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Colorado RPI Watch

CVilleBuff said:
. Oregon is starting to draw in the bandwagoners at this point, although they've had bad attendance overall in that new arena. .
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I wonder if their bad attendance is related to the fact you can't look at that court for more than a couple of minutes without going more-than-slightly mad ?

Only court worse than that, vision/sanity-wise, is in that Jr HS gym they call "Moby", up in Ft Fun! "Roll out the bleachers, we'll have a barrel of fun......"

 
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Buffnik said:
*RPIs based on RealTimeRPI.com

RPI | Team | CU Result

Pac-12
#4 Arizona (L-a)
#19 Oregon (dnp)
#21 Colorado (14-6)
#32 UCLA (L-h)
#57 Arizona State (L-a)
#73 Washington (L-a)
#75 Stanford (W-h)
#80 Cal (W-h)
#130 USC (W-h)
#154 Oregon State (dnp)
#161 Washington State (W-a)
#180 Utah (dnp)

OOC Opponents
#2 Kansas (L-a)
#23 CSU (W-h)
#34 Baylor (W-n)
#54 Wyoming (L-a)
#71 Air Force (W-h)
#96 Murray State (W-n)
#107 Dayton (W-n)
#167 Fresno State (W-a)
#187 Hartford (W-h)
#226 Texas Southern (W-h)
#237 Northern Arizona (W-h)
#257 Wofford (W-h)
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be good for us if WYO can right the ship and get back in the top 50. ASU as well and assuming we beat them at the CEC. otherwise the two remaining games against rpi dreg utah and OSU are must wins home and away. this week feels like a trap game. we won ugly there last year....got to take care of business and keep moving up the standings.
 
Mick Ronson said:
be good for us if WYO can right the ship and get back in the top 50. ASU as well and assuming we beat them at the CEC. otherwise the two remaining games against rpi dreg utah and OSU are must wins home and away. this week feels like a trap game. we won ugly there last year....got to take care of business and keep moving up the standings.
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I think ASU is far more likely to slide down by the end of the year than continue to rise. This is likely their peak as they've finished the home-heavy part of their Pac-12 slate and now have 7 of their final 11 on the road.

Wyo will have chances for big wins, but at 2-4 in the MWC with losses to Fresno State and Air Force, they appear to be tumbling.

Murray State has been sliding, we need them to hold in the top 100. Dayton needs to climb back in the top 100 and they stand a good chance of doing so.
 
Buffnik said:
Hard to see more than 4. I think 3 is more likely than 5.
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that is an interesting way to put it. My odds would be:

3 - 90%
4 - 50%
5 - 15%

based on schedule (past and future) we are much more likely than ASU at this point of making the tourney. They sit at #58 in RPI while we are at #21.

I think we need to get to the 20, 21 win range before the PAC:12 tourney and not get bounced in the 1st round. Arizona State will probably need to get to 23 wins before the PAC:12 tourney and with 11 games left (7 on the road) it is going to be hard for them to find a way to win 7 of those games.
 
It should be 4 unless CU completely collapses and does something like lose all 3 upcoming road games.

It's not going to be 5. No way.
 
Arizona State will be punished for playing such a weak non-conference schedule (ala like CU in 2010) by the committee, and they benefited from CU's hangover and UCLA missing Travis Wear (killed CU), so I can't see them maintaining this momentum on the road.

Four teams probably (UCLA, Oregon, Arizona and CU), and ASU if they finish top 3. CU is in great position with their inflated RPI, like CSU last year, they have to upset a few teams (Oregon/Arizona) at home, win a few on the road (at Utah, at Oregon State), and they should be in.
 
Hold serve @ home and win @Utah and OSU, and I like our chances. Do this and get a win @Cal or Stanford and gotta believe we're dancing.

Don't know that CU has ever been this high in the RPI heading in to February.
 
Sweep the bay area, sweep utah, sweep OSU and hold serve at home and we are in great shape. They play with the defensive intensity they had against Stanford, and the offensive intensity they showed against Cal and they can beat anyone in the conference. I was a little worried last week, but getting back to .500 definitely makes me feel a bit better. Especially with the recent rise in production from X. He could be the extra little boost we needed to get this team to function properly. This week was some good basketball thats for sure.
 
Did anyone see the new AP Poll? Both Oregon and Arizona in the top 10, WOW! Neither of those teams is that good IMO, but it has been a perfect week for them to move up in the polls with every team losing ahead of them, and ASU is receiving votes because they beat one good team, I hope Arizona and Oregon keep winning before we play them, and I hope ASU loses every road game.

Although, Oregon loses Artis for at least a few weeks, so I can see them dropping down a bit. In addition, they have barely beaten most Pac12 teams, so it isn't like they are dominanting anyone.

Arizona hasn't really played up to their potential, but they have talent and can beat anyone when they are on.

Arizona State will fall back down as they go on the road. They barely beat Utah and USC at home, so I can't see them continually getting that lucky on the road.

Washington is all over the place, so I don't really know what to expect from them.

We need to finish top 4 to make the tourney, and it starts with beating Utah next week.
 
jwhite17 said:
Did anyone see the new AP Poll? Both Oregon and Arizona in the top 10, WOW! Neither of those teams is that good IMO, but it has been a perfect week for them to move up in the polls with every team losing ahead of them, and ASU is receiving votes because they beat one good team, I hope Arizona and Oregon keep winning before we play them, and I hope ASU loses every road game.

Although, Oregon loses Artis for at least a few weeks, so I can see them dropping down a bit. In addition, they have barely beaten most Pac12 teams, so it isn't like they are dominanting anyone.

Arizona hasn't really played up to their potential, but they have talent and can beat anyone when they are on.

Arizona State will fall back down as they go on the road. They barely beat Utah and USC at home, so I can't see them continually getting that lucky on the road.

Washington is all over the place, so I don't really know what to expect from them.

We need to finish top 4 to make the tourney, and it starts with beating Utah next week.
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Agreed that neither Arizona nor Oregon is necessarily top 10 material, but admittedly it's a weird year with no true dominant teams (I mean, Michigan is #1 for heaven's sake). Based on their body of work so far, I'm not arguing that they shouldn't be there at this point in time, but I have my doubts about whether they'll be there come March. Still, I'm not complaining as it's good for CU.

Washington is going to continue to fall in the standings. They've lost 3 straight (including Utah and Oregon State), and now have Arizona, ASU, @ UCLA next and still have Oregon, @ Arizona, @ ASU, UCLA after that. Not implying they'll lose *all* of those, they're bound to pull an upset or two, but in general they'll be picking up losses down the stretch.

ASU is definitely better than expected (I mean they were picked 11th by the media...) but they have played 5/7 conference games at home. Like any non-elite team, I have my doubts as to their ability to consistently win on the road with 7/11 remaining games being away.

Overall we're back in decent shape at 4-4 (6th in the standings). Utah is certainly a must win both for continuing to climb the Pac-12 standings, and to avoid the absolute devastation a loss to them would bring upon our resume.
 
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CVilleBuff said:
Agreed that neither Arizona nor Oregon is necessarily top 10 material, but admittedly it's a weird year with no true dominant teams (I mean, Michigan is #1 for heaven's sake). Based on their body of work so far, I'm not arguing that they shouldn't be there at this point in time, but I have my doubts about whether they'll be there come March. Still, I'm not complaining as it's good for CU.

Washington is going to continue to fall in the standings. They've lost 3 straight (including Utah and Oregon State), and now have Arizona, ASU, @ UCLA next and still have Oregon, @ Arizona, @ ASU, UCLA after that. Not implying they'll lose *all* of those, they're bound to pull and upset or two, but in general they'll be picking up losses down the stretch.

ASU is definitely better than expected (I mean they were picked 11th by the media for heaven's sake) but they have played 5/7 conference games at home. Like any non-elite team, I have my doubts as to their ability to consistently win on the road with 7/11 remaining games being away.
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It's been a bit of a weird season that way. It will make March Madness that much more interesting this year. The brackets won't have 80% of the people picking Kentucky like last year.
 
I'm glad that Oregon is in the top 10, the more teams in the PAC:12 that are ranked the better. Too bad that UCLA laid an egg against Arizona State.
 
J.R. Ewing said:
It's been a bit of a weird season that way. It will make March Madness that much more interesting this year. The brackets won't have 80% of the people picking Kentucky like last year.
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It's going to be complete mayhem this year. While it's unlikely we see the ridiculousness of last year with a couple 15's beating 2's, it's very likely we'll see a lot more of the moderate upset variety. We're going to be looking at something along the lines of UCLA as a 7 seed and Kentucky as an 8. Tell me those aren't a couple teams top seeds will desperately want to avoid...
 
CVilleBuff said:
It's going to be complete mayhem this year. While it's unlikely we see the ridiculousness of last year with a couple 15's beating 2's, it's very likely we'll see a lot more of the moderate upset variety. We're going to be looking at something along the lines of UCLA as a 7 seed and Kentucky as an 8. Tell me those aren't a couple teams top seeds will desperately want to avoid...
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Unless Kentucky goes on a hell of a run to close the season, the only dancing they'll be doing is in the NIT.
 
Goose said:
Unless Kentucky goes on a hell of a run to close the season, the only dancing they'll be doing is in the NIT.
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The lack of quality wins is an issue (Maryland, not much else). Still 13-6 (4-2) 61st RPI I consider them a potential tournament team. A program like Kentucky is going to get the benefit of the doubt from the committee, basically the exact opposite of what happened to us two years ago. They finish decently and knock off say Ole Miss and Mizzou, and they're in business IMO.

As another example, North Carolina can be thrown in there as team that's going to be a lower seed than usual and could provide a strong secon-- excuse me, Third Round test for a top seed.

With February comes bubble talk. I love it :nod:
 
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Games of interest tonight:

Alabama State @ Texas Southern. 5pm on ESPNU. We need TXS to keep racking up conference wins for our RPI calculation.
#2 Kansas @ West Virginia. 7pm on ESPN. The more KU wins, the less bad our blowout loss looks. And they're an RPI windfall.

I also thought that this week was a good time to start our "Bubble Watch" since we're about 2/3 of the way through the season. I'll get a new thread going for that with those games of interest.
 
Buffnik said:
Games of interest tonight:

Alabama State @ Texas Southern. 5pm on ESPNU. We need TXS to keep racking up conference wins for our RPI calculation.
#2 Kansas @ West Virginia. 7pm on ESPN. The more KU wins, the less bad our blowout loss looks. And they're an RPI windfall.

I also thought that this week was a good time to start our "Bubble Watch" since we're about 2/3 of the way through the season. I'll get a new thread going for that with those games of interest.
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Between you and CVille ... I no longer even bother visiting the ESPN BB site for info on where CU sits in the national picture (which they haven't been very good at, other than saying that CU deserves consideration for the "loss" at AZ come selection time). You guys provide all the info I need ... and props (and rep) to both of you for that. :thumbsup:

EDIT: Board tells me I can't rep CVille again so soon ... WTF is up with that?
 
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L Buff said:
Between you and CVille ... I no longer even bother visiting the ESPN BB site for info on where CU sits in the national picture (which they haven't been very good at, other than saying that CU deserves consideration for the "loss" at AZ come selection time). You guys provide all the info I need ... and props (and rep) to both of you for that. :thumbsup:

EDIT: Board tells me I can't rep CVille again so soon ... WTF is up with that?
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You probably gave out too much neg rep.
 
TX Southern rolled to a 32-point win. Now 8-14 (7-2). It's a shame they're on probation, because they're peaking and could have won the SWAC tourney for some additional wins.
 
Buffnik said:
TX Southern rolled to a 32-point win. Now 8-14 (7-2). It's a shame they're on probation, because they're peaking and could have won the SWAC tourney for some additional wins.
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That sucks, they definitely would have picked up some SWAC Tournament wins and could have even made the Big Dance. Southern looks like the team to beat in that conference at 14-7 (8-1)...to put it in perspective, the second best overall record for SWAC teams is 4 games under .500. Quite the turnaround for a Texas Southern team that started the month losing their first conference game of the season to fall to 1-13. Now they exit the month having won 7/8.

And thank heaven we didn't end up losing to those guys or we'd be talking about whether it was right to turn down the CBI right now.
 
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