Lookin ahead to 2021-22

[Da Lama]

Playing devil's advocate, with a little bit of my opinion on Tristan thrown in... I'm see him improving based on pedigree. If he continues to improve, which I think he will, because he absolutely improved as the year went on last year, if he becomes 50% of the player that his brother was, that's a really solid Pac-12 starter. His per 40 counting stats look strong in comparison to his brother, it is highly unlikely he'll ever get close to Oscar's scoring ability, but if he can do the other things his brother did well, that's really good piece to have.

I think he can be a 7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 AST with solid D and gritty effort guy this year. Glue guy who can play a couple different roles. We're in good shape if he can do this in 21-22.

 

[jumped ship]

OK, the Da Silva discussion has been bothering me for a few weeks now. I realize in the world of sports message boards, there is no room between "Future Naismith Award Winner" and "Waste of Scholarship", but I'm nowhere near as high as a lot of posters are on him. For the record, I view him as a solid player who is a glue guy that should get rotation minutes off of the bench all four years here but never starts. I hope I'm wrong. It would be fun for him to be a starter and turn into a badass. I personally just don't see it. So with that disclaimer out of the way...

I was looking over his KenPom numbers. And honestly, except for a 7 game stretch (and really, it's a four game stretch with three "meh" games at the end), he was pretty generic. Which is what you expect from a freshman who wasn't highly recruited. But I feel like people are paying more attention to that 7 (4) game stretch than the other 20+ games. And I did this exercise with Dinwiddie after his freshman year to predict he was going to be a star (I have a 100% average so clearly this is FACT and you can't argue) so I figured I'd do the same thing with Da Silva because I don't want to work right now. I basically took the five "most comparable" players to him and figured out how they did the next year compared to the year that was most comparable for Da Silva. Again, small sample size and with these five there are a few other variables that cause it to be even more sporadic with predictions, but it could at least give us a guide. For those that don't have KenPom subscriptions, I shame you, but give you the five comps:

* Niels Giffey 2011 (UConn)
* Yavuz Gultekin 2020 (Texas A&M)
* Keith Smith 2017 (Oregon)
* Chris Jones 2014 (Pitt)
* Alex Illikainen 2016 (Wisconsin)

The two weird results, that may not change the results but are worth pointing out are that Gultekin transferred to San Diego for the follow up year, so he was going against lower quality competition and Jones jumped from 7.4 mpg to 27.4 mpg. Now, with all of that said, here's how the numbers jumped on average:

* %Min - 190%
* ORtg - 96.5%
* %Poss - 102%
* eFG% - 94%
* TS% - 94%
* Offensive Rebound% - 92%
* Defensive Rebound% - 121%
* Assist Rate - 109%
* TORate - 97%

TL;DR version - minutes went up a lot, but efficiency went down (which makes sense). Most of inefficiency comes from shooting %, but they got better passing the ball and not losing it and grabbing defensive rebounds. So with that, we would get the following numbers from Da Silva:

	% Min​	ORtg​	Poss%​	eFG%​	TS%​	OR%​	DR%​	ARate​	TORate​
Da Silva ('20)	17.3	98.2	16.7	56.9	57.3	4.5	9.2	6.9	24.5
Da Silva ('21*)	32.9	94.8	17.0	53.7	53.6	4.1	11.1	7.6	23.8

So, in conclusion, there is nothing in the numbers to suggest that Da Silva is going to make the jump that people seem to be projecting. Doesn't mean it won't happen. Lord knows we've seen stranger things. But I feel like it's unfair to the kid to be putting these sorts of expectations on him. I think it's more likely that he ends up being a Chen - a kid who plays a few solid minutes and provides defense and maybe in his senior year ends up getting some quality minutes while never carrying the team.

Appreciate you taking a quantitative approach to this / glad we could provide a distraction from work

You're right, that solid run he had (and that buzzer beating 1st half fadeaway 3 against Furd) are causing me to over-index. To expand on why I think he could make a jump:

- he showed a level-headed demeanor that you typically expect from euro kids who play more "mature"
- reports of him being highly coachable and intelligent
- size and athleticism compared to someone like Chen (or even Austin D in a lot of ways)
- he was buried behind experienced forwards, and did not get as many minutes to develop as he would have in most other years (seriously, when was the last time we had a team with upperclassmen forwards of the same quality as Horne, Schwartz, Battey, plus a freshman like Walker)
- good shooting mechanics
- as Torero mentioned, comes from a good basketball family

All that being said. KJ is really my player to watch. He has the right combination of offensive skills and a fearless mentality. Plus him playing against the highest level competition in CA will make the transition to college easier.

 

[Goose]

I think he can be a 7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 AST with solid D and gritty effort guy this year. Glue guy who can play a couple different roles. We're in good shape if he can do this in 21-22.

7 PPG seems high (to me), but I think this is very fair and damn accurate. Again, this is NOT a bad player's statline. This is a rotation player on a tourney team's statline. But expecting him to hit 9-10 is unfair to the kid.

 

[jumped ship]

7 PPG seems high (to me), but I think this is very fair and damn accurate. Again, this is NOT a bad player's statline. This is a rotation player on a tourney team's statline. But expecting him to hit 9-10 is unfair to the kid.

I see this as 7 PPG with consistency. More 5s and 9s than 0s and 14s.

 

[BuffsNYC]

7 PPG seems high (to me), but I think this is very fair and damn accurate. Again, this is NOT a bad player's statline. This is a rotation player on a tourney team's statline. But expecting him to hit 9-10 is unfair to the kid.

Maybe not this season, but I think by the time he's done here his stats will top Siewart's 8 points/4 rebs per game his senior year. I still think da Silva rounds into a better all-around scorer Siewart.

 

[Goose]

I see this as 7 PPG with consistency. More 5s and 9s than 0s and 14s.

I get that, but 7 ppg would have had him either 5th or 6th on the team in scoring last year (Walker was fifth with 7.6 ppg). If he's outscoring the following players, we're either having a horrible year or he's taken off and we are in a very good place:

* Battey
* Walker
* Parquet
* Lovering
* Simpson
* Kee

 

[Da Lama]

I see this as 7 PPG with consistency. More 5s and 9s than 0s and 14s.

Yup. I see this as easy money TBH. One 2pt jumper, One scrappy And1 put back, One nice back cut layup= 7pts

 

[Da Lama]

I get that, but 7 ppg would have had him either 5th or 6th on the team in scoring last year (Walker was fifth with 7.6 ppg). If he's outscoring the following players, we're either having a horrible year or he's taken off and we are in a very good place:

* Battey
* Walker
* Parquet
* Lovering
* Simpson
* Kee

What about something like this?

Walker 12.4
Battey 12.1
Parquet 8.1
Barthelemy 7.5
Da Silva 6.8
Clifford 6.4
Simpson 5.8
O'Brien 5.5
Lovering 4.1
Hammond 2.2
Ruffin 1

 

[Goose]

What about something like this?

Walker 12.4
Battey 12.1
Parquet 8.1
Barthelemy 7.5
Da Silva 6.8
Clifford 6.4
Simpson 5.8
O'Brien 5.5
Lovering 4.1
Hammond 2.2
Ruffin 1

With the disclaimer that I never know what to do with freshman big men, my initial thoughts are that you have Lovering too low and O'Brien WAY too high.

 

[Robert Sorell]

How do we all predict the minutes change from last year?

Rk	Player	G	GS	MPV	FG	FGA	FG%	2P	2PA	2P%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
1	McKinley Wright IV	32	32	1042	178	371	.480	150	278	.540	28	93	.301	103	122	.844	27	112	139	182	34	9	68	50	487
2	Eli Parquet	31	31	867	59	124	.476	36	69	.522	23	55	.418	21	23	.913	15	49	64	40	26	23	31	65	162
3	DShawn Schwartz	30	29	839	98	238	.412	52	123	.423	46	115	.400	38	52	.731	30	92	122	38	15	4	45	67	280
4	Evan Battey	32	32	821	108	217	.498	106	200	.530	2	17	.118	104	126	.825	61	107	168	31	13	9	51	80	322
5	Jeriah Horne	32	9	784	123	270	.456	71	139	.511	52	131	.397	48	53	.906	36	151	187	29	19	2	35	51	346
6	Maddox Daniels	32	3	584	59	155	.381	21	52	.404	38	103	.369	13	15	.867	14	62	76	32	15	2	16	46	169
7	Dallas Walton	26	23	387	55	100	.550	46	81	.568	9	19	.474	49	58	.845	21	52	73	13	12	17	23	59	168
8	Jabari Walker	26	0	369	70	133	.526	47	89	.528	23	44	.523	35	45	.778	34	79	113	13	12	12	28	55	198
9	Keeshawn Barthelemy	30	1	345	42	119	.353	25	63	.397	17	56	.304	11	12	.917	7	16	23	42	7	6	22	11	112
10	Tristan Da Silva	24	0	222	27	51	.529	23	36	.639	4	15	.267	7	12	.583	8	17	25	8	8	2	15	24	65
11	Nique Clifford	14	0	56	3	21	.143	1	15	.067	2	6	.333	6	9	.667	0	4	4	5	5	1	2	9	14
12	Luke OBrien	10	0	45	6	14	.429	4	7	.571	2	7	.286	1	4	.250	3	4	7	2	1	0	0	4	15
13	Alexander Strating	10	0	25	0	1	.000	0	1	.000	0	0		0	2	.000	2	3	5	1	0	1	1	4	0
	School Totals	32		6400	828	1815	.456	582	1154	.504	246	661	.372	438	535	.819	312	801	1113	436	167	88	364	526	2340

[thead] [/thead]

Provided by CBB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 10/15/2021.

Between Kin, D'Shawn, Jeriah, Maddox, and Dallas there are >3600 minutes over 32 games (~114 MPG) to go around

Assuming health:

Eli and Evan, small jump to 30 MPG each covers about +200 minutes combined
Jabari is up to about 25 MPG, playing every game, thats about +400 minutes
Kee is up to 22-25 MPG, +450
Tristan at about 18-20 MPG, +350
Nique and Luke? 500 minutes total that's +400 over last year

That leaves about 1,800 minutes for the new guys

KJ = 600
Julian = 500
Lawson = 600
Javon = ?try to redshirt, or do you need him to fill minutes?

 

[Darth Snow]

Ullr bless you all for this great discussion

 

[Buffnik]

Wow. I'm pretty much blown away by @Goose thinking Da Silva is a future Naismith candidate.

 

[AztecBuff]

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

Anyone attend the open practice?

 

[DBT]

Anyone attend the open practice?

Yes

 

[Luke]

Oscar da Silva is the one that said “my brother has more skills than me.” Which I interpret as Tristan may never be the beast on the low block that Oscar was, but may have better ball handling, driving, play-making and passing than Oscar. Tristan said he has a 2-guard’s game in his first interview in Colorado. Oscar was primarily a 3-ball threat with big minutes as Frosh (think his 3-ball percentages went down slightly each year with higher usage), so may be hard to say if Tristan becomes as consistent as of a shooter as his brother. But Tristan was killing it in Europe this summer and Evan Battey said Tristan is one most improved players on team since last year (including vocal leadership). I honestly think he’s got chance to be next Buff-after Jabari- to develop an NBA game. His Euro-step is elite for his size.

 

[Buffnik]

My hope is that Tristan's game & stat line becomes the college version of Jae Crowder.

 

[Robert Sorell]

I'm on the 2023 Tristan da Silva Naismith Trophy winner hype train now.

 

[cmgoods]

#35 in the KenPom preseason rankings

 

[RiverBuff]

#35 in the KenPom preseason rankings


View attachment 47545

Interestingly, but not surprising, is that puts us #4 in conference vs. the prediction of 6th.

At home with #3 Kansas and #13 Tenn. Big games, but nobody ever says "our next game is a Small game".

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

Yes

Observations?

 

[DBT]

Observations?

I wasn’t there. But someone was.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

I wasn’t there. But someone was.

Well, I guess that's an observation. In absentia.

 

[DBT]

Well, I guess that's an observation. In absentia.

I’d like to hear how it went as well.

 

[AztecBuff]

Buffzone (Pat Rooney) notes from the scrimmage.

 

[Luke]

I’d like to hear how it went as well.

Adam Munsterteiger @adamcm777 has a dozen or so Twitter observations during scrimmage. Others on Twitter at scrimmage said team looks to have stronger shooters than last year’s team.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

Buffzone (Pat Rooney) notes from the scrimmage.

Thanx 4 the link.

Pretty generic stuff.

 

[Luke]

Sorry, video clip of Kee swishing 3’s before scrimmage-from Adam’s Twitter-not attaching above.

Regard KenPom: I do appreciate my prediction of CU’s 4th place PAC-12 finish being validated by his preseason stats!

Curious if following KenPom trends/ predictions hold true:
-USC better team than Oregon?
-Hate to admit both Arizona schools look strong. I do love to hate them!
-7th place WSU & 8th place Stanford higher adjusted pace than CU? I think CU’s pace & AdjO both may be higher, with CU’s strong O team. I’m sure Tad prefers to see KenPom correct: with CU better on D, than they are on O!
-9th place OSU having such low Adjusted Efficiency Margin? Seems like last year they had better D than KenPom giving them credit for? But maybe they won’t be so good on D? I’m probably just remembering how good D looked in PAC-12 tourney & NCAA tourney runs.

 

[cmgoods]

Full men's preseason AP Top 25:​

1. Gonzaga
2. UCLA
3. Kansas
4. Villanova
5. Texas
6. Michigan
7. Purdue
8. Baylor
9. Duke
10. Kentucky
11. Illinois
12. Memphis
13. Oregon
14. Alabama
15. Houston
16. Arkansas
17. Ohio State
18. Tennessee
19. North Carolina
20. Florida State
21. Maryland
22. Auburn
23. St. Bonaventure
24. UConn
25. Virginia

Others receiving votes: Michigan State 87, Indiana 41, USC 30, Arizona 26, Virginia Tech 25, Oklahoma State 25, Xavier 22, Texas Tech 17, Richmond 13, Rutgers 11, Colorado State 11, LSU 7, Belmont 7, San Diego State 5, St. John's 5, Mississippi State 5, Syracuse 5, Drake 4, Colorado 4, BYU 3, Notre Dame 3, Louisville 3

 

[Robert Sorell]

#35 in the KenPom preseason rankings


View attachment 47545

Does anyone have a good sense of the KenPom method for these? All I could find was a post from 2016 about how he updated it to include transfers, and noted that other than guys who are like top 30 prospects incoming freshmen are treated more like the average player for that program.

I think that could bode well for this sort of undervaluing KJ and Lawson who are near the higher end of prospects that are lumped together as outside of top 30.