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Official realignment thread - SEC formally invites OU and Texas to join the conference in 2025

Jalapeno

Halo & Gears of War: A nice duo.
Club Member
I get that, thus my comment about them not adding much. Still, it’s a solid program in a large city and it helps solidify the West Coast for college athletics. Adding SDSU and UNLV while CSU and AF bolt for the AAC would effectively kill the MWC and probably help open up some room for negotiation with the next media contract. Basically, it makes it so that any West Coast content is Pac. It puts a dagger through the heart of programs like San Jose St, UNM, Hawaii, Wyo and Fresno, but that’s not really our problem. Boise St is kind of left to fend for themselves, but that’s also not really our problem.

This makes sense.

Boise State can go independent and park their sports in the Big Sky Conference until they get a P5 invite which doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon so they very well could just go to the AAC whether they want to or not.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
I get that, thus my comment about them not adding much. Still, it’s a solid program in a large city and it helps solidify the West Coast for college athletics. Adding SDSU and UNLV while CSU and AF bolt for the AAC would effectively kill the MWC and probably help open up some room for negotiation with the next media contract. Basically, it makes it so that any West Coast content is Pac. It puts a dagger through the heart of programs like San Jose St, UNM, Hawaii, Wyo and Fresno, but that’s not really our problem. Boise St is kind of left to fend for themselves, but that’s also not really our problem.
If they wanted to go crazy, there's a path to 20 with a Pac-10 & Mountain-10.

Put SDSU & UNLV with the original Pac-8.

To UA, ASU, Utah & CU we add Boise, BYU, Houston, TCU, OSU & TTU.

I don't think we'd like the cross-division scheduling limits, but we'd certainly own the West for media footprint.
 

Not Sure

Sets low bar, barely exceeds it.
Club Member
If they wanted to go crazy, there's a path to 20 with a Pac-10 & Mountain-10.

Put SDSU & UNLV with the original Pac-8.

To UA, ASU, Utah & CU we add Boise, BYU, Houston, TCU, OSU & TTU.

I don't think we'd like the cross-division scheduling limits, but we'd certainly own the West for media footprint.
Something like that could be in the works, but there are a lot of steps between where we are now and that arrangement. And while those schools, by themselves, add very little in terms of eyeballs and TV sets, they do command a very large geographic area that is necessary for media distribution.
The first thing they will have to do is figure out how the whole conference agreement with the B1G and ACC will work. I think that has to be at the top of the agenda for all three conferences. Figure that out, then move from there.
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
If they wanted to go crazy, there's a path to 20 with a Pac-10 & Mountain-10.

Put SDSU & UNLV with the original Pac-8.

To UA, ASU, Utah & CU we add Boise, BYU, Houston, TCU, OSU & TTU.

I don't think we'd like the cross-division scheduling limits, but we'd certainly own the West for media footprint.
If you wanted to drive some really fun late season games with high viewership/ratings for middling teams, bifurcate the 20 team league into two football tiers, sell the media rights separately, with the two tiers getting different payouts, and... create a relegation system.

I actually think the threat of getting relegated might be the only thing that gets our university leadership (regents and presidents) to actually do anything to help with football success.

But damn, would you create some really interesting late season games among teams that in the current system no one cares about.
 

SBP

Club Member
Club Member
The Mountain West is (by definition) a regional conference. The AAC is a national league. Moving is a clear upgrade in terms of exposure. I don't really understand what could possibly be the downside for CSU to moving.
 

Not Sure

Sets low bar, barely exceeds it.
Club Member
I hate the idea of relegation. It does nothing to elevate the teams that are relegated. I agree that it would make for some interesting viewing opportunities.
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
I hate the idea of relegation. It does nothing to elevate the teams that are relegated. I agree that it would make for some interesting viewing opportunities.
You do realize that it's not a one way door down, right? Teams would move up too.

You'd probably need to do a slide down/ratchet up on the payouts so that AD's budgets literally don't drop off a cliff, but until schools (and CU in particular) start actually losing money and prestige from playing ****ty football, they're not going to change.

For many, many years the most profitable NFL franchise was the same franchise that lost the most games (Tampa). Then the NFL changed some of their rules, and being a ****ty team was no longer a path to extra profits.

I have no problem with a college conference that does the same thing - in fact, I'm beginning to think that's the only way CU will ever get moderately good football again.
 

Bill Cody

Club Member
Club Member
You do realize that it's not a one way door down, right? Teams would move up too.

You'd probably need to do a slide down/ratchet up on the payouts so that AD's budgets literally don't drop off a cliff, but until schools (and CU in particular) start actually losing money and prestige from playing ****ty football, they're not going to change.

For many, many years the most profitable NFL franchise was the same franchise that lost the most games (Tampa). Then the NFL changed some of their rules, and being a ****ty team was no longer a path to extra profits.

I have no problem with a college conference that does the same thing - in fact, I'm beginning to think that's the only way CU will ever get moderately good football again.
I could be wrong with some of these numbers, but my quick and dirty assessment seems to support my current feelings on this situation:

The CU AD historically runs a relatively balanced budget hovering around $90M. Before the pandemic, they realized almost $24M in ticket sales revenue (mostly from Football). The AD is filled with fixed costs, not the least of which is Salaries, and ~$10M per year in financing costs for the Champions Center. It will get everyones attention if people stop going to games and the AD is faced with borrowing significant sums from the University in order to meet its obligations......or significantly cut overhead.

So this is where I currently am; I am no longer motivated to support this with my time and $$, until I feel reciprocal support from the leadership of the University. Full stop
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
I could be wrong with some of these numbers, but my quick and dirty assessment seems to support my current feelings on this situation:

The CU AD historically runs a relatively balanced budget hovering around $90M. Before the pandemic, they realized almost $24M in ticket sales revenue (mostly from Football). The AD is filled with fixed costs, not the least of which is Salaries, and ~$10M per year in financing costs for the Champions Center. It will get everyones attention if people stop going to games and the AD is faced with borrowing significant sums from the University in order to meet it's obligations......or significantly cut overhead.

So this is where I currently am; I am no longer motivated to support this with my time and $$, until I feel reciprocal support from the leadership of the university. Full stop
Yeah - there's just nothing I see from anyone at CU that they have any idea of the cliff they are heading towards.

I expect full on panic next spring when season ticket renewals, well don't.
 

Bill Cody

Club Member
Club Member
Yeah - there's just nothing I see from anyone at CU that they have any idea of the cliff they are heading towards.

I expect full on panic next spring when season ticket renewals, well don't.
Exactly. I won't throw out the annual number we contribute to this endeavor, but it isn't insignificant. There are many others I know that see the writing on the wall, and are preparing to halt support. I would hope that RG catches wind of it before going over the edge of a cliff, but I am not holding my breath. The next 8-10 months should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
 

Jalapeno

Halo & Gears of War: A nice duo.
Club Member
I could be wrong with some of these numbers, but my quick and dirty assessment seems to support my current feelings on this situation:

The CU AD historically runs a relatively balanced budget hovering around $90M. Before the pandemic, they realized almost $24M in ticket sales revenue (mostly from Football). The AD is filled with fixed costs, not the least of which is Salaries, and ~$10M per year in financing costs for the Champions Center. It will get everyones attention if people stop going to games and the AD is faced with borrowing significant sums from the University in order to meet its obligations......or significantly cut overhead.

So this is where I currently am; I am no longer motivated to support this with my time and $$, until I feel reciprocal support from the leadership of the University. Full stop

CU fans have appeared to continue going to CU football games and still fill up Folsom Field despite subpar football dating back to the Dan Hawkins days. That gave the administration the impression that CU fans are going to come no matter what product is put out on the football field just like ****er fans.
 

Not Sure

Sets low bar, barely exceeds it.
Club Member
You do realize that it's not a one way door down, right? Teams would move up too.

You'd probably need to do a slide down/ratchet up on the payouts so that AD's budgets literally don't drop off a cliff, but until schools (and CU in particular) start actually losing money and prestige from playing ****ty football, they're not going to change.

For many, many years the most profitable NFL franchise was the same franchise that lost the most games (Tampa). Then the NFL changed some of their rules, and being a ****ty team was no longer a path to extra profits.

I have no problem with a college conference that does the same thing - in fact, I'm beginning to think that's the only way CU will ever get moderately good football again.
I do realize that, but CU will never make the kind of investments that USC, Oregon, or even places like ASU and Washington make. I would see the system you describe as a quasi-permanent relegation for CU, with the permanently lower revenues that would result.
 

skibum

Did not pee on the Alamo.
Club Member
I do realize that, but CU will never make the kind of investments that USC, Oregon, or even places like ASU and Washington make. I would see the system you describe as a quasi-permanent relegation for CU, with the permanently lower revenues that would result.
That's just it - we don't have to get that level to be average.

I'm just sick and tired of 11th or 12th. A consistent 5th-8th would be a solid improvement at this point.
 

Buffnik

Real name isn't Nik
Club Member
Junta Member
That's just it - we don't have to get that level to be average.

I'm just sick and tired of 11th or 12th. A consistent 5th-8th would be a solid improvement at this point.
We see a lot of arguments like that which go to the extreme. "We can't recruit like Bama. We can't spend like UT." How about we try to catch and pass programs like Iowa State?
 

MtnBuff

Not allowed in Barzil 2
Club Member
One other things to be aware of on the MWC front: two teams are sometimes at risk of falling below the FBS attendance minimums: Wyoming and Utah State. Utah State has actually fallen below the required 15,000 season average, and Wyoming has hovered just above it for a long time as well. (Wyoming was falling below it in the early 2000s until the NCAA changed it to allow turnstile OR paid tickets).

Truth be told, if the P4 conferences really do break away, they'll be fine, but if the structure remains similar to today with 130 schools trying to play FBS football, there are 15-20 schools in FBS that should probably drop to FCS.
This is going to be very hard to take for a lot of fan bases but I see an eventual complete re-organization of college football based almost entirely on the financial capacity and willingness of the schools involved to keep up with the arms race we are seeing in facilities and coaching and even more so in athletes being paid in excess of tuition books room and board.

We will see a top tier, mostly schools in the Southeast and Midwest plus a few coastal schools (USC, Oregon, Washington) who become essentially a professional football organization. 25-40 programs.

Next tier will be most of the rest of the current P5 plus a few top G5 schools who are willing to step up to the second level. 40-60 programs

The rest of G5 plus the top of FCS goes to the next level playing on a regional basis with more modest budgets. 40-80 programs.

Then what is mostly current D2 plus some current FCS schools dropping down for lower budgets as well.

A lot of schools will initially try their hands at playing a level higher than they are willing or able to fund but will eventually be forced to drop down to a more reasonable level. With the media attention (and revenue) focused on the higher levels schools will see that their return on investment isn't justified and drop down. We will also see some schools drop football all together.

A school like Wyoming is going to be stuck in this scenario. Their fans are rabid and faithful but there simply are not enough of them. They can't generate the money needed from ticket sales. With the move away from fossil fuels the economic boost provided by energy is fading so both taxes and donations are declining and not likely coming back anytime soon.

Wyoming (and likely Utah State and many others) would probably be much better off being big fish in the FCS level rather than marginal at best at the bottom of G5 and left behind as their conference mates head off other directions.

They would be much better off competing on an even basis with the schools from neighboring Montana, the Dakotas, etc.
 

onealcd

Club Member
Club Member
The Mountain West is (by definition) a regional conference. The AAC is a national league. Moving is a clear upgrade in terms of exposure. I don't really understand what could possibly be the downside for CSU to moving.
I think you need to do a google search on the term “National”
 

onealcd

Club Member
Club Member
Come Let Me Love You GIF
 

Denver_sc

Club Member
Club Member
I might be thinking about it to play a little defense. Being the only P5 in California is a pretty big deal I think. The SEC moving into Texas didn’t work out so we’ll for the Big12.
Holy ****... I just realized the next move for the SEC- they're going to add USC and UCLA.
 

Jalapeno

Halo & Gears of War: A nice duo.
Club Member
I could read that as outright asking for NIL sponsors

LOL...you don't have to read every thing literally. That Pony Up thing is a marketing thing and also their hand gesture. Think of it as SMU's version of the Hook Em gesture that Texas is well known for. This is something that five minutes of Google research will get you.


It's something that admitted students to their law school see: https://www.smu.edu/Law/Admissions/AdmittedStudents/Pony-Up


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1632972553397.png
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
LOL...you don't have to read every thing literally. That Pony Up thing is a marketing thing and also their hand gesture. Think of it as SMU's version of the Hook Em gesture that Texas is well known for. This is something that five minutes of Google research will get you.


It's something that admitted students to their law school see: https://www.smu.edu/Law/Admissions/AdmittedStudents/Pony-Up


View attachment 47177
View attachment 47178
1. Of course I don't, and in this case, I didn't.
2. I'm aware SMU uses that expression in their athletic marketing
3. Please note, my comment was "I could read it..." And not "I am reading it...". I feel you may have misread my post, based on your response.
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
The focus for commissioner Mike Aresco has been to solidify the AAC’s status as the No. 6 conference. To do that, the preferred track would be kneecapping its most prominent rival in the Mountain West by adding Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force and Colorado State to form a league that would reach all corners of the country.
...
But Aresco is aggressively making the case that the AAC would preserve its television contract with ESPN — worth roughly $7 million annually per school — by adding those four and particularly Boise State, which is considered by analysts the most valuable television property not currently in a Power Five league.

If Aresco is correct that the value of the AAC’s television contract won’t change, those Mountain West schools could roughly double their money by making the move.

Yahoo link
 
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MiamiBuffs

YYZ
Club Member
Say what you will about RG-but one of the best things he's done for this FB program is make it really clear to CSU that we're done playing them in Denver and every year. As far as AFA, ehhhhhhhh.......I don't see that making sense for either of us, but I do think its ridiculous that the only time we've played them in my lifetime (I'm 35) was the game in 2019. Maybe 2-3 home and homes a decade?
Its a good thing too because theyd probably beat us this year.
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
What's next for realignment?

I don't believe I've ever before called out someone for doing "a Miami", but I feel compelled to note that not only did I post a link to that last night (two posts above yours), but you even 'liked' it.
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
it doesn't appear that I'm the only one lost in the details and repercussions of this NLRB ruling, but it appears to be a BFD.

The National Labor Relations Board’s general counsel on Wednesday issued a memorandum that says she views college athletes as employees of their schools under the National Labor Relations Act.
usatoday link

 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
Just wait til OSHA shows up for workplace safety and workers comp claims. 🤣

This should have been done years ago.
this is a good point. I would imagine that many employers are concerned enough over the risk of triggering an OSHA visit, where the inspectors will undoubtedly find much more than non-vax violations, that they'll enforce it even if they have leanings not to.
 
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Jalapeno

Halo & Gears of War: A nice duo.
Club Member
For good or just for now? Are both of them banking on a Big 12 invite? BSU would give them a top 3 mid major brand and a MTZ team and SDSU would get the Big 12 into SoCal and make them the first conference spanning all four time zones.

I'm much more confident for SDSU getting a P5 invite than Boise State. Boise State will not get into even the Big 12 if they don't elevate their research tier to 1 from 2. Memphis was also tier 2 and that is why they didn't come to the Big 12 and even had FedEx money ready to grease the wheels for that invite. What is interesting is that the Big 12 has BYU, Baylor, and TCU who are tier 2 private schools.

Believe it or not, every SEC school is tier 1 unlike the Big 12. Every other Big 12 school including UCF, UC, and Houston are tier 1 schools. Wake Forest is another P5 school that is not tier 1.

With CSU leaving the MWC if that happens, that will leave the MWC with UNM, Hawaii, UNR, and UNLV as their tier 1 schools.

Another thing going against BSU to the Big 12 is that BSU ($50M) is going to have to find an extra $20-25M in their athletic budget to get them in position. UCF ($69M), UC (a little under $69M), and Houston ($75M) budgets plus $20M extra from the media rights deal would put them at the level of ISU, KSU, TT, and WVU. SDSU's ($54M) new stadium and debt service on that stadium should get them within striking distance. BSU fans have been talking about another set of suite boxes on the other side of the stadium but will it be enough to get them up to $60-65M? CSU's move to the AAC would get them closer to $60-65M. Air Force is already at $60M. Those two have the biggest athletic budgets in the MWC not BSU & SDSU. Those numbers were taken from the most recent data from the Knight Commission.

I think BSU and SDSU are going to regret the decision to stay in the MWC.
 
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