2012-13 Bubble Watch

[CVilleBuff]

Lunardi still has us as a 9 seed.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I'd feel somewhat decent about our chances against a Minnesota team that's sliding, but admittedly don't know enough about the ins-and-outs of the matchups. That's for teets to enlighten us on if it actually happened.

He also has 6 Pac-12 teams in at the moment, with Arizona State and Cal being in his 'Last Four In'. I don't care if Cal had to go the Play-In Game or not, giving them a 12 seed in San Jose would be a potential route to the Sweet 16

 

[Junction]

I'd feel somewhat decent about our chances against a Minnesota team that's sliding, but admittedly don't know enough about the ins-and-outs of the matchups. That's for teets to enlighten us on if it actually happened.

He also has 6 Pac-12 teams in at the moment, with Arizona State and Cal being in his 'Last Four In'. I don't care if Cal had to go the Play-In Game or not, giving them a 12 seed in San Jose would be a potential route to the Sweet 16

Particularly with the juicy 5/12 game they would have in the second round. It's a virtual free pass to the round of 32. Definitely a shot for them against Okie Lite, too.

Although I thought the same last year until the got gutted in the "first" round (play-in game).

Wouldn't mind a matchup with the Golden Goofies at all. Just for the opportunity to harass Teets for a week, if nothing else...

 

[Jello Bear]

The CollegeBasketballTalk bracket has us as a 10 seed in San Jose: http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...-1-seed-in-latest-bracket-projection/related/

EAST – Washington, DC MIDWEST- Indianapolis Philadelphia Dayton 1) MIAMI-FL 1) INDIANA 16) NORTHEASTERN 16) SOUTHERN / NORFOLK STATE 8) Minnesota 8) UCLA 9) Missouri 9) Creighton Salt Lake Austin 5) Colorado State 5) Pittsburgh 12) Temple / Arizona State 12) BELMONT 4) Marquette 4) Oklahoma State 13) LOUISIANA TECH 13) DAVIDSON Philadelphia Salt Lake 6) OREGON 6) NC State 11) MID TENNESSEE ST 11) California 3) SYRACUSE 3) NEW MEXICO 14) VALPARAISO 14) STONY BROOK Auburn Hills Lexington 7) VCU 7) Illinois 10) Oklahoma 10) La Salle 2) Michigan 2) Louisville 15) HARVARD 15) S.F. AUSTIN SOUTH – Dallas WEST – Los Angeles Auburn Hills Lexington 1) Michigan State 1) FLORIDA 16) HIGH POINT / WAGNER 16) MERCER 8) UNLV 8) MEMPHIS 9) WICHITA STATE 9) Saint Louis Kansas City Austin 5) Butler 5) Wisconsin 12) Villanova / Virginia 12) Iowa State 4) KANSAS STATE 4) Georgetown 13) AKRON 13) BUCKNELL San Jose Kansas City 6) Ohio State 6) Notre Dame 11) Baylor 11) North Carolina 3) Arizona 3) Kansas 14) MONTANA 14) SOUTH DAKOTA ST Dayton San Jose 7) Cincinnati 7) San Diego State 10) Mississippi 10) Colorado 2) Duke 2) GONZAGA 15) NIAGARA 15) LONG BEACH

I would take that pairing if we are a 10 seed....

 

[Daaah]

The CollegeBasketballTalk bracket has us as a 10 seed in San Jose: http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...-1-seed-in-latest-bracket-projection/related/

EAST – Washington, DC MIDWEST- Indianapolis Philadelphia Dayton 1) MIAMI-FL 1) INDIANA 16) NORTHEASTERN 16) SOUTHERN / NORFOLK STATE 8) Minnesota 8) UCLA 9) Missouri 9) Creighton Salt Lake Austin 5) Colorado State 5) Pittsburgh 12) Temple / Arizona State 12) BELMONT 4) Marquette 4) Oklahoma State 13) LOUISIANA TECH 13) DAVIDSON Philadelphia Salt Lake 6) OREGON 6) NC State 11) MID TENNESSEE ST 11) California 3) SYRACUSE 3) NEW MEXICO 14) VALPARAISO 14) STONY BROOK Auburn Hills Lexington 7) VCU 7) Illinois 10) Oklahoma 10) La Salle 2) Michigan 2) Louisville 15) HARVARD 15) S.F. AUSTIN SOUTH – Dallas WEST – Los Angeles Auburn Hills Lexington 1) Michigan State 1) FLORIDA 16) HIGH POINT / WAGNER 16) MERCER 8) UNLV 8) MEMPHIS 9) WICHITA STATE 9) Saint Louis Kansas City Austin 5) Butler 5) Wisconsin 12) Villanova / Virginia 12) Iowa State 4) KANSAS STATE 4) Georgetown 13) AKRON 13) BUCKNELL San Jose Kansas City 6) Ohio State 6) Notre Dame 11) Baylor 11) North Carolina 3) Arizona 3) Kansas 14) MONTANA 14) SOUTH DAKOTA ST Dayton San Jose 7) Cincinnati 7) San Diego State 10) Mississippi 10) Colorado 2) Duke 2) GONZAGA 15) NIAGARA 15) LONG BEACH

I would take that pairing if we are a 10 seed....

Oh that would make my ****ing day. I think we could beat Gonzaga too. That big guy would be tough to handle though.

 

[FightCu1414]

I would rather be a 10 compared to an 8/9 for obvious reasons. Gonzaga would be a tough game, but i would imagine it would be highly competitive.

 

[FightCu1414]

Oh that would make my ****ing day. I think we could beat Gonzaga too. That big guy would be tough to handle though.

I would fly out to that game too. Gonna have to keep the SDSU fans away.

 

[Jello Bear]

CSEwe would have a nice path to the Sweet 16, although a potential ASU matchup would be an interesting (and probably bloody) game to watch. If their fans gave a ****, they would probably be able to own SLC that weekend.

 

[Junction]

CSEwe would have a nice path to the Sweet 16, although a potential ASU matchup would be an interesting (and probably bloody) game to watch. If their fans gave a ****, they would probably be able to own SLC that weekend.

Buttchinski vs. that Iverson dude from CSEwe would be like watching a heavyweight MMA bout...

 

[Buffnik]

Wichita State got a huge win at Indiana State. That should do it for them (and end Indiana State).

NC State also looks like they sealed it by whipping Florida State.

Some other games to keep an eye on (all are very close right now):

S Illinois @ Creighton. Creighton can't lose this one.
Virginia @ Miami. UVA needs another quality win.
Florida @ Missouri. Mizzou could use another quality win.
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech. Not a game the Tar Heels can lose.
Maryland @ Boston College. Maryland would erase a lot of the benefit of the Duke win if they don't get this one.
Utah State @ BYU. I think they're both NIT teams, but who knows this year. Winner helps itself a ton.
Wyoming @ San Diego State. Wyoming could get in the conversation if it wins this. SDSU gets bubbly if it loses.

 

[CVilleBuff]

UVA's best post player is out with mono. I have my concerns about an extremely young team holding up at this point in the season, but Miami is not going undefeated in the ACC. Virginia is still sitting 8-4 in the ACC, better than Carolina or Maryland

Georgia Tech has been playing MUCH better in recent weeks, but Carolina probably has too much class.

Maryland has work to do still IMO. 6-6 in the ACC.

 

[prime teets]

Particularly with the juicy 5/12 game they would have in the second round. It's a virtual free pass to the round of 32. Definitely a shot for them against Okie Lite, too.

Although I thought the same last year until the got gutted in the "first" round (play-in game).

Wouldn't mind a matchup with the Golden Goofies at all. Just for the opportunity to harass Teets for a week, if nothing else...

? i would be furious if we lost to the gophers, and we probably would soley because of trevor "scrotum head" mbakwe.

 

[duaneallman8]

Am I correct in thinking nobody actually has a clue about seedings?

 

[wyobuff]

Wichita State got a huge win at Indiana State. That should do it for them (and end Indiana State).

NC State also looks like they sealed it by whipping Florida State.

Some other games to keep an eye on (all are very close right now):

S Illinois @ Creighton. Creighton can't lose this one.
Virginia @ Miami. UVA needs another quality win.
Florida @ Missouri. Mizzou could use another quality win.
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech. Not a game the Tar Heels can lose.
Maryland @ Boston College. Maryland would erase a lot of the benefit of the Duke win if they don't get this one.
Utah State @ BYU. I think they're both NIT teams, but who knows this year. Winner helps itself a ton.
Wyoming @ San Diego State. Wyoming could get in the conversation if it wins this. SDSU gets bubbly if it loses.

I think wyoming is done, as much as I hate to say that about the pokes. They lost their 3 point threat to a bar fight/assault charge, and their leading scorer/rebounder (washington) is out for this sdsu game w an ankle injury sustained in the OT win over the weekend. I had high hopes when we went up there and lost, but it's basically been all downhill for them after that.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Am I correct in thinking nobody actually has a clue about seedings?

There's been remarkably little variation between all the 'bracketologists' out there. They are set on CU being a 9 at the moment, only one has CU as a 10. Of course, you're right that no one actually has a clue if that's how it will play out. These guys are usually quite close, but there are inevitably cases where they fail -- perhaps most notably everyone having CU in, without too much to worry about in 2011, only to be rejected...

 

[CVilleBuff]

Virginia falls 54-50 at Miami. Virginia deserves to be in the Dance, but they need to finish strong. They'll beat Duke at home next week and that'll lock them in. 8-5 ACC with GT at home next.

Maryland is going to fall at Boston College. Maryland won't be making the Dance IMO. 6-7 ACC.

Carolina wins at GT. 8-5 ACC.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Mizzou upsets Florida 63-60 in Columbia. Not sure I'd qualify Mizzou as a real bubble team, but this will lock them in, now 19-7, 8-5. I still think the Gators are one of the best 4 teams in the country, but that's JMHO.

Saint Louis got a big home win over VCU tonight, 76-62. Saint Louis is now 20-5, 9-2....also known as essentially safe. VCU is still safe as well.

 

[Buffnik]

Mizzou is a Top 10 team if it played all its games in Missouri.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Mizzou is a Top 10 team if it played all its games in Missouri.

Appears they're pretty decent on neutral courts, 3-1 this season. Beat Stanford and VCU, but got thumped badly by Louisville, all of those early in the Bahamas. Also beat Illinois in St. Louis. That's not a team I'd be trilled about running into in my second game if I'm a 1 or 2 seed. Both Lunardi and Palm had Mizzou as a 9 seed before their win tonight.

 

[FightCu1414]

Mizzou is a Top 10 team if it played all its games in Missouri.

That sounds familiar.

 

[CVilleBuff]

More bubbly-ness tomorrow.

Ole Miss at South Carolina -- Rebs are 19-6, 8-4. RPI 53rd. The problem is, there's nothing remaining on their schedule that can really help them. It's essentially a bunch of this. Win does nothing to boost you, and a loss would be absolutely devastating. Ole Miss essentially has 6 games of this left.

South Florida at St. John's -- Red Storm sit 15-10, 7-6. RPI 58th. They've lost 3/4, but those losses have all been on the road to Georgetown, Syracuse and Louisville. This is the last easy game for the Johnnies, with Pitt, at Providence, at Notre Dame, Marquette remaining. Need to beat South Florida and then go at least 2-2

Air Force at Boise State -- Boise sits 16-8 but only 4-6 in the MWC. RPI 43rd. Air Force is 15-9, 6-5, but RPI is still lagging at 68th. Winner of this keeps their hopes alive.

Vanderbilt at Kentucky -- Kentucky is on the wrong side of the bubble right now, even with all the big name reputation in the world. They're 17-8, 8-4, but getting utterly slaughtered at Tennessee in their last game put them on the wrong side. A win over Vandy won't change their fortunes, but it can stop the bleeding and get them ready for a make-or-break type game when they host Mizzou in Lexington this weekend.

Mississippi State at Alabama -- Alabama has been below the radar in the atrocious SEC, but it's time to mention them as they sit 17-8, 9-3. That's good for the 2nd best record in the SEC. RPI 59th. Problem is their best wins are against Villanova and Kentucky, along with horrendous losses like Mercer, Tulane, and Auburn in which they scored 37. Even if the 'meh' holds and they lost their remaining valuable games at Florida and Ole Miss, but won the other 4, can a team that stands 13-5 in the SEC be rejected?

Iowa State at Baylor -- Cyclones are 17-8, 7-5. Bears 16-9, 7-5. ISU RPI 47th. Baylor RPI 56th. Both teams need this badly, but Baylor needs it more since it's at home and their RPI is on the edge of the major sketchy zone.

Washington State at Arizona State -- Scum Devils are 19-7, 8-5 via Sendek's methods of turning basketball into rugby, knocking players unconscious, and being complete and utter pieces of ****. They have 7'2 dudes with pony tails, enough said. Their douchebag meter is literally off the charts, comparable to their **** RPI which sits at 70th. If the season ended right now they'd actually stand a good chance of sneaking into the field. However, their final 3 games are on the road and include UCLA and Arizona. They're a case that's likely to remain unclear until the conference tournament, unless they knock a few of UCLA or Arizona's starters unconscious and win one of those.

 

[wyobuff]

While I dont think that we are 100% off the bubble, check our numbers (Current as of 2/20/13) Colorado [17-8 (7-6), RPI: 21, SOS: 7]. Those are great numbers! The team with the lowest RPI to never make the dance was Missouri state (I think in 06?) of 21, but a far easier schedule.

Compare that to our numbers from the year we got bent over the barrel, and our profile as a whole just looks much better. From '11 Colorado Buffaloes (20-13, 8-8 Big 12; RPI: 66; SOS: 70). This year our SOS is way lower, RPI is lower, and we'll probably also hit the 20 win mark, and aside from that disaster in SLC, we've avoided bad losses (thanks to ski & jelly vs tx southern).

As long as we can avoid losing to bottom feeders utah & OSU at home, I think we are going to be just fine. Of course, going 4-1 over the last 5 and picking up a few more wins in the conf tourney wont hurt either.....

 

[Junction]

? i would be furious if we lost to the gophers, and we probably would soley because of trevor "scrotum head" mbakwe.

You think the fact that you would be rooting for CU has a damn thing with whether or not we would harass your Minnesoota ass all week leading up to that game?

It's like you don't know us at all.

 

[CVilleBuff]

While I dont think that we are 100% off the bubble, check our numbers (Current as of 2/20/13) Colorado [17-8 (7-6), RPI: 21, SOS: 7]. Those are great numbers! The team with the lowest RPI to never make the dance was Missouri state (I think in 06?) of 21, but a far easier schedule.

Compare that to our numbers from the year we got bent over the barrel, and our profile as a whole just looks much better. From '11 Colorado Buffaloes (20-13, 8-8 Big 12; RPI: 66; SOS: 70). This year our SOS is way lower, RPI is lower, and we'll probably also hit the 20 win mark, and aside from that disaster in SLC, we've avoided bad losses (thanks to ski & jelly vs tx southern).

As long as we can avoid losing to bottom feeders utah & OSU at home, I think we are going to be just fine. Of course, going 4-1 over the last 5 and picking up a few more wins in the conf tourney wont hurt either.....

Yep, we should be fine baring complete collapse. Can't lose to Utah and Oregon State. But this team shouldn't just be playing to just 'get in'. It's about finishing strong and thus improving seeding and trying to defend our Pac-12 championship. Polar opposite numbers of what kept us out in 2011, although that was a robbery based on who got in.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Ole Miss lost at South Carolina, 63-62. Bad, bad loss.

Ole Miss at South Carolina -- Rebs are 19-6, 8-4. RPI 53rd. The problem is, there's nothing remaining on their schedule that can really help them. It's essentially a bunch of this. Win does nothing to boost you, and a loss would be absolutely devastating. Ole Miss essentially has 6 games of this left.

 

[Buffnik]

Wow. Ole Miss is in serious danger now.

 

[Buffnik]

Minnesota losing badly to a good, but recently struggling, Ohio State team to fall to 6-8 in the B1G has got to have their fans sweating a bit. If not for that comeback OT win vs Wisconsin recently, they'd be in bad shape.

 

[Buffnik]

UMass lost at St. Bonny. That's a really tough loss for them.

UCF lost at home to Marshall. Pretty much ends any hope they had of sneaking in and making C-USA a 3-bid league.

 

[wyobuff]

Yep, we should be fine baring complete collapse. Can't lose to Utah and Oregon State. But this team shouldn't just be playing to just 'get in'. It's about finishing strong and thus improving seeding and trying to defend our Pac-12 championship. Polar opposite numbers of what kept us out in 2011, although that was a robbery based on who got in.

Agreed, I just dont know how much up-movement is going to benefit this team though. Right now we seem to be falling between and 8-10 seed, and honestly I'd rather have the 10 at this point. Winning an 8-9 game would almost certainly put us up against a 1 seed, and though I think we can beat lots of teams in this tourney, I'm not sure about our possibilities vs an Indiana, miami, 'cuse or some team of that caliber, and even more so on a neutral court (at best, 1's usually get 'favorable seeding').

I'd be perfectly happy in the 7-10 game, going most likely against a 3 seed. There's still a lot of basetball to be played and the pac12 tourney crown would be nice again but I was in ABQ for both games last year. It was clear even after they took the 56-55 lead vs baylor that they were running on borrowed energy. I think they are in better shape conditioning wise this year, so hopefully it wont be all bad.

I'm not advocating for playing 'to get in' - I'm hoping that this becomes/is a team that expects to dance, and has energy left to do so at the end of an already grueling season.

 

[CVilleBuff]

Agreed, I just dont know how much up-movement is going to benefit this team though. Right now we seem to be falling between and 8-10 seed, and honestly I'd rather have the 10 at this point. Winning an 8-9 game would almost certainly put us up against a 1 seed, and though I think we can beat lots of teams in this tourney, I'm not sure about our possibilities vs an Indiana, miami, 'cuse or some team of that caliber, and even more so on a neutral court (at best, 1's usually get 'favorable seeding').

I'd be perfectly happy in the 7-10 game, going most likely against a 3 seed. There's still a lot of basetball to be played and the pac12 tourney crown would be nice again but I was in ABQ for both games last year. It was clear even after they took the 56-55 lead vs baylor that they were running on borrowed energy. I think they are in better shape conditioning wise this year, so hopefully it wont be all bad.

I'm not advocating for playing 'to get in' - I'm hoping that this becomes/is a team that expects to dance, and has energy left to do so at the end of an already grueling season.

So win some games and get the 7 seed and be favored in the 7/10 :thumbsup:

It's another story for another day, but Miami losing much, much earlier than expected in the Dance would not surprise me.

 

[Darth Snow]

kansas in a close one so far with okie state. Baylor down 6 at half to Iowa state at home. god baylor is talented but they are awful at playing together.