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Official 2021 Football Season Prediction Thread

How many regular season wins will CU have in 2021

  • Total voters
    135
  • Poll closed .
Gary Indiana said:
In some aspects, yes. Our only G5 game last year was against a very good SDSU team on about 5 days notice. This year we get UNC. We also had UCLA, Stanford, AZ, and Utah as our in conference games. AZ was really the only team we were favored against during conference play.

Again, all in all, I'm picking 6-7 wins when factoring in everything that I've mentioned.
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Feasible. I picked 5 wins because...well...Buff history proves it's tough to get past 5 wins. In my view UNC, AZ, and OSU go in the 'W' column. We need to win 2 of the Minn, @UCLA, UW, @Cal matchups. I don't see much hope with USC, @UO, A&M, @ASU, @Utah.
 
married2abuff said:
Feasible. I picked 5 wins because...well...Buff history proves it's tough to get past 5 wins. In my view UNC, AZ, and OSU go in the 'W' column. We need to win 2 of the Minn, @UCLA, UW, @Cal matchups. I don't see much hope with USC, @UO, A&M, @ASU, @Utah.
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What the hell's wrong with you? They NEED to win 3 of the other 9 so they can get to 6 wins
 
I firmly believe that this team is going to surprise and look improved over last year by a good margin. But given our schedule, I think we only get to 6 wins if we remain mostly healthy. The aTm game will be really interesting to see if we can even keep their margin of victory within 21
 
This was a 5-7 team last year and this is a 5-7 team this year. This will probably be a 5-7 team next year given the level of recruiting.
 
I picked less than 3, but I could see us winning 3. No option for that on the flawed poll.
 
Can’t bring myself to predict anything less than 6 wins, but I honestly don’t know where those wins will come from.
 
I can see 6 wins if I squint.

Wins would be UNC, Minn, UA, Cal, OSU, UW. Excepting UO, most are predicting a down year for PAC12 North so banking on that. All but Cal at home but Cal will be coming off a beat down by UO the week before. Fillip has to be in the lineup by the Minn game.

The devil’s advocate would suggest that beating UW, late in the season, with Chiaverini’s offense being fully predictable by then, will be the tallest task of all.
 
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All of the talk about difficulty of schedule and rankings at this point is a little bit of science and a whole lot of BS. On average about 40% of the preseason top 25 finish the season unranked, which to me isn't really a very good track record of predicting what a team will do before you have the opportunity to see them play.. That's one reason why I like college football. From what I recall, the experts have been particularly bad at predicting what CU is going to do for the last 5 years or so as well You guys can have all your metrics and I will take the Buffs for 8 wins until it becomes obvious that isn't going to happen once we get into the season.
 
steph said:
All of the talk about difficulty of schedule and rankings at this point is a little bit of science and a whole lot of BS. On average about 40% of the preseason top 25 finish the season unranked, which to me isn't really a very good track record of predicting what a team will do before you have the opportunity to see them play.. That's one reason why I like college football. From what I recall, the experts have been particularly bad at predicting what CU is going to do for the last 5 years or so as well You guys can have all your metrics and I will take the Buffs for 8 wins until it becomes obvious that isn't going to happen once we get into the season.
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The SoS predictions do not use the pre-season ratings from coaches or a poll. They are based upon the actual power ratings of teams from analytical sources that rate teams and their depth charts.
 
manhattanbuff said:
The SoS predictions do not use the pre-season ratings from coaches or a poll. They are based upon the actual power ratings of teams from analytical sources that rate teams and their depth charts.
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I am sure they do, I don’t gamble and don’t dive that deeply into all the analytics (not at all actually). Maybe I am wrong but my impression is that the preseason sos doesn’t match up all that well with the sos evaluated the last week of the season. It’s relatively easy to predict which 10 or 15 programs are are going to end up near the top. After that there are so many variables I don’t think at this point you can accurately predict whether UCLA, cal, osu, minn, Washington, or even Usc is going to be a better team than cu on the day they play. At least I like to believe that because sometimes ignorance is bliss.
 
steph said:
I am sure they do, I don’t gamble and don’t dive that deeply into all the analytics (not at all actually). Maybe I am wrong but my impression is that the preseason sos doesn’t match up all that well with the sos evaluated the last week of the season. It’s relatively easy to predict which 10 or 15 programs are are going to end up near the top. After that there are so many variables I don’t think at this point you can accurately predict whether UCLA, cal, osu, minn, Washington, or even Usc is going to be a better team than cu on the day they play. At least I like to believe that because sometimes ignorance is bliss.
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Your impression is based upon journalist and coach ratings of teams from polling. The information I presented is not based in polling. Advanced analytics rate players pretty well these days because you can compare recruiting class and depth quality with a high level of objectivity. It is not perfect in college footballl where there’s annual attrition. However, that’s factored into account. These advanced analytics systems are better more frequently than they are not.

I will reiterate the issue with forfeits. Most bets I’ve made exclude forfeits on purpose because we’re in pre-season and can’t predict how well teams will address COVID. We only have last year. Colorado did well managing COVID. Others did not. On the field, CU’s talent level is not as good as our opponents. The team playing in a continuing global pandemic with strict forfeit rules mitigates some of those built in advantages that other programs have.
 
I'm thinking 4 wins. I see a lot of folks picking a win over Minnesota, and I just don't see that happening. But if CU somehow beats Minny after coming off the A&M game, then this team is much better than I currently give them credit for.
 
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manhattanbuff said:
Your impression is based upon journalist and coach ratings of teams from polling. The information I presented is not based in polling. Advanced analytics rate players pretty well these days because you can compare recruiting class and depth quality with a high level of objectivity. It is not perfect in college footballl where there’s annual attrition. However, that’s factored into account. These advanced analytics systems are better more frequently than they are not.

I will reiterate the issue with forfeits. Most bets I’ve made exclude forfeits on purpose because we’re in pre-season and can’t predict how well teams will address COVID. We only have last year. Colorado did well managing COVID. Others did not. On the field, CU’s talent level is not as good as our opponents. The team playing in a continuing global pandemic with strict forfeit rules mitigates some of those built in advantages that other programs have.
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I would argue that the methodology you are using has some limits related to 18-22 growth spurts and advancements on the field.

However, I don't disagree with your overall assessment.
 
I'm not drinking the Kool-aid this year, but still: I hope we go to a bowl game and win it.

Because the way recruiting is going, this year will be our last even sort of reasonable chance for a while.
 
married2abuff said:
Feasible. I picked 5 wins because...well...Buff history proves it's tough to get past 5 wins. In my view UNC, AZ, and OSU go in the 'W' column. We need to win 2 of the Minn, @UCLA, UW, @Cal matchups. I don't see much hope with USC, @UO, A&M, @ASU, @Utah.
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Whats with the notion here that Arizona State is some sort of world beater? They're not. We beat them in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Two of those games were played in Tempe. That game is at a minimum a tossup. I'd also put USC in the tossup category because I think our game with them sets up as a classic trap game-their next two games after us are Utah at home (which could decide the South) and at Notre Dame (big time statement game). USC under Helton also tends to blow games they shouldn't (see the Pac 12 CG last year, @BYU in 2019, and @Wazzu in 2018).
 
I do like this team and do think Dorrell is a good coach that seems to have his teams ready for games.

The schedule last year set up about as good as we could have hoped for in a weird season, but ultimately we can only go off of what we saw. We won a lot of close games against similar teams last year.

This team still lacks depth in areas that can really derail the entire season if it goes wrong. There seems to be some good leadership that can move the needle in close games. I want to predict more than 6 wins but I have a hard time seeing anything better at this point.
 
ahoelsken said:
Whats with the notion here that Arizona State is some sort of world beater? They're not. We beat them in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Two of those games were played in Tempe. That game is at a minimum a tossup. I'd also put USC in the tossup category because I think our game with them sets up as a classic trap game-their next two games after us are Utah at home (which could decide the South) and at Notre Dame (big time statement game). USC under Helton also tends to blow games they shouldn't (see the Pac 12 CG last year, @BYU in 2019, and @Wazzu in 2018).
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🤣 It's weird to be optimistic about beating a team we've never won against.
 
I sure hope that they somehow get to 7 or more wins. It will give them something to build on because right now, they have no momentum on the recruiting side and could use a season of over performing vs expectations.
 
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