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Official Allbuffs CFB gambling thread

Millions of Barstool lemmings listen to all the betting picks of the Barstool personalities, which is nothing more than listening to a random person the street, and Barstool’s Sportsbook generates more money per bettor than any Sportsbook in history. It’s absolutely brilliant, tbh.
 
I got the Chiefs at -1 Sunday night, convinced that Mahomes was going to play this week, and with the line settling at 3 I feel good about getting that number. My dream scenario right now though is the Chiefs get off to a fast start, and then I can come back on a bigger +7 or something live line on Buffalo and have a massive middle opportunity.
 
torerobuff said:
I got the Chiefs at -1 Sunday night, convinced that Mahomes was going to play this week, and with the line settling at 3 I feel good about getting that number. My dream scenario right now though is the Chiefs get off to a fast start, and then I can come back on a bigger +7 or something live line on Buffalo and have a massive middle opportunity.
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Nice, I took a futures bet on the bills to win the super bowl so hopefully they can pull it out so I can hedge
 
torerobuff said:
I got the Chiefs at -1 Sunday night, convinced that Mahomes was going to play this week, and with the line settling at 3 I feel good about getting that number. My dream scenario right now though is the Chiefs get off to a fast start, and then I can come back on a bigger +7 or something live line on Buffalo and have a massive middle opportunity.
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You buy points?
 
TSchekler said:
Millions of Barstool lemmings listen to all the betting picks of the Barstool personalities, which is nothing more than listening to a random person the street, and Barstool’s Sportsbook generates more money per bettor than any Sportsbook in history. It’s absolutely brilliant, tbh.
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It’s not about the money we all lost but the fun times along the way lol
 
onealcd said:
It’s not about the money we all lost but the fun times along the way lol
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I just started listening to some of the barstool content and it is entertaining, but if you actually use their betting advice, you might as well just give up now.

Portnoy is building an empire
 
patebuff said:
I just started listening to some of the barstool content and it is entertaining, but if you actually use their betting advice, you might as well just give up now.

Portnoy is building an empire
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Barstool and the ringer put out a ton of great content. But yes betting is hard
 
I had $5 on TB straight up, so glad. Have a parlay with Bills too.
Was the 4th down GB call the worst championship call in a few years?

Placed - Single To Win $ 7.50
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+150)(311) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ (312) Green Bay Packers
 
cu2x said:
I had $5 on TB straight up, so glad. Have a parlay with Bills too.
Was the 4th down GB call the worst championship call in a few years?

Placed - Single To Win $ 7.50
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+150)(311) Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ (312) Green Bay Packers
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Analytics say it was the right call to try to win the game. 27.5 percent to 25 percent.

the goal is to win the game, not tie it.

HC is getting crushed, but it was the right decision mathematically.
 
hawg1 said:
Analytics say it was the right call to try to win the game. 27.5 percent to 25 percent.

the goal is to win the game, not tie it.

HC is getting crushed, but it was the right decision mathematically.
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But mathematics are only part of the picture. Momentum and Rogers were big factors too. I'd guess most GB players felt they'd lost when they went for the FG. I don't disagree with your statement, but does the coach have a chart, where he can look up, "2 mins left, 8 yard line, etc"? - like with, when he should go for 2 after a TD?
 
cu2x said:
But mathematics are only part of the picture. Momentum and Rogers were big factors too. I'd guess most GB players felt they'd lost when they went for the FG. I don't disagree with your statement, but does the coach have a chart, where he can look up, "2 mins left, 8 yard line, etc"? - like with, when he should go for 2 after a TD?
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Yes. They have analytics support in the booth as I understand it.
 
FM-Buff said:
No it wasn’t.
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Do you have analytics to say it was the wrong decision mathematically? If so please post them.

He played to win the game, not tie it.

You either believe in analytics or you don’t. He will win more than lose over the long-term using analytics. That’s why the vast majority of teams now use them.

it did not work out today. But his decision is certainly defensible.
 
hawg1 said:
Do you have analytics to say it was the wrong decision mathematically? If so please post them.

He played to win the game, not tie it.

You either believe in analytics or you don’t. He will win more than lose over the long-term using analytics. That’s why the vast majority of teams now use them.

it did not work out today. But his decision is certainly defensible.
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You have a 0% chance to win if you don’t get the ball back. It was obvious they weren’t getting the ball back.
 
hawg1 said:
Do you have analytics to say it was the wrong decision mathematically? If so please post them.

He played to win the game, not tie it.

You either believe in analytics or you don’t. He will win more than lose over the long-term using analytics. That’s why the vast majority of teams now use them.

it did not work out today. But his decision is certainly defensible.
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I believe in analytics. I can also say that I have Aaron ****ing Rodgers as my QB and go score a ****ing touchdown.
And I’m not going to “post my math” because I certainly didn’t see you do that.
 
hawg1 said:
That was obvious? The data don’t say that, but OK.
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Come on man. Were you really watching that game and thinking, “Green Bay is getting the ball back here, and then is going to go down the field and score a touchdown.” The Bucs were 9-14 on 3rd down, Green Bay struggled to get off the field on 3rd down the entire game. That FG was a complete surrender. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
 
torerobuff said:
Come on man. Were you really watching that game and thinking, “Green Bay is getting the ball back here, and then is going to go down the field and score a touchdown.” The Bucs were 9-14 on 3rd down, Green Bay struggled to get off the field on 3rd down the entire game. That FG was a complete surrender. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
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That’s a clever statement. I’ve never heard it.

You either believe analytics and use them. Or you don’t.

Kinda like hitting on 16 against a face card.
 
hawg1 said:
That’s a clever statement. I’ve never heard it.

You either believe analytics and use them. Or you don’t.

Kinda like hitting on 16 against a face card.
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Analytics does a terrible job of taking game flow into account. There is no accounting for momentum in analytics either. I don’t know how you could calculate momentum, real deep analytics nerds say momentum doesn’t exist. Anyone who has ever played a sport ever in there life know that’s a load of bull****. You go ahead and be a slave to math that can’t account for everything, and keep kicking chicken **** field goals.
 
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