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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

NCTX said:
Assuming only football matters...

Here are the ACC / B12 / Pac12 teams with lower ratings in 2021 than Colorado (#64 366k), : Duke (64k), Boston College (156k), Syracuse (219k), Cal (222k), Houston (232k), Oregon State (321k), Arizona 337k
Here are the ACC / B12 / Pac12 teams with less than 1M average viewers despite significantly better years than Colorado (bowl game or better): UCF (407k), Washington State (483k), NC State (525k), Wake Forest (526k), Pittsburgh (550k), Virginia (611k), Louisville (616k), K State (636k), Texas Tech (798k), Utah (994k)

So just by the numbers it's close since that's 17 schools, and you also have to consider market overlap / desirability (e.g., it's hard for me to believe that NCSU won't rank as a top priority for whatever of the two doesn't land UNC), comparability of TV deals that enable those ratings (e.g., UCF would have much higher ratings in a power conference),and administrative support that makes it likely to grow interest in the program.

The schools that you listed that aren't above:
- Cincinatti (1.26M) - an outlier year, would want to see how they did a couple of years ago in the ratings, but still clearly have admin support and are in a big market, academics and market overlap would be an issue for the Big Ten
- Iowa State (1.29M) - likely a take before CU, only argument is sheer size of market and general population growth trends
- TCU (907k) - if Big Ten can get comfortable with the academics, most likely a take before CU, probably not true of the SEC given the existing Texas footprint
- KU (540k) - I mean this one shocked me - but the numbers are what they are. Most likely a take before CU
- WVU (948k) - similar argument as with Iowa State

Finally, SEC and Big Ten schools that have fewer viewers than Colorado:
- Vanderbilt (37k)

Uh, yeah, that's it.

Another takeaway - as a Wake alum - Wake should not be at the head of these lists as the primary example of program that doesn't deserve to be in a power conference.It is a well run program with lots of booster investment and that stands for something - with many more viewers than many much larger schools.
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If you would’ve read the good posts in this thread, you’d know that ratings aren’t the key to this discussion.
 
manhattanbuff said:
If you would’ve read the good posts in this thread, you’d know that ratings aren’t the key to this discussion.
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They aren’t the only thing that matters but of course they are a critical input and the most objective one that is out there.
 
NCTX said:
They aren’t the only thing that matters but of course they are a critical input and the most objective one that is out there.
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Not really. The only thing that matters is the guaranteed additional money that your TV partners (or new TV partners) would be willing to pay for that team’s home market being added to the package.
 
manhattanbuff said:
Not really. The only thing that matters is the guaranteed additional money that your TV partners (or new TV partners) would be willing to pay for that team’s home market being added to the package.
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That's what mattered 10 years ago but my understanding is that in a world of cable cutting it has become much more about viewers than markets.

If it was about markets, why did the Big Ten just add two schools in a single market, versus going for an Arizona or PNW school? Or CU for that matter.
 
NCTX said:
That's what mattered 10 years ago but my understanding is that in a world of cable cutting it has become much more about viewers than markets.

If it was about markets, why did the Big Ten just add two schools in a single market, versus going for an Arizona or PNW school? Or CU for that matter.
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Serious Leslie Nielsen GIF by filmeditor
 
GoBuffs08 said:
Serious Leslie Nielsen GIF by filmeditor
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Tell me what I'm missing. If markets were all that mattered, Big Ten got the LA market when they added USC. If they didn't care about brand / viewers and almost entirely only cared about markets then why wouldn't they have found a school in a nearby but different market to be USC's travel partner? Isn't Arizona State more valuable from a market perspective than a second LA school?
 
NCTX said:
Tell me what I'm missing. If markets were all that mattered, Big Ten got the LA market when they added USC. If they didn't care about brand / viewers and almost entirely only cared about markets then why wouldn't they have found a school in a nearby but different market to be USC's travel partner? Isn't Arizona State more valuable from a market perspective than a second LA school?
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They somewhat care about brand and USC and UCLA are national brands, but USC and UCLA give the B1G the entire SoCal market (if not most of the entire state). The SoCal market is more valuable than any of the others.
 
GoBuffs08 said:
They somewhat care about brand and USC and UCLA are national brands, but USC and UCLA give the B1G the entire SoCal market (if not most of the entire state). The SoCal market is more valuable than any of the others.
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So how is this different than saying what matters are the number of viewers or the ratings?

I'm not trying to be obstinant here, I am legitimately trying to reconcile the perspective that what matters is expanding to valuable markets not capturing more viewers. Of course those two things are often highly correlated, but not always. Again, very clearly it was about markets in the 2010s, which is why Rutgers is in the Big Ten, but I thought the common viewpoint was that Rutgers would not have been added today given how media rights economics have evolved with the advent of live streaming.
 
Regarding SDSU:

Makes sense for Pac membership if the conference sticks together.

Long-term, if the future is 2 conferences (what we currently call the Big Ten and SEC) being the North & South -- I could see ASU & SDSU being in that "SEC/South" when the final version of realignment happens.
 
NCTX said:
So how is this different than saying what matters are the number of viewers or the ratings?

I'm not trying to be obstinant here, I am legitimately trying to reconcile the perspective that what matters is expanding to valuable markets not capturing more viewers. Of course those two things are often highly correlated, but not always. Again, very clearly it was about markets in the 2010s, which is why Rutgers is in the Big Ten, but I thought the common viewpoint was that Rutgers would not have been added today given how media rights economics have evolved with the advent of live streaming.
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It's about more than having a team in a market, it's about owning that market and that location. The big 10 now owns the entire Southern California region. This is important for TV, and it's also important for recruiting. This is heading towards two conferences that matter, and if they only took one, the SEC could add the other. They locked it up by taking both.
 
wsp4820 said:
It's about more than having a team in a market, it's about owning that market and that location. The big 10 now owns the entire Southern California region. This is important for TV, and it's also important for recruiting. This is heading towards two conferences that matter, and if they only took one, the SEC could add the other. They locked it up by taking both.
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Yeah, the game theory argument makes sense to me. I am still not entirely buying that markets matter nearly as much as they used to.

If they do - the next two on the radar should be Stanford and Cal.
 
NCTX said:
Yeah, the game theory argument makes sense to me. I am still not entirely buying that markets matter nearly as much as they used to.

If they do - the next two on the radar should be Stanford and Cal.
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Those two schools don't own the Bay area market.
 
Duff Man said:
Those two schools don't own the Bay area market.
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What exactly is the definition of own? Is there one or is it just completely subjective? If the Big Ten has USC, UCLA, Cal, and Stanford - then how would it not own the Bay area market?
 
buffinbama said:
Dont live in a trailer park
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excellent advice! i shall pu that in my notes of gospel to-do's.

or, as the singer-songwriter once said "out where the cars are up on blocks and the houses are on wheels."

i do believe some of the noise that this has all slowed down a bit-- a lot of the bulk of the pac leftovers are trying to process what is the best possible outcome for each of them. the idea of solidarity above all seems implausible to me.
 
NCTX said:
What exactly is the definition of own? Is there one or is it just completely subjective? If the Big Ten has USC, UCLA, Cal, and Stanford - then how would it not own the Bay area market?
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because they don't have very many fans of the football they offer in the area. stanford has nearly unlimited resources and still can't win regularly and cal is over a billion in debt and can't win at all.

they don't move the needle on eyeballs. because they don't possess passionate dedicated fans, or at least enough of them and they aren't otherwise interesting enough to draw ratings.

a comparison--- usc has an absolute ****-ton of very passionate fans throughout socal and a huge number did not even attend the school it is like the irish subway alumni.
 
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