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Colorado Basketball Win Shares and Adjusted +/- for the last 5 seasons
- Thread starter jgisland
- Start date
jgisland
Club Member
Everything is updated through the Utah game.
Random thoughts:
Tad's rotations drive me insane, I think Tad is a great coach, recruiter and leading this program into the promise land, but the lineup when SHT, Adams, Chen and Booker are all in at the same time may give me a heart attack. SHT, Chen and Adams need to be sprinkled in with the "core 6 guys" not all in at the same time. This isn't hockey CU doesn't need to play in shifts.
Carlon's Offensive Rating continues to plummet while his % of possessions used continues to increase, look up "forcing it" in the dictionary and that is the definition. He has got to pick it up over the next couple of weeks.
Austin needs play more, maybe this means SHT plays less....just sayin
DarthSnow will enjoy this, but I was shocked (shocked) when I looked at the % of Minutes Played Category and saw that Nate is avg. the 2nd most minutes, how is this possible? I am in the Nate camp where I think he gets guys in the right sets and plays some solid D, but 2nd most amount of mins played? Booker needs to play more.
Random thoughts:
Tad's rotations drive me insane, I think Tad is a great coach, recruiter and leading this program into the promise land, but the lineup when SHT, Adams, Chen and Booker are all in at the same time may give me a heart attack. SHT, Chen and Adams need to be sprinkled in with the "core 6 guys" not all in at the same time. This isn't hockey CU doesn't need to play in shifts.
Carlon's Offensive Rating continues to plummet while his % of possessions used continues to increase, look up "forcing it" in the dictionary and that is the definition. He has got to pick it up over the next couple of weeks.
Austin needs play more, maybe this means SHT plays less....just sayin
DarthSnow will enjoy this, but I was shocked (shocked) when I looked at the % of Minutes Played Category and saw that Nate is avg. the 2nd most minutes, how is this possible? I am in the Nate camp where I think he gets guys in the right sets and plays some solid D, but 2nd most amount of mins played? Booker needs to play more.
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How else is he gonna set the all time turnovers record for CU?
jgisland
Club Member
Everything is updated through the CAL game.
Also, everything that is wrong with the IER system is perfectly reflected in Nate and Austin's "grades" for the CAL game. B+ for Nate and a D for Austin. As has been reflected on numerous other threads, Nate had the game of his career and Austin showed just how far his game has come along in his time in Boulder. The IER does a terrible job of capturing how good of performances they actually had.
Also, everything that is wrong with the IER system is perfectly reflected in Nate and Austin's "grades" for the CAL game. B+ for Nate and a D for Austin. As has been reflected on numerous other threads, Nate had the game of his career and Austin showed just how far his game has come along in his time in Boulder. The IER does a terrible job of capturing how good of performances they actually had.
jgisland
Club Member
Everything is updated through the Oregon St game.
I know these stats only go back 5 years (this being the 6th), but who would have guessed that CU would start playing real D this year? Unless something crazy happens, CU will end up with more Defensive Win Shares this year than Offensive Win Shares after last year having a tilt toward offensive win shares 15-9 and two years ago 13-1. When I think of Tad I think of uptempo/spread offensive with slashers not lock down D, that is an impressive two year turn around.
I know this was a disappointing weekend, but SHT actually showed some real signs of growth this weekend.
Seeing what Xavier Johnson did in the CIF championship game (19 points and 20 rebounds, with 11 of his rebounds coming on the offensive end) I can't wait to pair him with Dre.
I know these stats only go back 5 years (this being the 6th), but who would have guessed that CU would start playing real D this year? Unless something crazy happens, CU will end up with more Defensive Win Shares this year than Offensive Win Shares after last year having a tilt toward offensive win shares 15-9 and two years ago 13-1. When I think of Tad I think of uptempo/spread offensive with slashers not lock down D, that is an impressive two year turn around.
I know this was a disappointing weekend, but SHT actually showed some real signs of growth this weekend.
Seeing what Xavier Johnson did in the CIF championship game (19 points and 20 rebounds, with 11 of his rebounds coming on the offensive end) I can't wait to pair him with Dre.
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Kevin Pelton released his PAC-12 awards today. The interesting part is the WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) stats he has. According to his numbers, Dre was the most valuable player in the conference when it comes to WARP. Dinwiddie is the second most valuable Buff.
jgisland
Club Member
Nice find, a couple interesting things. As much as it pains me, I think CU's performance this weekend sealed Altman's COY. PacHoops has been touting Devoe Joseph as POY for weeks, everybody else seems to think Wroten as a lock for POY. And Pelton has Wroten as a second teamer. I am surprised all of CU's starting 5 aren't way up there in WARP, as our second unit save Ski has been atrocious for most of the year.
I have started working on P12 Win Shares for all P12 teams and from what I can tell it looks like Dre will have the highest % of team Win Shares in the P12. Basically an adjustment of Win Shares so the number of team wins doesn't matter, just an actual MVP for the league.
here is the pre-season PAC:12 rankings:
1. UCLA ... (14) 421
2. California ... (13) 405
3. Arizona ... (11) 404
4. Washington ... 355
5. Oregon ... 282
6. Stanford ... 255
7. USC ... 194
8. Oregon State ... 188
9. Arizona State ... 148
10. Colorado ... 119
11. Washington State .. 119
12. Utah ... 74
Romar definitely deserves to win. He took a young team to the top of the PAC:12 which is much more impressive than Boyle moving from 10 to 6. I think if Boyle finished in the top four he would have had it, but the Stanford games and Oregon road trip killed it for us.
Romar has Wroten Jr, Wilcox and Ross. Romar has done a good job, but there's some damn good talent on that Washington team. And there were quite a few people picking them to be pre-season champs as well.
Boyle has Roberson, two unproven freshmen, and three seniors who are "steady".
I'm sorry, but Boyle should be a no-brainer. This last weekend probably opened the door for Romar, but it's gotta be Tad.
Boyle has Roberson, two unproven freshmen, and three seniors who are "steady".
I'm sorry, but Boyle should be a no-brainer. This last weekend probably opened the door for Romar, but it's gotta be Tad.
jgisland
Club Member
Remember that this vote is done by the P12 coaches so that skews everything. I think that the Altman argument is made from the perspective that he has a hodge-podge group of players and transfers many who he didn't recruit. He lost his prize recruit a week into the season and kept it together.
IMO Romer has the most talented roster in the league, Wroten is a man among Boys, Ross and Wilcox will play in the league and Gaddy still has a lot of upside after blowing out his knee a year ago. Romer had a terrible start and righted the ship when league play came. Is this COY worthy...maybe? But if you are another coach in this league don't you think that Romer underachieved? Sure he won the P12 (not saying much) but OOC losses to St. Louis (they got killed), Nevada, Marquette and the ultimate blemish the smack down by he mighty South Dakota St at home 10 games into the season.
Not trying to be too much of a homer here, but what Tad did with this group is pretty impressive. Who knew how Carlon would fit into this, would Dre's stats translate when he played more minutes? Dinwiddie and Ski, could they come in and contribute? How was SHT going to rebound after sitting out a year? How was Adams game going to translate from the JuCo level? Chen couldn't get on the floor at DU, could he at CU? Would Dufault make a leap when asked to contribute on the offensive end? Would Nate be able to run the show after being a role player with Higgins bascially handling the ball the last couple of years? There was a question mark at every position. Yes CU ended up with a 6th seed, but 12 days ago CU had a chance to win the regular season conf. IMO Tad is still the COY.
IMO Romer has the most talented roster in the league, Wroten is a man among Boys, Ross and Wilcox will play in the league and Gaddy still has a lot of upside after blowing out his knee a year ago. Romer had a terrible start and righted the ship when league play came. Is this COY worthy...maybe? But if you are another coach in this league don't you think that Romer underachieved? Sure he won the P12 (not saying much) but OOC losses to St. Louis (they got killed), Nevada, Marquette and the ultimate blemish the smack down by he mighty South Dakota St at home 10 games into the season.
Not trying to be too much of a homer here, but what Tad did with this group is pretty impressive. Who knew how Carlon would fit into this, would Dre's stats translate when he played more minutes? Dinwiddie and Ski, could they come in and contribute? How was SHT going to rebound after sitting out a year? How was Adams game going to translate from the JuCo level? Chen couldn't get on the floor at DU, could he at CU? Would Dufault make a leap when asked to contribute on the offensive end? Would Nate be able to run the show after being a role player with Higgins bascially handling the ball the last couple of years? There was a question mark at every position. Yes CU ended up with a 6th seed, but 12 days ago CU had a chance to win the regular season conf. IMO Tad is still the COY.
and he ****ing killed a bear!
Could you do a breakdown of how the 2011-12 squad compared to the 2010-11 squad on the Four Factors?
I'm curious to know what we need to improve and what we need to maintain for 2012-13.
jgisland
Club Member
I bolded the "4 factors" but also included some other info I thought would be of interest.
| 2011/2012 | 2010/2011 | |||||||
| Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Avg | Category | Offense | Defense | D-I Avg | |
| Adj. Effeciency | 102.8 | 93.3 | 100.8 | Adj. Effeciency | 117.3 | 102.4 | 101.3 | |
| Adj. Tempo | 65.8 | 66.1 | Adj. Tempo | 67.9 | 66.7 | |||
| Four Factors | Four Factors | |||||||
| Effective FG%: | 49.5 | 46.9 | 49 | Effective FG%: | 52.5 | 50.6 | 49.1 | |
| Turnover %: | 19.5 | 18.4 | 20.3 | Turnover %: | 16.9 | 19.3 | 20.1 | |
| Off. Reb. %: | 29.2 | 28.8 | 32.1 | Off. Reb. %: | 34.6 | 32.4 | 32.3 | |
| FTA/FGA: | 43.2 | 32 | 36.4 | FTA/FGA: | 39.3 | 35.7 | 37.7 | |
| 3P%: | 34.6 | 33.1 | 34.3 | 3P%: | 37.6 | 36.5 | 34.4 | |
| 2P%: | 48.3 | 45.3 | 47.8 | 2P%: | 51 | 48.7 | 47.8 | |
| FT%: | 68.4 | 65.9 | 69.2 | FT%: | 77.9 | 70.3 | 69.3 | |
| Block%: | 11 | 8.9 | 9.2 | Block%: | 7.8 | 7.1 | 9.2 | |
| Steal%: | 9.7 | 8.8 | 9.6 | Steal%: | 8.9 | 9.7 | 9.4 | |
| Point Distribution (% of total points) | Point Distribution (% of total points) | |||||||
| 3-Pointers: | 25.3 | 30.3 | 27.5 | 3-Pointers: | 23.2 | 27.3 | 27.4 | |
| 2-Pointers: | 51.7 | 51.3 | 52 | 2-Pointers: | 54.2 | 52.9 | 51.6 | |
| Free Throws: | 23 | 18.4 | 20.4 | Free Throws: | 22.6 | 19.9 | 21 | |
| Bench Minutes: | 26.60% | 30.40% | Bench Minutes: | 27.50% | 30.70% | |||
| Experience: | 1.68 | 1.66 | Experience: | 1.92 | 1.73 | |||
| Effective Height: | 1.1 | 0 | Effective Height: | -0.2 | 0 | |||
| Average Height: | 77.4" | 76.5" | Average Height: | 77.5" | 76.5" |
jgisland
Club Member
Comments about stats ^.
Thoughts on 4 factors:
Effective fg% will probably stay the about the same, with more inside presence I could see this having a slight uptick with more post play and less jump shots.
Offensive rebounding % will get better, with the addition of XJ and Smith most likely inserted into the starting lineup CU will have more assertive rebounders.
Turnover % needs to get better, to start the season is was ugly, but I have faith in Dinwidde taking care of the ball.
FTA/FGA improved this year, that SHOCKED me. As much as Alec took the ball to the rack and got to the line I can't believe CU got to the line at a higher rate this year.
Other thoughts:
My guess Is that bench minutes % are above 30% next year, maybe even as high as 35%.
Defensive efficiency improved dramatically this year, with the loss of Nate and Carlon I bet that regresses from 93.3 pts per 100 possessions to somewhere around 97 to 98 pts per 100 poss
Thoughts on 4 factors:
Effective fg% will probably stay the about the same, with more inside presence I could see this having a slight uptick with more post play and less jump shots.
Offensive rebounding % will get better, with the addition of XJ and Smith most likely inserted into the starting lineup CU will have more assertive rebounders.
Turnover % needs to get better, to start the season is was ugly, but I have faith in Dinwidde taking care of the ball.
FTA/FGA improved this year, that SHOCKED me. As much as Alec took the ball to the rack and got to the line I can't believe CU got to the line at a higher rate this year.
Other thoughts:
My guess Is that bench minutes % are above 30% next year, maybe even as high as 35%.
Defensive efficiency improved dramatically this year, with the loss of Nate and Carlon I bet that regresses from 93.3 pts per 100 possessions to somewhere around 97 to 98 pts per 100 poss
This is what jumped out to me too. The impressive thing is that a lot of it was Dre. If he can keep that up...
We have to keep it around 97 to 98. Any more and we'll be in serious trouble.
I hope to God the bench gets more minutes this year. And like you, I'd like to see us not do the hockey line change philosophy of putting our backups in where we run our second unit out there without any starters for a few minutes at a time.
I'm honestly surprised that Boyle has said that he thinks Ski starts next year. I really thought we'd see him off of the bench for another season to provide that scoring punch.
OK, just checked out Tad's page on KenPom and I noticed something interesting. All of his teams at UNC had 35%+ of their minutes played by bench players, which was good for the top 20% of college basketball. Meanwhile at CU, he's had 26.5% and 27.5% of his minutes played by bench players, which is way down there in the rankings. So now the question is, why did he play his bench so much more at UNC than here? Is it because at UNC he had very few "difference makers" so he was able to go deep and not suffer a big drop off? Or does he just not have the quality of bench that he would like yet at CU?
Both.
Kind of my thoughts too.
I remember last year a discussion over bench minutes came up and I looked at UNC's stats only to be surprised at how balanced the numbers were for minutes played. I'd really like it if we could find that happy medium between Tad's UNC teams and his CU teams so far. Really hoping that Adams and SHT continue their improvements this off-season. If we can get those two playing some solid minutes, along with the minutes Gordon should earn, that will help a lot.
jgisland
Club Member
I agree with you and Snow as well on Tad at UNC.. The center previously known as Simba (AB) I am irrationally high on after the last 1/3 of the season, I think he will get significantly more minutes. I have seen people say they think Adams could crack the starting lineup, I may be the only one thinking this, but I could see his minutes decrease with all of the new guys coming in, with the summer playing together in France these freshman should be up to speed from the opening tip.
Sidebar on the France Trip - Has anybody heard if Thorburn or anybody is going to cover the trip? Can these games somehow miraculously be streamed on the interwebs from the land of foie gras?
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| 2011/2012 | Carlon Brown | Andre Roberson | Austin Dufault | Spencer Dinwiddie | Askia Booker | Nate Tomlinson | Shane Harris-Tunks |
| Off Win Share | 1.83 | 2.28 | 1.90 | 2.24 | 0.96 | 1.00 | 0.19 |
| Def Win Share | 1.48 | 4.32 | 1.31 | 1.39 | 0.97 | 1.11 | 0.83 |
| Total Win Share | 3.31 | 6.60 | 3.21 | 3.63 | 1.93 | 2.11 | 1.02 |
Wow. As much as we are gonna miss tournament Carlon and Dufault's super senior year, it is crazy to think that Dre owns more win shares than Carlon and Dufault COMBINED.
The three proposed starters we have coming back (Dre, Spencer, Ski), combined for 12.16 win shares. With tunks, that is 13.18 win shares.
Which means, assuming no progression by any of those guys (which is a silly assumption, especially in the case of spencer and ski, and to some point, Simba), we need to find 7-10 wins out of the new guys. Unless Adams finds his groove.
You think our class of 6 guys, top 25 in the nation, have 7-10 win shares in them?
I'm a LITTLE more confident in what can happen next year now.
Shut it. The fact that it is DRE'S BALL cannot be under-valued.
It is shut.