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Class ranks by average # of P5 offers (from 2012 on)

manhattanbuf

Club Member
Club Member
The staff did a great job in 2016, they just couldn't sustain it. Not to take away from the leadership of those players, which was indeed special.
2016 was fun but a wad blower. I actually give the coaches less credit for that team’s successes because they weren’t capable of coaching other players to similar heights (or anywhere close). The staff simply kept good players around long enough to gain experience until that point. They couldn’t translate a magic season into results on the recruiting trail and weren’t solid enough coaches to improve future teams.
 

KCM

Club Member
Club Member
I'm late to this, but why not use the median number of offers - it's one of the best ways to deal with outliers distorting the mean?

That little nit aside, great job! Thanks for the effort.

I think the take away is that pretty much any way you measure it, recruiting is taking a meaningful jump under HCMT.
It is a good point and I generally agree, but in this point I don’t think that is the best way to judge a class. I’ll give you an extreme example. Two five player classes, with Class A being clearly better than Class B.

Class A
Player 1 - 10 P5 offers
P2 - 10
P3 - 2
P4 - 2
P5 - 2
Avg Offers - 5.2
Median Offers - 2

Class B
P1 - 2
P2 - 2
P3 - 2
P4 - 1
P5 - 1
Avg Offers - 1.6
Median Offers - 2

IMO, the top players in the class really matter and the average gives weight to your top players (a guy with 10+ offers is usually a borderline 4 star). The rating services use a similar approach... the top players add to the team total ranking much more low 3 star players do. The median approach ends up judging the entire class on one player.
 

WarBuff

Club Member
2016 was fun but a wad blower. I actually give the coaches less credit for that team’s successes because they weren’t capable of coaching other players to similar heights (or anywhere close). The staff simply kept good players around long enough to gain experience until that point. They couldn’t translate a magic season into results on the recruiting trail and weren’t solid enough coaches to improve future teams.
Double like if I could!
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
It is a good point and I generally agree, but in this point I don’t think that is the best way to judge a class. I’ll give you an extreme example. Two five player classes, with Class A being clearly better than Class B.

Class A
Player 1 - 10 P5 offers
P2 - 10
P3 - 2
P4 - 2
P5 - 2
Avg Offers - 5.2
Median Offers - 2

Class B
P1 - 2
P2 - 2
P3 - 2
P4 - 1
P5 - 1
Avg Offers - 1.6
Median Offers - 2

IMO, the top players in the class really matter and the average gives weight to your top players (a guy with 10+ offers is usually a borderline 4 star). The rating services use a similar approach... the top players add to the team total ranking much more low 3 star players do. The median approach ends up judging the entire class on one player.
It's hard not seeing the data (and I really don't want to do the work you did - again, thanks) - but my suspicion is that we both may be right. The median may not show any differentiation between ****ty classes (lots of players with only 1 or 2 offers) - so it might not be helpful in looking at our past performance. But I suspect that it will show differentiation between good classes (everyone has multiple P5 offers). (I'd also only look at the median for the top 20 of the class just to try and standardize between years).
 

pcbuff

Well-Known Member
I agree that the last staff had good X & O guys. They just never recruited at the pace necessary to sustain momentum in the Pac. Still lots of unknowns about the current staff, but the current recruiting class partnered with this late season win give me hope.
 

KCM

Club Member
Club Member
UPDATE

I’ve been curious about the 2020 class, so I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2020. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris (trusting the crystal ball)

Changes from last update. Removed Perkins. Added Berry, MLC, Stacks and J. Harris.

Another note. It’s pretty clear this is the best class since 2008, so I tried to compare based on based on number of offers from 2008, but I don’t trust 247 reported offers in 2008. For example, it shows D. Scott as only having seven offers.
 

Here4hottakes

Active Member
2016 was fun but a wad blower. I actually give the coaches less credit for that team’s successes because they weren’t capable of coaching other players to similar heights (or anywhere close). The staff simply kept good players around long enough to gain experience until that point. They couldn’t translate a magic season into results on the recruiting trail and weren’t solid enough coaches to improve future teams.
Nobody wants to acknowledge the staff member that came and left during the "magic season"? I knew we were in trouble when mike was taking his self-congratulatory media tour instead of coaching and recruiting before the bowl game. And, refusing to give props to the inspirational leader of that team. Stingy defense was the reason for 2016 success, and Mike wasnt about to share the glory.
 

manhattanbuf

Club Member
Club Member
Nobody wants to acknowledge the staff member that came and left during the "magic season"? I knew we were in trouble when mike was taking his self-congratulatory media tour instead of coaching and recruiting before the bowl game. And, refusing to give props to the inspirational leader of that team. Stingy defense was the reason for 2016 success, and Mike wasnt about to share the glory.
That coach made a choice to chase that Nike skrill even though he got loads of props during the magic season. Let’s not kid ourselves: if he really wanted to stay, he would’ve. He chose not to stay. Life goes on.
 

Darth Snow

Hawaiian Buffalo
Club Member
Junta Member
UPDATE

I’ve been curious about the 2020 class, so I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2020. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris (trusting the crystal ball)

Changes from last update. Removed Perkins. Added Berry, MLC, Stacks and J. Harris.

Another note. It’s pretty clear this is the best class since 2008, so I tried to compare based on based on number of offers from 2008, but I don’t trust 247 reported offers in 2008. For example, it shows D. Scott as only having seven offers.
This stat really shows how strong the top of a class is, and I love it.
 

Buffsrock85

****y Mantrum Expert
UPDATE

I’ve been curious about the 2020 class, so I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2020. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris (trusting the crystal ball)

Changes from last update. Removed Perkins. Added Berry, MLC, Stacks and J. Harris.

Another note. It’s pretty clear this is the best class since 2008, so I tried to compare based on based on number of offers from 2008, but I don’t trust 247 reported offers in 2008. For example, it shows D. Scott as only having seven offers.
 

1991 Orange Bowl

Well-Known Member
Another note. It’s pretty clear this is the best class since 2008.
It also goes to show how un-meaningful these rankings are sometimes. That 2008 class (ranked 15th nationally) didn't do jack squat, but look at the 2013 class (ranked 68th nationally), which included Phil Lindsey, Chidobe, Jimmy Gilbert, Sefo, Tedric Thompson, and Bryce Bobo, just to name a few. All were three-star players at best. Now, that's not to say that we should underrecruit or not be excited about obvious talent coming in--clearly recruiting players that other (more successful) programs covet correlates with success. It's just something I noticed.
 

Darth Snow

Hawaiian Buffalo
Club Member
Junta Member
It also goes to show how un-meaningful these rankings are sometimes. That 2008 class (ranked 15th nationally) didn't do jack squat, but look at the 2013 class (ranked 68th nationally), which included Phil Lindsey, Chidobe, Jimmy Gilbert, Sefo, Tedric Thompson, and Bryce Bobo, just to name a few. All were three-star players at best. Now, that's not to say that we should underrecruit or not be excited about obvious talent coming in--clearly recruiting players that other (more successful) programs covet correlates with success. It's just something I noticed.
Using one outlier to discredit the system is a bit strong
 

1991 Orange Bowl

Well-Known Member
But that was not your point. It was the evidence you pointed out that refuted your point.
You people are insufferable. My point was to comment on the success of the 2013 class--a bunch of lightly recruited players that should have been highly recruited--with the dichotomy of the 2008 class, which didn't amount to much. And you have to turn it into THIS IDIOT IS TRYING TO PROVE RANKINGS DON'T MEAN ANYTHING! The binary nature of your retort (why can't there be some grey area in any ****ing post?) is an example of why people that don't comment on online forums don't.
 

Darth Snow

Hawaiian Buffalo
Club Member
Junta Member
You people are insufferable. My point was to comment on the success of the 2013 class--a bunch of lightly recruited players that should have been highly recruited--with the dichotomy of the 2008 class, which didn't amount to much. And you have to turn it into THIS IDIOT IS TRYING TO PROVE RANKINGS DON'T MEAN ANYTHING! The binary nature of your retort (why can't there be some grey area in any ****ing post?) is an example of why people that don't comment on online forums don't.
My man, I said your comment was a bit strong. That's not binary and implies a gray area. What is your problem with that? Are you reading something else?
 

1991 Orange Bowl

Well-Known Member
My man, I said your comment was a bit strong. That's not binary and implies a gray area. What is your problem with that? Are you reading something else?
No, what you said was using an outlier *to discredit the whole system* is a bit strong, which s a binary statement. Either I'm with the system or I'm against it, and does not imply a grey area. But whatever, my man.
 

Darth Snow

Hawaiian Buffalo
Club Member
Junta Member
No, what you said was using an outlier *to discredit the whole system* is a bit strong, which s a binary statement. Either I'm with the system or I'm against it, and does not imply a grey area. But whatever, my man.
My apologies for offending you so greatly with an offhand and mild comment.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
This stat really shows how strong the top of a class is, and I love it.
After seeing the failure of the Hawkins classes (and what's been going on with the Nubs), I'm very skeptical about top-heavy classes. Particularly when they rely heavily on guys that the elite programs have backed away from for whatever reason.

After seeing the failure of the MacIntyre classes, I'm very skeptical about a recruiting plan that focuses from the bottom up.

We need both the blue chips at the top along with a higher floor. Impact dudes, but without the backfill of GPA champions who don't have the size or athleticism to deliver much college football upside.

I think Tucker gets that. He seems to be chasing guys from top to bottom that peer programs want with an emphasis on pulling in some blue chip or on-the-cusp of-blue-chip guys that have national P5 options.

CU will have a consistent Top 15 program if it can consistently sign Top 30 classes. Being on a bit of a geographic island away from the home distractions for most of our athletes builds a tight locker room that is very hard to achieve at places like UCLA that have all those distractions for players who go back to the neighborhood on the weekend.
 

AeroBuff99

Club Member
Club Member
If I was a highly recruited prospect, I wouldn't report a single P5 offer to any service. I would just report all the low end G5 and FCS offers just to **** with everyone.
 

AeroBuff99

Club Member
Club Member
It’s clear from this post that you weren’t in any danger of being a highly recruited high school athlete.
True, also true would be that twitter, facebook, hudl, rivals, scout, etc.. didn't exist and the when coaches asked for tape you had to send them a VHS copy. I am pretty sure the only publicity any highly regarded recruit got was USA Today, or SI plus the local paper that covered the high school.
 
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