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Official realignment thread - SEC formally invites OU and Texas to join the conference in 2025

skibum said:
True



FIFY - but it's still dumb.

Here is the list of assumptions that must *all* be true:
1. ISU will not revert to their mean of a substandard program once they lose their once-in-a-lifetime coach.
2. TCU will not revert to their mean of an average to slightly below program once they lose their once-in-a-lifetime coach.
3. USC will not revert to their mean of a true blue-blood program
4. Oregon will forget how to spend uncle phil's money to buy a good program*
5. UW will likewise continue their current malaise forever and always, amen.
6. Every single team that is added to the B12 will continue their current level of success, despite playing against better teams in every single game of their seasons.

But sure, if all those assumptions are true, then you're 100% right!

Meanwhile, in the real world, some of them will be true, but most of them won't.

*I do understand that "revert to historic mean" is a possibility for UO, but they have managed their current level of success across how many head coaches now? They've certainly managed to break past the "once-in-a-lifetime great coach" barrier that so many programs fail to cross. But, just because a rule has an exception or two doesn't invalidate the rule.
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I appreciate your argument and I certainly understand all of your points.

A couple of thoughts.

1. I believe that the NIL is going to change all of the trends in CFB. So much so that the "revert to the mean" theory comes off of the rails. I can easily envision a situation that Great Plain teams like Nebraska, NDSU, ISU, SDSU, TT, BU, KSU and even Wyoming dramatically outperform their historical records because they integrate the right "sponsors" into their programs. Those sponsors can elevate the talent very quickly.

The effect of NIL on Cincy is going to be negligible, but UCF, and Houston stand to benefit quite a bit from NIL. If the BIG 12 decides to add BYU than all bets are off because I believe that BYU will see enormous benefits from NIL. So much so that they stand to be a perianal top 25 team as they were in the Level Edwards era.

Of the Pac-12 teams I really only think that UO, USC, Utah and maybe UW will benefit greatly from NIL.

2. A Big 12 that includes UCF, Cincy, Houston, and BYU would have an enormous footprint that includes the South, Florida, Texas, Rust Belt, and the Far West. It would be a national brand with a reach that no other P5 conference has. (BYU is actually an international brand)

I will say it again, that the Pac 12 is 5-13 versus the remaining Big 12 members in bowl games over the last 10 years. Hopefully George Kliavkoff and the powers that be can reverse this trend but the NIL is uncharted territory.
 
SBP said:
I appreciate your argument and I certainly understand all of your points.

A couple of thoughts.

1. I believe that the NIL is going to change all of the trends in CFB. So much so that the "revert to the mean" theory comes off of the rails. I can easily envision a situation that Great Plain teams like ****braska, NDSU, ISU, SDSU, TT, BU, KSU and even Wyoming dramatically outperform their historical records because they integrate the right "sponsors" into their programs. Those sponsors can elevate the talent very quickly.

The effect of NIL on Cincy is going to be negligible, but UCF, and Houston stand to benefit quite a bit from NIL. If the BIG 12 decides to add BYU than all bets are off because I believe that BYU will see enormous benefits from NIL. So much so that they stand to be a perianal top 25 team as they were in the Level Edwards era.

Of the Pac-12 teams I really only think that UO, USC, Utah and maybe UW will benefit greatly from NIL.

2. A Big 12 that includes UCF, Cincy, Houston, and BYU would have an enormous footprint that includes the South, Florida, Texas, Rust Belt, and the Far West. It would be a national brand with a reach that no other P5 conference has. (BYU is actually an international brand)

I will say it again, that the Pac 12 is 5-13 versus the remaining Big 12 members in bowl games over the last 10 years. Hopefully George Kliavkoff and the powers that be can reverse this trend but the NIL is uncharted territory.
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NIL isn’t really going to do much for BYU, they have a restricted recruiting base and that won’t change with more money available to their players.

why would NIL benefit houston and UCF but not teams like colorado, asu, arizona, ucla and Stanford?

bowl game records are pretty pointless outside of the playoff and some of the bigger ones.

also what does a national reach as a conference really mean other than higher expenses for your athletic department? They have more time slots but would always be second in line to the power 4.
 
SBP said:
That barely recognizable P5 conference is 13-5 in bowl games vs the Pac-12 and NONE of those games included Oklahoma or Texas
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Just under two bowl games a year does not necessarily tell the whole story like you think it does. Either way, I think it is pretty clear you are VERY bullish on the Big 12 for some reason.
 
Creebuzz said:
If someone thinks the Big 12, minus Oklahoma and Texas, is better than the PAC 12 today, then they must also think it was an absolutely massive mistake to leave the Big 12 a decade ago when it included Oklahoma and Texas.

Personally I don’t see it. You can debate the current W-L records all day long with teams like Cincinnati and Iowa State. Both have good head coaches and are enjoying present success. The PAC 12 has made some bad hires (Helton), had some retirements (Petersen), and had some coaches poached (Tucker), but I don’t see how the underlying fundamentals change much over a longer sampling size. I’d much rather be tied into a group of places like L.A., San Francisco, Portland, Seattle, Phoenix, Salt Lake, and Denver than a bunch of rust belt cities and Midwest dust bowl towns.
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The BigXII sits on better recruiting territory and has more teams located directly in that territory than the Pac12 does. I guess the question is what will the impact of OU, and UT joining A&M have on recruits in Texas? Will those 3 now target Florida more leaving more recruits in Texas available for other non SEC schools?
 
MiamiBuffs said:
The BigXII sits on better recruiting territory and has more teams located in that territory than the Pac12 does. That might help explain why they have a better bowl record v the Pac12.
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??? The big 12 has Texas, that’s it. The pac 12 exclusively has california, arizona, Utah, Washington and Hawaii.
 
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onealcd said:
??? The big 12 has Texas, that’s it. The pac 12 exclusively has california, arizona, Utah, Washington and Hawaii.
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Texas produces the most athletes per cycle. Using all the states in the Pac12 footprint plus Hawaii and Nevada and Idaho and were still behind Texas alone.

2019 FBS Signees by State - Southern Pigskin

Back To Recruiting By Barry EverySouthernPigskin.com Follow us at Twitter.com/SouthernPigskin. Become a fan at the SouthernPigskin.com Facebook Page Georgia finished in the third-spot with 210 signees surpassing California for the second time in three years. Though Texas produced a 12-year low...
www.southernpigskin.com www.southernpigskin.com

 
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MiamiBuffs said:
Texas produces the most athletes per cycle. California is slowly producing less.

2019 FBS Signees by State - Southern Pigskin

Back To Recruiting By Barry EverySouthernPigskin.com Follow us at Twitter.com/SouthernPigskin. Become a fan at the SouthernPigskin.com Facebook Page Georgia finished in the third-spot with 210 signees surpassing California for the second time in three years. Though Texas produced a 12-year low...
www.southernpigskin.com www.southernpigskin.com

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Cool, the big 12 isn’t the only conference in that state.
 
hawg1 said:
Campbell is good. You hit on the key point. Is the success he has built sustainable, especially post his departure? I suspect they would get a decent coach.
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onealcd said:
We talk about not wanting to follow saban at Alabama but who in their right mind would want to follow Campbell at Iowa state? That seems like an awful opportunity.
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Yeah, following up a great coach that over achieved with mediocre talent at a school/area that is tough to recruit to with bad history isn't it. You want to follow a guy who underachieved with good talent, at a school with good history, in a recruiting hotbed. Kind of like Dorrell did at UCLA. Then you are almost guaranteed a decent record while leaving the cupboards bare after getting fired and then get overpaid by someone else a decade and a half later without really doing anything of note for that decade and a half.
 
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Jens1893 said:
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old-school-will-ferrell.gif
 
CUAviator said:
Ok. Now do the Pac-12
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The Pac 12 hasn’t had an elite team in recent years, but there have been 3-4 very good teams just about every year that have beaten up on each other, which has caused the conference to not have a CFP team.

So while OU and Clemson have been better than Pac 12’s #1, there is a very steep drop off in both conferences after that
 
CU's record when we played in Texas every year and our record since we stopped playing in Texas every year.... 🤔

Big 12: 15yrs (Neu, Barnett, Hawkins)93 Wins91 Losses0.5004
Big 12: Last 10yrs (Barnett, Hawkins)60 Wins66 Losses0.4695
Pac 12: 10 yrs (Embree, MacIntyre, Tucker, Dorell)43 Wins75 Losses0.3754

4 Coaches in 10 years. Yikes.
 
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