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First CFP Rankings
- Thread starter The Alabaster Yak
- Start date
Well, considering that a conference with 10 teams may have the worst 2 teams in the P5...
jizzrag85
Well-Known Member
Oregon State and? Everyone else is above .500 besides cal (4-5) I’d say the league is either very average or very competitive. We’ll know when bowl season starts.
He's talking about the Big 12... **** Baylor and Kansas
There is a winless and 1 win team in the Big 12
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
**** BAILER!
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure how UW gets in. They've beaten Fresno......and us. Frankly, I'd have ranked Iowa State ahead of them. Just don't see how they get in with that ugly an L and very little chance to improve their standing.
Normally, I'd be against giving ND a shot because they typically disappoint when they get into big bowls (BCS Era) *See 2013 BCS Championship blowout and last years Fiesta Bowl blowout that looks better than it was because Ohio State let up and 2007 Sugar bowl blowout* but this year they have beat good teams and they actually deserve this one if they win out. Barely lost to Georgia and have been railing teams since. I will be severely disappointed if they fail to show up again in their bowl/playoff game and make for an uninteresting post game appearance yet again.
They obviously need to win out, but they also need USC to win out and get as highly ranked as possible for the P12 CG, and they also probably need Wazzu to keep winning and get as highly ranked as possible for the Apple Cup. UW then needs to crush both of those teams, root for Wisconsin to lose at least once but then upset tOSU in the Big CG, ND needs to lose again, Clemson loses to Va Tech and then the Big 12 teams all beat each other.
Easy Peasy!
Path is not easy, but I think they are going to be big Stanford (play ND to close out the regular season) and USC fans going forward.
Definitely USC; I just figured since WSU and Stanford play each other this weekend, the loser will drop out and the winner will have a chance to boost their ranking. Since UW plays Stanford next week, they aren't going to rise all that much, but if Wazzu wins the next 3 weeks, they could theoretically be top 15-20 for the Apple Cup.
Stanford's potential ranking at 9-3 seems like it would be a fair bit higher than Wazzu at 9-3. Add in that Stanford would be clearing ND out of the picture by beating them and I think Stanford is the team to watch.
Really hard to know though, the Big 12 chaos which almost seems inevitable, along with other scenarios playing out (how far would Georgia or Bama drop with a regular season loss?), sure makes it seem like these rankings are volatile.
jizzrag85
Well-Known Member
Oh that makes more sense lol, I read that as he was talking about the PAC-12.
I see almost no way the Big-12 winner has less than 2 losses. Including the Big-12 championship game:
TCU has Texas and OU
ISU has & WVU and home vs. OSU
OU has OSU this week, TCU next week and WVU the final week of the season.
OSU has OU, ISU and KState back to back to back
That conference could be an absolute disaster at the end of the season lol.
TCU has Texas and OU
ISU has & WVU and home vs. OSU
OU has OSU this week, TCU next week and WVU the final week of the season.
OSU has OU, ISU and KState back to back to back
That conference could be an absolute disaster at the end of the season lol.
The tiebreakers could be really fun to sort out.
You can talk all you want about quality wins and comparative schedules and the rest of it.
Don't forget who pays the bills. Notre Dame equals ratings, somehow someway if it is close they will figure out how to get Notre Dame in there.
Everything being equal some seem to be more equal than others.
Don't forget who pays the bills. Notre Dame equals ratings, somehow someway if it is close they will figure out how to get Notre Dame in there.
Everything being equal some seem to be more equal than others.
I think UW's only chance is for there to end of up with at least 2 other conference champs/ND to end up with 2 losses, plus the Bama/UGA loser to also have 2 losses. Because I don't think that a 1-loss UW gets in over any other 1-loss conference champ or a 1-loss ND, with the possible exception of Miami. Or Wisconsin, as noted above.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
They need chaos in the Big 12, and they need the Big 10 winner to be either one loss Wisconsin or two loss anybody else, and they need Miami to win out. That would eliminate both Clemson and Notre Dame.....and give us an Alabama-Georgia-Miami-UW final four wouldn't it?
I know I am contradicting myself a little here, but even a 1 loss Wisconsin that wins the Big 10 means that they beat Ohio State. Still not quite sure UW gets in over them.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
I think its going to be close-UW can't have WSU lose outside of Stanford until the Apple Cup.....and the Arizona-USC winner can't take a loss until the P12 title game. Wisconsin's body of work is weak-They played Utah State, BYU, and FAU out of conference. Their best wins are probably FAU and 5-3 Northwestern right now.....they've got three tougher games coming up in Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota, but the fact that they missed Penn State and Ohio State really, really hurts them. I don't think they make the playoff if they lose, and I think UW would get in over them with wins over Stanford, WSU, and Arizona/USC.
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Yeah, I just think Wisconsin and Washington have similar resumes right now, outside of Washington's one loss. If Wisconsin loses to say, Michigan, but then beats Ohio State in the Big 10CG, I think that ends up being better than Washington losing to ASU but beating USC in the P12 CG. I guess Wisconsin's loss coming late in the season, compared to Washington, might hurt them a little more, but I would still give the nod to Wiscy in that scenario.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Could be. I doubt we're going to get enough chaos to where we'd to go that far down right now, but you never know.
I realize all these scenarios are under the assumption that UW wins out, but I don't think they're done losing in the regular season, not to mention the conference championship game.
This is why if you are in the top 10, just keep winning - the rest *should* take care of itself.
Beating Ohio State will go a long way, but that will be their only ranked team they've played all year. It's not their fault how the schedule fell, but the West is absolutely horrid. No way do they get in with 1 loss. Think Washington is in the same hole, but less so.
Here are the CFP participants from the last 3 years along with their initial rankings.
2016
1) Alabama 1
2) Clemson 2
3) Ohio State 6
4) Washington 5
2015
1) Clemson 1
2) Alabama 4
3) Michigan State 7
4) Oklahoma 15
2014
1) Alabama 6
2) Oregon 5
3) Florida State 2
4) Ohio State 16
Rule of thumb:
1) win out from this point on
2) Don’t lose more than 1 before this point
The only two schools that achieved these rules and didn’t make the playoff were Baylor and TCU in 2014 when they didn’t have a CCG and the B12 refused to name one a regular season champion over the other. If the Big 12 had a CCG that year, 2014 would still be the only year a team with with one loss that one out from week 10 and only one loss prior didn’t make the playoff.
So, to play this out in 2017, here are the remaining one loss or less teams and their schedules:
2016
1) Alabama 1
2) Clemson 2
3) Ohio State 6
4) Washington 5
2015
1) Clemson 1
2) Alabama 4
3) Michigan State 7
4) Oklahoma 15
2014
1) Alabama 6
2) Oregon 5
3) Florida State 2
4) Ohio State 16
Rule of thumb:
1) win out from this point on
2) Don’t lose more than 1 before this point
The only two schools that achieved these rules and didn’t make the playoff were Baylor and TCU in 2014 when they didn’t have a CCG and the B12 refused to name one a regular season champion over the other. If the Big 12 had a CCG that year, 2014 would still be the only year a team with with one loss that one out from week 10 and only one loss prior didn’t make the playoff.
So, to play this out in 2017, here are the remaining one loss or less teams and their schedules:
- Georgia (SC, #14 Aub, UK, GT, CCG)
- Alabama (#19 LSU, #16 MSST, Mer, #14 Auburn, CCG)
- Notre Dame (Wake, #10 Miami, Navy, #21 Stanford)
- Clemson (#20 NCST, FSU, CIT, SC, CCG)
- Oklahoma (#11 OKST, #8 TCU, KU, WVU, CCG)
- Ohio State (Iowa, #24 MSU, ILL, Mich, CCG)
- Penn State (#24 MSU, RUTG, NEB, MD, possible CCG)
- TCU (UT, #5 OU, TTU, Baylor, CCG)
- Wisconsin (IND, Iowa, Mich, Minn, CCG)
- Miami (#13 VT, #3 ND, UVA, PITT, CCG)
- Oklahoma State (#5 OU, #15 ISU, KUS, KU, CCG)
- Washington (ORE, #21 STAN, Utah, #25 WSU, CCG)
- Virginia Tech (#10 Miami, GT, PITT, UVA, CCG)
- Penn State - wins out, OSU wins out, OSU goes to CCG, Penn State finishes with one loss and has risen in the rankings
- Notre Dame sweeps the rest of the season including two more ranked teams and finishes with an early loss by 1 point on the road to the current #1 team in the country
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Top 4 is the same. Not much really changed except Penn State and Blowhio State fell out as expected. Too add, USC was 11 I think. Just missed a top 10 opponent.
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ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Washington's hopes really improved in the span of six hours on Saturday....They go from 12th and not having much of a shot last week to 9th and potentially two shots at ranked opponents the last two weeks of the season. I think Georgia might be in trouble this weekend-Auburn might be the first team who MIGHT be good enough to take the run away from them.
Need to remind Nik to not put Georgia and Auburn on the pick em list lol, I don't know who to pick in that one. Auburn is capable of beating them imho.