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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

hawg1 said:
It’s a good article. I would like to see the individual games for each team. My only complaint.
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I think CU's 2016 season, along with two Nebraska matchups on ABC in the 3:30 ET (I think?) slot likely carry their numbers, just like Washington State playing a lot in the late game slot carries theirs, but again, it shows just how valuable that time slot is and the Big 12 simply can't offer it.
 
hawg1 said:
It’s a good article. I would like to see the individual games for each team. My only complaint.
Click to expand...
I think the big question is whether the impact of playing OU/UT is any different than the impact of playing USC/UCLA as a ratings driver. Since OU/UT were considered the more valuable properties, my assumption is that the remaining B12 is hurt a bit more than the remaining P12.

Also, it's clear that being ranked inflates numbers a lot for viewership numbers. WSU & ISU both punched above their weight and I think that's the reason- they've been earning extra attention for themselves. This also points to what a monster CU can be if we can get our house in order.
 
Also, as good and steady as Utah has been on the field, it's no surprise the big conferences aren't chomping at the bit to add them. Tiny fan base and a program with zero national appeal or brand.

Stanford is definitely surprising, but as Mandel points out, their numbers are carried by the stretch with McCaffrey and Love when they were competing for Pac 12 Championships and playing in the Rose Bowl.
 
Buffnik said:
I think the big question is whether the impact of playing OU/UT is any different than the impact of playing USC/UCLA as a ratings driver. Since OU/UT were considered the more valuable properties, my assumption is that the remaining B12 is hurt a bit more than the remaining P12.

Also, it's clear that being ranked inflates numbers a lot for viewership numbers. WSU & ISU both punched above their weight and I think that's the reason- they've been earning extra attention for themselves. This also points to what a monster CU can be if we can get our house in order.
Click to expand...
He goes into the first part. OU/UT have a significantly higher impact than USC and UCLA did. OU/UT accounted for 73% of Fox and ABC selections from the Big 12, while SC and UCLA accounted for only 53% (Oregon had more than UCLA).
 
Buffnik said:
I think the big question is whether the impact of playing OU/UT is any different than the impact of playing USC/UCLA as a ratings driver. Since OU/UT were considered the more valuable properties, my assumption is that the remaining B12 is hurt a bit more than the remaining P12.

Also, it's clear that being ranked inflates numbers a lot for viewership numbers. WSU & ISU both punched above their weight and I think that's the reason- they've been earning extra attention for themselves. This also points to what a monster CU can be if we can get our house in order.
Click to expand...

« Below is a chart of the remaining Pac-12 and Big 12 schools’ average TV ratings, from 2015-19 and 2021. (Games against Oklahoma/Texas and USC/UCLA are excluded.) «

Unless I misconstrued your point, he excluded those games from his comparison.
 
Thisuniversityisf’ed! said:
« Below is a chart of the remaining Pac-12 and Big 12 schools’ average TV ratings, from 2015-19 and 2021. (Games against Oklahoma/Texas and USC/UCLA are excluded.) «

Unless I misconstrued your point, he excluded those games from his comparison.
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He did, but he discussed which set of programs that left their respective conferences accounted for more of the ratings and it's OU/UT by a wide margin. Basically, the Big 12 took a significantly bigger hit to their ratings/attractiveness than the Pac 12 did.
 
I’m thinking we end up staying in the PAC 12. Or we go to the Big 12. One of these things happen.

squirrel GIF
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
He did, but he discussed which set of programs that left their respective conferences accounted for more of the ratings and it's OU/UT by a wide margin. Basically, the Big 12 took a significantly bigger hit to their ratings/attractiveness than the Pac 12 did.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that was interesting. I was only touching on the part where ratings for members left would be inflated by playing one of those schools.
 
manhattanbuff said:
Problem is that these numbers are from the P12N
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Nope
Both conferences’ home games on ABC, Fox, ESPN, ESPN2, FS1 and ESPNU were included. Unfortunately, no data is available for the Pac-12 Network, Longhorn Network or ESPN+, which began airing Big 12 games in 2019. But it’s still a relatively similar amount of inventory — after removing the departing members’ games, about 52 per year from the Big 12 and 48 from the Pac-12.
Click to expand...
 
I wonder what the average viewership would be by team if you broke it down by timeslot. I am assuming that the value of the late window is due to scarcity of teams playing and that the PAC12 is receiving a bump there.

I believe that night games are here to stay for CU in whichever conference they end up. :(
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
Also, as good and steady as Utah has been on the field, it's no surprise the big conferences aren't chomping at the bit to add them. Tiny fan base and a program with zero national appeal or brand.

Stanford is definitely surprising, but as Mandel points out, their numbers are carried by the stretch with McCaffrey and Love when they were competing for Pac 12 Championships and playing in the Rose Bowl.
Click to expand...
Stanford is interesting because when they've got the right coach they can recruit anywhere. Mack Brown said they're the toughest to go against because what they offer is different than everyone else and they're going to get those kids & families whose #1 criteria is an Ivy level degree. In a way, Stanford is NIL-proof.
 
Liver said:
there won't be a p12n in a few more weeks, right?

national carriage on espn/espn+ seems the likely outcome...
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I think that PACN becomes a streaming service focused on non-revenue sports and basketball overflow.
 
Preston Slaughter said:
I wonder what the average viewership would be by team if you broke it down by timeslot. I am assuming that the value of the late window is due to scarcity of teams playing and that the PAC12 is receiving a bump there.

I believe that night games are here to stay for CU in whichever conference they end up. :(
Click to expand...
The night games are definitely the biggest reason, but the Pac is also the only conference that can offer that time slot, which inherently makes the teams and conference as a whole attractive.
 
this is one of those moments when everyone needs to tuck in their egos and think strategically. therefore, it will not happen. uo isn't getting more rev share. the b12 needs to recognized their own viewer limits. etc. but, if everyone were smarter, a super strong combo league could be created and it would get a better tv deal. and preserve something of the college football that seems more normal.
 
Liver said:
this is one of those moments when everyone needs to tuck in their egos and think strategically. therefore, it will not happen. uo isn't getting more rev share. the b12 needs to recognized their own viewer limits. etc. but, if everyone were smarter, a super strong combo league could be created and it would get a better tv deal. and preserve something of the college football that seems more normal.
Click to expand...
My biggest concern is that the Pac leaders look down their noses at the academic prestige of financially valuable partners.

My suspicion is that they could add SDSU and FSU to claim San Diego & Sacramento media markets to get a media deal that's more lucrative than the Big 12 could offer.

From that foundation, they could likely make an aggressive play for Houston & TCU to go to 14 with a deal which those schools would have to jump at.

Then, ESPN could push a scheduling alliance between the ACC & Pac-14 that would drive the value of its ESPN+ streaming package.

But will the Pac members be willing to compromise in some areas to get that done?
 
The question at this point, is why would ESPN want the Big 12 to survive? They need the Pacific and Mountain time slots, and if the non OU/UT ratings are largely accurate (why wouldn't they be), why aren't they directing the top of the Big 12 into the Pac 10 like it did OU/UT to the SEC to create the West Coast league that will generate the best ratings in those time slots? Every, single new Big 12 matchup in CTZ or ETZ is going to go up against multiple SEC and/or B1G matchups that are going to dwarf their ratings.

Basically, what is the incentive for another CTZ conference to survive? At this point, I don't know how the move isn't to fold it into the Pac.
 
hawg1 said:
It’s a good article. I would like to see the individual games for each team. My only complaint.
Click to expand...

I have 2 caveats before I post this:

  1. I'm not super familiar with the website or how they source the data, so take it with a grain of salt
  2. This only includes nationally televised games
Here's a list of top national games in the 2021 season:

www.sportsmediawatch.com

College Football TV Ratings

College football TV ratings for the 2023 regular season, bowls, College Football Playoff and National Championship.
www.sportsmediawatch.com www.sportsmediawatch.com

Colorado shows up a few times:

  • 4.5M viewers against A&M (A&M's second most viewed game all year)
  • 170K viewers against ASU (although worth noting this was on ESPNU and it had the highest published ratings of any ESPNU game that day; also it was directly up against Oregon-Arizona)
  • 2.7M viewers against Oregon (Oregon's 5th most viewed game all year, very comparable to UO-Washington and UO-Cal)
  • 1.55M viewers against Utah (This was Utah's 2nd-most viewed game of the year, over USC-UU, UCLA-UU, and BYU-UU)
From those numbers, it's clear that Oregon was the ratings juggernaut of the conference in 2021, even including USC.
 
ahoelsken said:
I don't see how the Pac survives without all that on ESPN+. Also don't think Kliavkoff is anywhere near as attached to that as Scott was.
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Could go either way. I just know the B1G has 2 apps which cover this stuff. Having a PACN app focused on "Olympic" sports might be the compromise to the university presidents to make it work. Regardless, there's not significant monetary value on this stuff. However it shakes out, I expect to see lower quality on-campus production with announcers remotely calling the games to do it on the cheap.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
The question at this point, is why would ESPN want the Big 12 to survive? They need the Pacific and Mountain time slots, and if the non OU/UT ratings are largely accurate (why wouldn't they be), why aren't they directing the top of the Big 12 into the Pac 10 like it did OU/UT to the SEC to create the West Coast league that will generate the best ratings in those time slots? Every, single new Big 12 matchup in CTZ or ETZ is going to go up against multiple SEC and/or B1G matchups that are going to dwarf their ratings.

Basically, what is the incentive for another CTZ conference to survive? At this point, I don't know how the move isn't to fold it into the Pac.
Click to expand...

I keep coming back to what @Buffnik said earlier in this thread. If Cal/Stanford/UA/CU or ASU/UA/UU/CU are viewed as additive to the BigXII, doesn't that say a lot about the brands in their conference?

I'd go so far to say it implies that there aren't many (if any) programs that would be additive to the P12.
 
Denver_sc said:
I keep coming back to what @Buffnik said earlier in this thread. If Cal/Stanford/UA/CU or ASU/UA/UU/CU are viewed as additive to the BigXII, doesn't that say a lot about the brands in their conference?

I'd go so far to say it implies that there aren't many (if any) programs that would be additive to the P12.
Click to expand...
I think adding BIGXII teams to the PAC12 lends national credibility and in-conference interest within the CTZ. The PAC12 is viewed as a gimmicky conference that has no bearing on a national stage. I think the sum of the parts is less than the whole and the teams in both conferences win in a merger.
 
Denver_sc said:
I keep coming back to what @Buffnik said earlier in this thread. If Cal/Stanford/UA/CU or ASU/UA/UU/CU are viewed as additive to the BigXII, doesn't that say a lot about the brands in their conference?

I'd go so far to say it implies that there aren't many (if any) programs that would be additive to the P12.
Click to expand...
The Big 12 ratings are definitely a victim of having to play in the slots where there is going to be significant competition from B1G and SEC (and even ACC), though. IMO, you do have to consider the idea of Oklahoma State, TCU, Cincinnati, BYU, TTU, etc playing in the late time slot and what they would bring, which is why I think the Pac poaching 5 and adding SDSU is ideal
 
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