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Official realignment thread - SEC formally invites OU and Texas to join the conference in 2025

onealcd

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Come Let Me Love You GIF
 

Jalapeno

Just gaming instead of watching crappy football.
Club Member
It’s a dumb move for CSU, so I’m pretty sure they’ll do it.

CU made a similar move a little over 80 year ago. How did that work out for CU besides athletics? AAU membership granted in 1966 after joining a conference with three AAU members at the time in KU, MU, and NU. Iowa State joined in 1958.

You should be questioning how Utah got to two P5 members once BYU joins the Big 12 before Colorado did. If CSU was to become P5, wouldn't it give CU a kick in the pants to take athletics seriously?

Sometimes you have to make that kind of move in order to get to where you ultimately want to go. Did going from D2 to D1 for Northern Colorado make any sense? Maybe not but they still did it so they could stick out as the lone FCS school in the region.
 

onealcd

Club Member
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CU made a similar move a little over 80 year ago. How did that work out for CU besides athletics? AAU membership granted in 1966 after joining a conference with three AAU members at the time in KU, MU, and NU. Iowa State joined in 1958.

You should be questioning how Utah got to two P5 members once BYU joins the Big 12 before Colorado did. If CSU was to become P5, wouldn't it give CU a kick in the pants to take athletics seriously?

Sometimes you have to make that kind of move in order to get to where you ultimately want to go. Did going from D2 to D1 for Northern Colorado make any sense? Maybe not but they still did it so they could stick out as the lone FCS school in the region.
The point is that the new AAC and mountain west are very similar conferences. I can understand Air Force wanting to go to be with the other service academies but for CsU it doesn’t really do anything other than they have to travel longer distances to play for all sports.

also Utah got to where they are at because the state cares about and supports football and is in a non diluted market with only one professional team.
 

Jalapeno

Just gaming instead of watching crappy football.
Club Member
The point is that the new AAC and mountain west are very similar conferences. I can understand Air Force wanting to go to be with the other service academies but for CsU it doesn’t really do anything other than they have to travel longer distances to play for all sports.

also Utah got to where they are at because the state cares about and supports football and is in a non diluted market with only one professional team.

You are right that the AAC and MWC are very similar conferences & Utah support. CU was willing to travel longer to those Big 8 locales in order to elevate itself and that could be one reason why CSU could be making that move.

One way to look at CSU's move is as a reactionary move to the inevitable departure from the MWC of Boise State and likely San Diego State. Boise State's "special deal" when it comes to the media rights deals will go away after the MWC's current deal ends later this decade.
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
The point is that the new AAC and mountain west are very similar conferences. I can understand Air Force wanting to go to be with the other service academies but for CsU it doesn’t really do anything other than they have to travel longer distances to play for all sports.

also Utah got to where they are at because the state cares about and supports football and is in a non diluted market with only one professional team.
I think the AAC is a stronger basketball conference. I also think Boise State (and maybe SDSU) remains a flight risk from the MWC, so CSU could very well be jumping ship before it sinks. And of course they can still play Wyoming annually in a non-conf matchup.
 

onealcd

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I think the AAC is a stronger basketball conference. I also think Boise State (and maybe SDSU) remains a flight risk from the MWC, so CSU could very well be jumping ship before it sinks. And of course they can still play Wyoming annually in a non-conf matchup.
Where are boise and sdsu going?
 

Jalapeno

Just gaming instead of watching crappy football.
Club Member
Where are boise and sdsu going?

Big 12 is what is being said but those two could end up going to the AAC anyway. Boise State is not happy with losing that special deal with the MWC where they could sell their home football games to the highest bidder after the current MWC media deal expires.

There is a lot of upside with SDSU due to its new stadium being constructed and new research facilities being set up. They no longer will have to compete with the Chargers for fans in their city.
 

CarolinaBuff

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I know they don’t add much, but it wouldn’t upset me if the PAC 12 added SDSU. I know that might not make it past the snobs in Berkeley, Palo Alto and Westwood, but I think they’d be a good fit. JMHO.

Highly doubtful. But how many yes votes are required to approve expansion? If it's only 75% then maybe, although I would think the 4 CA schools would be a no vote.
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
One other things to be aware of on the MWC front: two teams are sometimes at risk of falling below the FBS attendance minimums: Wyoming and Utah State. Utah State has actually fallen below the required 15,000 season average, and Wyoming has hovered just above it for a long time as well. (Wyoming was falling below it in the early 2000s until the NCAA changed it to allow turnstile OR paid tickets).

Truth be told, if the P4 conferences really do break away, they'll be fine, but if the structure remains similar to today with 130 schools trying to play FBS football, there are 15-20 schools in FBS that should probably drop to FCS.
 

onealcd

Club Member
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Except in $. The AAC's member school payout is almost 2x the MWC. You can weigh other things when the money is in the same ballbark, but when it's 2X - that's very hard to ignore.
That is as of right now though, they just lost their top 3 tv draws.
 

Buffs35

Well-Known Member
The MWC is likely falling apart. It's a good move for CSU and AFA because they won't have an FBS conference soon if they don't make the move now. Everyone is trying to find a lifeboat on the Titanic.
Plus they can lie to themselves by saying things like "cultural fit" and "academic peers" when things go to chit. Good times.
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
That is as of right now though, they just lost their top 3 tv draws.
Bottle of whiskey says that the new AAC contract will be *at least* 1.5x larger than new MWC contract.

I actually think it will stay in the 2x range (call that the over/under line), and that 2.5x is as likely as 1.5x.

1.5x is a sure bet IMO.
 

SINKRATZ

PhD in Analogy
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I know they don’t add much, but it wouldn’t upset me if the PAC 12 added SDSU. I know that might not make it past the snobs in Berkeley, Palo Alto and Westwood, but I think they’d be a good fit. JMHO.
I might be thinking about it to play a little defense. Being the only P5 in California is a pretty big deal I think. The SEC moving into Texas didn’t work out so we’ll for the Big12.
 

Jalapeno

Just gaming instead of watching crappy football.
Club Member
Bottle of whiskey says that the new AAC contract will be *at least* 1.5x larger than new MWC contract.

I actually think it will stay in the 2x range (call that the over/under line), and that 2.5x is as likely as 1.5x.

1.5x is a sure bet IMO.

The AAC is also said to be adding UAB and I have been seeing talk about Birmingham drawing very impressive TV numbers for college football. There is no doubt they are watching Alabama & the SEC but the AAC might be able to convince ESPN for more $ if UAB comes into the AAC.
 

Jalapeno

Just gaming instead of watching crappy football.
Club Member
I know they don’t add much, but it wouldn’t upset me if the PAC 12 added SDSU. I know that might not make it past the snobs in Berkeley, Palo Alto and Westwood, but I think they’d be a good fit. JMHO.

Those snobs will not be able to ignore SDSU that much longer and if those snobs want to expand the PAC to where the original Pac-8 has its own division, SDSU is going to have to be part of that expansion no questions asked.
 

onealcd

Club Member
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Bottle of whiskey says that the new AAC contract will be *at least* 1.5x larger than new MWC contract.

I actually think it will stay in the 2x range (call that the over/under line), and that 2.5x is as likely as 1.5x.

1.5x is a sure bet IMO.
Zero chance the AAC loses its today three programs and gets the same contract.
 

Jalapeno

Just gaming instead of watching crappy football.
Club Member
Zero chance the AAC loses its today three programs and gets the same contract.

Still an upgrade over what the MWC is getting and even if it's 1.5X, being on ESPN's family of channels is worth something.
 

Jalapeno

Just gaming instead of watching crappy football.
Club Member
The MWC probably will stay at 10 football members and they could add Gonzaga for basketball after getting rid of AFA & CSU. Big upgrade for basketball in that conference.

AFA is also pumping in money into their stadium: https://www.afacademyfoundation.org/s/1885/21/interior.aspx?sid=1885&gid=2&pgid=709

Total is said to be $180M when all done so like CSU, AFA is in the same boat when it comes to paying for a new stadium or upgrades.
 

onealcd

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Still an upgrade over what the MWC is getting and even if it's 1.5X, being on ESPN's family of channels is worth something.
An extra million dollars isn’t that meaningful to these programs because they don’t make much. Especially when you factor in all of the travel required for every sport.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
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I know they don’t add much, but it wouldn’t upset me if the PAC 12 added SDSU. I know that might not make it past the snobs in Berkeley, Palo Alto and Westwood, but I think they’d be a good fit. JMHO.
I think the bigger issue is money since SDSU doesn't add a market. Pac-12 already has full media distribution in San Diego.
 

Not Sure

Sets low bar, barely exceeds it.
Club Member
I think the bigger issue is money since SDSU doesn't add a market. Pac-12 already has full media distribution in San Diego.
I get that, thus my comment about them not adding much. Still, it’s a solid program in a large city and it helps solidify the West Coast for college athletics. Adding SDSU and UNLV while CSU and AF bolt for the AAC would effectively kill the MWC and probably help open up some room for negotiation with the next media contract. Basically, it makes it so that any West Coast content is Pac. It puts a dagger through the heart of programs like San Jose St, UNM, Hawaii, Wyo and Fresno, but that’s not really our problem. Boise St is kind of left to fend for themselves, but that’s also not really our problem.
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
An extra million dollars isn’t that meaningful to these programs because they don’t make much. Especially when you factor in all of the travel required for every sport.
Wait, wha?

The precise reason an extra million is meaningful is because they don't make much.

If I make $35 million, an extra $1 million is one thing, but if I make $4, it's meaningful.

Current contract numbers we're talking about going from $4 to $7. Even if your travel expenses go up by $1, you're increasing your payoff by 1.5x - that's meaningful.

A $15k/year raise is *a lot* more important to someone who makes $40k/year than it is to someone who makes $350k/year.
 

Jalapeno

Just gaming instead of watching crappy football.
Club Member
An extra million dollars isn’t that meaningful to these programs because they don’t make much. Especially when you factor in all of the travel required for every sport.

Ask Louisville how much ESPN helped them get into a P5 conference. Bruce Benson talked about how much it meant to have CU play in a primetime slot on ESPN. Going from CBS, CBS Sports Network, Fox, and FS1 to ESPN is an upgrade in eyeballs no ifs or buts about it.

Each school has its own marketing department and athletics can be viewed as an extension of it. Most of the nation's population lives east of the Rockies so this still could be a very good move for CSU even if I'm not seeing it right now.

And for the traveling, there is a way around it. CSU could simply do round robins against their AAC West competitors while doing one game with their East rivals. I already stated here that the travel to most of those AAC schools isn't that much different from going to California. It isn't really that much different from what CSU has in the MWC which are charted flights to every MWC school save for Wyoming & AFA. Is losing those games at Wyoming really that big of a deal? It's just ONE bus trip they are losing.
 
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