BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
Does Georgia start garnering some attention with a win over the vols?
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Official 2014 Bubble Watch Thread
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
It would take more than that. Right now, Georgia separating for 3rd in the SEC is pretty much making CU's win look good while making the 4th place team very questionable for a bid.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Ole Miss severely damaged themselves losing to Alabama and Georgia last week. You just can't do that. They need both. A home win over Kentucky isn't going to carry enough weight. Florida needs to be beaten for them to get back in the picture.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Wednesday:
Our Buffs 19-7 (8-5) host Arizona State 19-6 (8-4). Another huge one, folks. CU RPI 27, ASU 30. This is a game where we show the committee we belong post-Spencer. CU is generally seen as a 9 or 10 right now, while ASU's win over Zona has them in the 8-9 seed range. Here's a chance for a valuable top 50 win. A chance to get to that aesthetically pleasing 20 win mark. A chance to pull even with ASU in the Pac standings. A chance to put an end to this ****ing miserable run of 3 losses to these scumbags. Enough is enough. A win here and we're right on the brink of safety. A loss and it's increasingly hard to see where remaining wins come from and our hopes of top 4 are all but gone.
Xavier 17-8 (7-5) vs DePaul 10-16 (2-11): Xavier remains on the right side of things. RPI is 43, they're likely an 11 seed currently. They've got a valuable win over Cincinnati and some nice wins over bubble squads. A couple boneheaded losses to USC and Seton Hall are what bring them down. They've got a nasty stretch of @ Georgetown, @ St. John's, Creighton and Villanova coming up. They'll need to find a way to win one or two of those to ensure safety. Obviously a home loss to DePaul will single handedly do major damage. Can't happen.
St. Joseph's 17-7 (7-3) @ Rhode Island 11-15 (2-9): St. Joes's has put themselves in good shape with recent wins over UMass and VCU. RPI is 40, currently likely an 11 seed. They've got a very manageable remaining stretch. Unless they pick up a couple bad losses, they should be pretty safe by A10 tournament time.
Marquette 15-10 (7-5) vs #11 Creighton 21-4 (11-2): Marquette is making a last ditch run. RPI is 72 so there's still major work to do. They've beaten teams like Xavier and Georgetown, but lack any "great" wins. Also have 1 bad loss (Butler). Still, Creighton presents a chance for that big win, and Villanova, Georgetown, Providence and St. John's remain. It's a tall order, but if Marquette wins a few of these their resume can become Big Dance caliber in a hurry.
SMU 20-6 (9-4) vs Houston 12-13 (4-8): I put SMU here because they just took a horrendous loss to Temple. They are absolutely still on the right side of things, likely as a 9 or 10 seed. However, their RPI has fallen to 47. If they were to lose to lowly Houston, things would start getting dicey for Larry Brown's squad.
Missouri 18-7 (6-6) vs Vanderbilt 14-10 (6-6): Missouri is coming off a close home win over fellow bubble team Tennessee. They're likely in the field at the moment as an 11 seed. Their RPI is up to 39 and that OOC win over UCLA is looking better and better, and the home loss to Georgia not so awful anymore. The remaining schedule is very favorable, but that means they can't help themselves because there is currently not one opponent in the top 50 (Tennessee is close) and most are well below 100. That means losses can be very damaging. Knowing Missouri, they'll pick up at least one bad loss in this final stretch and have a nervous selection Sunday. An NCAA Tournament team shouldn't be sitting 6-6 in the SEC, but that's how weak the bubble is at the moment.
Oregon 16-8 (4-8) vs Washington 14-12 (6-7): Oregon kept hopes alive with a win over Oregon State. RPI is a surprisingly high 41. Remaining schedule is home heavy and favorable. Ducks still have a shot. Beating Washington at home is certainly a must.
Minnesota 17-9 (6-7) vs Illinois 14-12 (3-10): Gophers are coming off a crucial win at Northwestern. They're currently a 10 or 11. RPI is a solid 34. However, they'd better beat the Illini because they're about to hit a nasty stretch of @ Ohio State, Iowa, @ Michigan. Looks like an 8-10 B1G record is coming for the Gophers, but that will get them in.
Cal 17-8 (8-4) vs #23 UCLA 20-5 (9-3): Cal went up to Washington and Wazzu and took care of business. RPI is 44 and they're a 9 or 10 at the moment. Needless to say, beating UCLA would be a big resume booster. It would be tough to leave Cal out if they win this. However, the flip side is the remaining schedule is challenging with a road trip to Arizona and ASU, along with visits from CU and feisty Utah. Cal could finish the season on a bad note and make things shaky if not careful. When your RPI is 44 you can't rest easy, and this is the 1 team that managed to get outplayed by USC for 40 minutes. Anything is possible with Cal.
Lastly, I've been seeing some increasing inquiry on Utah. Their RPI is 92 and their OOC SOS was 346. They played multiple division II teams. Even if they beat Arizona tomorrow they're not in the picture as far as I'm concerned. They'd need to win like every remaining game and do major damage in the Pac12 tournament to have any shot.
Our Buffs 19-7 (8-5) host Arizona State 19-6 (8-4). Another huge one, folks. CU RPI 27, ASU 30. This is a game where we show the committee we belong post-Spencer. CU is generally seen as a 9 or 10 right now, while ASU's win over Zona has them in the 8-9 seed range. Here's a chance for a valuable top 50 win. A chance to get to that aesthetically pleasing 20 win mark. A chance to pull even with ASU in the Pac standings. A chance to put an end to this ****ing miserable run of 3 losses to these scumbags. Enough is enough. A win here and we're right on the brink of safety. A loss and it's increasingly hard to see where remaining wins come from and our hopes of top 4 are all but gone.
Xavier 17-8 (7-5) vs DePaul 10-16 (2-11): Xavier remains on the right side of things. RPI is 43, they're likely an 11 seed currently. They've got a valuable win over Cincinnati and some nice wins over bubble squads. A couple boneheaded losses to USC and Seton Hall are what bring them down. They've got a nasty stretch of @ Georgetown, @ St. John's, Creighton and Villanova coming up. They'll need to find a way to win one or two of those to ensure safety. Obviously a home loss to DePaul will single handedly do major damage. Can't happen.
St. Joseph's 17-7 (7-3) @ Rhode Island 11-15 (2-9): St. Joes's has put themselves in good shape with recent wins over UMass and VCU. RPI is 40, currently likely an 11 seed. They've got a very manageable remaining stretch. Unless they pick up a couple bad losses, they should be pretty safe by A10 tournament time.
Marquette 15-10 (7-5) vs #11 Creighton 21-4 (11-2): Marquette is making a last ditch run. RPI is 72 so there's still major work to do. They've beaten teams like Xavier and Georgetown, but lack any "great" wins. Also have 1 bad loss (Butler). Still, Creighton presents a chance for that big win, and Villanova, Georgetown, Providence and St. John's remain. It's a tall order, but if Marquette wins a few of these their resume can become Big Dance caliber in a hurry.
SMU 20-6 (9-4) vs Houston 12-13 (4-8): I put SMU here because they just took a horrendous loss to Temple. They are absolutely still on the right side of things, likely as a 9 or 10 seed. However, their RPI has fallen to 47. If they were to lose to lowly Houston, things would start getting dicey for Larry Brown's squad.
Missouri 18-7 (6-6) vs Vanderbilt 14-10 (6-6): Missouri is coming off a close home win over fellow bubble team Tennessee. They're likely in the field at the moment as an 11 seed. Their RPI is up to 39 and that OOC win over UCLA is looking better and better, and the home loss to Georgia not so awful anymore. The remaining schedule is very favorable, but that means they can't help themselves because there is currently not one opponent in the top 50 (Tennessee is close) and most are well below 100. That means losses can be very damaging. Knowing Missouri, they'll pick up at least one bad loss in this final stretch and have a nervous selection Sunday. An NCAA Tournament team shouldn't be sitting 6-6 in the SEC, but that's how weak the bubble is at the moment.
Oregon 16-8 (4-8) vs Washington 14-12 (6-7): Oregon kept hopes alive with a win over Oregon State. RPI is a surprisingly high 41. Remaining schedule is home heavy and favorable. Ducks still have a shot. Beating Washington at home is certainly a must.
Minnesota 17-9 (6-7) vs Illinois 14-12 (3-10): Gophers are coming off a crucial win at Northwestern. They're currently a 10 or 11. RPI is a solid 34. However, they'd better beat the Illini because they're about to hit a nasty stretch of @ Ohio State, Iowa, @ Michigan. Looks like an 8-10 B1G record is coming for the Gophers, but that will get them in.
Cal 17-8 (8-4) vs #23 UCLA 20-5 (9-3): Cal went up to Washington and Wazzu and took care of business. RPI is 44 and they're a 9 or 10 at the moment. Needless to say, beating UCLA would be a big resume booster. It would be tough to leave Cal out if they win this. However, the flip side is the remaining schedule is challenging with a road trip to Arizona and ASU, along with visits from CU and feisty Utah. Cal could finish the season on a bad note and make things shaky if not careful. When your RPI is 44 you can't rest easy, and this is the 1 team that managed to get outplayed by USC for 40 minutes. Anything is possible with Cal.
Lastly, I've been seeing some increasing inquiry on Utah. Their RPI is 92 and their OOC SOS was 346. They played multiple division II teams. Even if they beat Arizona tomorrow they're not in the picture as far as I'm concerned. They'd need to win like every remaining game and do major damage in the Pac12 tournament to have any shot.
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CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Oregon tops Washington in Eugene by 7. Ducks improve to 17-8 (5-8). Still very much alive.
Minnesota loses at home to Illinois by 13. Gophers fall to 17-10 (6-8) with @ Michigan, Iowa, @ Ohio State their next 3 games. Minnesota is in trouble.
Minnesota loses at home to Illinois by 13. Gophers fall to 17-10 (6-8) with @ Michigan, Iowa, @ Ohio State their next 3 games. Minnesota is in trouble.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Thursday:
Nebraska 14-10 (6-6) vs Penn State 13-13 (4-9): Huskers have won 5/6 including an enormous win at Michigan State to be firmly in the picture. RPI is 52. There's still work to do, they're on the outside for now. 1 bad loss to UAB, but they've got wins over Michigan State and Ohio State. Their remaining 6 games includes all 5 bottom teams in the B1G. If the Huskers take care of business and win 4-5 more, they're in. A team with a winning B1G record would be near impossible to turn away this year.
Georgetown 15-10 (6-7) @ Seton Hall 13-12 (4-8): Hoyas are coming off having their asses kicked at St. John's, which ended a 5 game winning streak. RPI is just 59. They've got work to do. Currently the 2nd team out on Bracket Matrix. They've got nice wins over Michigan State, VCU, Kansas State but bad losses to Northeastern and Seton Hall. This game is a must win for the Hoyas. Schedule gets pretty nasty after this. Another sub 100 loss would likely be a back breaker.
BYU 18-10 (10-5) vs #25 Gonzaga 23-4 (13-1): Here's BYU's big chance. RPI is 41, but they're generally seen as being on the wrong side right now. They've got nice wins over Texas on a neutral court and @ Stanford. They also are coming off a win @ St. Mary's that ended St. Mary's bubble hopes. However, BYU has picked up a few bad losses in conference play. They're in need of one more big win, and Gonzaga is the only opportunity for that to happen. Beat Gonzaga and don't do anything stupid the last two games (and in the WCC Tourney) and BYU has a good shot at getting in. If they lose, it's a long shot and they probably have to prepare to try to get the WCC auto-bid.
Stanford 16-8 (7-5) vs USC 10-15 (1-11): Stanford is on the right side of things for now, likely a 10 seed at the moment. RPI is 47. Win at UConn is nice, and their win at Cal is valuable. They have no sub-100 losses at the moment. Obviously a home loss to USC would be devastating, especially with UCLA, @ ASU, @ Arizona, Colorado their next 4 games. It seems quite likely Stanford is going to be taking a few losses. With that RPI at 47, I'd keep an eye on them. Seems they could easily have fallen to 17-11 (8-8) by the time CU visits Palo Alto. First thing's first, avoid a devastating home loss to USC.
Nebraska 14-10 (6-6) vs Penn State 13-13 (4-9): Huskers have won 5/6 including an enormous win at Michigan State to be firmly in the picture. RPI is 52. There's still work to do, they're on the outside for now. 1 bad loss to UAB, but they've got wins over Michigan State and Ohio State. Their remaining 6 games includes all 5 bottom teams in the B1G. If the Huskers take care of business and win 4-5 more, they're in. A team with a winning B1G record would be near impossible to turn away this year.
Georgetown 15-10 (6-7) @ Seton Hall 13-12 (4-8): Hoyas are coming off having their asses kicked at St. John's, which ended a 5 game winning streak. RPI is just 59. They've got work to do. Currently the 2nd team out on Bracket Matrix. They've got nice wins over Michigan State, VCU, Kansas State but bad losses to Northeastern and Seton Hall. This game is a must win for the Hoyas. Schedule gets pretty nasty after this. Another sub 100 loss would likely be a back breaker.
BYU 18-10 (10-5) vs #25 Gonzaga 23-4 (13-1): Here's BYU's big chance. RPI is 41, but they're generally seen as being on the wrong side right now. They've got nice wins over Texas on a neutral court and @ Stanford. They also are coming off a win @ St. Mary's that ended St. Mary's bubble hopes. However, BYU has picked up a few bad losses in conference play. They're in need of one more big win, and Gonzaga is the only opportunity for that to happen. Beat Gonzaga and don't do anything stupid the last two games (and in the WCC Tourney) and BYU has a good shot at getting in. If they lose, it's a long shot and they probably have to prepare to try to get the WCC auto-bid.
Stanford 16-8 (7-5) vs USC 10-15 (1-11): Stanford is on the right side of things for now, likely a 10 seed at the moment. RPI is 47. Win at UConn is nice, and their win at Cal is valuable. They have no sub-100 losses at the moment. Obviously a home loss to USC would be devastating, especially with UCLA, @ ASU, @ Arizona, Colorado their next 4 games. It seems quite likely Stanford is going to be taking a few losses. With that RPI at 47, I'd keep an eye on them. Seems they could easily have fallen to 17-11 (8-8) by the time CU visits Palo Alto. First thing's first, avoid a devastating home loss to USC.
LA Tech was not included among CVille's Bubble Watch games.
For good reason - their SOS is only #228 and their RPI is at #72. But that didn't stop their 21-5 record from causing some idots to give them a vote in both the AP and Coach's this week.
Proving that sometimes things are right in the world, LA Tech just lost at a horrible East Carolina that was only 2-9 in the awful C-USA.
Hopefully that ends any promotion of LA Tech as a potential tourney at-large team.
For good reason - their SOS is only #228 and their RPI is at #72. But that didn't stop their 21-5 record from causing some idots to give them a vote in both the AP and Coach's this week.
Proving that sometimes things are right in the world, LA Tech just lost at a horrible East Carolina that was only 2-9 in the awful C-USA.
Hopefully that ends any promotion of LA Tech as a potential tourney at-large team.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Yeah I made the decision that they just weren't worthy of being a true bubble team, they had a nice win at Oklahoma but they had already done a few dumb things before tonight and the new CUSA doesn't offer any opportunity for quality wins. Now they've fallen to 88, so that's that.
Nebraska continuing to make their move. About to go final with asskicking of Penn State.
Not so sure I would mind a home and home with cornholers. That is as long as they continue to improve.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Georgetown about to take a bad loss to 139 Seton Hall. This one hurts the Hoyas badly. Fallen to 15-11 (6-8) and RPI will fall well into the 60s (entered at 59). Hoyas just haven't had the consistency this year. They aren't out of it yet, but the remaining 4 games are rough (including both Creighton and Villanova). The worrying thing is they haven't just lost to Seton Hall and St. John's these last 2 games, they haven't even been competitive. Xavier visits GTown next. Absolute must-win.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
BYU's win at St. Mary's recently was the final nail in the coffin there. St. Mary's "big win" is Boise State and they've got losses to Santa Clara, George Mason, San Diego, South Carolina. How anyone could consider them remotely on the bubble is beyond me. And it's not about hating on the little conferences, I'm frankly more supportive of BYU getting in than most. But what about St. Mary's resume could possibly say "Big Dance caliber" to anyone?!?!
cubuffs85
Active Member
What will take for JT3 to get fired, given his last name?
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Are there some off court issues I'm forgetting about? Georgetown will always have a couple bad apples but even if they don't Dance this year, he will have still made 7/10 Dances while HC. I know after the '07 Final Four they haven't been going as deep as they wanted, but he's still been enjoying tremendous regular season success and I would never advocate firing a guy because of a few bad breaks in March. Georgetown needs to realize it isn't the mid 80's anymore, yet they're still a highly respected national name due to their revival under JT3. It could be far, far worse. Remember Craig Esherick?
The big mistake with this year's team was building things around an expectation of Joshua Smith. Should have known better than to count on him to that extent. They've got a sweet 2014 recruiting class coming in next season. JT3 and the Hoyas will be just fine.
cubuffs85
Active Member
No issues to my knowledge. Yep remember Craig Esherick, my dad used to work with his wife. JT3 hasn't been out of the first weekend since 2007, that's more than a few bad breaks IMO -- losing to the likes Ohio, FGCU, VCU (I'll partially give him since they had a good run), and NC State -- that's underachieving. I don't think he'd have a job if it wasn't for his last name, his dad still carries a lot of weight over that program. I do agree with you it could be worse, it could also be better. They should be able to get to the 2nd weekend on a more regular basis IMO.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
BYU deserves to be in if they don't do anything stupid these last 2 regular season games and make the WCC final and lose to Zaga there. Some bad conference losses but they did their part OOC and with the state of the bubble, a last 4 in slot seems justified in my scenario.
Quick refresher:
68 tourney bids
33 go to conference champs
35 at-large bids
How that usually shakes out is that a team is pretty much safe if its RPI is in the Top 40. If you're a Power 5 conference team and in the Top 40, bank it. Lowest RPI teams to ever make the Dance? USC at #67 and Marquette at #64... both in 2011 (I'm still pissed about that snub).
68 tourney bids
33 go to conference champs
35 at-large bids
How that usually shakes out is that a team is pretty much safe if its RPI is in the Top 40. If you're a Power 5 conference team and in the Top 40, bank it. Lowest RPI teams to ever make the Dance? USC at #67 and Marquette at #64... both in 2011 (I'm still pissed about that snub).
This got me wondering what teams with the highest RPI's from a power conference to miss the tourney were. A quick search turned up Texas Tech at #29 in 1997 and Cincinnati at #40 in 2006, but apparently TT had to forfeit some games that year. I'm guess their respective conferences were down in those years too. We don't need to worry about that this year with 6-7 Pac-12 teams in contention for a bid. If it was a year like the Pac had 2 years ago then there might be reason to be a little concerned.
Found a good daily blog on the tourney bubble: http://tourneybubble.com/
The newest post about BYU's resume and one a few down with the bubble position by conference are particularly good.
Unrelated to that blog: I read that while RPI is a great predictor of what teams make the tourney, the AP Top 25 is more accurate in terms of who gets the 1-6 seeds.
The newest post about BYU's resume and one a few down with the bubble position by conference are particularly good.
Unrelated to that blog: I read that while RPI is a great predictor of what teams make the tourney, the AP Top 25 is more accurate in terms of who gets the 1-6 seeds.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Saturday:
Our Buffs 20-7 (9-5) host #4 Arizona 24-2 (11-2): Our win over ASU has put us right on the brink. Given the state of the bubble, we're probably in already (likely a 9 seed at the moment). For example, ESPN's bubble watch has us in the "should be in category" with every other Pac bubble school in "work left to do". Our RPI sits at 24. The quality wins and lack of bad losses are there. One more win seals the deal, especially if it comes against Arizona (2 RPI). Obviously we don't want the team thinking "just 1 more win", but as fans that's the reality of the situation. That said, it's our last home game. We need to take advantage of it before a difficult road swing. Let's get this and start talking about seeding in earnest. Go Buffs
Xavier 18-8 (8-5) @ Georgetown 15-11 (6-8): Xavier sits with an RPI of 42 and is likely a 10 or 11 right now. However the remaining schedule is quite difficult with road games against bubble squads and home games against Nova and Creighton. Georgetown seriously hurt themselves getting killed by St. John's and sub 100 Seton Hall. Hoyas RPI has fallen to 63. Their remaining schedule is also quite difficult (both Nova and Creighton). Georgetown has to win this or their hopes start to fade away. They're on the outside looking in and this a winnable top 50 home game they simply have to win.
Indiana State 21-6 (12-3) @ Missouri State 17-10 (7-8): Sycamores are a major long shot but the RPI is 54 so I'll give them a mention. The bottom line is they have zero remotely good wins, like nothing even remotely close. They blew both chances against Wichita State and they've got a couple bad losses. The MVC is complete garbage outside of Wichita State, so there's nothing Indiana State can do to boost the resume. Not getting in unless the committee decides to go way overly PC with the little guys.
St. John's 18-9 (8-6) @ #9 Villanova 23-3 (11-2): Johnnies have won 9/10 (only loss 7 games ago by 3 at Creighton). They've been picking up nice wins. However a season is a season and their lousy start that includes losses to DePaul and Penn State remains on the resume. They're undoubtedly playing Big Dance worthy basketball, but the RPI is still just 53. They're very close, but they're going to need a few more wins. Winning at Villanova is a tall order, a win would be just what they need. However, in the likely event of a loss, the remaining 3 games are pretty manageable and if they take care of business in those, it should be enough.
Oklahoma State 16-10 (4-9) vs Texas Tech 13-13 (5-8): Bracket Matrix still has OSU in the field, but if the season ended today I find it extremely hard to believe a team with 7 straight losses that's 5 games under .500 in their conference would get in. Smart returns and OSU has to get winning. Texas Tech and TCU are just what the doctor ordered. The Pokes are still showing a ton of fight (no pun intended), losing extremely close games. RPI is still 49. After Texas Tech it's @ TCU, Kansas, KState, @ Iowa State. That's a rough final 3 games, but a big statement win or two is exactly what they need. Don't count them out, they're due for some breaks.
Baylor 17-9 (5-8) @ West Virginia 15-11 (7-6): Huge game. Two desperate bubble squads. Baylor has shown life with 3 straight wins. RPI is up to 47. WVU is coming off a loss at Texas. RPI is only 70, so they've got major work to do. Loser of this one is likely toast. WVU can't afford any home loss with their RPI so low, and Baylor falling to 5-9 and still having to visit Austin and Manhattan, along with hosting Iowa State would likely be doomed as well. For our own resume, Baylor winning and staying top 50 is in our interest.
Dayton 18-8 (6-5) @ Duquesne 11-14 (3-9): Dayton is attempting to come back from the dead. A solid start to the season had them in the top 25 and looking good (wins over Gonzaga and Cal on neutral courts). Then the bottom fell out (a home loss to USC and 4 straight conference losses). Now they've won 5 in a row to make a last ditch push at the Dance. RPI is 59. They've certainly got work to do but if they find a way to win their final 5 (or at least 4) then they've got a legitimate case. Highly unlikely they pull that off though considering Saint Louis, UMass, Saint Joseph's and Richmond remain.
St. Joseph's 18-7 (8-3) vs Fordham 9-15 (2-9): St. Joes is enjoying a nice A10 season. RPI is 40. No good OOC wins and inexcusably lost to Temple, but they've played their way in with a solid A10 campaign (2nd place right now). Remaining schedule is pretty favorable, so as long as they don't do anything absurd (like lose at home to Fordham), they'll be in. Currently likely an 11 seed.
Tennessee 16-10 (7-6) @ Texas A&M 15-11 (6-7): Vols are generally viewed as being just in right now. RPI is 52. They'll be riding their fluke asskicking of Virginia for all it's worth, because they've had a mediocre SEC campaign. Remaining schedule is favorable, but it's road games like this at sub-100 opposition that can destroy Tennessee's hopes. This is a must-win or the Vols will fall back to the other side of the cut line.
Richmond 17-9 (7-4) vs LaSalle 12-13 (4-7): Spiders lost at home to George Washington. That one really hurt. It was the exact type of resume booster they needed to get on the right side of the cut line. RPI is 46 and they're still in the thick of it, but you get the feeling that choke loss to GW might come back to haunt them. The good news is the remaining schedule isn't so bad, and they've got one last shot for a big home win when VCU visits.
Stanford 17-8 (8-5) vs #23 UCLA 21-5 (10-3): Stanford remains on the right side of things, likely a 10 seed. Remarkably for a Dawkins team, they have no bad losses. The OOC win at UConn is nice and they've held their own against Pac bubble squads, winning @ Cal and beating ASU. The bad news is the RPI is still a bit shaky at 48 and it's easy to see how this 4 game stretch of UCLA, @ASU, @Arizona, Colorado could (and probably will) add at least 3 losses to the record. Stanford may be feeling pretty nervous by the time CU visits on March 5.
Minnesota 17-10 (6-8) @ #24 Ohio State 21-6 (8-6): Gophers are in deep ****. RPI is still 45, but they're sitting 6-8 in B1G play and a weak Illinois squad just beat them by 13 in Minneapolis. Now they've got @ OSU, Iowa, @ Michigan before finishing with Penn State. Looks like they'll be entering the B1G Tourney at 18-13 (7-11). They play the OOC schedule game perfectly, but it's going to be a close call if they don't get a surprise big win.
Missouri 19-7 (7-6) @ Alabama 10-16 (4-9): Missouri has reeled off 3 straight home wins over mediocre competition by a combined 9 points. A win is a win and the RPI is up to 37, but Mizzou is frankly a pretty mediocre team that would be badly exposed in any other big 5 conference. Their remaining schedule is favorable, but it's highly possible Mizzou takes a bad road loss or two. They're currently in, likely an 11, but stay tuned. These guys make nearly every game a nail biter.
BYU 19-10 (11-5) vs Portland 15-12 (7-8): BYU is coming off a huge win over Gonzaga. They've played a challenging OOC and beaten Texas and Stanford. They now added a much-needed win over the Zags to the resume. They've had some questionable conference losses, but the RPI is 35 and they deserve to get in if they win these remaining 2 regular season games and lose to Gonzaga in the WCC Tourney. If they pick up another sub 100 loss, all bets are off and they likely don't get in.
Our Buffs 20-7 (9-5) host #4 Arizona 24-2 (11-2): Our win over ASU has put us right on the brink. Given the state of the bubble, we're probably in already (likely a 9 seed at the moment). For example, ESPN's bubble watch has us in the "should be in category" with every other Pac bubble school in "work left to do". Our RPI sits at 24. The quality wins and lack of bad losses are there. One more win seals the deal, especially if it comes against Arizona (2 RPI). Obviously we don't want the team thinking "just 1 more win", but as fans that's the reality of the situation. That said, it's our last home game. We need to take advantage of it before a difficult road swing. Let's get this and start talking about seeding in earnest. Go Buffs
Xavier 18-8 (8-5) @ Georgetown 15-11 (6-8): Xavier sits with an RPI of 42 and is likely a 10 or 11 right now. However the remaining schedule is quite difficult with road games against bubble squads and home games against Nova and Creighton. Georgetown seriously hurt themselves getting killed by St. John's and sub 100 Seton Hall. Hoyas RPI has fallen to 63. Their remaining schedule is also quite difficult (both Nova and Creighton). Georgetown has to win this or their hopes start to fade away. They're on the outside looking in and this a winnable top 50 home game they simply have to win.
Indiana State 21-6 (12-3) @ Missouri State 17-10 (7-8): Sycamores are a major long shot but the RPI is 54 so I'll give them a mention. The bottom line is they have zero remotely good wins, like nothing even remotely close. They blew both chances against Wichita State and they've got a couple bad losses. The MVC is complete garbage outside of Wichita State, so there's nothing Indiana State can do to boost the resume. Not getting in unless the committee decides to go way overly PC with the little guys.
St. John's 18-9 (8-6) @ #9 Villanova 23-3 (11-2): Johnnies have won 9/10 (only loss 7 games ago by 3 at Creighton). They've been picking up nice wins. However a season is a season and their lousy start that includes losses to DePaul and Penn State remains on the resume. They're undoubtedly playing Big Dance worthy basketball, but the RPI is still just 53. They're very close, but they're going to need a few more wins. Winning at Villanova is a tall order, a win would be just what they need. However, in the likely event of a loss, the remaining 3 games are pretty manageable and if they take care of business in those, it should be enough.
Oklahoma State 16-10 (4-9) vs Texas Tech 13-13 (5-8): Bracket Matrix still has OSU in the field, but if the season ended today I find it extremely hard to believe a team with 7 straight losses that's 5 games under .500 in their conference would get in. Smart returns and OSU has to get winning. Texas Tech and TCU are just what the doctor ordered. The Pokes are still showing a ton of fight (no pun intended), losing extremely close games. RPI is still 49. After Texas Tech it's @ TCU, Kansas, KState, @ Iowa State. That's a rough final 3 games, but a big statement win or two is exactly what they need. Don't count them out, they're due for some breaks.
Baylor 17-9 (5-8) @ West Virginia 15-11 (7-6): Huge game. Two desperate bubble squads. Baylor has shown life with 3 straight wins. RPI is up to 47. WVU is coming off a loss at Texas. RPI is only 70, so they've got major work to do. Loser of this one is likely toast. WVU can't afford any home loss with their RPI so low, and Baylor falling to 5-9 and still having to visit Austin and Manhattan, along with hosting Iowa State would likely be doomed as well. For our own resume, Baylor winning and staying top 50 is in our interest.
Dayton 18-8 (6-5) @ Duquesne 11-14 (3-9): Dayton is attempting to come back from the dead. A solid start to the season had them in the top 25 and looking good (wins over Gonzaga and Cal on neutral courts). Then the bottom fell out (a home loss to USC and 4 straight conference losses). Now they've won 5 in a row to make a last ditch push at the Dance. RPI is 59. They've certainly got work to do but if they find a way to win their final 5 (or at least 4) then they've got a legitimate case. Highly unlikely they pull that off though considering Saint Louis, UMass, Saint Joseph's and Richmond remain.
St. Joseph's 18-7 (8-3) vs Fordham 9-15 (2-9): St. Joes is enjoying a nice A10 season. RPI is 40. No good OOC wins and inexcusably lost to Temple, but they've played their way in with a solid A10 campaign (2nd place right now). Remaining schedule is pretty favorable, so as long as they don't do anything absurd (like lose at home to Fordham), they'll be in. Currently likely an 11 seed.
Tennessee 16-10 (7-6) @ Texas A&M 15-11 (6-7): Vols are generally viewed as being just in right now. RPI is 52. They'll be riding their fluke asskicking of Virginia for all it's worth, because they've had a mediocre SEC campaign. Remaining schedule is favorable, but it's road games like this at sub-100 opposition that can destroy Tennessee's hopes. This is a must-win or the Vols will fall back to the other side of the cut line.
Richmond 17-9 (7-4) vs LaSalle 12-13 (4-7): Spiders lost at home to George Washington. That one really hurt. It was the exact type of resume booster they needed to get on the right side of the cut line. RPI is 46 and they're still in the thick of it, but you get the feeling that choke loss to GW might come back to haunt them. The good news is the remaining schedule isn't so bad, and they've got one last shot for a big home win when VCU visits.
Stanford 17-8 (8-5) vs #23 UCLA 21-5 (10-3): Stanford remains on the right side of things, likely a 10 seed. Remarkably for a Dawkins team, they have no bad losses. The OOC win at UConn is nice and they've held their own against Pac bubble squads, winning @ Cal and beating ASU. The bad news is the RPI is still a bit shaky at 48 and it's easy to see how this 4 game stretch of UCLA, @ASU, @Arizona, Colorado could (and probably will) add at least 3 losses to the record. Stanford may be feeling pretty nervous by the time CU visits on March 5.
Minnesota 17-10 (6-8) @ #24 Ohio State 21-6 (8-6): Gophers are in deep ****. RPI is still 45, but they're sitting 6-8 in B1G play and a weak Illinois squad just beat them by 13 in Minneapolis. Now they've got @ OSU, Iowa, @ Michigan before finishing with Penn State. Looks like they'll be entering the B1G Tourney at 18-13 (7-11). They play the OOC schedule game perfectly, but it's going to be a close call if they don't get a surprise big win.
Missouri 19-7 (7-6) @ Alabama 10-16 (4-9): Missouri has reeled off 3 straight home wins over mediocre competition by a combined 9 points. A win is a win and the RPI is up to 37, but Mizzou is frankly a pretty mediocre team that would be badly exposed in any other big 5 conference. Their remaining schedule is favorable, but it's highly possible Mizzou takes a bad road loss or two. They're currently in, likely an 11, but stay tuned. These guys make nearly every game a nail biter.
BYU 19-10 (11-5) vs Portland 15-12 (7-8): BYU is coming off a huge win over Gonzaga. They've played a challenging OOC and beaten Texas and Stanford. They now added a much-needed win over the Zags to the resume. They've had some questionable conference losses, but the RPI is 35 and they deserve to get in if they win these remaining 2 regular season games and lose to Gonzaga in the WCC Tourney. If they pick up another sub 100 loss, all bets are off and they likely don't get in.
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cubuffs85
Active Member
We're a lock according to them. I'm not ready to put us there yet.
It usually means that if the selection was today, the team would be in. Doesn't mean we couldn't play our way out.
cubuffs85
Active Member
I get it, but were not going to be favored the rest of the year. If we go 0-4 which is possible (and possibly a lost in the first round), were not a lock. Just saying I don't think were a lock right now. If it were held today, we'd be in, that I agree with. This is the first place I've seen that has us as a "lock."
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Our RPI is 24. True bubble squads are 45-50. We have no bad losses. We have good wins. Bubble teams lack one of those, or both. It's increasingly hard to see how CU could not be selected.
Theoretically, CU could play its way into trouble. Hard to see the RPI dropping into the 40s unless the unthinkable happened (Pac-12 tourney loss to Wazzu).
The bigger deal is the opportunity to play the way into the Top 25 and grab a 6-seed or 5-seed.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Georgetown kills Xavier at home to keep their hopes alive. Xavier will fall closer to the cut line, but still in for now.