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2012-13 Bubble Watch

Wednesday's bubble action

Arizona State at Utah -- Arizona State put themselves on the wrong side of the bubble with their home loss to Stanford. Simply put, a loss at Utah would be the nail in the coffin on their hopes, as their RPI is already 65th.

North Carolina at Duke -- At 16-7, 6-4, the Heels are far from safety for the time being. Their remaining slate is quite difficult. This is a big opportunity for them to cement themselves, but chances are Carolina will be a bubble team until the bitter end.

Ole Miss at Texas A&M -- this is a huge game for a Rebel team that's lost 3/4 and just got thumped at Mizzou. Rebs are sitting 18-5, 7-3, but their RPI is only 47th. Their remaining schedule is light, but if they pick up a loss in College Station, the margin for error will be very, very slim.

Creighton at Northern Iowa -- Suddenly, Creighton is close to danger after a bad home loss to Illinois State. This is a tricky road game for them, and would be their 3rd straight loss. RPI is 46th.

Iowa State at Texas -- Iowa State isn't in bad shape for now at 16-7, 6-4, RPI 37th. But a bad loss at Texas would be devastating and could put them on the wrong side of the bubble. They don't have an easy remaining schedule, either.

Missouri at Mississippi State -- Missouri has to learn how to win a road game. RPI is still a healthy 33rd, but a loss at a miserable Mississippi State would be devastating and really put them in serious danger.

Purdue at Illinois -- The Illini have seemingly saved their season with wins over Indiana and at Minnesota to get to 17-8, 4-7. Still, that terrible conference record leaves little room for error. If they get caught napping, they'll fall back into serious danger.

West Virginia at Baylor -- Baylor is in trouble at 15-8, 6-4 with and RPI of 53rd. Their remaining schedule is difficult. They've got no room for bad losses, like West Virginia, and need to find a way to get a couple quality wins down the stretch.

UNLV at Air Force -- Rebels got a big win over New Mexico to put them in good shape. RPI is very solid 20th. However, Air Force is no easy place to play, and with SDSU, CSU and at Wyo coming up, UNLV needs to tread very carefully.

I'm counting Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and Oregon as safe for now.

I'm counting Florida State, Arkansas, Washington and Wyoming as toast.
 
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I didn't think Kentucky was a worthy tourney team coming into tonight ranked #25 at 17-6 (8-2). Their best win of the year in the non-conference was Maryland. Pretty much their only decent win outside SEC play. In SEC play, their claims to fame are winning at Ole Miss and splitting with aTm. Weak. Now 17-7 (8-3) with an RPI of #44 that's inflated by virtue of losing to a bunch of good teams. If ever a team was ranked and considered tourney-worthy based on reputation and recruiting rankings, it is Kentucky this year.

Really sad to see the Nerlens Noel injury, though. Kid looked like he really ripped up his knee. Karma to him.

I'm not sure Kentucky can get any quality wins without him. They could also rack up some bad losses with a road-heavy remaining schedule for the dangerous but below average teams that remain. They're going to have to win those road games. Can maybe afford 1 slip up if they can beat Mizzou in Lexington (Mizzou's horrible on the road, so they've got a shot there).

@ Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Missouri
Mississippi State
@ Arkansas
@ Georgia
Florida
 
Buffnik said:
I didn't think Kentucky was a worthy tourney team coming into tonight ranked #25 at 17-6 (8-2). Their best win of the year in the non-conference was Maryland. Pretty much their only decent win outside SEC play. In SEC play, their claims to fame are winning at Ole Miss and splitting with aTm. Weak. Now 17-7 (8-3) with an RPI of #44 that's inflated by virtue of losing to a bunch of good teams. If ever a team was ranked and considered tourney-worthy based on reputation and recruiting rankings, it is Kentucky this year.

Really sad to see the Nerlens Noel injury, though. Kid looked like he really ripped up his knee. Karma to him.

I'm not sure Kentucky can get any quality wins without him. They could also rack up some bad losses with a road-heavy remaining schedule for the dangerous but below average teams that remain. They're going to have to win those road games. Can maybe afford 1 slip up if they can beat Mizzou in Lexington (Mizzou's horrible on the road, so they've got a shot there).

@ Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Missouri
Mississippi State
@ Arkansas
@ Georgia
Florida
Click to expand...

North Carolina's claim to fame isn't much better. Home wins over UNLV and Maryland are their claim to fame. UNLV is about to hit a rough stretch and likely drop a couple more. Heels also lost to Texas for heaven's sake, and it took overtime for them to beat Virginia Tech in Chapel Hill. The 'Carolina refs' will be out in full force when UVA visits on February 16th, but if Carolina has shown anything worthy of being an NCAA Tournament team thus far, I haven't seen it. Heels are sitting 16-7, 6-4. VERY conceivable they go 4-4 in their final 8, if not 3-5.
 
Virginia's resume -- easily the weirdest out there. 18-6, 8-3 ACC. Each of their 6 losses was a game they were favored to win.

RPI Breakdown

8-0 against RPI 100

5-5 against RPI 101-200

6-1 RPI 201-347
 
CVilleBuff said:
Virginia's resume -- easily the weirdest out there. 18-6, 8-3 ACC. Each of their 6 losses was a game they were favored to win.

RPI Breakdown

8-0 against RPI 100

5-5 against RPI 101-200

6-1 RPI 201-347
Click to expand...

UVA's resume reads as a team that is likely to perform better in the NCAA than the CBI. :lol:
 
Buffnik said:
UVA's resume reads as a team that is likely to perform better in the NCAA than the CBI. :lol:
Click to expand...

Very true. Committee is going to have their hands full with them. That loss to Old Dominion was just baffling and probably singlehandedly has their RPI 20 spots lower than it would be. They're a young, talented team that looks like they've finally figured it out, though. Scariest sign for opponents is their offense is averaging 78 points over their last 3 games while their defense is nasty as ever. They legitimately look like the 3rd best team in the ACC right now, and their 8-3 record proves it. It's going to be one hell of a bubble battle in Chapel Hill on Saturday. UVA definitely still has their work cut out to get in -- they need a minimum of 11-7 ACC record and most likely 12-6 -- but if they get in they are going to be a low seed that no one wants to face. Like Wisconsin, Virginia has a defense that causes absolute havoc.
 
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CVilleBuff said:
North Carolina's claim to fame isn't much better. Home wins over UNLV and Maryland are their claim to fame. UNLV is about to hit a rough stretch and likely drop a couple more. Heels also lost to Texas for heaven's sake, and it took overtime for them to beat Virginia Tech in Chapel Hill. The 'Carolina refs' will be out in full force when UVA visits on February 16th, but if Carolina has shown anything worthy of being an NCAA Tournament team thus far, I haven't seen it. Heels are sitting 16-7, 6-4. VERY conceivable they go 4-4 in their final 8, if not 3-5.
Click to expand...

I hope I'm wrong but I think they'll finish fairly strong. State won't beat them in Chapel Hell and I wouldn't even be surprised if they split with Duke.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
I hope I'm wrong but I think they'll finish fairly strong. State won't beat them in Chapel Hell and I wouldn't even be surprised if they split with Duke.
Click to expand...

I think you overrate their abilities. They are more than capable of losing to NCSU and UVA in Chapel Hill, and roadies at Maryland and Clemson will not be easy.
 
tante said:
Good find. Oregon needs to right the ship or they are going to be left out on selection Sunday. Their 101 SOS, looks eerily similar to ours in 2011. The good news for them is they have more wins than we did (and thus a higher RPI).

It is weird to say that about a team still ranked in the top 25.
Click to expand...

yep, very good point . Oregon is nowhere near as safe as people think. They need a decent finish or they're in trouble
 
I'd say the Duke game is a toss up as per usual. It's been harped on but Kelly makes a big difference for them. Anybody can beat anybody these days it seems. Miami is the best team in the ACC, maybe the country. I'd love to see them and Indiana play.
 
Ole Miss falls at Texas A&M 69-67 to drop to 18-6, 7-4. No chances for quality victories left on their schedule. Ole Miss is officially in bubble-land. If they win out, they'll be safe, but one unexpected slip up and they could be on the outside looking in. That RPI will drop into the 50s after tonight's loss.
 
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LaSalle escaped at St. Bonaventure 69-66 in OT to avoid a devastating loss and keep their hopes alive by improving to 17-6, 7-3
 
Lots to report from the 1st round of games tonight.

Charlotte won at Bucknell and is now 18-6 (6-4). Charlotte needed a signature win and got it.

La Salle won in OT at St. Bonaventure and is now 17-6 (7-3). They couldn't have afforded a loss in that one. Now looking better for Dance.

Ole Miss lost at Texas A&M and is now 18-6 (7-4). Ole Miss is playing its way out of the tourney.

Miami won at Florida State. This may have been the last shot for the Seminoles to recover and Dance. Now 13-11 (5-6). Done.

Doesn't change anything, but I also wanted to note that Notre Dame went to OT again and beat DePaul. The Irish are becoming the cardiac kids of this season.
 
Buffnik said:
Lots to report from the 1st round of games tonight.

Charlotte won at Bucknell and is now 18-6 (6-4). Charlotte needed a signature win and got it.

La Salle won in OT at St. Bonaventure and is now 17-6 (7-3). They couldn't have afforded a loss in that one. Now looking better for Dance.

Ole Miss lost at Texas A&M and is now 18-6 (7-4). Ole Miss is playing its way out of the tourney.

Miami won at Florida State. This may have been the last shot for the Seminoles to recover and Dance. Now 13-11 (5-6). Done.

Doesn't change anything, but I also wanted to note that Notre Dame went to OT again and beat DePaul. The Irish are becoming the cardiac kids of this season.
Click to expand...

Correct to Butler. Huge win for the 49ers. Their hopes were gone without that win.
 
Yup, big win for Charlotte and that gets them back into the bubble discussion. That's Butler's first loss at home this season.
 
Buffnik said:
Thanks for the correction.

What do you think about the MAC? Is it possible that both Ohio and Akron get in?
Click to expand...

If Ohio won the MAC Tournament, it's conceivable, but I tend to doubt it.. Akron lacks a big name OOC win. MTSU is good, but that's not exactly an attention grabber. That mid-50's RPI is risky business.
 
UCF got destroyed at Memphis. That game was its best opportunity to get in the conversation for the Dance. No way now.

Southern Miss survived a home game against a dangerous Tulane. S.Miss is moving into decent position for a bid.

Missouri destroyed a horrible Miss State team, 78-36. But Mizzou needed some road mojo. They should be dancing. 2-bid SEC with Florida and Mizzou? That's how I'd do it if I was on the selection committee.

Arizona State lost at Utah, 55-60. Sun Devils played no one in the non-conference and can't afford these types of losses with their SOS. It would take a miracle for them to get a Dance card.
 
Creighton just lost at N. Iowa. That's a tough place to play, but still a loss that hurts a lot. MVC is starting to look like a 1-bid league. A week and a half ago, I was thinking it was a 3-bid league. But Indiana State also lost one it shouldn't this week at Missouri State. Not good. MVC tourney champ goes Dancing and that should be it.
 
The Utah win is huge for us. Puts us closer to that 4 seed and improves Utah's RPI.
 
UNLV got smacked at Air Force to fall to 18-7, 5-5. Still a very solid RPI for the Rebs, but they will need to be careful down the stretch.


This is an extremely soft bubble, folks. CU is in fantastic shape.
 
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Illinois avoided the hangover loss with a solid win over an ok Purdue. They're getting close to "lock" status with everything else that's going on.

North Carolina missed its opportunity at Duke, losing 68-73. I think the Tar Heels are still on the right side of things, but it's nowhere near safe.

Arkansas won at Auburn (horrible team). As ridiculous as it is, 15-9 (6-5) Arkansas in the awful SEC is still on the bubble with this road win.

Baylor's up 20+ late at home against West Virginia. Good for their resume and an RPI bump for us.
 
VERY conceivable North Carolina could go 3-4 in their final 7. They better watch out coming off an emotional rivalry against Duke with a Virginia team who hates their guts and is playing very solid basketball coming to visit on Saturday. I'm sure the Carolina Mafia will have the refs like Karl Hess and Jamie Luckie, the two most notorious Carolina knob lickers, out in full force to save the Heels' March Madness hopes though.
 
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