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Is CU as much of a rebuilding project as we think?

Duff Man said:
Yes.

We lack team speed, have little depth on the OL, and have a major question to answer at QB.
Click to expand...

This. The kool-aid is strong in this forum and people are thinking we have a CHANCE to go to a bowl game. The attitude on this team is absolutely pathetic. The culture showed signs of changing in Embree's first year and completely regressed this past season.

If we can really get buy in I think we can keep a lot of our games closer, barring against the elite teams in the conference. We need to win at home and we need to show signs of life on the road. We haven't shown signs of life on the road in YEARS. Utah was the only game where we didn't mail it in the first quarter. I still contend that Wazzou handed the W to us. We didn't deserve to win that game, but given how they played at the end neither did they.
 
o_robbie said:
I have said this before but our "D" will look so much better if our offense can somehow find away to control the ball for an additional meaningful 10 minutes of the game. Gives them time to make adjustments, rest, get a drink of gatorade etc... before going back on the field.

Our OOC games should be winnable.
Utah, Wash St., UCLA, AZ, AZ St. We would need to win 3 of these and then we are bowl eligible. I still think 4 wins should be the improvement goal but 5 or 6 could be realistic if we start out 3-0
Click to expand...

Disagree with bolded. We actually won TOP in 8 of 12 games last year, including a mind-boggling 41:48 against 'Zona where we still managed to surrender 56 points. Granted, the sheer number of big plays and short scoring drives we allowed deflates our opponents' TOP stats. But, it's not the case that our D was left out on the field too long or ran out of gas because of shortcomings of our offense. The D simply couldn't offer enough resistance to even slow other teams down. If anything, they probably didn't give our offense enough time to rest or make adjustments! :lol:
 
Rraalph 3000 said:
How so? One of the biggest points chronicled was how JE actually was not a very good recruiter in the little time he had....This argument was made with a ton of facts and recruiting class rankings, etc. by Nik and others on this site?

And now there is an argument that those kids he recruited are all talented now?
Click to expand...

Did you see any evidence of a well coached well motivated team in the last 2 years?

Talent means nothing if it is't developed and coached.

Lots of Buffs playing in the NFL from losing CU teams
 
I think the important point is that we are behind the talent curve in our own league, and we're getting behinder this year.
 
Buffnik said:
The QB situation is my biggest concern.
Click to expand...

Yeah we need to improve this position first before we make a big turnaround. The talent on hand still isn't good enough to get by with just a mediocre QB.


I think with a good QB play we could get to 6-6 next yr. Defense can't be worse than last yr. Still I can't predict more than 4 wins next year.
 
We haven't had good qb play in a long ass time. Somebody needs to step up and take it. Hirsch scares me with his feet. He isn't gonna extend plays much unless he can move in the pocket a bit. We don't have a pocket often. This system might help out a bit tho. Truth be told, he's better than I thought he was.
 
I feel the same Nik, but the losing mentality and division of players/locker room will be the biggest concern/fix... I feel like winning cures all ailments. win that first game and start building confidence.
 
hirsh is the leader in the clubhouse as of now... needs to work on at least some foot movement... fales at sjst was a excellent qb that didnt run much and was not fast but at least could move around a bit in the pocket... of course he was accurate as hell
 
gobuffs58 said:
hirsh is the leader in the clubhouse as of now... needs to work on at least some foot movement... fales at sjst was a excellent qb that didnt run much and was not fast but at least could move around a bit in the pocket... of course he was accurate as hell
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I wonder if his accuracy was due to position coaching or the type of offense. In a proset, you have to be good at reads, make quick decisions etc. Maybe a simpler offense would reduce the chances of mistakes/improve accuracy. I don't know...just thinking out loud, so to speak, er type.
 
Yes, It is a big rebuilding job!!!

I firmly believe that CU is way behind in talent level to successfully compete in the PAC 12. I decided to do a little analysis to see how CU stacks up. I used Scout as a source since their data is easier to parse. I broke recruiting rankings down into 3 areas, National Ranking, Avg Stars per class, and difference makers. I should of probably called it potential difference makes - but I used the sum of 4 and 5 star recruits for that category. I am not saying that a 1 star recruit will not be a difference maker but on average you will find a higher percentage of stars coming from those rankings. I used from 2009 thru the 2013 classes as they stand today - since that will be what we are competing with going into next year. I know the 2013 classes can change some but I do not think it will have a big impact on the 5 year analysis.

You will see from the analysis that CU is way behind the conference in these categories. Great coaching alone will not compensate for the lack of talent - most of the other schools have good coaches (Lane Kiffen not included in that Group).

Team2009 Class2010 Class2011 Class2012 Class2013 Class (1/4/13)Five year period
Class Rank Natl.Avg. StarDifference MakersClass Rank Natl.Avg. StarDMClass Rank Natl.Avg. StarDMClass Rank Natl.Avg. StarDMClass Rank Natl.Avg. StarDMAvg. RankAvg. StarsTotal DMs
Arizona472.672392.743702.450462.711232.631452.647
Arizona St.362.8222634642.61432.873382.84241.42.8312
California343.165273.266163.4593435342.92293.1527
Colorado572.631702.430622.481292.661712.54057.82.553
Oregon262.926133.358113.5212153.4810253.387183.3343
Oregon St.482.542672.260432.651442.751472.88149.82.625
Stanford153.4110243.145233.37773.5911553.1324.83.3236
UCLA53.31083.6513552.722123.147103.4710183.2642
USC93.941354.151743.3715203.481194.36149.43.8670
Utah552.562502.641402.92322.753482.540452.688
Washington St.432.72402.762572.341532.521412.68146.82.607
Washington662.580113.139223.085222.964113.25626.43.0024
 
according to those numbers Cal should have a solid year next year since their best classes are more mature and USC should beat the **** out of all of us...good thing stars at USc add up to lots of prima donnas.
 
I think Cal could be similar to UCLA was this year...big improvement. I don't know why things went south for Tedford. Kiffin is a joke and everyone knows it. He builds a bad culture within the program. Remember many were picking USC as a national championship team at the start of the year. A lot of wasted talent.
 
fwbuff said:
Disagree with bolded. We actually won TOP in 8 of 12 games last year, including a mind-boggling 41:48 against 'Zona where we still managed to surrender 56 points. Granted, the sheer number of big plays and short scoring drives we allowed deflates our opponents' TOP stats. But, it's not the case that our D was left out on the field too long or ran out of gas because of shortcomings of our offense. The D simply couldn't offer enough resistance to even slow other teams down. If anything, they probably didn't give our offense enough time to rest or make adjustments! :lol:
Click to expand...

I wasn't looking at this as a TOP thing. While our "D" did give up a lot of homeruns I also saw a lot of games where our "D" was able to hang in there for a half. You can't overcome bad field position and being put in stressful situations all game. As far as TOP we had a ton of meaningless TOP in games where our offense got to move the ball against 3rd stringers in the 4th quarter. I will concede to you that on occasions where our "O" played well our "D" couldn't match them. Honestly both sides of the ball sucked last year badly.
 
BlackNGold said:
I firmly believe that CU is way behind in talent level to successfully compete in the PAC 12. I decided to do a little analysis to see how CU stacks up. I used Scout as a source since their data is easier to parse. I broke recruiting rankings down into 3 areas, National Ranking, Avg Stars per class, and difference makers. I should of probably called it potential difference makes - but I used the sum of 4 and 5 star recruits for that category. I am not saying that a 1 star recruit will not be a difference maker but on average you will find a higher percentage of stars coming from those rankings. I used from 2009 thru the 2013 classes as they stand today - since that will be what we are competing with going into next year. I know the 2013 classes can change some but I do not think it will have a big impact on the 5 year analysis.

You will see from the analysis that CU is way behind the conference in these categories. Great coaching alone will not compensate for the lack of talent - most of the other schools have good coaches (Lane Kiffen not included in that Group).

Team2009 Class2010 Class2011 Class2012 Class2013 Class (1/4/13)Five year period
Class Rank Natl.Avg. StarDifference MakersClass Rank Natl.Avg. StarDMClass Rank Natl.Avg. StarDMClass Rank Natl.Avg. StarDMClass Rank Natl.Avg. StarDMAvg. RankAvg. StarsTotal DMs
Arizona472.672392.743702.450462.711232.631452.647
Arizona St.362.8222634642.61432.873382.84241.42.8312
California343.165273.266163.4593435342.92293.1527
Colorado572.631702.430622.481292.661712.54057.82.553
Oregon262.926133.358113.5212153.4810253.387183.3343
Oregon St.482.542672.260432.651442.751472.88149.82.625
Stanford153.4110243.145233.37773.5911553.1324.83.3236
UCLA53.31083.6513552.722123.147103.4710183.2642
USC93.941354.151743.3715203.481194.36149.43.8670
Utah552.562502.641402.92322.753482.540452.688
Washington St.432.72402.762572.341532.521412.68146.82.607
Washington662.580113.139223.085222.964113.25626.43.0024
Click to expand...

I would love to see you do one of these versus the Mountain West Conference. Without looking at recruiting rankings I assume we are a middle of the pack MWC team as far as difference makers and average stars. That is so terrible!
 
Difference Makers I see are 4 in since 2009 with only 2 remaining on the team.
2012 Yuri Wright
2011 Paulay Asiata
2010 Paul Richardson
2009 Nick Kasa.
 
o_robbie said:
Difference Makers I see are 4 in since 2009 with only 2 remaining on the team.
2012 Yuri Wright
2011 Paulay Asiata
2010 Paul Richardson
2009 Nick Kasa.
Click to expand...

I just went off the summaries that Scout had and they did not update the summaries for 2010 after May and Richardson signed in August. You are correct but the difference between 3 and 4 is minor when the top of the conference has over 30 each.
 
I guess our hope is that Embree turns out to have been a great evaluator.
 
BlackNGold said:
I just went off the summaries that Scout had and they did not update the summaries for 2010 after May and Richardson signed in August. You are correct but the difference between 3 and 4 is minor when the top of the conference has over 30 each.
Click to expand...

I agree. We did sign some very good 3 stars and I really thing Sefo is going to be a difference maker. However, and I have said this before, we need to start signing 4 or 5
4*/5* kids per class because only 50 percent of them work out. We need difference makers who can get on the field early and compete.

My best example of this is Richardson. Look at the difference between a 4 star guy like him and a solid 3 star guy like Nelson Spruce. There is a huge difference in ability.
 
o_robbie said:
I agree. We did sign some very good 3 stars and I really thing Sefo is going to be a difference maker. However, and I have said this before, we need to start signing 4 or 5
4*/5* kids per class because only 50 percent of them work out. We need difference makers who can get on the field early and compete.

My best example of this is Richardson. Look at the difference between a 4 star guy like him and a solid 3 star guy like Nelson Spruce. There is a huge difference in ability.
Click to expand...
Do you have a stat to back that up?

You don't need 4*/5*'s to get to six wins but we need to start beating out other BCS schools for the 3*'s we get. Once we get to 6 wins, we will start to get some 4*'s.
 
Creatini said:
Do you have a stat to back that up?

You don't need 4*/5*'s to get to six wins but we need to start beating out other BCS schools for the 3*'s we get. Once we get to 6 wins, we will start to get some 4*'s.
Click to expand...

^^ This ^^

You have to give kids something to believe in, a reason to pay attention to you. Kids want to win and given a choice will go where they think they can play for a winner.
 
Guys - there is little hope of recruiting at the top of the Pac12 at this point. Coach Mac is going to have to take the talent we have, and coach them up so that we beat teams that are more talented than us. Once that starts to happen, then we can revisit the thermo-nuclear recruiting wars.
 
dio said:
Guys - there is little hope of recruiting at the top of the Pac12 at this point. Coach Mac is going to have to take the talent we have, and coach them up so that we beat teams that are more talented than us. Once that starts to happen, then we can revisit the thermo-nuclear recruiting wars.
Click to expand...

It would do us a world of good just to beat the teams we should. Losing to Hawaii, CSU, and Sac State doesn't do much to inspire kids to want to play for your school. Getting absolutely blown off the field by Fresno is enough to embarass guys who might be interested away. Add to that giving up 50+ in the majority of your games and having an offense that looks like it would have a hard time scoring against a good HS team and no wonder you aren't up in the recruiting rankings.
 
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