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Buffs Defense May Become The Unsung Hero
- Thread starter InTheBuff
- Start date
Huh, I'm surprised 2010 is on there. That was a miserable season.
Here we go, 10 games in. I'm expecting things to be pretty static at this point. We've got some injuries and have stalled out on further improvement. Utah had their best offensive game in a while against us as well.
Links: NCAA. BCF. Team Rankings.
PPG: 35th - another small drop. It's now a trend. 20.9 ppg
PPP: 25th- small drop
PPD: 34 - small improvement.
YPG: 59th - 10 spot improvement.
YPP: 23d - I've been screwing this one up. Wow! This is good.
YPRush: 3.7 improved again. up to 29th from 41st. Trend improving to. Now 2.9 over last 3 from 3.5
Efficiency Stuff:
Overall Defense (FEI): 22d - 6 spot jump. Interesting - they still like our D better than our O(31st, but creeping up)
Overall Defense (SP+): 45th - 8 spot jump.
Team Passing Defensive Efficiency: 57th - another decent bump here
Stop Rate: still 16th
Sacks: 6th! Getting into elite category here.
TFL: 11th - another bump up. 7.3 per game.
Red Zone D: 12th. 1 spot drop. jump. another big red zone stuff helps. teams score 73% of the time in the red zone against us.
Turnovers Gained: 10th - huge jump from 29th. Despite missing out on 2 fumbles!
3d Down D: 39th - one spot worse
Thoughts: I was a bit wrong here. Either we are still getting better or our new level is just really good in a lot of ways. We continue to improve in most efficiency metrics as we trend toward a consensus top 25 defense. SP+ is a big hold out but even that system is moving us up. The team is elite in creating turnovers, which makes sense since they create top 15 havoc in the backfield. We continue to pay for that by being an average pass defense when the ball is thrown. Also elite in red zone stops.
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Found this chart online. Have seen it basically everywhere that Colorado plays in a glorified G5 conference (to discredit Trav, to discredit our record, etc) but we have the lowest delta between the best and worst teams we’ve played of anyone in the top 25 based on Sagarin. Essentially week in and week out a real opponent. Lots of bad faith arguments about Travis coming from Boise St fans when they play 9 teams far worse than anyone on our schedule.
Sagarin loves them some B12. Wow.
GRM
I'm a ****ty troll
IMO, this is a better indicator than ESPN's FPI, which as of this week has USC (#18, 5-5 total joke), South Carolina, Louisville, and LSU ahead of CU (#20). Tulane as 2 quality losses, but their remaining schedule is not that great.
This is FPI's criteria: https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/122612/an-inside-look-at-college-fpi. I think that they need to update their algorithm given the TP; less tenured coaches flashing early, returning starters, and historical weighting. I can see a heavy skew to the SEC, but Big 10 not so much, but still skewed to them.
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Loves the B12 or recognizes what I think most of us said at the start of the season. There are lots of good to pretty good teams, only a handful of truly ****ty teams, and no elite teams.
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It's a big outlier from other systems. I do not know why though
Fwiw I believe SP+ heavily favors/utilizes rolling 4 year recruiting right? That probably makes it still very skeptical of us - rightfully so, not complaining! Just think that one in particular may be slightly down on us due to that.
GRM
I'm a ****ty troll
I think SP+ like FPI uses "rolling" past performance metrics too. CUs is terrible. Also, the way the B12 conference has played out (preseason picks 14-16, 1,2,3; preseason favorites except Houston take up 5 spots in the B-12 cellar) has hurt #1-3 in the conference. For these formulated projections, I think beating Utah, OSU, KU and Zona (they are a terrible team) actually can give CU bigger or same bump than beating the new kids on the block, who are having a good seasons. Their rolling past records and using preseason rankings has rendered the accurate B12 models upside down.
On recruiting, I think both use a rolling 4-5 year recruiting, however that is skewed towards HS recruits, as they have yet not figured out how to properly factor in the transfer portal--unless you get TP Blue-Chips (i.e. Ole Miss D-Line guys).
For CU either getting a bye, hosting a game, or making the playoff, for the CFP committee, I still think the "eye test" and other factors will come into play.
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It seemed like he knew what he was talking about. I think I'd be ok with it if Prime wanted to bring him on as a defensive analyst next season.
Welp.
This weeks update will not be a fun
Eh, the defense didn't get off the field one time and didn't generate a single turnover. It was probably the worst defensive game from start to finish of the Prime era and it came at the most crucial time. The offense kind of did their thing and probably would have scored another TD if the defense could have gotten one or two stops.
osu is going to try hard to run the ball. Their pass is struggling and they do have good backs. Buff D better come ready to play. Once again a team playing for their coaches future possibly / + we are their superbowl / save face on a ****ty season.
Can not take lightly
Can not take lightly
KU could have scored 12 more points (TDs vs Field Goals) if they would have just kept pounding the ball when they got into the redzone instead of throwing it.
FWIW, OSU's Big 12 defensive ranks:
Total Defense - 16th
Pass Defense - 15th
Rush Defense - 16th
Points Allowed - 16th
Their offense is statistically similar to CU's actually
If CU plays like they have in pretty much every game outside of KU, they should win comfortably
11 games in. Well, we all know what happened last week. Here we go.
Links: NCAA. BCF. Team Rankings.
PPG: 44th Big drop. Trend is now 4 games long and accelerating. 22.5 ppg
PPP: 33d - decent drop out of 25th
PPD: not yet published
YPG: 74th - huge drop.
YPP: 37th - huge drop. Trend was very positive until Kansas.
YPRush: 51st - huge drop. up to 4.0 per rush.
Efficiency Stuff:
Overall Defense (FEI): not yet published.
Overall Defense (SP+): 51st - 6 points worse.
Team Passing Defensive Efficiency:: 64th- big drop for this late in season
Stop Rate: not yet published. It's gonna be wayyyy worse
Sacks: 9th - somehow still in the top 10. Crazy we got a sack. Why were they passing?
TFL: 14th - Small drop.
Red Zone D: 14th. only 2 spot drop somehow
Turnovers Gained: 14th - small drop
3d Down D: 62d - HUGE fall from 39th. Giving up nearly 65% of 3d downs will do that.
Overall: that one game dropped this team's defensive outlook to mediocre where it matters (points). All the efficiency numbers so far point to mediocre as well. Back to being situationally good. If we aren't generating turnovers, this defense aint good on a per play basis.
Stepping outside the #s, what that game showed me is that the Buffs were athletically outmatched at at least 1 LB spot, both safety spots (how many times was CSC in the right spot and just couldn't bring Neal down?), and often on the DL as well. It didn't help that Stoudtmire had his worst game as a buff early. Plus, Livingston got his lunch eaten on key plays, which happens when they can run the ball at 6+ yards a play.
This D needs more talent to handle teams with plus athletes. What would happen against a true top 10 offense would be UGLY.
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False!
No rebuttal to that
The biggest issue with the defense was tackling. It was pathetic.
#1 pick
Well-Known Member
It's mainly up the middle all around as stated. While the safeties are extremely instinctive. They aren't the most athletic. Cam is basically a Budda Baker clone and you gotta pair him with a rangy safety.
Shilo is your typical NFL high football IQ and last man protecting the defense with terrific feel/length and those guys need safeties next to them who are rangy as well and have tremendous coverage skills. Ultimately, while Cam and Shilo have worked together, they aren't a perfect pairing. I haven't seen much in quality depth outside of Stoutmire as a SS. None of our FS options really look good. We moved CSC to FS when Shilo got hurt. Riley just isn't ready for either SS or FS yet with the level of responsibility we need. 23 has by far the most potential of our safeties as I can see him being day 2 but instinctively, he has clear work to do which is the norm for a true Soph.
The LBs we have don't have great coverage skills at all. As much as I like NHG, he's a run stopping thumper who can hit you hard or miss the tackle altogether. While Bentley is a sure tackles, Bentley cover skills is why it's like an one down LB and special teamer at best throughout his potential NFL journey. Nothing is wrong with that. Just having a NFL career is amazing. Both are tremendously instinctive.
As great as Chidozie is, a 5'10 285 run stopping, gap plugging DT isn't worth more than a day 3 flyer even though he's special at it. He's has the instincts and he's a good football player. He will be in the NFL and that matters.
McNeil has the most potential of any of our DTs. Definitely looking like a potential Day 2 guy. Other than him, none of the other DTs really have much NFL potential outside of Cokes who is truly someone we needed against Kansas as he can also set the edge and play Edge as well as DT which is why he probably has Day 3 potential because versatility is needed by most NFL teams including us. Maybe him and a healthy Hodge could have gotten us 2-3 stops at Kansas and that would have been the difference in a win or loss even with the refs foolishness.
The EDGE rushers we got are athletic but none of them are Day 1 or Day 2 athletic. All are well coached. I can see every single one playing on Sundays, most as potential early day 3 guys. I don't see an elite Edge on this roster this year but no doubt, this is by FAR the best position group on defense by far. The only better than our boundary corners in Hood, Hunter, and Mckinney. Three potential 1st rounders at CB, Hunter is top 2 with Will Johnson in his class.
As for slot CBs, Hodge is an early day 3 guy. I think he will boom up the charts where he's current UDFA once the coaches start watching the film. He's gonna be CU big mover from where he is now to where he is when he's drafted. We have no depth here. We need to grab at least two slot corners. Alex Graham has serious upside in the slot as well if we can keep his commitment.
As you stated, the speed in the middle is an issue. I don't believe we would fair well playing SEC teams. Then again, we already knew that.
o_robbie
I don't think before I post
A fringe NFL player at almost all spots of the defense minus Hunter, McKinney is a massive upgrade to what we've had in the past. I still think Hodge is exposed by speed WR's and won't be in the NFL but he is another fringe guy.
“High football IQ”
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