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Official realignment thread - SEC formally invites OU and Texas to join the conference in 2025

The Alabaster Yak

Club Member
Club Member
As of right not tv markets are still a big part of the equation, there is no doubt about that. Even when things switch to streaming you are still going to be packaged with a network more than likely to force people to pay fees for your broadcast. That is why I still really want the pac 12 to go in big with fox since they have half the nfl contract and there is a lot of leverage there. Bringing cbs into the equation would be awesome too.
Yep. The CEO of some company who helped with the LHN and other CFB media deals was on the Dan Lebetard show and said that conferences getting into states they don’t have any presence in is a big deal, even if it’s a lower population state or program with a smaller following. Basically, everyone in that state is forced to pay subscriber fees (for those who haven’t cut the cord) once there’s a conference presence there. Because of that, Colorado would theoretically be pretty attractive for other conferences.
 

leftybuff

Unreconstructed Luddite
Club Member
I remember when Arky left the SWC. When they were mopping the floor with opponents in MBB, the Arky fans would chant SEC-SEC-SEC.

I foresee the land thieves doing the same, UT not so much.
 

onealcd

Club Member
Club Member
Yep. The CEO of some company who helped with the LHN and other CFB media deals was on the Dan Lebetard show and said that conferences getting into states they don’t have any presence in is a big deal, even if it’s a lower population state or program with a smaller following. Basically, everyone in that state is forced to pay subscriber fees (for those who haven’t cut the cord) once there’s a conference presence there. Because of that, Colorado would theoretically be pretty attractive for other conferences.
That was Dan skipper I believe, the former CEO of ESPN. In the future it won’t be nearly as crucial because it will likely be a flat fee for streaming with no in and out of footprint rate. That is why it is crucial for the Pac to be aligned with fox and have their games (and hopefully pac 12 network) as part of the standard package. Luckily seattle, La, Phoenix and the Bay Area are all nfc cities so it makes sense. Getting into texas to pair with the cowboys would also be a good idea, imo.
 

Jens1893

Moderator
Club Member
Junta Member
As of right not tv markets are still a big part of the equation, there is no doubt about that. Even when things switch to streaming you are still going to be packaged with a network more than likely to force people to pay fees for your broadcast. That is why I still really want the pac 12 to go in big with fox since they have half the nfl contract and there is a lot of leverage there. Bringing cbs into the equation would be awesome too.

Does FOX want to go big with anyone but the Big Ten?

How does CBS figure into this with them losing the SEC rights? Could NBC be interested or do they want to stay all in on Notre Dame?

NBCSN getting shut down sucks, but with NBC losing the NHL rights they may need some content and it they may have some room in their budget. Premier League rights from 2022 also don't have a home in the US right now and NBC needs content for Peacock. When I see what ESPN paid for La Liga rights (175m per, up from 30m or so) I won't be surprised if the Premier League rights go for 300m+. If NBC doesn't retain them, could they be interested in a deal with the Pac 12?

I think ESPN's intentions are clear (SEC and CFP) and I wouldn't be surprised if FOX goes all in on the B1G and becomes their exclusive home. The interesting questions are what CBS has in mind without the SEC rights and if NBC could be tempted.
 

SBP

Club Member
Club Member
Population still matters. If the trend towards super regionalization of CFB continues, it will be very bad for the game itself. You cannot hope to combat that trend if you are not in the areas where people live.
i'm not sure I agree with this. I think that success in the NIL era is going to be tied to fanbase loyalty. There are a lot of highly populated areas that don't support college football and visa versa. I contend that ***braska is going to do really well in the new era. I don't think that Alabama is is a very highly populated state, but they are obviously a big draw because of their success and their rabid fanbase.

I'm bullish on schools like NDSU, Wyoming and ISU. I can see those type of schools really being able to get really good players. As they become better the TV audience becomes more compelling for the broadcasters.

I am very nervous for CU prospects in the future.
 

onealcd

Club Member
Club Member
Does FOX want to go big with anyone but the Big Ten?

How does CBS figure into this with them losing the SEC rights? Could NBC be interested or do they want to stay all in on Notre Dame?

NBCSN getting shut down sucks, but with NBC losing the NHL rights they may need some content and it they may have some room in their budget. Premier League rights from 2022 also don't have a home in the US right now and NBC needs content for Peacock. When I see what ESPN paid for La Liga rights (175m per, up from 30m or so) I won't be surprised if the Premier League rights go for 300m+. If NBC doesn't retain them, could they be interested in a deal with the Pac 12?

I think ESPN's intentions are clear (SEC and CFP) and I wouldn't be surprised if FOX goes all in on the B1G and becomes their exclusive home. The interesting questions are what CBS has in mind without the SEC rights and if NBC could be tempted.
I think both CBS and NBC would love to have college football content but with our rights already tied up with espn and fox it could get tricky. We have to wait until the espn contract expires and put it out to market. I actually think that fox would love to go in big with the pac 12 too. The big 10 gets monster ratings and they could essentially have all of their programming from Saturday morning until Sunday night be football games. They have more money now with the big 12 going away and they are a west coast based network. As I said in another post, the pac 12 has 4 NFC dominated markets as well which is a good partnership.
 

Jens1893

Moderator
Club Member
Junta Member
I think both CBS and NBC would love to have college football content but with our rights already tied up with espn and fox it could get tricky. We have to wait until the espn contract expires and put it out to market. I actually think that fox would love to go in big with the pac 12 too. The big 10 gets monster ratings and they could essentially have all of their programming from Saturday morning until Sunday night be football games. They have more money now with the big 12 going away and they are a west coast based network. As I said in another post, the pac 12 has 4 NFC dominated markets as well which is a good partnership.

I am totally talking about the next P12 media rights deal here, not the current one. I think that will be a massively important moment for the P12 and will determine the future of the conference and maybe even its existence.

My preferred option would be a P12/FOX partnership and I think it's becoming even more obvious now just how big the ****up was when the P12 decided not to partner with an established media company for the P12N and keep it all in-house. The distribution thing has been discussed on here ad nauseum, but it'd also give you an established partner to fall back on in such perilous times. It'd be significantly harder for a network to ditch the P12 if they were business partners with the P12N, but with the way things are ESPN and FOX can easily ditch the P12 if they want and leave the P12 scrambling to find a new home.
 

onealcd

Club Member
Club Member
I am totally talking about the next P12 media rights deal here, not the current one. I think that will be a massively important moment for the P12 and will determine the future of the conference and maybe even its existence.

My preferred option would be a P12/FOX partnership and I think it's becoming even more obvious now just how big the ****up was when the P12 decided not to partner with an established media company for the P12N and keep it all in-house. The distribution thing has been discussed on here ad nauseum, but it'd also give you an established partner to fall back on in such perilous times. It'd be significantly harder for a network to ditch the P12 if they were business partners with the P12N, but with the way things are ESPN and FOX can easily ditch the P12 if they want and leave the P12 scrambling to find a new home.
It is really depressing because this was about half an hour from being perfect ten years ago until espn stepped in and “saved” the big 12. We wouldn’t have any issues with the pac 12 network if that went through.
 

Jens1893

Moderator
Club Member
Junta Member
It is really depressing because this was about half an hour from being perfect ten years ago until espn stepped in and “saved” the big 12. We wouldn’t have any issues with the pac 12 network if that went through.

For all the problems that come with getting involved with UT, getting the Longhorn and Sooner brand on board would have safeguarded the conference's future and me and others were painting out back then how that could leave you without any options in the future as the conference cannot go any further west.
 

CarolinaBuff

Club Member
Club Member
What’s the official ruling: Are TV markets important or not. We have people espousing their importance and others saying to don’t mean ****.

The general consensus seems to be that brand name means far more this time around. Which means a school like USC could be a huge domino in all this if another conference comes after them.
 

Bill Cody

Club Member
Club Member
2024 is the year the Big 12 rights expire. They'll be out before that once the lawyers get involved.
That’s the way I see it. The 2025 announcement is simply a game of chicken, because they know that the B12 will be absolutely dead in the water if they have to negotiate any sort of new media deal with a UT/OU exit on the horizon. Layer on top of this the fact that the other teams are in the B12 will be actively searching for a new home over the course of the next year, and there is no way I see OU/UT staying past 2023….I say they’re in the SEC next year.
 

chipwich

Soy Boy
Club Member
Junta Member
The general consensus seems to be that brand name means far more this time around. Which means a school like USC could be a huge domino in all this if another conference comes after them.
My PAC 12 "brand" rankings. Of course I'm biased :).

USC
UCLA
Oregon
CU
Washington
Stanford/Cal (tie)
Arizona
Utah
ASU
OSU/WSU (tie)
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
difficult to find information that quantifies brand ranking, but here's two sources that seemed relevant:
WSJ - 2019 "college football value rankings"
247 - 2020 "college football's 15 most valuable programs" -- doesn't list any Pac12 schools

WSJ lists the Pac:
  1. Washington
  2. Oregon
  3. USC
  4. UCLA
  5. ASU
  6. Stanford
  7. Utah
  8. Colorado
  9. Cal
  10. Arizona
 

InTheBuff

Club Member
Club Member
My PAC 12 "brand" rankings. Of course I'm biased :).

USC
UCLA
Oregon
CU
Washington
Stanford/Cal (tie)
Arizona
Utah
ASU
OSU/WSU (tie)
I'd put Washington ahead of CU unfortunately and maybe Oregon in front of UCLA but everything else I agree with.
 

chipwich

Soy Boy
Club Member
Junta Member
difficult to find information that quantifies brand ranking, but here's two sources that seemed relevant:
WSJ - 2019 "college football value rankings"
247 - 2020 "college football's 15 most valuable programs" -- doesn't list any Pac12 schools

WSJ lists the Pac:
  1. Washington
  2. Oregon
  3. USC
  4. UCLA
  5. ASU
  6. Stanford
  7. Utah
  8. Colorado
  9. Cal
  10. Arizona
I think value is different than brand.
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
found another, from Forbes

  1. Oregon
  2. USC
  3. Washington
and this, whoever sportskeeda is:
  1. Oregon
  2. USC
  3. Washington

all the data that I encounter reinforces my belief that Allbuffs over-values USC. Happy to see something new that supports the notion of USC being the top brand in the Pac12.
 

hokiehead

Gobbler on the Mountain!
Club Member
No conference would want Oregon over USC.
like I posted above, I'm open minded to new data. I may be incorrect, but everything I see outside of this board reinforces my perception that USC is over-valued on Allbuffs.

here's a different take, based on social media engagement

CU is way more recognizable nationally than Stanford or UDub from a brand perspective. The logo, the stadium, Ralphie,..
not sure I agree, but regardless, brand recognition != brand value (but I suspect there's a correlation)

here's the first source I found in google on college brand recognition. it is based on global recognition, so if we're only interested in US this may not be as relevant. I'm struggling to find a recognition ranking based on only US.

1. Harvard University*

2. Massachusetts Institute of Technology*

3. Stanford University

4. University of Cambridge

5. University of Oxford

6. University of California, Berkeley*

7. Princeton University*

8. Yale University9. University of California, Los Angeles* (tie)

9. University of Chicago* (tie)

11. California Institute of Technology*

12. Columbia University*

13. The University of Tokyo

14. Tsinghua University

15. University of Michigan*

16. University of Pennsylvania*

17. Peking University

18. Cornell University (tie)

18. UCL (tie)

20. Imperial College London

21. Johns Hopkins University*

22. ETH Zurich—Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (tie)

22. University of Toronto* (tie)

24. National University of Singapore

25. London School of Economics and Political Science
 

patebuff

Club Member
Club Member
Does FOX want to go big with anyone but the Big Ten?

How does CBS figure into this with them losing the SEC rights? Could NBC be interested or do they want to stay all in on Notre Dame?

NBCSN getting shut down sucks, but with NBC losing the NHL rights they may need some content and it they may have some room in their budget. Premier League rights from 2022 also don't have a home in the US right now and NBC needs content for Peacock. When I see what ESPN paid for La Liga rights (175m per, up from 30m or so) I won't be surprised if the Premier League rights go for 300m+. If NBC doesn't retain them, could they be interested in a deal with the Pac 12?

I think ESPN's intentions are clear (SEC and CFP) and I wouldn't be surprised if FOX goes all in on the B1G and becomes their exclusive home. The interesting questions are what CBS has in mind without the SEC rights and if NBC could be tempted.
Fox will need more content than just the Big 10, IMO. With games on the big 10 network, you are looking at a few games per week on Fox and Fox sports channels. They'll need more than that unless they just want to use the main fox channel for college football.
 

Bill Cody

Club Member
Club Member
like I posted above, I'm open minded to new data. I may be incorrect, but everything I see outside of this board reinforces my perception that USC is over-valued on Allbuffs.

here's a different take, based on social media engagement


not sure I agree, but regardless, brand recognition != brand value (but I suspect there's a correlation)

here's the first source I found in google on college brand recognition. it is based on global recognition, so if we're only interested in US this may not be as relevant. I'm struggling to find a recognition ranking based on only US.

1. Harvard University*

2. Massachusetts Institute of Technology*

3. Stanford University

4. University of Cambridge

5. University of Oxford

6. University of California, Berkeley*

7. Princeton University*

8. Yale University9. University of California, Los Angeles* (tie)

9. University of Chicago* (tie)

11. California Institute of Technology*

12. Columbia University*

13. The University of Tokyo

14. Tsinghua University

15. University of Michigan*

16. University of Pennsylvania*

17. Peking University

18. Cornell University (tie)

18. UCL (tie)

20. Imperial College London

21. Johns Hopkins University*

22. ETH Zurich—Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (tie)

22. University of Toronto* (tie)

24. National University of Singapore

25. London School of Economics and Political Science
California, and especially L.A. are fickle markets, but they do support winners. USC is a true blue blood in a talent rich recruiting bed, and you better believe that if they had a 2004esq team right now, their following and brand value would be absolutely through the roof. The thing about USC is that it really doesn’t take much for them to get there, but much like UT, their leadership has been a hindrance to their success. I believe Allbuffs as a whole inherently knows this to be true.

Also, Mike Bohn FTMFW
 
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