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24-25 MBB Team

Four of the five have pretty strong reasons as to why we underperformed. One was Spencer's injury year (still finished 4th). Three were because the roster didn't gel ('15, '17, and '23). The fifth was weird -- only really because of that late-season slide into COVID; prior to that they were in contention for the league title. I would argue only one of those was due to gross over-rating by the media -- 2015, the Ski as PG year.

We were picked lower than 8th in the P12 twice -- The first year in the league, when we surprised everyone, and Kin's frosh year (Kin guarantees we finish higher than 9th, and we do!... finishing in 8th thanks to a tie-break...)

Breakdown (preseason coaches poll v final finish):

- '11 (B12) - Picked 9th, Finished 5th
- '12 - Picked 10th, Finished 5th
- '13 - Picked 6th, Finished 5th

- '14 - Picked 3rd (1 1st place vote), Finished 4th -- Spencer's injury
- '15 - Picked 3rd, Finished 9th -- Ski as PG doesn't work, CBI Season

- '16 - Picked 7th, Finished 5th
- '17 - Picked 5th, Finished 7th -- Derrick White Year, Seniors don't gel
- '18 - Picked 9th, Finished 8th
- '19 - Picked 7th, Finished 5th

- '20 - Picked 2nd (Highest in Tad era), Finished 6th -- Karl Dorrell hire leaks during UCLA game, causing losing streak
- '21 - Picked 7th, Finished 3rd
- '22 - Picked 6th, Finished 4th

- '23 - Picked 6th, Finished 9th - KJ struggling with reins, year after Evan leadership void. Soon-to-be-Utah's #34 rides the struggle bus throughout the season.
- '24 - Picked 5th, Finished 3rd
The lower finishes seem like mostly injury related.

Spencer knee
J Scott's back
KJ illness & injury/ TDS injury

We probably benefited most years from Stanford being picked way too high, too.
 
The lower finishes seem like mostly injury related.

Spencer knee
J Scott's back
KJ illness & injury/ TDS injury

We probably benefited most years from Stanford being picked way too high, too.
And every year the media thinking Bobby Hurley was his brother and that Tad isn’t 10-5 over his career against Bobby. Looks like the Big 12 is falling for his big name recruits just like the Pac did.
 

Fun article. Battey helping Dak with his jumpshot and specifically his follow through. Battey was really speaking glowingly of Dak's ability. Sounds like Tad's really challenging him.
 
Four of the five have pretty strong reasons as to why we underperformed. One was Spencer's injury year (still finished 4th). Three were because the roster didn't gel ('15, '17, and '23). The fifth was weird -- only really because of that late-season slide into COVID; prior to that they were in contention for the league title. I would argue only one of those was due to gross over-rating by the media -- 2015, the Ski as PG year.

We were picked lower than 8th in the P12 twice -- The first year in the league, when we surprised everyone, and Kin's frosh year (Kin guarantees we finish higher than 9th, and we do!... finishing in 8th thanks to a tie-break...)

Breakdown (preseason coaches poll v final finish):

- '11 (B12) - Picked 9th, Finished 5th
- '12 - Picked 10th, Finished 5th
- '13 - Picked 6th, Finished 5th

- '14 - Picked 3rd (1 1st place vote), Finished 4th -- Spencer's injury
- '15 - Picked 3rd, Finished 9th -- Ski as PG doesn't work, CBI Season

- '16 - Picked 7th, Finished 5th
- '17 - Picked 5th, Finished 7th -- Derrick White Year, Seniors don't gel
- '18 - Picked 9th, Finished 8th
- '19 - Picked 7th, Finished 5th

- '20 - Picked 2nd (Highest in Tad era), Finished 6th -- Karl Dorrell hire leaks during UCLA game, causing losing streak
- '21 - Picked 7th, Finished 3rd
- '22 - Picked 6th, Finished 4th

- '23 - Picked 6th, Finished 9th - KJ struggling with reins, year after Evan leadership void. Soon-to-be-Utah's #34 rides the struggle bus throughout the season.
- '24 - Picked 5th, Finished 3rd
Thanks for all the info. I'l stick to my original assessment that Tad's teams are typically underrated. Based on the data, CU will finish around 11th-12th which still isn't great. I'd like to see them finish middle of the pack which would be pretty solid in this conference especially with a team that lost 3 to the NBA.
 
Yes, Tad is an excellent coach. His teams are prepared. However, he has never had a team void of a true leader, no player to go to in crunch time, no true scorer and every player on the roster is raw and unproven. I think the recruits Tad has coming in next year and with this years team a year older, next year they can win 15 or more games. This year I would not be surprised if the win total is between 4-10 games, the talent and experience just aren't there. If they win 8+ it is on the shoulders of Tad's coaching. There is a what if. What if the Baskin and Malone ball out and are 100% ready for this level - that changes everything
 
Thanks for all the info. I'l stick to my original assessment that Tad's teams are typically underrated. Based on the data, CU will finish around 11th-12th which still isn't great. I'd like to see them finish middle of the pack which would be pretty solid in this conference especially with a team that lost 3 to the NBA.
Look at the backcourts of every other team in the conference. Seriously. Take an honest look at what we'll see night in and night out. That's where we're going to have problems. Our ceiling is 12th if things fall into place. If not, we'll be in a 4-way fight for dead last with UU, OSU and ASU.
 
Look at the backcourts of every other team in the conference. Seriously. Take an honest look at what we'll see night in and night out. That's where we're going to have problems. Our ceiling is 12th if things fall into place. If not, we'll be in a 4-way fight for dead last with UU, OSU and ASU.
we can agree to disagree here. I've heard a lot of positive things about our incoming players. Tad has never finished last. It's not happening this year.
 
Reminder to everyone BYU was picked 13th out of 14th last year preseason in their first big 12 season and finished 5th and was a 6 seed in the tourney. UCF in their first big 12 season last season was picked dead last finished 12th out of 14th and made the NIT. The teams that finished 9-11 were all the the NCAA bubble. Oklahoma, Cincy, and Kansas State.

Crazy enough with the expanded league I think if we finish top 12 we have a great chance at the tourney. I wouldn't be shocked if 12-14 got NIT bids. This ain't the PAC. All of our losses will be good losses in league.
 
Yes, Tad is an excellent coach. His teams are prepared. However, he has never had a team void of a true leader, no player to go to in crunch time, no true scorer and every player on the roster is raw and unproven. I think the recruits Tad has coming in next year and with this years team a year older, next year they can win 15 or more games. This year I would not be surprised if the win total is between 4-10 games, the talent and experience just aren't there. If they win 8+ it is on the shoulders of Tad's coaching. There is a what if. What if the Baskin and Malone ball out and are 100% ready for this level - that changes everything
4 wins, come on. There was a previous post in this thread about how levels actually compare. So you saying CU is only capable of 4 wins is like saying they'd finish middle of the pack in the RMAC or worse. Mines, CMU, Fort Lewis are annually dodged by the likes of Big Sky and MWC schools because of a real chance to lose. Last year Metro who was only middle of the pack in the RMAC was not slaughtered by the 26 win CU squad, I believe it was a 20 point game, and that was after playing the previous evening in Laramie. CU will probably not win the BIG 12, they probably won't be last either. Most likely somewhere between 6 and 12. Which should get them in at minimum to the NIT. They have talent and capability. Give the sky is falling rhetoric a break already. You most likely don't know much about any of the guys other than what you might have seen in the past with the returning roster guys. They will step up and fill roles exited by departing guys. New guys will also fill roles. Until they actually start playing games it is impossible to know with any level of certainty what CU will be so until that point, you don't know dinky doo.
 
4 wins, come on. There was a previous post in this thread about how levels actually compare. So you saying CU is only capable of 4 wins is like saying they'd finish middle of the pack in the RMAC or worse. Mines, CMU, Fort Lewis are annually dodged by the likes of Big Sky and MWC schools because of a real chance to lose. Last year Metro who was only middle of the pack in the RMAC was not slaughtered by the 26 win CU squad, I believe it was a 20 point game, and that was after playing the previous evening in Laramie. CU will probably not win the BIG 12, they probably won't be last either. Most likely somewhere between 6 and 12. Which should get them in at minimum to the NIT. They have talent and capability. Give the sky is falling rhetoric a break already. You most likely don't know much about any of the guys other than what you might have seen in the past with the returning roster guys. They will step up and fill roles exited by departing guys. New guys will also fill roles. Until they actually start playing games it is impossible to know with any level of certainty what CU will be so until that point, you don't know dinky doo.
Hey Kool-Aid.... I didn't say they would only win 4 games. I said I wouldn't be surprised if they won between 4-10 games. They lost all 5 starters, and over 90% of scoring, assists, and rebounds, let that sink in and marinate. The leadership is gone, no proven scorers and very few upper classmen. the entire roster in raw and unknown with no go to players when you absolutely need a bucket. That is scary. You can dream of an elite 8 if you want to this years team, but the chances of having a winning record are very low. This is probably the least talented team Tad has ever had, absolutely in terms of experience. Significantly worse than the 2014 team which won 16 games and the 2017 team which won 17 games. In order for this team to win 15 games, so many things have to happen:
  • NAIA player needs to step up several levels and produce
  • Division II player needs to step up levels and produce
  • The two sophomore bigs need to have monumental jumps in their ability
  • PG play has to develop and improve significantly
  • Are the SG's able to defend on the perimeter? Can they shoot from three at this level with better players defending them?
  • There is no true Center
  • There is no one on the team that previously showed leadership qualities
All of that could evolve and they could beat seasoned, more skilled players at every position and have a winning record. But the chances of that are low, and that is keeping it 100% (not rhetoric).
 
I have very little doubt that Tad will exceed expectations. I also think that barring a miracle at the PG position, exceeding expectations means “10th to 14th”.

I am VERY concerned about the ESPN+ effect. It is great for the diehards. It is potential death for us in the national narrative. Barring a team that is special, we’re going to get even less attention than we did in the P12.
 
4 wins, come on. There was a previous post in this thread about how levels actually compare. So you saying CU is only capable of 4 wins is like saying they'd finish middle of the pack in the RMAC or worse. Mines, CMU, Fort Lewis are annually dodged by the likes of Big Sky and MWC schools because of a real chance to lose. Last year Metro who was only middle of the pack in the RMAC was not slaughtered by the 26 win CU squad, I believe it was a 20 point game, and that was after playing the previous evening in Laramie. CU will probably not win the BIG 12, they probably won't be last either. Most likely somewhere between 6 and 12. Which should get them in at minimum to the NIT. They have talent and capability. Give the sky is falling rhetoric a break already. You most likely don't know much about any of the guys other than what you might have seen in the past with the returning roster guys. They will step up and fill roles exited by departing guys. New guys will also fill roles. Until they actually start playing games it is impossible to know with any level of certainty what CU will be so until that point, you don't know dinky doo.
I will bet you any amount you choose the Buffs do not finish higher than 11th.
 
Hey Kool-Aid.... I didn't say they would only win 4 games. I said I wouldn't be surprised if they won between 4-10 games. They lost all 5 starters, and over 90% of scoring, assists, and rebounds, let that sink in and marinate. The leadership is gone, no proven scorers and very few upper classmen. the entire roster in raw and unknown with no go to players when you absolutely need a bucket. That is scary. You can dream of an elite 8 if you want to this years team, but the chances of having a winning record are very low. This is probably the least talented team Tad has ever had, absolutely in terms of experience. Significantly worse than the 2014 team which won 16 games and the 2017 team which won 17 games. In order for this team to win 15 games, so many things have to happen:
  • NAIA player needs to step up several levels and produce
  • Division II player needs to step up levels and produce
  • The two sophomore bigs need to have monumental jumps in their ability
  • PG play has to develop and improve significantly
  • Are the SG's able to defend on the perimeter? Can they shoot from three at this level with better players defending them?
  • There is no true Center
  • There is no one on the team that previously showed leadership qualities
All of that could evolve and they could beat seasoned, more skilled players at every position and have a winning record. But the chances of that are low, and that is keeping it 100% (not rhetoric).
100% Negative. This is the same reality most teams in the Big 12 are facing this year. Unproven talent at the elite level of college basketball with high turnover.
Most of the teams in the Big 12 had massive roster turnover so most of the teams are in a gray area. CU is in the same boat, they will find thier way.

Malone is a True center 6'10" 270lbs doesn't equate to much else. He's good back to the basket and can stick the three. From what I've seen on this site most people would say he's a step up from Eddie. Everyone gets hung up on levels. There is not a a distinct difference between mid level DI and High Level DII. So if everyone is swinging on Zeke Mayo coming from South Dakota State (From the Juggernaut Summit League) to Kansas, why not swing on Baskin. Though not with this team, Malone and Baskin probably had big leadership roles with their previous teams. Leadership is leadership it can carry over. Jakimovski is a proven DI forward who can probably contribute more than he did at WSU. I think he's pretty good. Big jumps usually take place from Freshmen to Sophomore campaigns. Diop and Dang should be improved. Lots of people on this site are extremely down on the guard play at CU. When different expectations and playing time are put on people many times they develop and rise to the occasion. More is being asked of Hammond, Ruffin, Smith, etc. My bet is they step up and meet the challenge and have solid, if not good years. I never said elite 8 any where, but I think they have an above .500 season and make it to post season somewhere.
 
Considering the returning production and no additions from million dollar transfers or McD AAs and then comparing that to the rest of the Big 12, I'd pick CU last too. But with how familiar as I am with how Tad always seems to find a way when he's had a squad that lacks firepower, I'm confident we'll be better than expected.
 
Considering the returning production and no additions from million dollar transfers or McD AAs and then comparing that to the rest of the Big 12, I'd pick CU last too. But with how familiar as I am with how Tad always seems to find a way when he's had a squad that lacks firepower, I'm confident we'll be better than expected.
I'm confident we'll be close in a lot of games. The W/L is going to come down to how clutch the three transfers are, and if anyone proves to be a good lead guard.
 
I'm truly not much of a gambler, but we could do a Trading Places wager. If you're old enough to know what that is. If not you'll have to sit through an Eddie Murphy movie to find out.
I know it. In fact, I was Director of Cultural Activities at the Haile Selassie Pavilion. Do you remember the pavilion? We had big fun there.
 

Fun article. Battey helping Dak with his jumpshot and specifically his follow through. Battey was really speaking glowingly of Dak's ability. Sounds like Tad's really challenging him.
says he is also helping him with his handles and dribble drive game

 
This might be the most tad ball year of all time.

I could definitely see playing an average game in the 60s to keep opponents within range and just try to get more stops than they do the final 10 minutes.
Julian had a TORate of 23.0. Ruffin was 28.1. For this to work we’re going to need stability and calmness at PG.

Broken record and all but so much of this comes down to PG play.
 
Julian had a TORate of 23.0. Ruffin was 28.1. For this to work we’re going to need stability and calmness at PG.

Broken record and all but so much of this comes down to PG play.
Reaction GIF by MOODMAN
 
Julian had a TORate of 23.0. Ruffin was 28.1. For this to work we’re going to need stability and calmness at PG.

Broken record and all but so much of this comes down to PG play.
If they don't figure it out, I can't imagine how bad of a bloodbath it's going be against that swarming Houston defense. Could be down by 20 in the first 8 minutes against them. And it's not like no one else in the Big 12 brings a lot of ball pressure. I hope Tad's got them working against overplays and constant fouling/ physicality to get into the offense, because if we can't handle that it will be a very long season.
 
If they don't figure it out, I can't imagine how bad of a bloodbath it's going be against that swarming Houston defense. Could be down by 20 in the first 8 minutes against them. And it's not like no one else in the Big 12 brings a lot of ball pressure. I hope Tad's got them working against overplays and constant fouling/ physicality to get into the offense, because if we can't handle that it will be a very long season.
They need to be practicing five on seven for a bit.
 
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