Is CU as much of a rebuilding project as we think?

[Uncle Ken]

2 wins next year would still be a disappointment. After all, we do play CSU and some fricking FCS school.

I'm not counting on any wins. I want to see some improvement in fundamentals, and the appearance of being competitive. Really, I only needed Coach Embree to beat Sac. State and CSU.

I'm aware of our situation, and realize that we'll have to work our way out of this with incremental progress. I can be patience.

Before Rraalph and Sparky chime in, I'll point out that what I saw this year was not incremental progress.

 

[Uncle Ken]

I think I know what nik is up to here. And I like it. Let's change the narrative about CU Football. Instead of continuing to surround the program with a doom and gloom shadow, let's talk up the positives - it will only help us to land a top-tier coach. Focusing on the negative simply ensures that we will be seen as a negative destination for a new coach.

Yes, I do think the table is nearly set for a new coaching staff to come in and turn in a very strong performance.

Well of course he has an agenda. He's a moderator!

 

[J.R. Ewing]

I have wondered how different our offense would have looked with PRich and JT at WR. I think that would have really opened things up for the running game and given the QBs much more time to throw because teams would have had to double at least PRich and still worry about the Thomas boys. If they all get on the same page, I do think the offense could be greatly improved right out of the gate.

I think people overestimate the impact P-rich would have had on this team. Webb really, really, really struggled to complete pass more than 10-15 yards downfield. Some of that was due to lack of revceivers, but I think the lion's share was due to Webb, playcalling, and offensive line problems.

 

[Unleash Hell]

There was enough talent on this team to win 3, maybe 5 games. I think a decent coach can get that out of them right away. It's not that big jump to make.

A decent staff would have won 5-6 games in '10 and '11

 

[White_Rabbit]

I think if Dillon is the real deal it's not a monumental rebuild, but we're still pretty ****ed up. OL concerns me going forward quite a bit, without a decent OL I fear for our offense. DL has some talent but it's pretty young. LB is a mess waiting to happen. CB has some talent, but S looks pretty weak.

 

[fwbuff]

2 wins next year would still be a disappointment. After all, we do play CSU and some fricking FCS school.

I'm past the point of assuming a win against an FCS school.

 

[Rraalph 3000]

Not at all. My argument was always that I thought the worst-case scenario would be that Embree would improve the program's culture and bring in good talent. I expected that after 3 or 4 years we'd know whether he could get the on-field results and that either way we'd be better off for his time here.

Let me summarize my fully argument. The results were so horrifically bad in 2012 that this decision timeline needed to be accelerated. 2013 recruits were not as highly regarded as 2012, some of the best were dropping CU for other offers, and 2014 did not look promising at all. Further, the failure of coordination, scheme and making effective adjustments called into serious question whether Embree was ready to take advantage of the opportunity. Finally, since Embree was replacing at least 1 coordinator and all schemes for next year, he was admitting that a complete re-set was needed. CU has an opportunity to take full advantage of the good work Embree has done by getting a new coach right now and stocking additional talent with more seasoned team, staff & gameday management. If we miss that opportunity by sticking with Embree, we're making a much riskier decision that is much more likely to put CU football into another long-term rebuild situation.

:thumbsup: I can 100% buy this argument, and ultimately would then state that JE and Co. probably were not terrible recruiters as some have alluded to, but when losing by 60 some points a game, I don't care if you're Nick Saban, you're going to have a difficult time getting a HS kid to believe

So I can buy the argument that the opportunity is there....now capitalizing on what you argue remains to be the giant ??? of the day....Can Bohn do it?? or will it be a "Careful What You Wish For" hire

Yes, I admit I am the Nervous Nelly on this whole thing given how important this move and subsequent hire now is to this program

 

[Darian3Hagan]

I dont know. We'll see

 

[BuffClass90]

I know, I know... 7 straight losing seasons, coming off 1-11, statistics that put the team close to last across the board, tons of recent blowout losses, etc., etc.

But bear with me.

Embree and other football guys close to the program feel really good about the young talent on the team.

Those freshmen and sophomores will be sophomores and juniors next year.

Some exciting talent from the 2012 class greyshirted and will be joining in the spring along with a fully healthy Paul Richardson.

Might a coach look at this job and think that 2013 is positioned to be much improved and have confidence that he can both finish the 2013 recruiting class strongly while also pulling in a great 2014 class on the back of new coach excitement, a facilities announcement, and improved W/L results?

I'm thinking that CU may be positioned similarly to how OU was when Stoops took that job. Not "poised for a national title", but "poised for a similar degree of fast improvement" that could launch long-term success.

Thoughts?

Interesting points. I think we were a competent coaching staff away from being 4-8 this year, which is what I expect the new coach to be next year. So 1-11 is a bit inflated due to poor coaching...IMO. Our stats sucked, but our coordinators sucked, experience level isn't great yet and we play some of the most explosive offenses in the country.

Our facilities aren't great, but are mid to lower part of the PAC 12 spectrum...so I've heard. I don't think we are a distant 12th or anything, but could be wrong.

I am actually pretty excited about the young talent...Thomas, Nembot, Dillon, Sefo, Mosley, Wright, Crawley, Abron, Spruce, Tupou, Powell.

So I don't think it a Herculean task. It will be a lot of hard work and struggles, but it is doable for sure.

 

[Dorn09]

The QB situation is my biggest concern.

My biggest concern is the overall lack of team speed. I don't have the stat handy but I would be we are one of the worst teams in the nation for Plays over 20 yards.

 

[seattlebuff]

Still a team with no quality proven qb and a lot of holes at other positions on the 2-deep.

I tend to agree with this less-optimistic apprasial. I get the sense people already think Shane Dillon is going to ride in on a white horse in the spring and be the instant savior. Really? I know he was a blue-chipper, but why'd he come to CU? Until he throws a pass at this level - and puts on about 25 pounds - I'm skeptical. Running the scout team doesn't count. And P-Rich? Sure, he's supposedly healthy but with a surgically repaired knee. We all know what can happen there in an instant ... i.e. Marcus Lattimore and hundreds of others. Plus, he's gonna be double- and triple-teamed next year; look at what happened o him after the big Cal game. Who's going to step up and be the other field stretcher? Gerald Thomas? He's too short and needs serious work on his hands. I like him out of the slot, though. Don't know much about this Jeff Thomas ...

I love all the experience the underclassmen got this year. That can only be a good thing. And returning 17 starters has to count for something. But we've got major holes at LB and D-Line, and zero depth.

 

[wsp4820]

I think people overestimate the impact P-rich would have had on this team. Webb really, really, really struggled to complete pass more than 10-15 yards downfield. Some of that was due to lack of revceivers, but I think the lion's share was due to Webb, playcalling, and offensive line problems.

I know what you are saying, I just feel that if we had a threat at WR things get better for everyone else. As it was, teams knew that they could single cover our guys because they weren't very likely to beat them deep. The ability to basically camp out with 8-9 in the box put extra pressure on the OL, the RBs, and especially the QBs.

Maybe it wouldn't have made any difference, but I'm letting the optimism come back. I'm such a sucker.

 

[Quattro]

I tend to agree with this less-optimistic apprasial. I get the sense people already think Shane Dillon is going to ride in on a white horse in the spring and be the instant savior. Really? I know he was a blue-chipper, but why'd he come to CU? Until he throws a pass at this level - and puts on about 25 pounds - I'm skeptical. Running the scout team doesn't count. And P-Rich? Sure, he's supposedly healthy but with a surgically repaired knee. We all know what can happen there in an instant ... i.e. Marcus Lattimore and hundreds of others. Plus, he's gonna be double- and triple-teamed next year; look at what happened o him after the big Cal game. Who's going to step up and be the other field stretcher? Gerald Thomas? He's too short and needs serious work on his hands. I like him out of the slot, though. Don't know much about this Jeff Thomas ...

I love all the experience the underclassmen got this year. That can only be a good thing. And returning 17 starters has to count for something. But we've got major holes at LB and D-Line, and zero depth.

What exactly do you mean by "why'd he come to CU"?

 

[Buffalo Brad]

:thumbsup: I can 100% buy this argument, and ultimately would then state that JE and Co. probably were not terrible recruiters as some have alluded to, but when losing by 60 some points a game, I don't care if you're Nick Saban, you're going to have a difficult time getting a HS kid to believe

So I can buy the argument that the opportunity is there....now capitalizing on what you argue remains to be the giant ??? of the day....Can Bohn do it?? or will it be a "Careful What You Wish For" hire

Yes, I admit I am the Nervous Nelly on this whole thing given how important this move and subsequent hire now is to this program

Great reply and this story line has been consistent. If we had shown any competiveness in 2012, the class would have hung in and we would not be down this road. It was getting to be such a bad situation with recruiting this year that it would have created that ugle death spiral Nik, myself and others have talked about. A new coach can salvage a transitional class and show competitive progress next year. That is about the only way you break the cycle and not doing it now would have set us back another 5 years.

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

I think Gerald Thomas was way underused last year...pair him with P Rich and you have playmakers

In the end....if Dillon is good, he can get us to 5 or 6 wins

 

[J.R. Ewing]

I know what you are saying, I just feel that if we had a threat at WR things get better for everyone else. As it was, teams knew that they could single cover our guys because they weren't very likely to beat them deep. The ability to basically camp out with 8-9 in the box put extra pressure on the OL, the RBs, and especially the QBs.

Maybe it wouldn't have made any difference, but I'm letting the optimism come back. I'm such a sucker.

Admitting it is the first step.

 

[CUFan]

There is enough talent to be decent. Our success depends on the coach we get. It seems we are not going to make a big splash, so we need to hope we make a Boyle-like hire. I think the odds of such are pretty low.

 

[Walter White]

A good coach will come in and, in the first season, win the non-conference games, one upset, and one agaisnt UU & WSU. That's five wins right there. No problem for a good coach.

 

[NashBuff]

A good coach will come in and, in the first season, win the non-conference games, one upset, and one agaisnt UU & WSU. That's five wins right there. No problem for a good coach.

Wish WSU was on our schedule for 2013. We are swapping out Stanford for Cal and WSU for Oregon State for 2013 and 2014.

 

[Buffnik]

Steve Sarkisian took over an 0-12 UDub team and went 5-7 the next year. Granted, he had a really good QB. Similar to CU, Washington had a good recruiting class the year before Willingham was fired (Top 30) but was bottoming out the next year (finished at #68). The next year, Sark had recruiting back to Top 30. I actually think we can find someone more ready for a BCS job than Sark was, too.

 

[CrosbysLeg]

We don't have nearly enough team speed and our offensive line is atrocious. A better coached team should have managed four wins: CSU, Sac St, Washington State, and Utah. Those were the only teams we were clearly more talented than.

P-Rich is more important to this program than any one else in Boulder. If he can develop good chemistry with whoever our starting QB is next year, he is our lone game-breaker candidate. A few long TDs or 30 to 40 yard receptions that end in field goals/better field position and you might be able to swing 4 or 5 wins.

If the next coach can limit the blowouts, win the easiest 4 games on the schedule and possibly steal one underdog victory, it would be a remarkable success.

 

[somebody]

Not sure I'm buying any experience argument. From what I've read in these pages over the year, technique and schemes have been so bad that these players have regressed. They're older, but does their experience count for much? They've only learned how to lose.

 

[White_Rabbit]

Steve Sarkisian took over an 0-12 UDub team and went 5-7 the next year. Granted, he had a really good QB. Similar to CU, Washington had a good recruiting class the year before Willingham was fired (Top 30) but was bottoming out the next year (finished at #68). The next year, Sark had recruiting back to Top 30. I actually think we can find someone more ready for a BCS job than Sark was, too.

What do you think the new coach can do this year recruiting wise? Dare we dream for a top 40 class?

 

[lawdogg]

What do you think the new coach can do this year recruiting wise? Dare we dream for a top 40 class?

In a word, no.

 

[Walter White]

Wish WSU was on our schedule for 2013. We are swapping out Stanford for Cal and WSU for Oregon State for 2013 and 2014.

Right. Ok. WSU would be preferable, but then again, the pirate might have things going by next year, maybe it's a draw between OSU and WSU. Who knows. Neither have much/any superstar talent.

 

[seattlebuff]

What exactly do you mean by "why'd he come to CU"?

I mean, when was the last time we landed a 4* QB? One who supposedly had the other offers Dillon had (Ohio State, AZ, FSU, right?) Seems too good to be true. My only guess is that Embree sold him that he could start right away. And maybe he would have if he hadn't gotten hurt. But also, maybe he saw that those other schools were bringing in much more talented QBs, and was told so, and he knew CU was his only chance to play at the BCS level.

 

[Buffnik]

What do you think the new coach can do this year recruiting wise? Dare we dream for a top 40 class?

I'm hoping a new coach can somehow get it into the 50s. Worst case, at least keep it in the 60s.

 

[DBT]

You do realize that making this argument means that JE actually wasn't doing as bad a job as you chronicled?

Conversely, the argument could be that there is enough talent here that Embree should have done much better then he did.

 

[Denver_sc]

What exactly do you mean by "why'd he come to CU"?

Yeah, what do you mean by "CU People?!"

We don't have nearly enough team speed and our offensive line is atrocious. A better coached team should have managed four wins: CSU, Sac St, Washington State, and Utah. Those were the only teams we were clearly more talented than.

P-Rich is more important to this program than any one else in Boulder. If he can develop good chemistry with whoever our starting QB is next year, he is our lone game-breaker candidate. A few long TDs or 30 to 40 yard receptions that end in field goals/better field position and you might be able to swing 4 or 5 wins.

If the next coach can limit the blowouts, win the easiest 4 games on the schedule and possibly steal one underdog victory, it would be a remarkable success.

I do not think that word means what you think it means.

 

[BlackNGold]

You are looking too narrowly at rebuilding. It goes way beyond talent for the CU program.

But lets look at talent. I do think that Embree's 2012 recruiting class was pretty decent but Hawkins two classes and the transition year class were below par. Add in that we are now going to bring in a coach that will have about 6 weeks of recruiting with about 3 of that being dead and quiet periods. I expect the we will be looking at 4 out of 5 classes being ranked below 50

2009 - 57th
2010 - 70th
2011 - 62nd
2012 - 29th
2013 ?

With no quarterback and a lot of holes there is too many holes to make a strong run next year. Yes we do return everyone which will help but there are holes. I think the year of experience and better coaching will result in a few more wins but I doubt a bowl game is in the future (although I will probably predict one next August).

For a point of comparison - people thought we had talent equivalent to Utah - they were 5-7 and they got to play us. Add the fact that transitional years are usually not good for coaches. Arizona State got a new coach and improved one win.

The Oklahoma comparison was funny...does not apply one iota to CUs situation but it was funny. Stoops brought in several Jucos to fill holes and OU already had talent on the team.