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Over or under 2 wins in 2022?
- Thread starter RalphieMalph
- Start date
Also, no way play calling could be worse, amirite?
We just picked up a disciple of Dan Reeves football, so I'm not entirely sure about that.
This is like comparing CSU and Nebraska, but I'd throw large sums of money that Sanford is a better OC than Chev. In fact, that has already been proven
I was considerably more excited for 2013, honestly.The few number of people who expect to win 5+ this year really reinforces how disheartened I feel about the program.
WWCD
Well-Known Member
I agree, I thought 2012 was the absolute low point and that we would be back to consistent bowl games by now. It's been twenty years since we were a respectable program, that's enough to kill the passion of the most ardent fan.
I think there's quite a bit of herd mentality around the program right now, led by the most pessimistic fans. We blew out Arizona and beat Washington and Oregon State last year with the worst offense in CU history, but somehow both OSU and Arizona are being chalked up as losses this year by most, with what will definitely be an improved and better coordinated offense.The few number of people who expect to win 5+ this year really reinforces how disheartened I feel about the program.
I don't think they are a bowl team by any means, but the fire takes about 0 or 1 win are a bit over the top, IMO. I tend to think 4 is where they end up again, and now I'm upset that I'm trying to argue the optimistic side by saying they could win 4-5 games.
I still think 3 wins is the high water mark. Could be 2.
Have to admit I'm one of those thinking 1 or 2 wins at this point but I can also see a scenario where we win 4 games. It's not likely but 2-1 in OOC is possible and then winning 2 of the first 5 conference games is certainly within reason.
I might not be adequately taking into account how miserable the bottom half of the Pac12 might be.
I don't follow the team that closely anymore so I'm probably swept up in the negativity and not seeing the positives but as far as I can tell, all of our best players graduated or transferred out.
GuySmiley
Don't Drink the Kool-Aid
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I'm disheartened, some of it is the program upheaval/talent level but quite a bit of it to me is the brutal schedule. Even with a reasonable team over the past 15 years, CU would be an underdog on many of those games. However, I'm somehow keeping optimism for 4-5 wins (1-2 OCC, but I can't predict which game), but have no expectations. For some reason, I think the overall team may gel a bit and play with a chip on their shoulder or "us against the world." Hopefully, they show up and play like they have everything to gain, and nothing to lose.
Also, I point out that other than Utah, Oregon, @Minn and UCLA; many of the teams will be integrating tons of new players/parts and systems, so I would be ecstatic with a surprise win here or there. Oregon and Washington have new coaches, however with Oregon CU does not matchup well and they will probably run most of the same stuff. But @Washington could be a CU upset. @Oregon State has less integration, but CU's talent should be somewhat comparable. Unless CU's QB does the annual "road stinker," CU could be competitive in that game.
CU has played pretty well recently against UCLA at home, so I'm hoping for a good game. Perhaps, ASU implodes on the field this year. UofA has not proven anything yet and are integrating a ton of players. Also, at some point, CU will beat USC for the 1st time in program history. CU will be a huge underdog to USC, however USC is plugging in so many players into new coaches, that they have to experience some growing pains plus with all the hype they may be under tons of pressure. Perhaps, the talent is just so great they will be Top-3 in the PAC-12, but I'm not holding my breath on that-- too many moving parts. If CU somehow wins at USC, I'll take that in a heartbeat heading into next season--even with 2-3 wins. Also, even an Embo team found a way to beat Utah, and their number is about up for CU to pull a stunner.
IMO, looking back the offensive coaching over the past 3-4 years, could not have been much worse. I wanted it to work out for Chiv, but it just did not. Our Oline will be tough to improve, but I'm hoping Sanford can just coordinate a better product. BLew is a year older and hopefully Shrout is healthy for another option. Although CU lost position players on O, they had some decent backups and for the new players maybe having less film on them will be helpful.
It is just a brutal schedule. If CU can win 3 of their 1st 8 games, I could see a 4th win, which would be an upset and despite missing a bowl again. Given an upset we would feel much better about this team into the next season. CAL followed by @UofA are the must wins.
Your post is a good one, but I just don't get the thinking that this is a "brutal schedule". It certainly isn't when you compare it to the schedule of any Big Ten East division team, or any SEC team. I guess it is a brutal schedule for CU. But if CU were a halfway competitive program, it would be considered to be a solid schedule. The fact is that the Pac 12 is bad, and CU is still likely to be noncompetitive in at least half of its games.
It's a tough schedule with no OOC cupcakes, which is why most people here are suggesting 2-3 wins max. Last season they had a built in win against UNC in week one, that was essentially replaced by Air Force (in the Springs) this year.
This is from USA Today where they ranked CU as the 2nd toughest schedule in the Pac 12
What it doesn't even touch on is that the November slate is Oregon at home, @USC, @Washington and home vs Utah. It's a brutal way to end the season and Oregon, USC and Utah is every bit as tough as what most of the B1G East has to face.
It's a good thing the back end of our schedule is harder. We've been worse in November as long as I can remember. At least we get the crappier teams up front when we have a chance.
The other thing that inflates our schedule toughness when compared to other Pac-12 teams is that we don't get to play Colorado.
It's not a coincidence CU routinely has one of the hardest schedules in the nation and its not because of scheduling.
If only we could play ourselves. Though I’m not sure how “showcase” victories add up the standings.
Getting TCU and Dykes the first game of the year (and first game for Dykes at TCU) is as perfect as they will get. I don't see this team improving as the season goes on because of the November slate and CU's lack of depth.
I don't think this will happen, but I wouldn't be shocked if this team had a 2018 type season.
More often than not, we aren’t even able to muster the strength to play ourselves in the spring
If we lose that home opener to TCU, it is going to be a REALLY ugly year.
I wish for the best...
We were bad last year and we didn't get better for a tougher schedule.
We lost most of the players we had who were good enough to start or even play much for other P5 level teams and the guys we brought in are mostly not as good.
We fired our incompetent OC and replaced him with a guy who was fired for being incompetent.
I could see us winning a couple of games simply because our opponents are as much of a mess as we are but even staying the same means we are falling further behind the teams at the top of our conference.
We lost most of the players we had who were good enough to start or even play much for other P5 level teams and the guys we brought in are mostly not as good.
We fired our incompetent OC and replaced him with a guy who was fired for being incompetent.
I could see us winning a couple of games simply because our opponents are as much of a mess as we are but even staying the same means we are falling further behind the teams at the top of our conference.
Another reason to fire RG
I've honestly moved my line up to 3-4 wins. We're still not good, but we're probably good enough to squeak out 1 noncon win if things break right and 2 conference wins just because we play some mediocre teams at home. Then maybe one unexpected upset win at home? We can beat ASU and Cal at home. We won't win a road game next year. My biggest concern is the team starting 0-4 then going to Tucson with low morale and losing there. If that scenario plays out you're looking at a one win season.
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I think TCU is more of a coin flip in game one at home than people (including Vegas) think, and I think they beat AFA. I also believe they can beat ASU and Cal at home and I think they can beat OSU and Arizona on the road. I think the rest of the games range from very unlikely to no hopers, but I believe those are 6 games that are all "winnable" for this team provided they sustain no significant injuries. In my estimation, 6 winnable games likely results in 4 wins.
I like your optimism, and it is exactly where I was with this team last year. This year, I see 4 winnable games resulting in 2 wins. I hope your prediction (or better) comes true. But this is the worst situation I can remember for CU football since Chuck Fairbanks.
They will be dogs to TCU, AF and MN and will be getting beat badly in Nov. Oregon, USC, Washington and Utah. Maybe they find one or two wins but this team will not hold up to this schedule. Going to be a very long year