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CU has rejoined the Big 12 and broken college football - talking out asses continues

hokiehead said:
a little context for this:
  • it's not just the Northwesterns and Stanfords reducing capacity -- schools like Alabama, Wisconsin and Tennessee have also reduced capacity in recent years. Penn State is reducing capacity now.
  • Texas hasn't sold out a game since they expanded 5 years ago. Not one.
  • Kyle Field expansion was 10 years ago (probably planned and authorized 10 years before that) and A&M only sold out twice this year
Click to expand...
They're not going down to below 60k.
 
hokiehead said:
true. I think it's fair to look at capacity fluctuation both in terms of historical attendance for the home school as well as where the capacity ranks nationally.
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I'd say that the revenue and capacity optimization for all but about 6-12 schools among the top tier programs is in the 60-75k Goldilocks zone.
 
is the east side completely untouchable and off limits or is there a chance we can redo the east, south and west sides in one go? the options regarding the north side will be very limited, i assume
 
Buffnik said:
I think that if you go by stadium sizes (dedicated, non-shared facilities), you can get pretty damn close to the list of schools with the commitment, resources and fan base to build your top tier football division. I'm only listing schools which are or were in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC, plus Notre Dame.

1. Michigan (107,600)
2. Penn State (106,562)
3. Ohio State (102, 780)
4. Texas A&M (102,733)
5. LSU (102,321)
6. Tennessee (101,915)
7. Texas (100,119)
8. Alabama (100,077)
9. Georgia (93,033)
10. UCLA (92,542)
11. Nebraska (90,000)
12. Florida (88,548)
13. Auburn (88,043)
14. Clemson (81,500)
15. Oklahoma (80,126)
16. Florida State (79,560)
17. Notre Dame (77,622)
18. South Carolina (77,599)
19. USC (77,500)
20. Arkansas (76,212)
21. Wisconsin (75,822)
22. Michigan State (75,005)
23. Iowa (70,585)
24. Washington (70,083)
25. Pitt (68,400) - shared with Steelers
26. Virginia Tech (65,632)
27. Miami (64,767) - shared with Dolphins
28. Ole Miss (64,038)
29. BYU (63,470)
30. Cal (62,467)
31. Missouri (61,620)
32. Iowa State (61,500)
33. Virginia (61,500)
34. Purdue (61,441)
35. Mississippi State (61,337)
36. Kentucky (61,306)
37. Louisville (60,800)
38. Illinois (60,670)
39. Texas Tech (60,229)
40. West Virginia (60,000)
41. NC State (58,000)
42. Arizona State (56,634)
43. Oklahoma State (55,509)
44. Georgia Tech (55,000)
45. Oregon (54,000)
46. Indiana (52,626)
47. Rutgers (52,454)
48. Maryland (51,802)
49. Utah (51,444)
50. Minnesota (50,805)
51. North Carolina (50,500)
52. Colorado (50,183)
53. Kansas State (50,000)
54. Stanford (50,000)
55. Syracuse (49,057)
56. Baylor (45,140)
57. TCU (45,000)
58. Boston College (44,500)
59. UCF (44,206)
60. Kansas (40,000) - estimate after renovation
61. Vanderbilt (39,790)
62. Cincinnati (38,088)
63. Oregon State (35,548)
64. Northwestern (35,000)
65. Washington State (32,952)
66. SMU (32,000)
67. Wake Forest (31,500)

List of American football stadiums by capacity - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Not that this is the be all and end all for realignment, but it matters. Assuming only $100 per ticket, every 10k in capacity represents an increase of $1M in base revenue per game. When you figure concessions, parking and the fact that the average ticket price is more than $100, the program revenue differentials quickly get into the tens of millions per year just based on this. CU needs to get Folsom to over 60,000 (I'd like 65k for the optics of having the largest stadium in the Big 12). And, frankly, once you get below 70k (Washington at #24), it's slim pickings of teams that can legitimately compete to win a national championship. And how many of the programs below #24 actually move the needle for viewership? Is 32, like the NFL, the right number? I tend to think that college football is different and the number is probably 48.
Click to expand...

This is an attendance tracker. https://www.d1ticker.com/2024-fbs-attendance-trends/

Overall taking into account the Covid interruption, it appears overall CFB football attendance is mostly up. Attendance does tend to drop off for teams that are less competitive in their conference, but that is to be expected if a team is mired in a bad season.

I think 60K-65K is a good number for CU. CU does well with Folsom's proximity to DIA and always attracts out of town visitors whether they are CU fans or the opponents. Prime has electrified things. Presuming we stay a competitive program and sort of get over the hump over 5 years, CU likely fills an expanded Folsom. Even when our program was down, many fans still showed up. However, if your school is in an performance/attendance lull, I wonder if ticket prices go down or there are giveaways just to fill the stadium. CU has a good concession cut, so that would offset revenue even if ticket prices went down. Also, CU has a fair amount of parking.

I think CU has done great with their move to the B12. The teams moving to the B12 fared better than those in conferences far away, with some normal excecptions. It is a very bad look if your stadium is less than 70% full. With our old PAC 12 moving is a mixed bag:

Drops in attendance/bad trends:

UCLA--bad season and 5% drop despite moving to B1G. Rose Bowl at 50% capacity.
Wash St.--dropped off a cliff despite an 8-4 season. Only 22,500 per game this year. Attendance down 20%. Might have trouble paying off new stadium expansion.
Stanford--their stadium is still 1/2 full. Dropped 21.5% compared to last season, so they fell off a clip. Declining for many years.
Cal--small uptick this season but they are just 60% full.
USC--held steady but they only drew 5000 more per game. Take into account ND visiting and they are probably on par with last season. I thought joining the B1G would have added 10,000 per game even with a 6-6 season. There is a glitch on the tracker, the Coliseum is about 70% full--they have closed off parts of the stadium for years now. It holds 105K.
UoA--downtick & performance based. About 47K but they are 80% full. Would be worse if ASU game was played in Tempe.

Staying strong not declining:
Oregon
CU
Washington
Utah
ASU--about 49K, 84% full: they had a special season.
Ore St. Despite down season they were down only down 3% but stadium is full. 36K per game. They want a stadium expansion.
 
GRM said:
This is an attendance tracker. https://www.d1ticker.com/2024-fbs-attendance-trends/

Overall taking into account the Covid interruption, it appears overall CFB football attendance is mostly up. Attendance does tend to drop off for teams that are less competitive in their conference, but that is to be expected if a team is mired in a bad season.

I think 60K-65K is a good number for CU. CU does well with Folsom's proximity to DIA and always attracts out of town visitors whether they are CU fans or the opponents. Prime has electrified things. Presuming we stay a competitive program and sort of get over the hump over 5 years, CU likely fills an expanded Folsom. Even when our program was down, many fans still showed up. However, if your school is in an performance/attendance lull, I wonder if ticket prices go down or there are giveaways just to fill the stadium. CU has a good concession cut, so that would offset revenue even if ticket prices went down. Also, CU has a fair amount of parking.

I think CU has done great with their move to the B12. The teams moving to the B12 fared better than those in conferences far away, with some normal excecptions. It is a very bad look if your stadium is less than 70% full. With our old PAC 12 moving is a mixed bag:

Drops in attendance/bad trends:

UCLA--bad season and 5% drop despite moving to B1G. Rose Bowl at 50% capacity.
Wash St.--dropped off a cliff despite an 8-4 season. Only 22,500 per game this year. Attendance down 20%. Might have trouble paying off new stadium expansion.
Stanford--their stadium is still 1/2 full. Dropped 21.5% compared to last season, so they fell off a clip. Declining for many years.
Cal--small uptick this season but they are just 60% full.
USC--held steady but they only drew 5000 more per game. Take into account ND visiting and they are probably on par with last season. I thought joining the B1G would have added 10,000 per game even with a 6-6 season. There is a glitch on the tracker, the Coleausiem is about 70% full--they have closed off parts of the stadium for years now. It holds 105K.
UoA--downtick & performance based. About 47K but they are 80% full. Would be worse if ASU game was played in Tempe.

Staying strong not declining:
Oregon
CU
Washington
Utah
ASU--about 49K, 84% full: they had a special season.
Ore St. Despite down season they were down only down 3% but stadium is full. 36K per game. They want a stadium expansion.
Click to expand...
Speaking of the Coliseum and USC, I think they are going to modernize and lose some capacity in preparation for the LA Olympics. If they do that and hold 75-85k at the end of the process, that's a much better fit for the Trojans. FWIW, Rose Bowl and UCLA should do the same. Especially since Pasadena is a hike from the city and nowhere near campus.
 
hokiehead said:
Texas hasn't sold out a game since they expanded 5 years ago. Not one.
Click to expand...

That's shocking to me.

I went to the 2009 CU game there(which CU led at half!) - I believe that was considered a sellout at just over 101K.

It was completely shocking to me how big that stadium is- I had attended dozens of games in Mile High and it's over 33% bigger in terms of capacity.
 
Buffnik said:
Speaking of the Coliseum and USC, I think they are going to modernize and lose some capacity in preparation for the LA Olympics. If they do that and hold 75-85k at the end of the process, that's a much better fit for the Trojans. FWIW, Rose Bowl and UCLA should do the same. Especially since Pasadena is a hike from the city and nowhere near campus.
Click to expand...
The Rose Bowl stadium won't move down in seating mainly because of the Rose Bowl.
 
patebuff said:
The Rose Bowl stadium won't move down in seating mainly because of the Rose Bowl.
Click to expand...
when I first read this I questioned "is one game a year worth maintaining all that extra space" and then I thought about racing. Indy Motor Speedway holds 400k.
 
patebuff said:
The Rose Bowl stadium won't move down in seating mainly because of the Rose Bowl.
Click to expand...
It wouldn't surprise me if UCLA ended up moving to So-Fi, actually. 70k and half the distance from campus. It's a much better fit. I don't know how revenue projections would compare or what their agreement with the Rose Bowl might be, but the only other factor in the Rose Bowl's favor was tradition and we found out how much that mattered when UCLA left the Pac-12 for more money.
 
Buffnik said:
Speaking of the Coliseum and USC, I think they are going to modernize and lose some capacity in preparation for the LA Olympics. If they do that and hold 75-85k at the end of the process, that's a much better fit for the Trojans. FWIW, Rose Bowl and UCLA should do the same. Especially since Pasadena is a hike from the city and nowhere near campus.
Click to expand...

They will to modernize. The Coliseum is not a great football stadium--it builds out not up. I think they have to maintain the track not just for the Olympics but for Soccer going forward. After the Copa, it turns out most football stadiums are not good soccer fits. They need more space for the corner kicks and size of the pitch.

A So-Fi move would be good for UCLA. Although the Rose Bowl will modernize, that stadium suffers access problems. UCLA is hosed because they lease the Rose Bowl and do not get much if anything for concessions or parking. UCLA's deal with Pasadena is terrible. They have the same problem with Pauley (sp?) Pavilion and a bunch of other fields. Considering a So-Fi deal could really help them--going to the highest bidder. That Athletic Department needs the B1G full share ASAP to keep afloat, or the taxpayers are going to have to bail them out.
 
It’s also important to take the infrastructure of the campus into consideration. At current capacity, the campus is kind of bursting at the seams on gameday. I like the idea of a 65k capacity Folsom, I do wonder what that would do to the overall campus structure.
 
Buffnik said:
It wouldn't surprise me if UCLA ended up moving to So-Fi, actually. 70k and half the distance from campus. It's a much better fit. I don't know how revenue projections would compare or what their agreement with the Rose Bowl might be, but the only other factor in the Rose Bowl's favor was tradition and we found out how much that mattered when UCLA left the Pac-12 for more money.
Click to expand...
i guess playing at sofi would be significantly more expensive than playing at the rose bowl ... plus sofi already has 2 tenants during football season
 
Not Sure said:
It’s also important to take the infrastructure of the campus into consideration. At current capacity, the campus is kind of bursting at the seams on gameday. I like the idea of a 65k capacity Folsom, I do wonder what that would do to the overall campus structure.
Click to expand...
I think it will help when the conference center & hotel are completed on Broadway. The hotel capacity in Boulder has really increased, which is an improvement for football attendance (whether it's flying in or just being able to drive from within the state on Friday and get a room).

I think a key project would be redevelopment of the north side of the creek. Needs to be done regardless because I think that family housing is 40-50 years old. Naropa property is for sale, too, so CU could potentially be purchasing its Arapahoe property near Folsom with Naropa creating a unified campus outside of downtown.
 
Last edited:
Let’s get a Feasibility Study from that fake company that fraudulently distorted CSUs. We could then build out to 100k capacity, find room for two waterfalls, a rollercoaster and sick helipad. I bet we could even engage RTD to collect 50mil in additional taxes to create a Choo Choo train station through Balch Fieldhouse, but where they’d ultimately fail at doing anything 25 years later except for padding their pensions and retirements.
 
Buffnik said:
I think it will help when the conference center & hotel are completed on Broadway. The hotel capacity in Boulder has really increased, which is an improvement for football attendance (whether it's flying in or just being able to drive from within the state on Friday and get a room).

I think a key project would be redevelopment of the north side of the creek. Needs to be done regardless because I think that family housing is 40-50 years old. Bar ops is for sale, too, so CU could potentially be purchasing its Arapahoe property near Folsom with Naropa creating a unified campus outside of downtown.
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Yes, and looks like that is in the works for the master plan. They want to have more student housing down there and have a “main street” and terrace green gathering space that would be pretty sweet for tailgating. Page 38 of the PDF talks about North Boulder Creek plans for anyone interested

Home

www.colorado.edu www.colorado.edu
 

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rosstr said:
Let’s get a Feasibility Study from that fake company that fraudulently distorted CSUs. We could then build out to 100k capacity, find room for two waterfalls, a rollercoaster and sick helipad. I bet we could even engage RTD to collect 50mil in additional taxes to create a Choo Choo train station through Balch Fieldhouse, but where they’d ultimately fail at doing anything 25 years later except for padding their pensions and retirements.
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One Lady Gaga concert would pay for it!
 
rosstr said:
Let’s get a Feasibility Study from that fake company that fraudulently distorted CSUs. We could then build out to 100k capacity, find room for two waterfalls, a rollercoaster and sick helipad. I bet we could even engage RTD to collect 50mil in additional taxes to create a Choo Choo train station through Balch Fieldhouse, but where they’d ultimately fail at doing anything 25 years later except for padding their pensions and retirements.
Click to expand...
I know of 2 stadiums that either had a motorway run under one stand or even a trainline ...
 
Buffnik said:
I think it will help when the conference center & hotel are completed on Broadway. The hotel capacity in Boulder has really increased, which is an improvement for football attendance (whether it's flying in or just being able to drive from within the state on Friday and get a room).

I think a key project would be redevelopment of the north side of the creek. Needs to be done regardless because I think that family housing is 40-50 years old. Bar ops is for sale, too, so CU could potentially be purchasing its Arapahoe property near Folsom with Naropa creating a unified campus outside of downtown.
Click to expand...

I lived in that family housing in 1991 and that place was a dump back then. I'd hate to see what the conditions could be like right now.
 
Interesting article on how Phil Knight’s largesse on facilities for Oregon may not be as much of a boon for the school as it appears and why Oregon was pretty desperate to get the B10 revenue.

billfarley.substack.com

Facility-rich and cash-poor, the Oregon Ducks need your donations

Phil Knight’s financing plan for Oregon’s Best-in-class Arena put the Athletic Department in a huge financial hole. AD Rob Mullens needs your donations to dig out the Ducks.
billfarley.substack.com billfarley.substack.com
 
hokiehead said:
if the P2 broke off and formed their own league...
  • refused to schedule non-conf games outside of the SEC or B1G
  • had their own playoffs and refused to participate in a playoff including other conferences
  • had the vast majority of projected high NFL draft picks
  • cherry picked the best players from non-P2 schools every year in the portal
would you watch that league? would you watch their playoffs? follow the college careers of their players?
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Maybe.

I had almost quit watching football entirely when CU sucked so bad as to have seemingly self selected out of competing.

I watched more college football this year than I have in a very long time.

Point is that if you take CU out of the picture, I stop looking at the picture.

I suspect a lot of college football fans are like me: only half pay attention when their team is committed to turning in 1-3 win seasons, moderately engaged when their team is winning a little more than they lose, and highly engaged when their team is winning a lot.

If the league you describe develops, I'll watch it to the extent CU has success in it.

If CU is not in it, I might watch parts of 6 - 7 games / season, which is pretty much the same number of NFL games I currently watch.

If CU is dominating the next level down, I'm thinking that I'd probably watch more of that level, and effectively zero of the league you describe.
 
Tatanka™ said:
CU with Prime in the group of so-so ratings teams? That is ridiculous. CU is and will continue to be a top 5 ratings team with Prime. Without? We'll see. If Prime sticks around for 5 or 6 years and we hire the right replacement, there is no reason we can't be a top 20 draw after Prime. We were during the McCartney and Neuheisel years.
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CU is not a top 5 ratings team right now, so how we will "continue" to be seems a bit fuzzy.
 
Buffnik said:
I think that if you go by stadium sizes (dedicated, non-shared facilities), you can get pretty damn close to the list of schools with the commitment, resources and fan base to build your top tier football division. I'm only listing schools which are or were in the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC, plus Notre Dame.

1. Michigan (107,600)
2. Penn State (106,562)
3. Ohio State (102, 780)
4. Texas A&M (102,733)
5. LSU (102,321)
6. Tennessee (101,915)
7. Texas (100,119)
8. Alabama (100,077)
9. Georgia (93,033)
10. UCLA (92,542)
11. Nebraska (90,000)
12. Florida (88,548)
13. Auburn (88,043)
14. Clemson (81,500)
15. Oklahoma (80,126)
16. Florida State (79,560)
17. Notre Dame (77,622)
18. South Carolina (77,599)
19. USC (77,500)
20. Arkansas (76,212)
21. Wisconsin (75,822)
22. Michigan State (75,005)
23. Iowa (70,585)
24. Washington (70,083)
25. Pitt (68,400) - shared with Steelers
26. Virginia Tech (65,632)
27. Miami (64,767) - shared with Dolphins
28. Ole Miss (64,038)
29. BYU (63,470)
30. Cal (62,467)
31. Missouri (61,620)
32. Iowa State (61,500)
33. Virginia (61,500)
34. Purdue (61,441)
35. Mississippi State (61,337)
36. Kentucky (61,306)
37. Louisville (60,800)
38. Illinois (60,670)
39. Texas Tech (60,229)
40. West Virginia (60,000)
41. NC State (58,000)
42. Arizona State (56,634)
43. Oklahoma State (55,509)
44. Georgia Tech (55,000)
45. Oregon (54,000)
46. Indiana (52,626)
47. Rutgers (52,454)
48. Maryland (51,802)
49. Utah (51,444)
50. Minnesota (50,805)
51. North Carolina (50,500)
52. Colorado (50,183)
53. Kansas State (50,000)
54. Stanford (50,000)
55. Syracuse (49,057)
56. Baylor (45,140)
57. TCU (45,000)
58. Boston College (44,500)
59. UCF (44,206)
60. Kansas (40,000) - estimate after renovation
61. Vanderbilt (39,790)
62. Cincinnati (38,088)
63. Oregon State (35,548)
64. Northwestern (35,000)
65. Washington State (32,952)
66. SMU (32,000)
67. Wake Forest (31,500)

List of American football stadiums by capacity - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Not that this is the be all and end all for realignment, but it matters. Assuming only $100 per ticket, every 10k in capacity represents an increase of $1M in base revenue per game. When you figure concessions, parking and the fact that the average ticket price is more than $100, the program revenue differentials quickly get into the tens of millions per year just based on this. CU needs to get Folsom to over 60,000 (I'd like 65k for the optics of having the largest stadium in the Big 12). And, frankly, once you get below 70k (Washington at #24), it's slim pickings of teams that can legitimately compete to win a national championship. And how many of the programs below #24 actually move the needle for viewership? Is 32, like the NFL, the right number? I tend to think that college football is different and the number is probably 48.
Click to expand...
CU does not have anywhere near the sustained interest to currently justify expanding by 10k, and doing so before there is sustained apparent need only hampers the long term revenue potential by providing more product than is necessary and thereby driving down demand.
 
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