Just to expand on this point, after this next round of realignment, there will be 68 schools in the P5 + ND:
View attachment 52925
Assume no one from B1G or SEC gets left out- that's 28 spots right there. Neither is ND. If it goes to 60, CU has to be a more attractive "take" than just 9 of the remaining 40 schools (WSU, OSU, Wake Forest, KSU, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, Louisville, TCU would seem to be the prime candidates to me).
If it goes to 55, you've got to find 5 more schools that CU is more attractive than. I'd argue ISU, KU, NC State, Duke, maybe BC do less to move the needle from a football viewpoint.
If it goes to 50, you've got to find 5 more. Virginia? Arizona? WVU? Maybe the B1G or SEC kicks out some smaller members? I could see any of those programs making an argument over CU, just as I could see CU making an argument over them.
Assuming only football matters...
Here are the ACC / B12 / Pac12 teams with lower ratings in 2021 than Colorado (#64 366k), : Duke (64k), Boston College (156k), Syracuse (219k), Cal (222k), Houston (232k), Oregon State (321k), Arizona 337k
Here are the ACC / B12 / Pac12 teams with less than 1M average viewers despite significantly better years than Colorado (bowl game or better): UCF (407k), Washington State (483k), NC State (525k), Wake Forest (526k), Pittsburgh (550k), Virginia (611k), Louisville (616k), K State (636k), Texas Tech (798k), Utah (994k)
So just by the numbers it's close since that's 17 schools, and you also have to consider market overlap / desirability (e.g., it's hard for me to believe that NCSU won't rank as a top priority for whatever of the two doesn't land UNC), comparability of TV deals that enable those ratings (e.g., UCF would have much higher ratings in a power conference),and administrative support that makes it likely to grow interest in the program.
The schools that you listed that aren't above:
- Cincinatti (1.26M) - an outlier year, would want to see how they did a couple of years ago in the ratings, but still clearly have admin support and are in a big market, academics and market overlap would be an issue for the Big Ten
- Iowa State (1.29M) - likely a take before CU, only argument is sheer size of market and general population growth trends
- TCU (907k) - if Big Ten can get comfortable with the academics, most likely a take before CU, probably not true of the SEC given the existing Texas footprint
- KU (540k) - I mean this one shocked me - but the numbers are what they are. Most likely a take before CU
- WVU (948k) - similar argument as with Iowa State
Finally, SEC and Big Ten schools that have fewer viewers than Colorado:
- Vanderbilt (37k)
Uh, yeah, that's it.
Another takeaway - as a Wake alum - Wake should not be at the head of these lists as the primary example of program that doesn't deserve to be in a power conference.It is a well run program with lots of booster investment and that stands for something - with many more viewers than many much larger schools.