that were ranked high on NET and some of the seasons that didn't result in a Dance bid.

There have been a lot of years where we had B12, B1G, SEC and ACC teams who had NETs in the 50s & 60s despite having losing records. I think there's a good chance if we get to the B12T with a winning record, we're in position to be on the bubble and could Dance by making some noise but not needing to win.
The conversation should be, and ONLY should be, how are we getting to a .500 record. We won't win a game in Maui unless we draw Chaminade the last day. And that win counts for nada. Say we have 8 more non-conference games. A good bet is going 6-2 in those games. That's likely 6-5 in non-conference. In conference play at home let's say we beat ASU, BYU, Cincy, UCF, WV and pull one upset = 6 wins. There are only 3 possible wins on the road - ASU, Utah, OSU. That gets us to 14 wins if all plays out this way.

And also, there are people posting as if the past matters in 2025. REMEMBER: We have zero returning starters, our 6th man is gone as well, and we enter the top 1 or 2 conference in the country. A .500 record would be a success.
 
The conversation should be, and ONLY should be, how are we getting to a .500 record. We won't win a game in Maui unless we draw Chaminade the last day. And that win counts for nada. Say we have 8 more non-conference games. A good bet is going 6-2 in those games. That's likely 6-5 in non-conference. In conference play at home let's say we beat ASU, BYU, Cincy, UCF, WV and pull one upset = 6 wins. There are only 3 possible wins on the road - ASU, Utah, OSU. That gets us to 14 wins if all plays out this way.

And also, there are people posting as if the past matters in 2025. REMEMBER: We have zero returning starters, our 6th man is gone as well, and we enter the top 1 or 2 conference in the country. A .500 record would be a success.
I think we're seeing the record the same way.

You're calling 14 wins as a likely result shaded a bit to the positive.

All I posted was that if 2 of those results flip in our favor then we'd go into the B12T with something to play for to get a postseason bid since we'll have an inflated NET from this schedule.
 
The conversation should be, and ONLY should be, how are we getting to a .500 record. We won't win a game in Maui unless we draw Chaminade the last day. And that win counts for nada. Say we have 8 more non-conference games. A good bet is going 6-2 in those games. That's likely 6-5 in non-conference. In conference play at home let's say we beat ASU, BYU, Cincy, UCF, WV and pull one upset = 6 wins. There are only 3 possible wins on the road - ASU, Utah, OSU. That gets us to 14 wins if all plays out this way.

And also, there are people posting as if the past matters in 2025. REMEMBER: We have zero returning starters, our 6th man is gone as well, and we enter the top 1 or 2 conference in the country. A .500 record would be a success.
Chaminade is no longer a participant in the main tournament.
 
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