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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

BerkeleyBuff said:
I listened to a little bit while driving home. I love how when he is trying to think up a random game between two unaffiliated teams, the hypothetical game he settles on is Oregon State vs South Carolina. The Beavers vs the Cocks.
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ahoelsken said:
I watched. Looked like he had no clue about the innuendo he created with that matchup.

That's my projected Las Vegas Bowl matchup LOL
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In the context of the discussion he was saying how the casual fan would tune in for Ohio State-USC but hardcore fans would also tune in for a different OSU-USC game, so that's how he landed on Oregon State and South Carolina.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
In the context of the discussion he was saying how the casual fan would tune in for Ohio State-USC but hardcore fans would also tune in for a different OSU-USC game, so that's how he landed on Oregon State and South Carolina.
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What matters is casual fans.

Just like when we're talking stadiums. It wouldn't matter to me if CU's field was in an abandoned rock quarry with BYOB and snacks, no video board, etc. I'd still be at the game. But it's the mid-to-casual market that moves the needle on these things.
 
MiamiBuffs said:
The B1G has busied itself by creating one of the greatest TV market footprints outside of professional sports.

The TV people must pick the teams because they want to add large markets that juice their ad revenue. Rutgers, a total head scratcher, gave them New York and New Jersey. USC and UCLA gave them LA. They already had Chicago, Detroit, and Philly. Theyre helping the people that pay them make lots of money.

Whats markets are left to add? Boston College, UW, Stanford, Cal, Arizona or ASU, CU?

There are 210 Designated Market Areas (DMAs) listed by the 2022–2023 Nielsen rankings:


Our friends at ESPN have a great franchise in the SEC. But theyre much more dependent on cable carriage fees and those are declining
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I disagree. I think ESPN knows they will have to come up with a streaming solution in the future and the numbers look like they will need 15 million subscribers at $40+ per month. The SEC has those type of fans that will purchase that package. I am not sure the PAC does. In the future the ability to sells subscriptions is going to be important to the streamers. I think the new NBA contract deal is going to be negotiated to have a big streaming component.
 
Buffnik said:
I said at the time Frost left UCF that it was a terrible career move. There are better jobs than UCF, but Nebraska is not one of them. Pay is better, but much harder to recruit and win there plus you're trading a Florida lifestyle for a Nebraska lifestyle (which killed his marriage).
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I’d would bet his personality killed his marriage once his wife was stuck without a social life to distract her…. But just rank speculation…
 
FlaBuff said:
I don’t know why you think UCF is a clown show, they’ve had mostly winning 15 years. Not bad for a program that didn’t play a full d-1 schedule until the mid 90s. They have more major bowl appearances than BYU’s goose egg.
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Clown show for the declared Natty and of course Scott Frost, but they have made huge strides
 
Buffnik said:
What matters is casual fans.

Just like when we're talking stadiums. It wouldn't matter to me if CU's field was in an abandoned rock quarry with BYOB and snacks, no video board, etc. I'd still be at the game. But it's the mid-to-casual market that moves the needle on these things.
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I'd be there for the BYOB and snacks fosho...
 
BlackNGold said:
I disagree. I think ESPN knows they will have to come up with a streaming solution in the future and the numbers look like they will need 15 million subscribers at $40+ per month. The SEC has those type of fans that will purchase that package. I am not sure the PAC does. In the future the ability to sells subscriptions is going to be important to the streamers. I think the new NBA contract deal is going to be negotiated to have a big streaming component.
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That is 600 million a month. How much are these SEC schools going to make?
 
BlackNGold said:
I disagree. I think ESPN knows they will have to come up with a streaming solution in the future and the numbers look like they will need 15 million subscribers at $40+ per month. The SEC has those type of fans that will purchase that package. I am not sure the PAC does. In the future the ability to sells subscriptions is going to be important to the streamers. I think the new NBA contract deal is going to be negotiated to have a big streaming component.
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They probably do have the fans. The question is do they have enough? And will those fans keep it for 12 months? Or just football season?

Its $40 now. But shortly some of their existing contracts in other sports will come up and when they do the spend usually also goes up.

I dont think they can get enough customers at $40 and I also think the $40 doesnt last.
 
FlaBuff said:
I’d take their clown show hand ove fist compared out last decade+
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But, so interesting to see O'Leary make them good, then get ill and go winless, then back to solid with Frost using O'Leary's players
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MiamiBuffs said:
They probably do have the fans. The question is do they have enough? And will those fans keep it for 12 months? Or just football season?

Its $40 now. But shortly some of their existing contracts in other sports will come up and when they do the spend usually also goes up.

I dont think they can get enough customers at $40 and I also think the $40 doesnt last.
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If that is the case the sports media spending will collapse. It has to be monetized somehow and carriage fees are rapidly decreasing - if not from subscriber fees where is the money coming from?
 
To further accentuate the streaming component in the future of sports. ESPN+ has about 25 million subscribers and ARPU of $5.64 for a monthly income of $125 millions. Presently that pales in comparison to carriage fees but if you compare the content ESPN+ has minimal compelling content, IMO. You start adding in SEC football games, Some NFL games, it becomes a little more enticing.

The media is trying to figure out how this is going to work. We see NFL Sunday Ticket going to Youtube TV as its own package. Will College football conferences go the same way? As I said the NBA negotiation will be really interesting.

This is the quandary that the PAC 12 finds itself in - carriage fees are diminishing, the stock market is no longer rewarding increasing subscribers at the cost of profit, streaming is struggling to figure out how to make money.
 
Why does everyone believe that the future of streaming is subscriber-based? FAST streaming channels is the way everyone is headed right now.
 
BlackNGold said:
If that is the case the sports media spending will collapse. It has to be monetized somehow and carriage fees are rapidly decreasing - if not from subscriber fees where is the money coming from?
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More of a painful decline I think versus a collapse. But Thats the end game of my theory about what I think eventually will happen.

Im sure there will be a decent chunk of ESPN+ FS1+ Paramount Peacock AppleTV YouTubeTV Amazon (pure Streaming) sports subscribers. But because each streamer will be in their own “silo” of limited content the revenue will not be what it is now because who is going to sign up for ALL of those services? Most people will just sign up for the few services theyre interested in. The streamers will not have pricing power.
  • According to the survey findings, the average person subscribes to 2.8 streaming services—with nearly 10% paying for more than five streaming services at any given time. Mar 9, 2023
  • The average American spends $39 per month on streaming subscriptions
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The TV people, now not having ‘heaping pile o cash’ anymore, will be forced to make some hard decisions about where to spend to acquire content. And some leagues will have a poison pill forced on them (possibly the Pac12s current predicament right now)

I think the healthiest makeup of money used to buy the sports content in the future will be coming from the combination streamers/broadcasters (ABC NBC CBS FOX). But the future amounts spent on CFB wont be as high as today. I think this is the high water mark. Maybe that spend gets concentrated on the B1G and SEC while low balling everyone else gets worse. Maybe some accountant points out that $2b is a bit too much to keep 25 million subscribers and they walk away. But this is issue of where more limited money is spent is the question for me.
 
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NW Buff said:
Why does everyone believe that the future of streaming is subscriber-based? FAST streaming channels is the way everyone is headed right now.
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The model that live sports gets its pay day from is dying. Every time an American household cuts the cord thats $$7.64 less for ESPN, $1 less for FS1, etc. Grandma paid for channels she never watched (ESPN) as did the sports consumer (Hallmark Ch). The Champion Center and the Indoor Practice Facility were paid for by TV money.

FAST is not likely to make that lost money up.

ESPN still has to write a big check to the SEC (and others) every year
 
MiamiBuffs said:
The model that live sports gets its pay day from is dying. Every time an American household cuts the cord thats $$7.64 less for ESPN, $1 less for FS1, etc. Grandma paid for channels she never watched (ESPN) as did the sports consumer (Hallmark Ch). The Champion Center and the Indoor Practice Facility were paid for by TV money.

FAST is not likely to make that lost money up.

ESPN still has to write a big check to the SEC (and others) every year
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Subscription isn’t going to make that up either and so Fox/ESPN have to get the most eyeballs and then sell that to the advertisers, especially with personalized ads
 
NW Buff said:
Subscription isn’t going to make that up either and so Fox/ESPN have to get the most eyeballs and then sell that to the advertisers, especially with personalized ads
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Exactly. This why I think the B1G might be ahead of the SEC because they have leaned towards broadcasters. To do that theyve added large TV markets with expansion which boosts advertising sales by delivering a larger reach. I’d be curious if the B1Gs audience/ratings are larger for non football sporting events then the SEC or other conferences. I suspect it is why CBS and NBC joined FOX as rights holders instead of going after other conferences.
 
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This thread !
 
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