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Class ranks by average # of P5 offers (from 2012 on)

I’m thankful for the portal and I think that KD is too. Although it will giveth and taketh, over time.
 
The 2022 # is dropping quickly…

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9ish - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.23 - D. Dixson, V. Venn - Notable: A. Austin (9)
 
KCM said:
The 2022 # is dropping quickly…

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9ish - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.23 - D. Dixson, V. Venn - Notable: A. Austin (9)
Click to expand...
I have a feeling this class is going to end up somewhere just north of 2.0.
 
The 2022 average was as high as 6 (after about 5 commits) and now it’s 3.93 (after 15 commits).

If the next two commits both have 10+ P5 offers (a best case scenario) this class could get back to 2017 levels…
 
KCM said:
The 2022 # is dropping quickly…

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9ish - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.23 - D. Dixson, V. Venn - Notable: A. Austin (9)
Click to expand...
One of these things isn’t like the others
 
Yay!? Shakaun Bowser has nine P5 offers.

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9ish - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.31 - D. Dixson, V. Venn - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9)
 
I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2022. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

Aubrey Smith puts this class on par with the 2017 class (based on this metric, which isn’t perfect).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.65 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9)
 
KCM said:
I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2022. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

Aubrey Smith puts this class on par with the 2017 class (based on this metric, which isn’t perfect).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.65 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9)
Click to expand...
That feels a bit kind, but #s are #s. At least none of the guys in 2022 are injury risk takes.
 
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KCM said:
I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2022. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

Aubrey Smith puts this class on par with the 2017 class (based on this metric, which isn’t perfect).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.65 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9)
Click to expand...
Aside from the first two dumpster fire years, there's one outlier.

I can't quite figure out what was different that year, but whatever it was, we should try and do that again.
 
KCM said:
I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2022. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

Aubrey Smith puts this class on par with the 2017 class (based on this metric, which isn’t perfect).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.65 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9)
Click to expand...
Thank you for doing this. If I may ask, are you updating previous commits if their P5 offers change?
 
KCM said:
I did a quick analysis on the on the average number of P5 offers per class from 2012 - 2022. I used the offers reported by 247 (not perfect), and my analysis was done fairly quickly but I’m sure it’s directional correct. I capped the number of offers used for my average at 10 (so one member of a class with 25 offers doesn’t distort the averages).

Aubrey Smith puts this class on par with the 2017 class (based on this metric, which isn’t perfect).

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.65 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9)
Click to expand...
From that list, our miss rate on players with 10+ offers is insanely high. Guys that never contributed or transferred out.

Carr, Huntley, Moretti, Polley, Little, Antwine, Magnum, Murray, Berry, Harris, Wray.

With Lee, Clayton, and Miller all with a good chance to be added to that list.
 
Updated based on decommits:

2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 5.06 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9)
 
Bad recruiting and bad coaching from 2012 to 2016. 2017 was average. 202o was okay. 2021 impacted by late coaching change and covid. 2022 is average. Even most of the high ranked recruits have turned out to be busts.
 
Last edited:
Kerry slots in as the 3d highest recruit in our class. With the decomitts (low average) and the new commit (decent average), CU is now up to an average of 85.55. It's a nice bump from last year (83.92).

However....

11/12 in the P12 ahead of wazzu. Next closest is OSU, followed by ASU. The gap is a little smaller though.
 
Also, a note about the 2020 class above. The number comes way down if to reactively correct for five of the top members of the class not being on the team anymore (J. Wray, K. Miller, A. Clayton, J. Berry, J. Harris). I think this is what people were referring to when they talk about Tucker taking risks in recruiting.
 
KCM said:
Also, a note about the 2020 class above. The number comes way down if to reactively correct for five of the top members of the class not being on the team anymore (J. Wray, K. Miller, A. Clayton, J. Berry, J. Harris). I think this is what people were referring to when they talk about Tucker taking risks in recruiting.
Click to expand...
Wray was bad luck, Miller was overrated, Clayton could have worked well under different coaching. Harris was the one that was maybe Mel chasing stars. I have to imagine their were red flags on the guy's work ethic.
 
KCM said:
Also, a note about the 2020 class above. The number comes way down if to reactively correct for five of the top members of the class not being on the team anymore (J. Wray, K. Miller, A. Clayton, J. Berry, J. Harris). I think this is what people were referring to when they talk about Tucker taking risks in recruiting.
Click to expand...
What does that class look like if you remove Berry who never enrolled at CU? All the other guys at least got to campus and were here for a year, so I'm not sure I'd say Wray, Miller, Clayton and Harris were taking risks.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
What does that class look like if you remove Berry who never enrolled at CU? All the other guys at least got to campus and were here for a year, so I'm not sure I'd say Wray, Miller, Clayton and Harris were taking risks.
Click to expand...
I shouldn’t have mentioned it because retroactively adjusting class ranks is probably a bad idea (and players leave the program every year). But, remove one of the players with 10+ offers from 2020 and the average is 6.38 (remove three players with 10+ offers = 6.0, remove five = 5.53)
 
Good idea to also have the class rank after 3 years to be able to compare if the coach is really a good recruiter and developer of talent. USC and Texas have had top 10 recruiting classes and have not won national championships in the last 10 years.
 
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KCM said:
So Grant Page has nine P5 offers, but the other recent commitments had CU as their only P5 option. I’ll try to update the numbers at the end of the day.
Click to expand...
No Way What GIF
 
As of this afternoon.


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
 
KCM said:
As of this afternoon.


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
Click to expand...
So basically a class that should be good enough to maintain the status quo.
 
KCM said:
As of this afternoon.


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
Click to expand...
Not an encouraging finish.
 
KCM said:
As of this afternoon.


2012 - AVG 3.88 - Players with 10+ P5 offers Y. Wright, K. Crawley
2013 - 1.95 - None - Notable: S. Liufau (1), T. Thompson (6), P. Lindsay (1)
2014 - 1.5 - None - Notable: S. Fields (5)
2015 - 1.78 - None - Notable: Lynott (8), P. Carr (8)
2016 - 4.1 - Bisharat, Winfree, J. Huntley,
2017 - 4.66 - Moretti, KD Nixon, G. Polley, K. Ray, Viska Shenault, T. Lang, T. Lytle
2018 - 4.26 - I. Antwine, D. Smith
2019 - 4.15 - L. Shenault, J. Mangham, L. Murray Jr.
2020 - 6.54 - B. Lewis, B. Rice, J. Wray, C. Fauria, C. Lee, K. Miller, A. Clayton, C. Gonzalez, J. Berry, J. Harris
2021 - 3.9 - E. Olsen
2022 - 4.84 - D. Dixson, V. Venn, A. Smith - Notable: A. Austin (9), S. Bowser (9), G. Page (9)
Click to expand...
2nd best class in 10 years. Do we consider this an uptick in recruiting?
 
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