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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

100% this.

There is a venn diagram one can make of three groups of people:
  • People who are very angry that the ESPN hype machine pumps up SEC teams so that those teams are ranked highly in the preseason and then get a disproportionate amount of ranked teams later in the season as a result. This was not always the case, until ESPN signed the SEC up.
  • People who want CU to sign a majority linear deal via the Pac12 or Big12 with ESPN for "exposure"
  • People who are anti Apple or anti Amazon because those companies "are just marketing" and/or "try to be the main service for everything for a customer"
Somehow, we are overrepresented on this board who fit into the center of this Venn Diagram without making the connection that:
  1. We'd be a streaming company's first, second, and third priorities vs. lost in the noise on ESPN/other linear and thus negating any "exposure" advantage. Apple/Amazon would put their full weight behind marketing the P12 since it would be all they had.
  2. Apple (and to a lesser extent, Amazon) reach huge numbers of prospective viewers and have a very strong track record of marketing. Apple could do things like push notifications to every iPhone that "CU vs. OSU is starting now, tap here to watch" (note: I have received notifications like this regarding MLS games on my iPhone without an MLS subscription)
  3. Apple and Amazon have MUCH deeper pockets for marketing than any of the linear companies
Are they going to watch if they have to pay a subscription on top of the $6.99 they already give Apple?
 
Are they going to watch if they have to pay a subscription on top of the $6.99 they already give Apple?
People who are experts sure think so... if the deal gets made. I don't pretend to know better. Viewing trends and monetization of media rights with whatever goes into their calculus is not my area of expertise.
 
I don't pretend to know better.
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Even when it's on, it's not as available as streaming gets you. When other programming runs long, their other contractual obligations kick in to complete the broadcast. Truck race not finished on FS1? Don't worry, we're airing your game on FS2 until that's over. Oh, you don't pay up for a package with FS2? Well, you can fvck right off. Same thing with ESPN and things getting pushed to ESPNU, ESPNN or The Ocho.

I'd rather have the flexibility to get what I want to watch and know that I'm actually going to be able to watch it in its entirety. I love streaming.
By the way Ill add to this that when I moved back to Miami in the early 2000s very very very few CU games were available to watch. I think I got CU UT/OU, CU NU and a bowl game. And that was it. The Pac 10 was NEVER on. You”d get Big East (bc Miami), Big Ten (tons of alums in Fla), SEC, and a few ACC games. The Pac12 suffered from this balkanized regional TV even now because when we could be put on out east it was done so late on the east coast that no one watched it.

With streaming you will get all the games anywhere.
 
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By the way Ill add to this that when I moved back to Miami in the early 2000s very very very few CU games were available to watch. I think I got CU UT/OU, CU NU and a bowl game. And that was it. The Pac 10 was NEVER on. You”d get Big East (bc Miami), Big Ten (tons of alums in Fla), SEC, and a few ACC games. The Pac12 suffered from this balkanized regional TV even now because when we could be put on out east it was done so late on the east coast that no one watched it.

With streaming you will get all the games anywhere.
Only if you pay for it! And who the he** is going to pay for it in the south? No one!
 
By the way Ill add to this that when I moved back to Miami in the early 2000s very very very few CU games were available to watch. I think I got CU UT/OU, CU NU and a bowl game. And that was it. The Pac 10 was NEVER on. You”d get Big East (bc Miami), Big Ten (tons of alums in Fla), SEC, and a few ACC games. The Pac12 suffered from this balkanized regional TV even now because when we could be put on out east it was done so late on the east coast that no one watched it.

With streaming you will get all the games anywhere.

Can relate from being in college on the east coast n the early 2000s and I didn’t see CU much since there was no Fox Sports RM for obvious reasons.
 
Are they going to watch if they have to pay a subscription on top of the $6.99 they already give Apple?
Dude. I pay whatever they charge me to watch the Broncos and the Buffs and the Dodgers. This is a great time to be alive for sports fans because if you choose to you can get the content you want. I’ve lived in ca for a long time. I got directv way back in the day because I could get the Bronco games. I ditched directv when I No longer needed them to get the nfl package. People do make buying decisions based upon content.
 
Only if you pay for it! And who the he** is going to pay for it in the south? No one!

Especially if fans down south are shelling out the cash for game tickets in bigger numbers than most of the nation?

For people from the south, three things matter: college football, pro wrestling, and NASCAR. Wrestling already went streaming awhile back and college football is starting to do streaming. NASCAR hasn't done much of that due to their old contract but that ends in several years and they will be on streaming.

Can't feel sorry for those people who might have to give up a case of Marlboros or two in order to afford streaming.
 
Especially if fans down south are shelling out the cash for game tickets in bigger numbers than most of the nation?

For people from the south, three things matter: college football, pro wrestling, and NASCAR. Wrestling already went streaming awhile back and college football is starting to do streaming. NASCAR hasn't done much of that due to their old contract but that ends in several years and they will be on streaming.

Can't feel sorry for those people who might have to give up a case of Marlboros or two in order to afford streaming.

I believe you misunderstood dear Fred2. He was implying that most southerners don’t have internet or don’t know how to use it.

Personally I think he is wrong, but let the poor bastard rant.
 
Especially if fans down south are shelling out the cash for game tickets in bigger numbers than most of the nation?

For people from the south, three things matter: college football, pro wrestling, and NASCAR. Wrestling already went streaming awhile back and college football is starting to do streaming. NASCAR hasn't done much of that due to their old contract but that ends in several years and they will be on streaming.

Can't feel sorry for those people who might have to give up a case of Marlboros or two in order to afford streaming.

LOL... wut?
 
Was reading up a bit on streaming. It was surprising how popular it already is and the trends are incredible. I turned a bit to look at sports and I thought this graphic was fascinating:

Popular-Sports-In-The-United-States.png


To make sure it's clear, the graphic represents professional sports. The demand we're seeing on soccer justified the investment we just saw to get those rights. Now, understanding that college sports aren't going to be nearly as popular as pro sports, that still leads me to believe that gaining rights to live broadcast a conference's football and basketball games (even soccer, baseball and hockey if they play those sports) is worth a ton to them. Also interesting and possibly important here is that surveys of consumers said they would deal with commercials if it reduced the cost of the app. Is it possible that for a streaming service a deal with a college conference for all those hours of live broadcast of content consumers are saying they want... that if they forecast that they could drive themselves to a larger streaming market share through content while making back what they invested through ad revenue... throw some of that back by lowering subscription fees or running promos (both of which snag even more subs & results in higher ad revenues in a cycle that has a pretty long runway before saturation)... wouldn't they be looking at the profitability best of both worlds (ad sales plus subscriptions)... and wouldn't that make a major conference's sports broadcast rights a hell of a lot more valuable and its investments much more easy to recoup through its revenue model?

I suspect, given that universities are generally risk averse, that the Pac-12 is going to leave money on the table which would be offered in a higher upside deal that carried the risk of making money below forecast if it didn't perform. With that, I see the Pac-12 wanting a safer, guaranteed minimum floor. To get that, they'd have to forego some upside. Even so, if the minimum was in that ACC/Big 12 zone and the upsides could carry it to where the B1G/SEC weren't in a completely different neighborhood, that would actually be a better deal that I would have expected if USC and UCLA had stayed.
 
Was reading up a bit on streaming. It was surprising how popular it already is and the trends are incredible. I turned a bit to look at sports and I thought this graphic was fascinating:

Popular-Sports-In-The-United-States.png


To make sure it's clear, the graphic represents professional sports. The demand we're seeing on soccer justified the investment we just saw to get those rights. Now, understanding that college sports aren't going to be nearly as popular as pro sports, that still leads me to believe that gaining rights to live broadcast a conference's football and basketball games (even soccer, baseball and hockey if they play those sports) is worth a ton to them. Also interesting and possibly important here is that surveys of consumers said they would deal with commercials if it reduced the cost of the app. Is it possible that for a streaming service a deal with a college conference for all those hours of live broadcast of content consumers are saying they want... that if they forecast that they could drive themselves to a larger streaming market share through content while making back what they invested through ad revenue... throw some of that back by lowering subscription fees or running promos (both of which snag even more subs & results in higher ad revenues in a cycle that has a pretty long runway before saturation)... wouldn't they be looking at the profitability best of both worlds (ad sales plus subscriptions)... and wouldn't that make a major conference's sports broadcast rights a hell of a lot more valuable and its investments much more easy to recoup through its revenue model?

I suspect, given that universities are generally risk averse, that the Pac-12 is going to leave money on the table which would be offered in a higher upside deal that carried the risk of making money below forecast if it didn't perform. With that, I see the Pac-12 wanting a safer, guaranteed minimum floor. To get that, they'd have to forego some upside. Even so, if the minimum was in that ACC/Big 12 zone and the upsides could carry it to where the B1G/SEC weren't in a completely different neighborhood, that would actually be a better deal that I would have expected if USC and UCLA had stayed.
Good stuff. Agree with all of the growth ideas + add in x-sell for products like Vision Pro (if it’s Apple).

I also had a similar thought Pac-12 going the risk averse, secure payout route vs uncertain but potentially higher revenue. Here’s what I mean.

Example:

DTC Subscription Model - $59.99 annual
  • All games available (some simulcast on linear per week)
  • Available on Apple TV + standalone app
The P12 could see what kind of subscriptions they get and if it’s substantial make a lot of money OR take some guaranteed payout where each school gets $20M per year.

They would likely go w/ the guaranteed payout.

We already know it’ll also include some linear distribution for marquee games but the majority of the revenue will come in through the DTC streamer. Some examples of what that could look like.

ESPN - One game (Sat 7pm PT)
CBS - One game (Sat 3:30pm PT)
Network #3 - One game (Sat 1pm PT)

These networks would pay a fee to simulcast the game from the DTC option. That’s how the conference gets at or past the $31M mark.
 
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y'all need to chill. nature hikes or mad sex or peyote in a sweat lodge or something.

we ain't foooked. we coulda been, but it feels like we gonna be ok.

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