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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

iWillDuYu said:
Man, reading posts from some of you explains just how dense the PAC has become, and why we are facing what we are. The delusion and complete ignorance of the situation makes my stomach turn for our University's athletics. There are no schools we can add that will help us, but in fact will only hurt us. MAYBE, SDSU would be net-neutral for us, a big MAYBE. All other g5's are going to dilute our media rights value. There is no magic wand to wave to warp that fact into fantasy for some of you. The B12 grabbed just about any non P5 school that is worth something and that doesn't dilute the rights value. They passed on schools we're talking about taking. There is no B12 school coming here to take less money, less passion, and less exposure for their time zone. The B12 is going to have their media rights value above ours in the neighborhood of $10M+ per school, and that doesn't include what they do with their Tier 3 rights in the next iteration of the media rights. If the number being floated around for the PAC from ESPN is accurate, and seems very likely it is, then our admin sitting us in thus conference past '24 will be damn near criminal.
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Aw shut your pie hole! Delusion is all we’ve got.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
Dude. ABC and ESPN are the same. And University Presidents are kept apprised of the situation and are the ultimate decision makers, but this is exactly why they brought in GK and exactly why he hired Sports Media Advisors to guide the negotiations.
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NO SH1T!!! Thats why we aren't going to get a better bid than ESPN's from them! And as you are well aware that the University Presidents are the final decision makers, then they are indeed involved in the process as I stated. The conference takes their direction and goes and does their bidding. JFC
 
I love this thread, where I can just hit the “jump to last page” to see if we’re in a conference yet but not miss anything.
 
PAC MAN said:
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Happy Chris Pratt GIF by Parks and Recreation
 
BerkeleyBuff said:
Wilner yesterday, after earlier claiming the PAC "blows away" the Big XII in value based on Mandel's BS, then ends the day saying "it's not clear the Big XII adds that much value... And why would PAC teams leave for just a few million more dollars..." That's a notable change in tone for a single 24 hour period.

Obviously, if that $24.5 per team/ per year offer is a legit number, let's assume it's a low-ball during this exclusive period from ESPN and that after August 4 other players will get involved and drive the number up.
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Wilner is a ****ing clown. "And why would PAC teams leave for just a few million more dollars....." Seriously, Jon? Because money is driving this ****ing thing.
 
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PAHIBuff said:
The Nub patrons at Ole's Big Game Bar in Paxton, NE disagree. Even the 3 year olds are wearing red. It's a nightmare.
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I’ve actually been to Ole’s. Interesting spot. But the University of Nebraska is over 100 miles from the Mountain Time Zone. Claiming you are in four time zones is just dumb.
 
Not Sure said:
I’ve actually been to Ole’s. Interesting spot. But the University of Nebraska is over 100 miles from the Mountain Time Zone. Claiming you are in four time zones is just dumb.
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Well yeah, as noted, the school isn't anywhere near the MTZ. So the guy was spewing some grandiose bull****.
 
manhattanbuff said:
The Big 12 lost big brands, but they didn’t lose any big TV markets. Their additions give them access to some decently well sized markets as well. It’s a pretty major consideration when comparing the dropoffs between them and the Pac-12 losing power programs.
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I get what you are saying but the Texas broadcast markets are probably "contested" markets shared by more than one conference rather than dominated by one.

There are a few questions about those markets;
1. Do Over the air OTA broadcasters air SEC games or Big12 games?
2. Since their is no Big12 Channel (yet) they dont get carriage revenue, correct?
3. To gain audience will Big12 games be positioned in time slots so as NOT to compete with SEC games?

Unfortunately the SEC is a 10,000lb gorilla thats probably going to dominate the ratings. I wouldnt be surprised if the Big12 finished third behind the B1G as well. Ratings have become much more about marquee matchups rather than about supporting local teams. I agree the "local" matters when there is nothing else on. However, when their is a SEC or B1G super matchup, and there will be one every week, local Big12 teams will get squeezed out.
 
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BerkeleyBuff said:
Y'all, I'm sorry, but this analysis is garbage. In a perfect world, I'd like the PAC to survive and thrive, because I like regional conferences. But there's so many biases in this data it's ridiculous. He did one good things (throwing out games against USC/ UCLA/ UT/ OU and 2020 games altogether), which is just enough to make someone who doesn't understand stats happy, but then the rest is dog****.

A short list of immediately problematic biases:
- He's using more Big XII games than PAC games despite the Big XII have fewer games. This automatically means he's including a larger percentage of low-ranking Big XII games than PAC ones.
- He's not including lowest-tier games from both, but for Big XII teams that was typically one game per year; for the PAC it was many more shown on the PACN, accentuating point #1.
- He's not controlling for network and timeslot, which is wildly variable. Games on ESPN and Fox draw dramatically (a million +) better than games on FS1, etc.
- Contributing to the last point, in a point he almost acknowledges, is that the late timeslot gives the PAC an uncontested window that drives up viewers already, but since it's uncontested it automatically gets those games on better networks, which really drives it up.
- You can read the last point and think "well then PAC is obviously better" but not so fast my friend. If this is a situation where theoretically the Big XII might take a few PAC teams to join BYU out west, that advantage immediately goes away.
- Thus what matters is comparing apples to apples by controlling for timeslot and network, seeing which conference does better when all is equal, and then getting the top teams from the worse conference to join the better.
- All of this and more is why Navigate Research, which actually crunches these numbers as a business so as to inform conferences and media companies of what is realistic, said in March that the new Big XII would barely be behind the then 12-member PAC 12.
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I agree that the statistical analysis isn't great. I also know that (as detailed by manhattan) there are different factors in terms of market-based carriage fees that determine value.

But it might be worth looking at viewers from last season. Here's a composite from sportsmedia watch on the top viewed game from each conference that didn't involve UT/OU or USC/UCLA as well as the number of viewers. I also included games with over 1M viewers.

WeekTop Rated P12 MatchupViewers (M)Top Rated B12 MatchupViewers (M)Other matchups over 1M viewers
0-1NoneWVU/UMD
1.35​
2​
Washington/Mich
4.748​
Iowa/Iowa St
3.89​
CU-A&M (4.5M)
3​
ASU/BYU
1.5​
UCF/Louisville
1.881​
Cincy-Ind (1.68M)
4​
Arizona/Oregon
1.656​
Iowa St/Baylor
2.012​
5​
Oregon/Stanford
2.641​
Cincy/ND
3.805​
6​
Stanford/ASU
1.134​
Boise/BYU
2.244​
Temple-Cincy (1.11)
7​
Cal/Oregon
1.45​
BYU/Baylor
1.44​
ASU-Utah (1.39), UCF-Cincy (1.37)
8​
NoneOK St/Iowa st
2.659​
9​
Colorado/Oregon
2.673​
None
10​
Oregon/Washington
2.726​
Baylor/TCU
1.807​
OK St-WVU (1.14)
11​
WSU/Oregon
1.991​
TCU/OK St
1.373​
Cincy-USF (1.16)
12​
Oregon/Utah
4.818​
OK St/TTU
1.911​
ASU-OR St (1.11)
13​
ND/Stanford
2.743​
Cincy/ECU
2.932​
CU-Utah (1.55), BYU-USC (1.46) OR St/UO (1.33), WSU/Wash (1.21)

Thoughts:
  • All 10 of the remnant Pac10 had at least 1 1M+ viewer game. KU, KSU, and Houston did not. Each conference also had one team that only appeared in one such game (Arizona and Tech, respectively)
  • The three most viewed games out of that entire list involved 4 Pac 12 teams: Washington, CU, Utah, and Oregon. The next three most viewed games all involved BigXII teams, but just 2 (Cincy and Iowa State)
  • There were a total of 17 games involving a Remnant P12 team. In 13 of them, it was a conference game. There were 19 total games involving a new BigXII team, but only 8 of those were games with two new BigXII teams playing each other.
  • The remnant P12 teams appeared in an average of 2.9 games each with more than 1 million viewers. The remnant Big XII teams appeared in an average of just 1.875 such games. The BigXII teams that will be added each appeared in an average of 2.75 such games.
However, both conferences are equally ****ed long term.
 
iWillDuYu said:
NO SH1T!!! Thats why we aren't going to get a better bid than ESPN's from them! And as you are well aware that the University Presidents are the final decision makers, then they are indeed involved in the process as I stated. The conference takes their direction and goes and does their bidding. JFC
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You keep posting like ABC and ESPN are coming in with independent bids. Demonstrate that you understand they are the same entity and I will stop inferring that you’re an idiot.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
I was thinking Hulu might also come in with a strong bid, seeing as how GK helped launch it
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I think you’re continuing the joke but ESPN does do this currently. An ABC/ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+/Hulu would be an awesome platform to have all your games on because they’d be available to everyone on multiple platforms all over the world. Sucks they’re going to lowball us.
 
waiting around for good things to happen!

things are gonna change, i can feel it!

[chords from loser inserted here]
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
You keep posting like ABC and ESPN are coming in with independent bids. Demonstrate that you understand they are the same entity and I will stop inferring that you’re an idiot.
Click to expand...

They're not you ruhtard, thats been my point in every post. Go back to my first post referencing this ... i said "ABC won't be bidding on us" because we've effectively already received one from ESPN. Put your helmet on before you post again.
 
iWillDuYu said:
They're not you ruhtard, thats been my point in every post. Go back to my first post referencing this ... i said "ABC won't be bidding on us" because we've effectively already received one from ESPN. Put your helmet on before you post again.
Click to expand...

You keep arguing ABC won’t be bidding and won’t be higher than ESPN? It’s in all your comments.

You realize that lawyers are who do all this negotiating right and they’re part of the Disney corporation? They aren’t negotiating on ESPN’s part, they’re negotiating on their corporates part.
 
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MiamiBuffs said:
I get what you are saying but the Texas broadcast markets are probably "contested" markets shared by more than one conference rather than dominated by one.

There are a few questions about those markets;
1. Do Over the air OTA broadcasters air SEC games or Big12 games?
2. Since their is no Big12 Channel (yet) they dont get carriage revenue, correct?
3. To gain audience will Big12 games be positioned in time slots so as NOT to compete with SEC games?

Unfortunately the SEC is a 10,000lb gorilla thats probably going to dominate the ratings. I wouldnt be surprised if the Big12 finished third behind the B1G as well. Ratings have become much more about marquee matchups rather than about supporting local teams. I agree the "local" matters when there is nothing else on. However, when their is a SEC or B1G super matchup, and there will be one every week, local Big12 teams will get squeezed out.
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1) The Texas markets will very likely have staggered start times and some games pushed to secondary and/or regional networks. It’ll also depend on the specific market. There are 20, so some will show the UT game and some will show the TTU, Houston, TCU, or Baylor game. They already do this since games often run in the same time windows.
2) The Big 12 does not have their own network. This hasn’t changed. They’re not getting network fees from the network but they are getting market preferred tiering.
3) I expect that the Big 12 will continue to do stagger their times to start an hour or half hour after normal start times. This allows customers to flip back and forth or view picture-in-picture.
 
The Alabaster Yak said:
Dude. ABC and ESPN are the same. And University Presidents are kept apprised of the situation and are the ultimate decision makers, but this is exactly why they brought in GK and exactly why he hired Sports Media Advisors to guide the negotiations.
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Edit, about three hours late on this deleted joke.
 
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