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Bubble Watch - Saturday 3/12

Buffnik said:
NoCo is looking pretty good. Down 20-19 at 6:36.

Oregon up 5 on Stanford in the 1st half (RPI boost if they go on to win).

Marquette up 11-8 on West Virginia at the 15 minute mark. Go Mountaineers!
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Let me try this again - Marquette is already in.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Let me try this again - Marquette is already in.
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We shall see. 19-14 with an RPI that drops to around 70 isn't that impressive. I realize it's a down year for bubble teams, but come on. I really don't care that they lost to a lot of good teams. What does that prove? And if they lose tonight (down 7 at half), then they've lost 3 of their last 4... all against unranked teams.
 
Buffnik said:
We shall see. 19-14 with an RPI that drops to around 70 isn't that impressive. I realize it's a down year for bubble teams, but come on. I really don't care that they lost to a lot of good teams. What does that prove? And if they lose tonight (down 7 at half), then they've lost 3 of their last 4... all against unranked teams.
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And an SOS in the 30's. Wins over ND, Cuse, WV, and at UConn. Every loss is very excusable. They're in.
 
CarolinaBuff said:
Let me try this again - Marquette is already in.
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Not all just about getting in....some of these teams like marquette or nova or saint mary's may make the field but land in the last 4 for the play in games...certainly i'd be happy to make the field but to avoid one of the play in games would be even better
 
Rraalph 3000 said:
Not all just about getting in....some of these teams like marquette or nova or saint mary's may make the field but land in the last 4 for the play in games...certainly i'd be happy to make the field but to avoid one of the play in games would be even better
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Definitely. I'd love for us to be able to avoid one of the play-in, or "first round" games. (sorry, I don't consider it a real "first round" despite what the NCAA wants to call it)
 
Carolina - We've got to make a rep bet now. I'll expect some rep if they don't get in. I'll hit you if they lose tonight and are still in the field. Deal?
 
Buffnik said:
Carolina - We've got to make a rep bet now. I'll expect some rep if they don't get in. I'll hit you if they lose tonight and are still in the field. Deal?
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"First Four" is the technical name, I believe. Let's beat KSU and avoid it...I don't want to ****ing play Michigan State in front of a partisan crowd in Dayton, or something along those lines
 
CU won't get one of the play in games, Those will be the minor conference champs and at-large from mid-majors. Not saying it is right or wrong, just how they will do it.
 
MtnBuff said:
CU won't get one of the play in games, Those will be the minor conference champs and at-large from mid-majors. Not saying it is right or wrong, just how they will do it.
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That is not what they are projecting. Four teams are mid majors getting 16 seeds and the other four are bcs teams getting an 11 or 12 seed.
 
Does Michigan state play at home tomorrow? What a p***y conference the big ten is.
 
MtnBuff said:
CU won't get one of the play in games, Those will be the minor conference champs and at-large from mid-majors. Not saying it is right or wrong, just how they will do it.
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These "First Four" games have to be at-large teams. I think CU and other schools like VT are prime candidates for it, unless we win tomorrow
 
tante said:
Does Michigan state play at home tomorrow? What a p***y conference the big ten is.
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Play Iowa in Indianapolis. If CU were to play Mich. St or Michigan in Dayton it would be a very partisan crowd. Their fans would fill that place
 
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By the way I know that this will break everyones heart but there was some talk about kNU getting in, they played themselves out as well.

UNC will have a hard time keeping themselves up next year minus their seniors but the tourney bid should really help them in recruiting.
 
I see that Lunardi has us playing in Denver (if we win the play-in game). Anyone know how he comes up with his predictions of where teams play? It changes daily so their must be a science behind it.
 
Lunardi updated his bracket just now, but the Buffs didn't move despite the win today. Still the next to last team in the field ahead of Georgia and below Virginia Tech. I knew the ISU game was more about "not losing" than the benefits a win would bring, but it would've been nice to bump up a couple spots in case we lose to KSU. Digger and Hubert both think the ISU win means the Buffs are in, but Lunardi is a little more unsure of that. A win against KSU would most definitely get the Buffs out of the "First Four" round - that would be pretty sweet.

In terms of other bubble teams, tomorrow is a huge day:
Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech: GT is bad, but they've shown flashes (beat UNC by 20).
Boston College/Wake: Hahaha, I'm just kidding. No chance in hell WF does us a favor (or comes within 20)
USC/Cal: Two bubble teams. USC has come on very strong (2nd team out). Cal in "Next Four Out". Want Cal
Michigan State/Iowa: Izzo or not, they couldn't let MSU in with a loss at 17-14, could they??
Penn State/Indiana: Will be a partisan crowd in Indianapolis. Can IU knock PSU off bubble and give RPI help?
Wazzu/Washington: Wazzu 4th team out. UW *almost* a bubble team in their own right w/ a loss, but we want UW.
UTEP/Marshall and Memphis/Southern Miss: Want Memphis and UTEP to lose, and both could.
Georgia/Auburn: War Eagle. Dawgs are last team in right now.

ACC, Big 10 and SEC are just starting tomorrow, and many of the bubble teams are playing some very weak teams from their conferences, but Wazzu/UW and Cal/USC are huge. If CU were to lose and USC 18-13 (10-8) were to beat Cal (65 RPI) and Wazzu were to beat UDub (46 RPI), those teams would edge close to the Buffs. USC has a decent amount of good wins on its resume (Texas, UCLA, Arizona, UDub, Wazzu) but some awful losses (TCU, Rider, Bradley, Oregon State, Oregon(2x)). CU's resume is more impressive than that for sure, those losses are terrible, but they've won 5/6. Wazzu 19-11 (9-9) doesn't have much in the way of good wins (Gonzaga, UDub, USC, Baylor) and some bad losses (Arizona St, Oregon, Stanford) but beating UDub would give them another crucial top 50 win.
 
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CVilleBuff said:
These "First Four" games have to be at-large teams. I think CU and other schools like VT are prime candidates for it, unless we win tomorrow
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The four first round games Dayton will involve 2 games involving the last 4 at-large teams, and the other 2 games will involve the weakest 4 auto bids. If you look at Lunardi's bracketology you can see this.

So as a potential at-large team, all you need to do is avoid being one of the last 4 in, then you won't have to play in Dayton.
 
Buffnik said:
Carolina - We've got to make a rep bet now. I'll expect some rep if they don't get in. I'll hit you if they lose tonight and are still in the field. Deal?
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Well it's a moot point now that they won last night but yea I definitely would've take you up on that.
 
Personally, I think the Buffs need a win today or they are out. And I think that is pretty fair. You don't want my prediction, but here it is anyway. Buffs lose by double digits. :(
 
I maintain that this CU team doesn't belong in the NCAA tournament. They have a potential NBA lottery pick, in Burks, but that's about it. Losing at ISU, at OU, etc. shows me they're not NCAA tournament material. Obviously, I won't be upset if they make the tournament, but at the same time I will not be disappointed at all if they do not.

This team might do pretty well in the NIT - which would probably benefit them in the long run.
 
Lt.Col.FrankSlade said:
I maintain that this CU team doesn't belong in the NCAA tournament. They have a potential NBA lottery pick, in Burks, but that's about it. Losing at ISU, at OU, etc. shows me they're not NCAA tournament material. Obviously, I won't be upset if they make the tournament, but at the same time I will not be disappointed at all if they do not.

This team might do pretty well in the NIT - which would probably benefit them in the long run.
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Most years I'd agree with you. But look at the resumes of the other "First 4 In" teams or the 8 teams in the "First 4 Out" and "Next 4 Out". This year, it's not a matter of the most impressive resume. It's more a matter of the least bad. At least CU has beat some really good teams and doesn't have a losing conference record.
 
Lt.Col.FrankSlade said:
I maintain that this CU team doesn't belong in the NCAA tournament. They have a potential NBA lottery pick, in Burks, but that's about it. Losing at ISU, at OU, etc. shows me they're not NCAA tournament material. Obviously, I won't be upset if they make the tournament, but at the same time I will not be disappointed at all if they do not.

This team might do pretty well in the NIT - which would probably benefit them in the long run.
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Slade go back to pulling for us to join the mountain west.

We know that you think, its pretty much what ever the lowest expectation is for our team. I dont know if you hate getting your hopes up only to have them dashed, if you talk things down, and prepare for the worst so you can on be surprised or what your deal is, but it gets tiresome. LAst time we had a player of this caliber we made the tourney and made the second round, its basket ball one guy can make a team. Hell we rode David Harrison to the dance.

As for this year the talk will continue. Most of the board and a significant number of sports pundits disagree with your view about the team. Before the games yesterday espn ran an entire segment on the big-12 focusing on baylor, NU, and CU; comparing how similar our resumes were and comparing what we each brought to the table. The consensus was one of us would get in; they lost, we won, so the talk continues.
 
Like I said - it's a WIN - WIN situation right now.

If the Buffs get into the NCAA tournament - great. Certainly something to hang their hat on and sell to recruits.

If they don't - they are all-but guaranteed to host games in the NIT, which would certainly be a financial help to CU.

I also think the Buffs could win a couple games in the NIT (assuming they get to host them) whereas, I have my doubts that CU will win a "play-in" game in the NCAA tournament.
 
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