Rough part of town though. Would not go a late kick off there unless I had a parking pass.
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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues
- Thread starter InTheBuff
- Start date
i look forward to the day that we can look back at certain posts in this thread and quote them so that we can dance around and proclaim our own genius and mock those that expressed contrary positions. as i have personally been on at least 4 different sides of this thing, i am quite confident that several of you have wrongfully and unjustifiably disagreed with one of my hot takes at least once. boy, are you going to pay for that! tell ya right now.
this thread will hit several tens of thousands of posts and never die. never.
ahahahaaaahahahaaaha!
this thread will hit several tens of thousands of posts and never die. never.
ahahahaaaahahahaaaha!
It will go beyond what actually happens and devolve into a revisionist history of what should have happened and how much better off we had been had we only gone in a different direction.
But every timeslot will be going against an SEC or B1G game regardless of conference except for the nightcap one at 10:30 ET. That late timeslot is certainly valuable to an extent because of its exclusivity, but how valuable is it? Meaning how does it rate against other games throughout the day after you take out the primo games like Big Noon, CBS SEC game, ABC 3:30/4 game, ND on NBC, and the 7:30pm/8 primetime matchups? It would be interesting to see those numbers.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
I would venture a guess that the two games with the Nubs and the one with A&M LY were the highest rated CU games (and probably in a top 15-20 in times of highest ranked Pac 12 games) post-2016 if we're excluding weird-ass 2020.
I believe UCF is the largest in the United States, not just Florida.
I think you would want the top program in the conference in OSU as they actually draw really well when they aren't relegated to FS1. I think you'd want the DFW area with TCU, definitely want BYU for the national following and it's rivalry with Utah, and then I would probably want Cincy for the current brand, and a travel partner for them with WVU. If ETZ teams are a non starter for travel purposes, then I'd say Houston and maybe TTU, or even Boise for their brand. Admittedly, though, I don't care about the academic status, religious affiliations or Mike Gundy's stupidity when talking about the creation of CFB league where I'm only interested in watching the football teams compete on the field.
Right, but at this point, it's the most valuable inventory available. There is nothing the non-B1G and SEC programs/conferences can do to out maneuver them or get on the same level. It's now about fighting for #3 in the pecking order and the best chance for that is the night slots which are proven to be valuable. Along with that, I believe the Pac has to embrace Thursday and Fridays. Unfortunately, they need to kick #MACtion to the curb and become #PACtion on Thursdays with 2 nationally televised games, be the prime time live sporting events on national TV on Fridays with two more, and then be Pac 16 After Dark with the 1030 ET slot. That equates to 5 matchups per week or 10 teams. Depending on how many teams are in the conference, the remaining games are on ESPN+ during the day on Saturdays.
perusing B12 twitter, they all seem mad because games on FS1 and ESPN+ rate that much worse, and B12 teams have been on those two more than P12. And P12 after dark is a totes unfair advantage and they can dedicate BYU to BYUafterdark games until the end of eternity and capture that market
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
TEAM VIEWERS Oregon
1.96 million Stanford
1.83 million Washington
1.73 million Washington State
1.59 million Colorado
1.49 million Utah
1.44 million Oklahoma State
1.28 million California
1.27 million TCU
1.22 million Arizona State
1.19 million West Virginia
1.10 million Baylor
1.07 million Iowa State
1.04 million Texas Tech
866,000 Arizona
815,000 Kansas State
748,000 Oregon State
723,000 Kansas
409,000
Mandel: Pac-12's TV numbers indicate its future might not be so dire
Television numbers indicate the Pac-12 isn't necessarily in a weaker position than the Big 12.theathletic.com
Here is something worth reading.
Y'all, I'm sorry, but this analysis is garbage. In a perfect world, I'd like the PAC to survive and thrive, because I like regional conferences. But there's so many biases in this data it's ridiculous. He did one good things (throwing out games against USC/ UCLA/ UT/ OU and 2020 games altogether), which is just enough to make someone who doesn't understand stats happy, but then the rest is dog****.Mandel: Pac-12's TV numbers indicate its future might not be so dire
Television numbers indicate the Pac-12 isn't necessarily in a weaker position than the Big 12.
for those of you too cheap to read this:
CU averages viewers higher than EVERY big12 remnant team.
the remaining PAC teams average much higher attendance than the remnant big12.
the late time slot is worth a lot (as we have been saying since espn needs the inventory).
mandel now forecasting that if the pac holds together (no sure thing if uo demands unequal rev sharing), it will have a deal that looks like the acc deal. in other words, better than the remnant big 12 deal but still half or less of what the big and sec will earn.
A short list of immediately problematic biases:
- He's using more Big XII games than PAC games despite the Big XII have fewer games. This automatically means he's including a larger percentage of low-ranking Big XII games than PAC ones.
- He's not including lowest-tier games from both, but for Big XII teams that was typically one game per year; for the PAC it was many more shown on the PACN, accentuating point #1.
- He's not controlling for network and timeslot, which is wildly variable. Games on ESPN and Fox draw dramatically (a million +) better than games on FS1, etc.
- Contributing to the last point, in a point he almost acknowledges, is that the late timeslot gives the PAC an uncontested window that drives up viewers already, but since it's uncontested it automatically gets those games on better networks, which really drives it up.
- You can read the last point and think "well then PAC is obviously better" but not so fast my friend. If this is a situation where theoretically the Big XII might take a few PAC teams to join BYU out west, that advantage immediately goes away.
- Thus what matters is comparing apples to apples by controlling for timeslot and network, seeing which conference does better when all is equal, and then getting the top teams from the worse conference to join the better.
- All of this and more is why Navigate Research, which actually crunches these numbers as a business so as to inform conferences and media companies of what is realistic, said in March that the new Big XII would barely be behind the then 12-member PAC 12.
and this guy from oregon weighs in...
new narrative emerging (wilner is of course spouting similar to this and mandel)...
www.johncanzano.com
new narrative emerging (wilner is of course spouting similar to this and mandel)...
Canzano: Delusion aside -- the Big 12 has nothing on the Pac-12
The numbers (and brands) don't lie.
www.johncanzano.com
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Canzano and Wilner's pro-Pac 12 biases are as bad as Scheer's pro Big 12 bias.and this guy from oregon weighs in...
new narrative emerging (wilner is of course spouting similar to this and mandel)...
Canzano: Delusion aside -- the Big 12 has nothing on the Pac-12
The numbers (and brands) don't lie.
A KSU fan told me on Twitter that if they started a game at 930 local time in Manhattan, KS, it would be the most electric environment and would outdraw most Pac games. Lol
Well, it is the city that never sleeps!
Yes, the Big 12 could take the main Pac programs and capture the late night slot. Nobody is disputing that. However, without that, the Big 12 really does suffer, and it's not "unfair" to compare it because the Pac has a geographical advantage for the late night slot. It's a fact. There just aren't going to be 930pm local kickoffs in Big 12 land, and even 830 local in Provo is unlikely, at least not more than once a season.
The number of games compared was 52 for Big 12 and 48 for Pac... Not a big enough difference to matter.
i am enjoying the various twitter meltdowns from the variously aligned conference homer pundits and their followers.
"we are not the suckiest leftover conference, you are!"
"no. you are clearly the suckiest leftover conference, you are barely better than g5."
etc.
all, meanwhile, ignoring the fact that every team not in the big or sec is royally ****ed.
Exactly. So this decision really boils down to which situation best positions CU for being more attractive to the B1G/SEC in the next expansion.
And the Pac might have an advantage in its instability- none of us will want to sign an ironclad 10-year GoR agreement.
Thisuniversityisf’ed!
Well-Known Member
I was lead to believe Manhattan was a destination! Who knew it was in ****ing Kansas all this time.
Thisuniversityisf’ed!
Well-Known Member
What really chaps my ass is somehow Nebraska slid into the B10 and we’re relegated to irrelevance. To be fair their history probably affords them that opportunity. But damn, in a town where cow tipping could be confused with pushing your wife over, it sucks.
You gonna quit when everybody cackles in laughter about all of your bad takes?
BerkeleyBuff
Well-Known Member
Combining the fact that he's using a larger percentage of Big XII games/ more low-end Big XII games, not accounting for the late-night game that get auto-put on a bigger network where they'd otherwise be put on something else, etc., leads to 45% or so of the Big 12's games he sampled being on FS1 or ESPNU vs 28% for the PAC, and 49% of the PAC was on ABC/ESPN/FOX vs 22% for the Big 12. That is absolutely a big enough difference to matter and, again, is why people (Navigate Research) who actually make money doing these analyses came up with drastically different numbers. I can't stress that enough. The people who operate a business doing this and must be reliable in order to get new contracts have numbers that completely dispute Mandel's little "analysis."
I'm not a stats guru. I know just enough to have gotten me through my PhD, and it wasn't stats-intensive. But even I could immediately tell there were a ton of issues with how Mandel set that up.
Really? The B1G just added two teams that will beat the **** out of Nebraska each and every year. I suppose the folks in Lincoln can dry their tears with wads of hundred dollar bills, but it feels to me like they’re really getting screwed in this. They were having a hard enough time competing against Iowa and Minnesota (forget Wisconsin, they never competed against them in the first place). Now they have to deal with USC and UCLA every year and they aren’t getting paid any more than their peers, so they basically just got relegated to the bottom of their division in perpetuity.
But Mandel addresses most of that in his article and I think the main point is valid no matter what: The 10:30 ET slot is valuable and there's only one conference that can offer that inventory.
Thisuniversityisf’ed!
Well-Known Member
I just wanted to talk **** about Nebraska honestly.
Everybody agrees that the timeslot is valuable. I don’t think everyone agrees that, in totality, the P12 without Los Angeles is as valuable of a TV commodity as the B12. At the very least, Navigate Research does not see it that way.
One thing that I think some folks are missing:
The B1G now has two teams that play home games in the Pacific time zone. If that late time slot on Saturday really is worth anything, they can take a slice of that pie too.
If I'm a network programming guy and I can choose between Michigan State at USC or Stanford at Oregon to fill my late slot, I know which one I'm going with.
The B1G now has two teams that play home games in the Pacific time zone. If that late time slot on Saturday really is worth anything, they can take a slice of that pie too.
If I'm a network programming guy and I can choose between Michigan State at USC or Stanford at Oregon to fill my late slot, I know which one I'm going with.
I get it. I has occurred to me that there are a lot of schools in the B1G and SEC that will simply never be able to compete. Like, ever. Schools like Rutgers, Nebraska, Indiana, Mississippi State, Vandy, South Carolina. These schools are getting paid stupid money but aren’t at any advantage with regards to their peers. They’re basically stuck. Forever. So would we rather be where we are - getting paid less in a conference we can compete in; or where Mississippi State is - getting paid more but losing every week?
I have my own ideas on that, but I get the sense that there’s folks here on both sides of that question.
Thisuniversityisf’ed!
Well-Known Member
Ill take the money.