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Official CU Resume & Bubble Watch 2021-22
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
Formerly_Medford
Well-Known Member
We have to get to the mid 60's at worst to think we might get in. CU isn't a name school that the committee is going to give a pass, despite a beatdown of UA, and being pretty hot to end the year.
Stilll 75 through games played on Saturday.
We moved from 76 to 75.
Here's what I don't get:
CU was at 76 and won by double digits on the road vs #123 Utah. We move up 1 spot to #75.
Santa Clara was at 74 and won by double digits in a neutral game vs #168 Portland. They move up 8 spots to #66.
That's depressing.
The metrics on us and our non-conference SOS are so bad that we either win the Pac-12 tournament or we're hoping for the NIT.
FWIW, almost onto the bubble at DRatings, 10th highest ranking for their NIT list.
www.dratings.com
Bracketology 2024 - NCAA Tournament / NIT Projections
Our Bracketology for 2024! We list projections for all of NCAA Basketball tournament seeds as well as the NIT tournament in March.
www.dratings.com
It's so hard to know without the raw score, for all we know there could have been a relatively large gap between 76- 75, and 75-60 could be clustered together by the same gap.
Which, I guess, would be where the tournament comes into play. At the least, you'd have to think that CU is closing in and a neutral win over Oregon (now #74 and will be at a similar number with a win over OSU) would vault us. Then a neutral over Arizona would really improve our number. And then if it was a loss to UCLA or USC, it shouldn't really hurt us.
But I don't trust it now.
We've got to win the whole damn thing.
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I think that winning the auto bid was nearly set in stone after the ASU game.
The only hope I have is that after last year's tourney the committee has some non-analytic types who think the league absolutely deserves an extra bid and that a close Buffs loss in the final after solid wins in the quarters and semis is enough to snag one of the last four seeds.
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Per Wilner St. John's was the lowest NET to get an at-large bid at 73 in 2019
I've determined the metrics are bullsh!t. They just are. On a neutral court we beat Santa Clara by 20.
Buffsbball
Well-Known Member
Or the team with a losing record ahead of us (Kansas State)
Bubblebuff
Bubble buff
It has to come down to non-con sos. Wsu lost to boise state, south dakota st, and new mexico state, all terrible losses (minus boise maybe) but all those teams are top 90 in NET, so they are boosting WSU, and in turn, WSU is boosting them as a top tier win as well. Seems a bit circular for sure.
Our non con opponents are so much worse in Net, so as we all know, not playing kansas definitely was a huge blow.
Net also ranks efficiency and scoring margins, and we had a lot of close wins early on against those crappy non conference teams, so while we were getting Ws, I think it looks pretty paltry in the NET formula.
I'd forgotten about that last part. NET factors in margin of victory.
I don't think that's it, though. Our margin is probably helping us. It has to be the schedule. RPI, which doesn't factor in margin of victory/loss, has us at #102. http://realtimerpi.com/college_Men_basketball_rpi3.html
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
That one makes sense to at least me-the Big 12 is a much better basketball conference. Four of their teams (Kansas, Baylor, Texas, and Texas Tech) are ranked right now and will likely be top 5 seeds in the NCAA tournament. They've played them all twice-and they beat Texas in Austin and Texas Tech in Manhattan. That's on top of playing Arkansas and Illinois OOC.
This conference isn't that good-Palm has 2 Pac teams getting top 4 seeds right now....and the bottom of this league (Hi, Oregon State) is sooo bad.
Two random notes-team I'm rooting against this coming week is Rutgers. Similar to us in NET. They're in, we're not. A few more good wins, but they've got some bad losses (Lafayette, UMass, Penn State, Minnesota, Northwestern). A team like that losing a bad game today to Penn State or exiting the Big 10 tourney early can only help our chances.
Are CSU and Wyoming really that safe?
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I don't understand this metric bull**** or whatever it is they use. Mainly because I pay attention to absolutely none of it. SOS, got me on that one, it sucked. All I'm really saying is the eyeball test is more important than anything imho. Problem with that is, I've seen some teams way more than others. I know damn well there aren't 68 better teams, or whatever the # is now, than CU in the country. **** it, just win the Pac12 tourney and get it over with.
I think this is it. Oregon State is a ****in anchor dragging the whole conference down with a 253 net, and most of the conference had to play them twice.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Another opponent who probably would have helped to play was CSU. I know the conference has a rule that says its teams can't play road games at schools with sub 175 NET (5 year rolling average). Is that, coupled with their dumb insistence on home and homes, the reason we couldn't play them? I think the answer to that is yes-but i want to make sure.
Also wouldn't mind playing Wyoming-Jeff Linder's style of basketball is a lot different than Shyatt or Edwards' were.
I think it was because of the likelihood of playing in Paradise Jam. But we had that bad loss.
The thing is, I think they're doubling down on a consideration that's already baked into NET. Rutgers, for example, gets a ton of love. They've got a rating right around CU's, so I get where the committee would choose them over the Buffs on the basis of them having those Q1 road wins on their resume. But I see bracketologists liking Rutgers over teams that are 30+ spots above them on NET (VA Tech, for example). In my opinion, that ain't right.
I don’t think anybody is claiming otherwise. But in the hypothetical scenario where we make the finals and lose, we would have two wins over UA, one on a neutral court. I think a very strong argument could be made that the #4 seed in a major conference that lost in the finals of their conference tournament should receive an at large bid. The fact that it’s a seemingly foregone conclusion that we wouldn’t is perplexing.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
That's the only scenario that involves us getting in through an at-large bid.
Not to be a doomsdayer, but if you look at what Arizona has done since we beat them, I'm worried about that game should we get that far. We appear to have woken them up.
losses on neutral courts to good teams are good for you
'99
Well-Known Member
That's basically been Arizona almost all season. They have destroyed most teams they've played. They actually struggled quite a bit with Stanford last week, though.
ahoelsken
Well-Known Member
Conference tournaments are weird. 2018-19 Gonzaga was 33-2 going into the WCC title game against St. Marys, and they laid an egg. Still got a #1 in the NCAA tournament and got to play in the closest subregional to their campus (SLC I think that year). Arizona's going to be a #1, and they're going to be in San Diego for the first week of the NCAA tournament. If Gonzaga loses tonight or tomorrow, they might get the #1 in the West before they play a game in Vegas. They're the favorite, and they are playing better-but that game isn't the sure L you think it is.
We should be rooting for Oregon to get past Oregon State on Wednesday just for the bigger NET bounce a win over them would get us and then worry about them. They beat us at home when they came here for the first time in Altman's tenure.
'99
Well-Known Member
Exactly. Anything can happen in the conference tournament. Just think of Georgetown and Oregon St last season.