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2012-13 Bubble Watch

Kentucky beat Mizzou in OT in Lexington.

That should mean that Kentucky's back on the right side of the Bubble. They're defending champs and hoops royalty. I've got no problem with them getting graded on the curve a bit.

Kentucky came into this with the #51 RPI. Mizzou came in at #37.

I actually think Mizzou's in more trouble than Kentucky is. An 8-6 record in the SEC is not something to be proud of this year. Last 4 games are @ South Carolina, LSU, Arkansas, @ Tennessee. 4-0 and they're in. 3-1 is bubble. 2-2 is bubble hell needing a strong showing in the conference tourney. 1-3 or 0-4 spell NIT for sure.
 
Buffnik said:
Kentucky beat Mizzou in OT in Lexington.

That should mean that Kentucky's back on the right side of the Bubble. They're defending champs and hoops royalty. I've got no problem with them getting graded on the curve a bit.

Kentucky came into this with the #51 RPI. Mizzou came in at #37.

I actually think Mizzou's in more trouble than Kentucky is. An 8-6 record in the SEC is not something to be proud of this year. Last 4 games are @ South Carolina, LSU, Arkansas, @ Tennessee. 4-0 and they're in. 3-1 is bubble. 2-2 is bubble hell needing a strong showing in the conference tourney. 1-3 or 0-4 spell NIT for sure.
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This probably puts Kentucky on the right side of things for now. Barely. Honestly, with UK still traveling to Arkansas and Georgia, I think they're going to lose one of those and have themselves on the wrong side of things for when Florida visits Rupp the final game of the regular season.

Mizzou should be in a bit of trouble. And their remaining schedule is full of land mines. Stay tuned on Mizzou, folks. Not a whole lot in the impressive wins category, and 8-6 in this pathetic SEC, which will be very fortunate if they get 3/14 teams in the Dance, is downright weak.
 
I'm trying to figure out why Lunardi has Indiana State on the bubble in his "First 4 Out" after beating Iona tonight.

Iona is a 15-13 MAAC team (9-7 in conference) that came in losers of 5 of its last 6... including friggin' Marist in a home game. Sub-100 RPI.

Indiana State is 17-12 (9-7) with an RPI of 61. They're 4th in the MVC behind the N Iowa team that got handled at home by Denver today. Kudos for beating Miami when they were a mess, but ISU has lost to friggin' Morehead State, Drake, S Illinois, Missouri State & Bradley (all sub-150). They had lost 3 in a row coming into the Iona game. I'd give my left nut to be playing Indiana State instead of Stanford in the upcoming road game.

Tourney team? Really?
 
Buffnik said:
I'm trying to figure out why Lunardi has Indiana State on the bubble in his "First 4 Out" after beating Iona tonight.

Iona is a 15-13 MAAC team (9-7 in conference) that came in losers of 5 of its last 6... including friggin' Marist in a home game. Sub-100 RPI.

Indiana State is 17-12 (9-7) with an RPI of 61. They're 4th in the MVC behind the N Iowa team that got handled at home by Denver today. Kudos for beating Miami when they were a mess, but ISU has lost to friggin' Morehead State, Drake, S Illinois, Missouri State & Bradley (all sub-150). They had lost 3 in a row coming into the Iona game. I'd give my left nut to be playing Indiana State instead of Stanford in the upcoming road game.

Tourney team? Really?
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It's trendy in recent years to be quite generous to the MVC based on snubs 5-10 years ago.
 
The bubble never sleeps this time of the year. Sunday's action

Pittsburgh at St. John's. Johnnies are 16-10, 8-6. RPI 59th. They're a long shot. Have wins over Notre Dame and Cincinnati, but losses to UNC-Asheville and San Francisco. Still, an above .500 record in the Big East would always get a serious look, but the fact of the matter is they only played Georgetown, Syracuse, Louisville and Marquette once. They need a big late push, a win over Pittsburgh would be a solid boost for their chances

Illinois at Michigan. Illini are 20-8, 7-7. RPI 34th. Their recent winning streak has saved their season, and they're nearly a lock to make it at this point, but going cold and having another losing streak to end the season is the only way to bring up any doubts. Obviously a tall task to win at Michigan, but if they want to lock it up in fashion, here's their chance.

Cincinnati at Notre Dame. Cincinnati is 19-8, 7-7. RPI 49th. They're definitely still on the right side of things, but they've lost 4/5, which is now raising some questions. They are in need of a win to stop the downfall, as they're headed the wrong way towards the bubble. Even after this difficult game, they still have UConn and at Louisville, before an easy one at home against South Florida. Basically, if they lose this one at Notre Dame, then UConn becomes close to a 'must win' to avoid being a bubble team.

Georgia Tech at Virginia. Hoos are 18-8, 8-5. RPI 77th. Some extremely bad early season losses when they were banged up to Old Dominion and Delaware. Yet solid wins at Wisconsin, North Carolina at home, NC State at home. Obviously a second loss to Georgia Tech would be the nail in the coffin for a team with an RPI like this. I still think UVA has a solid chance to get in, and give me this any day over some mid-major team with no bad losses, but no good wins. UVA's big opportunity to reach safety comes when Duke visits a raucous JPJ this Thursday.

Temple at Charlotte. Temple is 18-8, 7-5. RPI 50th. Charlotte is 18-7, 6-5. RPI 55th. Owls are coming off a crucial home win over La Salle, which might have them on the right side of things for the time being. Just barely. Charlotte is in desperation mode. This would be a solid win for them. Their remaining schedule is light, they'll need to win out in the regular season, snag a decent win or two in the A-10 tournament, and hope for the best. This is going to be a good one, both teams know what's at stake. Neither can afford to lose.
 
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Pitt has dominated St. John's on the road. That's about all she wrote for the Red Storm's hopes of the Big Dance
 
Pitt just went into St. John's and beat them by 16 at MSG. That's impressive as hell. For the Red Storm, this is the emotional return of Lavin and a game it needed with their backs against the wall (in Lunardi's "First 4 Out" entering today).

St. John's is done unless it goes on a run in the BE Tourney.

Pitt is the 4-6 seed that no one wants to face this year in the Dance.
 
Illinois lost by 13 at Michigan. It's going to be very interesting to see where the Illini get seeded. They could be a major bracket buster team or a first round exit.

Notre Dame is crushing Cincinnati 29-15 at the half. Cincy fans need to start being concerned.

La Salle is down 27-30 at Rhode Island at the half. They cannot lose this game.

Virginia with a healthy 12-point halftime lead at home over Georgia Tech. Avoiding the bad loss is necessary for UVA, but they'll need a bit more.
 
Buffnik said:
Illinois lost by 13 at Michigan. It's going to be very interesting to see where the Illini get seeded. They could be a major bracket buster team or a first round exit.

Notre Dame is crushing Cincinnati 29-15 at the half. Cincy fans need to start being concerned.

La Salle is down 27-30 at Rhode Island at the half. They cannot lose this game.

Virginia with a healthy 12-point halftime lead at home over Georgia Tech. Avoiding the bad loss is necessary for UVA, but they'll need a bit more.
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I'm at the UVA game, they're eyeing Duke on Thursday as their big chance, but even that may not be necessary if they take care of business in their other games, but it involves some tripwire road games
 
Virginia smoked Georgia Tech.
La Salle came back to win at Rhode Island.
Cincinnati got rolled by 21 at Notre Dame. Cincy now in a tie for 10th in the Big East. RPI in the low 50s. Trouble.
 
UVA could be a really nasty out for somebody if that get in. That defense is extremely hard to prepare for, and even if you're prepared, it's more than likely going to shut you down. However, those who think UVA only scores in the 50s have a surprise coming their way -- the can score in bunches. Tons of depth. They're starting to get healthy and the youth has clicked. They've scored 82, 81, 80 and 78 in recent games. I have a hard time believing a team like St. Mary's is any more deserving. A win over a seriously fading Creighton team at home as your only remotely decent win just doesn't really do it for me...
 
Temple won by about 20 at Charlotte. Temple remains in the conversation. Charlotte looks like they're too far out to get there no matter what they do the rest of the way.
 
Buffnik said:
Temple won by about 20 at Charlotte. Temple remains in the conversation. Charlotte looks like they're too far out to get there no matter what they do the rest of the way.
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Temple is probably just on the right side of the line right now. They've taken care of business these last 3 games winning on the road at UMass and Charlotte, and beating La Salle at home. Now 19-8, 8-5. RPI 42nd. Now they have a sneaky tough OOC game against Detroit, two easy ones in Rhode Island, at Fordham, and then wrap it up with VCU. They need to win their next 3, or they'll be in serious jeopardy heading into the VCU game.

And yeah, this is the end for Charlotte. Bubble burst. Pop.
 
Highwalker said:
Where do the bubble people have Iowa State? I'm quasi vested in the the clones now
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Sitting in 4th place in a respected Big 12 and having an RPI of 51, most think ISU (19-8, 9-5) is on the bubble and getting in depends on what the committee values this year.

For them, it absolutely comes down to their final four games (all very tough):

vs. Kansas
@ Oklahoma
vs. Oklahoma State
@ West Virginia

I would say that they control their own destiny. Get 2 of those and it would be almost impossible for the committee to snub them.
 
A couple important games for bubble teams Monday

Villanova at Seton Hall. Nova is 18-10, 9-6. RPI 54th. They're coming off a crucial win over Marquette that likely put them on the right side of the bubble. It proves that they didn't just have a random week where they got lucky and beat 'Cuse and Louisville and are otherwise an NIT team. However, their RPI is still in risky territory, and thus a loss to lowly Seton Hall would be immensely damaging to their hopes. This is a must win.

Iowa State hosts Kansas. ISU is 19-8, 9-5. RPI 51st. ISU has been playing well, but as Nik mentioned above, they have a brutal schedule to finish. They're on the right side of things for now, but they have to find a way to get a couple more wins if they want to feel safe on Selection Sunday. Nothing would do it like a win over Kansas with their 6th ranked RPI. This is definitely a game to keep an eye on, there's a few of these types of games this week, in which a powerhouse program visits a raucous arena with a team fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. Games like this are what college basketball is about.
 
CVilleBuff said:
A couple important games for bubble teams Monday

Villanova at Seton Hall. Nova is 18-10, 9-6. RPI 54th. They're coming off a crucial win over Marquette that likely put them on the right side of the bubble. It proves that they didn't just have a random week where they got lucky and beat 'Cuse and Louisville and are otherwise an NIT team. However, their RPI is still in risky territory, and thus a loss to lowly Seton Hall would be immensely damaging to their hopes. This is a must win.

Iowa State hosts Kansas. ISU is 19-8, 9-5. RPI 51st. ISU has been playing well, but as Nik mentioned above, they have a brutal schedule to finish. They're on the right side of things for now, but they have to find a way to get a couple more wins if they want to feel safe on Selection Sunday. Nothing would do it like a win over Kansas with their 6th ranked RPI. This is definitely a game to keep an eye on, there's a few of these types of games this week, in which a powerhouse program visits a raucous arena with a team fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. Games like this are what college basketball is about.
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I'd take a tough schedule to finish out the season (opps for big W's vs #9 KU, #14 Okie lite and a potential bubble team OU) rather than be in a situation like St Marys with no opportunities for a solid win left on the schedule to finish out the regular season.

Pray for the ducks to stay ranked until we play them (or cal to get ranked today?)
 
wyobuff said:
I'd take a tough schedule to finish out the season (opps for big W's vs #9 KU, #14 Okie lite and a potential bubble team OU) rather than be in a situation like St Marys with no opportunities for a solid win left on the schedule to finish out the regular season.

Pray for the ducks to stay ranked until we play them (or cal to get ranked today?)
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I think our finishing schedule is perfect. You want a fine line between too brutal and too easy, ours fits that.
 
tante said:
CVille slept once. On the night of September 10th 2001. He hasn't slept since.
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Nobody slept that night. We were all lamenting Ed McCaffery breaking his leg on Monday Night Football and wondering what it meant to the Broncos season. Thinking that his leg breaking was the end of the world for Brocos fans that season.
 
CVilleBuff said:
A couple important games for bubble teams Monday

Iowa State hosts Kansas. ISU is 19-8, 9-5. RPI 51st. ISU has been playing well, but as Nik mentioned above, they have a brutal schedule to finish. They're on the right side of things for now, but they have to find a way to get a couple more wins if they want to feel safe on Selection Sunday. Nothing would do it like a win over Kansas with their 6th ranked RPI. This is definitely a game f got keep an eye on, there's a few of these types of games this week, in which a powerhouse program visits a raucous arena with a team fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. Games like this are what college basketball is about.
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Self got T'd up less than 2 minutes into the game :lol:. Seems to have worked though ... essentially tied up with 7:00 to go in the 1st.
 
L Buff said:
Self got T'd up less than 2 minutes into the game :lol:. Seems to have worked though ... essentially tied up with 7:00 to go in the 1st.
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Tuning in now, both Iowa State and Villanova are in battles. If Nova loses this, they're in deep ****.
 
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