Depends on how much gravitas the Pac has.
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Official CU Resume & Bubble Watch 2021-22
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
Everyone who won besides us and TCU was a lock.
For CU right now, the bigger ones are games like UVA losing at home to FSU on a miracle 3 & Wichita State getting run out of the building right now vs Memphis. Or KSU & Dayton losing. We've got to claw through the muck to have a good enough number to make our case. I think it's gonna be hard to say the P12 is only a 3-bid league.
"claw through the muck" is an apt description of our path, continuing with mucky Utah on the road
AEROBUFF
Well-Known Member
Based on the weekend results, I believe the Buffs can only finish 4, 5, or 6 in the Pac12. Beating UA was huge for tie breakers. The Buffs get the tie breaker over Ore, WA, and WSU with the win over UA
To finish 4th, Buffs must win at Utah if Oregon finishes 1-1 this week or lose at Utah and Oregon goes 0-2 and WA loses at least one.
Buffs can finish 6th if they lose at Utah and WA wins all three of their games and Oregon beats WSU.
To finish 4th, Buffs must win at Utah if Oregon finishes 1-1 this week or lose at Utah and Oregon goes 0-2 and WA loses at least one.
Buffs can finish 6th if they lose at Utah and WA wins all three of their games and Oregon beats WSU.
Just keep winning, about all they can do.
There are some things that should happen today and tomorrow that should position our Buffs to move into NET 60s with a win at Utah tomorrow.
I hope so. That ****ing ASU game, damn man, that one hurt. Take care of business against Utah, have a good Pac12 tourney or win it. We don't, some help would be appreciated.
Tomorrow?
It was brought up in another thread, but I have to think that if we beat ASU the chances we beat UofA are much lower. What continues to cause me anguish are the home losses to Oregon and USC. Both games we had no business losing and would've given us significant NET boosts.
Friday, after tomorrow's results are in. Possibility of some craziness today which would move us up a half dozen spots, but that's highly unlikely.
Edit: I was thinking the CU game was Thursday instead of Saturday. Slimmer chance we're in the 60s heading into that game, but still possible without relying on absolute chaos to get there.
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IIRC we lost Eli right before the USC and UCLA home games. I think he would have made the difference against either, maybe both. Clifford needed a little time with his expanded role before he elevated his game.
Also, losing Lovering and da Silva right before the Washington road game was pretty unfortunate and turned a likely win into a loss.
Maybe I'll compile my notes of unfortunate events and send them to the selection committee.
This is what bugs me. For (ahem) gambling reasons, I've had the misfortune of watching Toledo play twice in the last month and a half. We would beat them by double digits. Plus, their schedule was/is worse than ours.
Buffsbball
Well-Known Member
Other crazy thing, Oregon was on the bubble and being viably considered as the only 4th pac 12 team with a chance for the tourney. Was just taken off the bubble watch by the Athletic after the Washington loss. However before the loss, they were 18-12 with losses to ASU, and 30 point plus losses to BYU and Houston. It seemed like if they got the 4 seed in pac 12 tourney they would have been in. However, at 19-10 we aren't even being considered as a bubble team. Even with a realistic shot of the 4 seed in the pac-12.
Buffsbball
Well-Known Member
We are the lowest power conference team with 19 wins in NET at 76. Closest ahead of us with 19 plus wins is Creighton at 60. Truly frustrating this will probably be the difference in us being in the tourney. If we had the same record in the Mountain West Conference this year we'd be in. Wyoming who is 4th in the MWC is considered in the tourney by most projections and has a 47 NET.
'99
Well-Known Member
This is what happens when you play this type of OOC schedule (NET ratings).
Home
129 Montana St
165 New Mexico
353 Maine
8 Tennessee
223 E Washington
333 Milwaukee
287 CSU Bakersfield
Neutral
130 S Illinois
277 Duquesne
215 Brown
Road: None
Buffsbball
Well-Known Member
Kansas cancellation looms large. And if we beat S Illinois we'd play CSU which would help. Colorado's home wins are all downgraded because of altitude and home court advantage which sucks. Wyo is at a higher altitude and has a good fanbase too. You'd think this would also hurt any Duke or Kansas home game even more.
However, if you look at Wyomings they lose to 2/3 Pac teams they play, they do have more games in the 100's in non-conference.
Detroit Mercy (231) W
Arkansas Pine Bluff (352) W
Washington (120) W
Grand Canyon (91) W
Hastings NAIA school not on NET W
Cal State Fullerton (168) W
Denver (291) W
Mcneese State (312) W
Arizona (2) L by 30
Utah Valley (113) W
Stanford (111) L
Northern Iowa (98) W
South Florida (239) W
However, basically they are getting the huge boost in conference games. The MWC conference has 7/11 teams in the top 90 of NET. PAC has 6/12.
MWC: Pac-12:
San Diego State: 20-7 (27 NET) Arizona 27-3 (2 NET)
CSU 22-4 (28 NET) UCLA 22-6 (12 NET)
Boise State 23-6 (30 NET) USC 25-5 (30 NET)
Wyoming 22-7 (47 NET) Wazzu 17-13 (61 NET)
Fresno State 17-11 (67 NET) Oregon 17-12 (66 NET)
Utah State 15-14 (70 NET) Colorado 19-10 (77 NET)
UNLV 17-12 (89 NET) ASU 13-16 (101 NET)
Nevada 11-16 (128 NET) Stanford 15-14 (111 NET)
New Mexico 10-18 (165 NET) Washington 15-14 (120 NET)
Air Force 11-17 (251 NET) Utah 11-18 (123 NET)
San Jose State 7-21 (290 NET) Cal 12-18 (139 NET)
OSU 3-26 (247 NET)
Wyoming is rewarded for beating CSU and Boise state once a piece at home, Utah State twice, and at fresno state once.
Colorado isn't getting credit for beating WSU and Arizona at home, and at Oregon.
MWC is not a better conference than the PAC. Yet all the metrics are holding up those teams.
Fresno State, Utah State, and UNLV who are in the TOP 90 of NET wouldn't finish 5-8 in the PAC like they did in MWC.
'99
Well-Known Member
The NET doesn't include any penalty for playing at altitude. That's another rating.
Buffsbball
Well-Known Member
'99
Well-Known Member
Maybe it's because the MWC is close to or slightly better than the Pac-12 this season. I seriously doubt Wyoming would lose 2/3 of it's games playing a Pac-12 schedule this season. Wyoming has earned their NET rating. Their OOC is significantly better than CU's. They won 3 road games OOC and their neutral site win against Northern Iowa is better than any CU OOC win.
MWC vs Pac-12 this season:
Boise St won at WSU
Wyoming won at Washington, lost neutral site to Stanford, lost at Arizona
New Mexico lost at CU
UNLV won home against Cal, lost home against UCLA
SDSU won neutral against ASU, lost neutral against USC
Fresno St lost at Cal, lost at Utah
Nevada won neutral against Washington
San Jose St lost at Stanford
Utah St and Air Force didn't play a Pac-12 school
So, Pac-12 went 8-5 against MWC, but 7 of the games were Pac-12 home, 4 neutral and 2 at MWC. I'd say that's a draw in head-to-head competition.
The conference is getting punished for some a LOT of horrid HOME losses to bad teams.
Washington St - Lost at home to Eastern Washington (NET 223!)
Washington - Lost at home to N. Illinois (293!), Winthrop (145) and Utah Valley (113)
Arizona St - Lost at home to UC Riverside (153)
Cal - Lost at home to UC San Diego (267!)
Oregon St - Lost at home to UC Davis (217) and Princeton (108)
I don't fully understand the NET, but it seems to hate it when you play a triple digit NET team, and doubly so if you lose to them at home.
241Volcanos
Well-Known Member
Beat Utah and make semis and there’s at least an argument.
We'd beat Wyoming by 12. Guaranteed.
'99
Well-Known Member
Depends where the game is played. Laramie has always been a nightmare for CU.
