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Lookin ahead to 2021-22

AztecBuff

Club Member
Club Member
In case I forget later, wanted to mention I just noticed that this Wednesday (10/13) is Pac 12 Media Day for men's basketball. (Women's bball media day is this Tuesday.):

From what I can see:
  • The Buffs are scheduled to be represented by Coach Boyle, Evan Battey and Elijah Parquet.
  • The day begins with Commissioner Kliavkoff giving opening remarks and answering questions from 11:00-~11:30 AM MT.
  • After that, looks like the Buffs are the 3rd team scheduled for the press conference portion of the event, with their time slot being scheduled for 12:25 PM - 12:40 PM MT. (Looks like these press conferences are available on the Pac 12 Now App, as well as, I'm GUESSING, the Pac 12 website. It's unclear to me, but they MAY (???) also be available on the Pac 12 Networks.)
  • Then, it looks like the team also has a 15 minute (I assume interview) slot scheduled from 3:15-@:3:30 PM MT on the Pac 12 Networks.
  • The Media Day homepage is https://pac-12.com/mens-basketball/media-day-2021.
 

Luke

Well-Known Member
Certainly it's a tough schedule, that if you listen to Tad, he typically wouldn't have scheduled for a young team (Kansas and Tennessee we only got with covid reschedules; Tad talked Tennessee into 3rd game, versus just 2). But when PAC-12/ Big 10 "alliance" starts, hopefully this will become more the norm.

Not that ratings manner at all, once the ball tips in college, but Nique was a four-star that won Colorado Player of the Year, on a 3-A team- no-less (over Luke). He sprouted up that last year & showed ability to play up-tempo 1-3 guard spots that Tad loves, & has only had a couple years getting used to his body. He was the only one in that class that Tad was telling to be ready to play as a Frosh-before 'Kin came back as senior. I think he would be the first to say he was disappointed in his Frosh year. This year: active D & Rbding, hit the occasional 3, & secondary ball-handler; he could look like Eli last year. Then maybe Spencer Dinwiddie ceiling?
 

RollTad21

Club Member
Club Member
Certainly it's a tough schedule, that if you listen to Tad, he typically wouldn't have scheduled for a young team (Kansas and Tennessee we only got with covid reschedules; Tad talked Tennessee into 3rd game, versus just 2). But when PAC-12/ Big 10 "alliance" starts, hopefully this will become more the norm.

Not that ratings manner at all, once the ball tips in college, but Nique was a four-star that won Colorado Player of the Year, on a 3-A team- no-less (over Luke). He sprouted up that last year & showed ability to play up-tempo 1-3 guard spots that Tad loves, & has only had a couple years getting used to his body. He was the only one in that class that Tad was telling to be ready to play as a Frosh-before 'Kin came back as senior. I think he would be the first to say he was disappointed in his Frosh year. This year: active D & Rbding, hit the occasional 3, & secondary ball-handler; he could look like Eli last year. Then maybe Spencer Dinwiddie ceiling?
I see Clifford's ceiling as being significantly lower than Dinwiddie. More like Schwartz.
 

Da Lama

Well-Known Member
Certainly it's a tough schedule, that if you listen to Tad, he typically wouldn't have scheduled for a young team (Kansas and Tennessee we only got with covid reschedules; Tad talked Tennessee into 3rd game, versus just 2). But when PAC-12/ Big 10 "alliance" starts, hopefully this will become more the norm.

Not that ratings manner at all, once the ball tips in college, but Nique was a four-star that won Colorado Player of the Year, on a 3-A team- no-less (over Luke). He sprouted up that last year & showed ability to play up-tempo 1-3 guard spots that Tad loves, & has only had a couple years getting used to his body. He was the only one in that class that Tad was telling to be ready to play as a Frosh-before 'Kin came back as senior. I think he would be the first to say he was disappointed in his Frosh year. This year: active D & Rbding, hit the occasional 3, & secondary ball-handler; he could look like Eli last year. Then maybe Spencer Dinwiddie ceiling?

This seems appropriate here:
Drawing Motivation GIF
 

Robert Sorell

Well-Known Member
We lost the second greatest player in school history. We lost our starting SG. We lost our starting PF. We lost two bench players and our best freshman is out for the year. Our second best freshman is going to have to share minutes with the heartbeat of the team and a potential first round pick.

The future is insanely bright, but this year NIT is an acceptable goal.
I'd say NIT is an acceptable outcome, and The Dance is the proper goal every year going forward.
 

Buffsbball

Well-Known Member
Surprised OSU is tied for fourth, and ahead of us, with their star Ethan Thompson gone. They do still have a veteran team
Media love March Madness. A lot of time their only exposure to Pac 12 basketball. They made the elite 8 and won the conference tourney. Tinkle is a good coach. I agree though I have a tough time seeing 4th. If we are getting downgraded for losing our best player/heart and soul so should they! People forget they finished 6th in the regular season in the P-12. I like our roster better than theirs!
 

Buffsbball

Well-Known Member
Tristan getting some pub!
 

Luke

Well-Known Member
Surprised OSU is tied for fourth, and ahead of us, with their star Ethan Thompson gone. They do still have a veteran team
I question wheter Lucas, Hunt, and the other OSU guards can live up to the high expectations/ predictions too.

But their bigs/forward depth is tough: Alatishe w/ hops; Silva & Chol Marial w/ size; Calloo, Andela and Tucker w/ D, Rbding and shooting.

Play of wings may be difference maker for OSU: maybe Sophomore Isiah Johnson and/or Frosh Glen Taylor, but probably tough Jr College transfer- Ahmad Rand.
 

Luke

Well-Known Member
Yeah, the Wazzu and Stanford love that was being thrown around is just goofy.

No need to hate on your fellow college b-ball lovers! I respect your differences of opinion too!

I just said WSU has best underclassmen group this year, after CU! And Stanford is next in line for that distinction- ie: next year, Stanford may have 1 of the best group of underclassmen. Though Stanford's Frosh Isa Silva is already my new fav PAC-12 player to LOVE HATING! Gustiest PAC guy since,... well 'Kin Wright!

Or maybe you just mean "goofy...love" from guys like Jon Wilner's PAC-12 Hotline who picked WSU 4th? But I can't wait to watch which players & teams step up!
 

Luke

Well-Known Member
No need to hate on your fellow college b-ball lovers! I respect your differences of opinion too!

I just said WSU has best underclassmen group this year, after CU! And Stanford is next in line for that distinction- ie: next year, Stanford may have 1 of the best group of underclassmen. Though Stanford's Frosh Isa Silva is already my new fav PAC-12 player to LOVE HATING! Gustiest PAC guy since,... well 'Kin Wright!

Or maybe you just mean "goofy...love" from guys like Jon Wilner's PAC-12 Hotline who picked WSU 4th? But I can't wait to watch which players & teams step up!
My BAD! Wilner picked OSU 4th and Wazzu 5th! Yea, I've been wondering what Jon's smoking out there in San Jose with some of his predictions this year too!
 

Goose

Hoops Moderator
Club Member
Junta Member
OK, the Da Silva discussion has been bothering me for a few weeks now. I realize in the world of sports message boards, there is no room between "Future Naismith Award Winner" and "Waste of Scholarship", but I'm nowhere near as high as a lot of posters are on him. For the record, I view him as a solid player who is a glue guy that should get rotation minutes off of the bench all four years here but never starts. I hope I'm wrong. It would be fun for him to be a starter and turn into a badass. I personally just don't see it. So with that disclaimer out of the way...

I was looking over his KenPom numbers. And honestly, except for a 7 game stretch (and really, it's a four game stretch with three "meh" games at the end), he was pretty generic. Which is what you expect from a freshman who wasn't highly recruited. But I feel like people are paying more attention to that 7 (4) game stretch than the other 20+ games. And I did this exercise with Dinwiddie after his freshman year to predict he was going to be a star (I have a 100% average so clearly this is FACT and you can't argue) so I figured I'd do the same thing with Da Silva because I don't want to work right now. I basically took the five "most comparable" players to him and figured out how they did the next year compared to the year that was most comparable for Da Silva. Again, small sample size and with these five there are a few other variables that cause it to be even more sporadic with predictions, but it could at least give us a guide. For those that don't have KenPom subscriptions, I shame you, but give you the five comps:

* Niels Giffey 2011 (UConn)
* Yavuz Gultekin 2020 (Texas A&M)
* Keith Smith 2017 (Oregon)
* Chris Jones 2014 (Pitt)
* Alex Illikainen 2016 (Wisconsin)

The two weird results, that may not change the results but are worth pointing out are that Gultekin transferred to San Diego for the follow up year, so he was going against lower quality competition and Jones jumped from 7.4 mpg to 27.4 mpg. Now, with all of that said, here's how the numbers jumped on average:

* %Min - 190%
* ORtg - 96.5%
* %Poss - 102%
* eFG% - 94%
* TS% - 94%
* Offensive Rebound% - 92%
* Defensive Rebound% - 121%
* Assist Rate - 109%
* TORate - 97%

TL;DR version - minutes went up a lot, but efficiency went down (which makes sense). Most of inefficiency comes from shooting %, but they got better passing the ball and not losing it and grabbing defensive rebounds. So with that, we would get the following numbers from Da Silva:

% Min​
ORtg​
Poss%​
eFG%​
TS%​
OR%​
DR%​
ARate​
TORate​
Da Silva ('20)17.398.216.756.957.34.59.26.924.5
Da Silva ('21*)32.994.817.053.753.64.111.17.623.8

So, in conclusion, there is nothing in the numbers to suggest that Da Silva is going to make the jump that people seem to be projecting. Doesn't mean it won't happen. Lord knows we've seen stranger things. But I feel like it's unfair to the kid to be putting these sorts of expectations on him. I think it's more likely that he ends up being a Chen - a kid who plays a few solid minutes and provides defense and maybe in his senior year ends up getting some quality minutes while never carrying the team.
 

torerobuff

Dancing is forbidden
Club Member
OK, the Da Silva discussion has been bothering me for a few weeks now. I realize in the world of sports message boards, there is no room between "Future Naismith Award Winner" and "Waste of Scholarship", but I'm nowhere near as high as a lot of posters are on him. For the record, I view him as a solid player who is a glue guy that should get rotation minutes off of the bench all four years here but never starts. I hope I'm wrong. It would be fun for him to be a starter and turn into a badass. I personally just don't see it. So with that disclaimer out of the way...

I was looking over his KenPom numbers. And honestly, except for a 7 game stretch (and really, it's a four game stretch with three "meh" games at the end), he was pretty generic. Which is what you expect from a freshman who wasn't highly recruited. But I feel like people are paying more attention to that 7 (4) game stretch than the other 20+ games. And I did this exercise with Dinwiddie after his freshman year to predict he was going to be a star (I have a 100% average so clearly this is FACT and you can't argue) so I figured I'd do the same thing with Da Silva because I don't want to work right now. I basically took the five "most comparable" players to him and figured out how they did the next year compared to the year that was most comparable for Da Silva. Again, small sample size and with these five there are a few other variables that cause it to be even more sporadic with predictions, but it could at least give us a guide. For those that don't have KenPom subscriptions, I shame you, but give you the five comps:

* Niels Giffey 2011 (UConn)
* Yavuz Gultekin 2020 (Texas A&M)
* Keith Smith 2017 (Oregon)
* Chris Jones 2014 (Pitt)
* Alex Illikainen 2016 (Wisconsin)

The two weird results, that may not change the results but are worth pointing out are that Gultekin transferred to San Diego for the follow up year, so he was going against lower quality competition and Jones jumped from 7.4 mpg to 27.4 mpg. Now, with all of that said, here's how the numbers jumped on average:

* %Min - 190%
* ORtg - 96.5%
* %Poss - 102%
* eFG% - 94%
* TS% - 94%
* Offensive Rebound% - 92%
* Defensive Rebound% - 121%
* Assist Rate - 109%
* TORate - 97%

TL;DR version - minutes went up a lot, but efficiency went down (which makes sense). Most of inefficiency comes from shooting %, but they got better passing the ball and not losing it and grabbing defensive rebounds. So with that, we would get the following numbers from Da Silva:

% Min​
ORtg​
Poss%​
eFG%​
TS%​
OR%​
DR%​
ARate​
TORate​
Da Silva ('20)17.398.216.756.957.34.59.26.924.5
Da Silva ('21*)32.994.817.053.753.64.111.17.623.8

So, in conclusion, there is nothing in the numbers to suggest that Da Silva is going to make the jump that people seem to be projecting. Doesn't mean it won't happen. Lord knows we've seen stranger things. But I feel like it's unfair to the kid to be putting these sorts of expectations on him. I think it's more likely that he ends up being a Chen - a kid who plays a few solid minutes and provides defense and maybe in his senior year ends up getting some quality minutes while never carrying the team.

Playing devil's advocate, with a little bit of my opinion on Tristan thrown in... I'm see him improving based on pedigree. If he continues to improve, which I think he will, because he absolutely improved as the year went on last year, if he becomes 50% of the player that his brother was, that's a really solid Pac-12 starter. His per 40 counting stats look strong in comparison to his brother, it is highly unlikely he'll ever get close to Oscar's scoring ability, but if he can do the other things his brother did well, that's really good piece to have.
 

Goose

Hoops Moderator
Club Member
Junta Member
Playing devil's advocate, with a little bit of my opinion on Tristan thrown in... I'm see him improving based on pedigree. If he continues to improve, which I think he will, because he absolutely improved as the year went on last year, if he becomes 50% of the player that his brother was, that's a really solid Pac-12 starter. His per 40 counting stats look strong in comparison to his brother, it is highly unlikely he'll ever get close to Oscar's scoring ability, but if he can do the other things his brother did well, that's really good piece to have.

That's a dangerous comparison to make though. Oscar came in as a top 150 recruit according to 247 and played almost 60% of Stanford's minutes as a freshman. He had an ORtg of 107.5 and both eFG% and TS% were over 60% that year too. Really, everything for Oscar was higher than Tristan's freshman numbers (including TORate which is a plus for Tristan). Not only that, but watching them, I don't see a whole lot of similarities in their games. If it wasn't for their bloodlines, I wouldn't even think of comparing them.
 
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