Nevada is not good this year.
Neither is UW...
Neither is UW...
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Colorado RPI Watch
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
Would love to have Udub in Boulder this year
...as would most CU fans.
The game is a toss up as of now.
UW has no offense and near zero bench production, very unusual for a Romar squad. UW is a head-scratcher right now.
Suggs and Kemp Jr. returned tonight and yet they still started the first half with 20% FG. That won't win much against anybody...
Unfortunately, the Pac is still down. There is not enough OOC victories to get more than 2-3 teams at most to the dance. UW is staying home this year again unless they win the conference tourney.
I think the Pac will send AZ, UCLA and CU potentially. I don't see more than 3 teams going to the dance from the Pac.
Yikes:wow:
I hope we get 4.
I just don't see it. With less than a month we need several more quality OOC wins. It doesn't matter who beats up who in conference if we choke away December again...
We need Cal to win at home against UNLV on Sunday. You're absolutely right about quality OOC wins.
Well, we´re done and pretty much did our part in Charleston, but our remaining 3 OOC games won´t turn anyone´s head, I guess.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
I'll discuss Oregon, UCLA, Cal and Stanford below:
With Oregon, they're going to be entering league play at 12-1. Overall their OOC is far easier than CU's, but they have played two very quality teams. Their one loss is to a Cincinnati squad that is on the verge of cracking the top 10. They also have a very solid win on the road against a top 25 UNLV team. They're going to need to really take care of business in conference play, but all indications are that they're going to do that. The Ducks under Altman are exceptionally successful on the road, and that's obviously a huge thing to have going for you in conference play.
It's easy to scoff at UCLA at this point, but they have a few things going for them. They've played some solid OOC teams, and still have #12 Mizzou and a halfway decent Long Beach State squad remaining. Yeah, they've lost to the good teams they've played (Georgetown and San Diego State) but we all know how RPI loves when you play strong teams, even if you lose. And, also, they're UCLA. Names matter. If, hypothetically, UCLA is on the bubble and a remaining spot is between the Bruins, and say, Miami (FL), with both teams having near identical resumes...i'll solve the mystery for you: UCLA will be selected. Lastly, UCLA is simply too talented, even taking their issues into account, not to rack up a solid record in conference play over 18 games in another suspect year for the Pac-12, IMO.
Cal's next two games are absolutely massive. Like, make or break the season games. They face UNLV and Creighton, both in Berkeley. With the Pac-12 being suspect, Cal obviously needs to win at least one of those to be remotely in the picture, but I think they may have to win both if they want to be considered legitimate contenders for the NCAA Tournament. I know it sounds harsh to say they need to win both, but Cal's best win right now is against a Georgia Tech team that is 10th best in the ACC. Aside from that, it is entirely cupcakes. Of course it's all extremely speculative this time of the year, but Oregon under Altman has a knack for winning road games that Cal isn't capable of. This is a golden chance for Cal: two top 25 teams on your home court. Beat them, and all of a sudden you're in decent shape heading into conference play.
Stanford already has their backs against the wall for any hope of making the Dance. They've faced two excellent teams in Mizzou and Minnesota, but lost both. They also have a home loss to Belmont that won't do them any favors (Belmont isn't bad, but it's not the type of game you can lose at home). They still face NC State and Northwestern in OOC play so the chance for quality OOC wins is there, but the problem is both of those are on the road. So, basically, Stanford is in extreme danger of heading into league play without a real quality win (they do have a halfway decent win over Northern Iowa, but UNI is likely middle of the pack MVC). That's a doomsday situation in a weak Pac-12.
I think it's quite possible we have a conference tournament with as many as 3 teams on the "bubble" in some way, shape or form. Assuming Arizona hangs around the top 10-15, they are going to be facing some desperate teams starved for a big win knowing that defeating Arizona is their only chance to really turn some heads.
With Oregon, they're going to be entering league play at 12-1. Overall their OOC is far easier than CU's, but they have played two very quality teams. Their one loss is to a Cincinnati squad that is on the verge of cracking the top 10. They also have a very solid win on the road against a top 25 UNLV team. They're going to need to really take care of business in conference play, but all indications are that they're going to do that. The Ducks under Altman are exceptionally successful on the road, and that's obviously a huge thing to have going for you in conference play.
It's easy to scoff at UCLA at this point, but they have a few things going for them. They've played some solid OOC teams, and still have #12 Mizzou and a halfway decent Long Beach State squad remaining. Yeah, they've lost to the good teams they've played (Georgetown and San Diego State) but we all know how RPI loves when you play strong teams, even if you lose. And, also, they're UCLA. Names matter. If, hypothetically, UCLA is on the bubble and a remaining spot is between the Bruins, and say, Miami (FL), with both teams having near identical resumes...i'll solve the mystery for you: UCLA will be selected. Lastly, UCLA is simply too talented, even taking their issues into account, not to rack up a solid record in conference play over 18 games in another suspect year for the Pac-12, IMO.
Cal's next two games are absolutely massive. Like, make or break the season games. They face UNLV and Creighton, both in Berkeley. With the Pac-12 being suspect, Cal obviously needs to win at least one of those to be remotely in the picture, but I think they may have to win both if they want to be considered legitimate contenders for the NCAA Tournament. I know it sounds harsh to say they need to win both, but Cal's best win right now is against a Georgia Tech team that is 10th best in the ACC. Aside from that, it is entirely cupcakes. Of course it's all extremely speculative this time of the year, but Oregon under Altman has a knack for winning road games that Cal isn't capable of. This is a golden chance for Cal: two top 25 teams on your home court. Beat them, and all of a sudden you're in decent shape heading into conference play.
Stanford already has their backs against the wall for any hope of making the Dance. They've faced two excellent teams in Mizzou and Minnesota, but lost both. They also have a home loss to Belmont that won't do them any favors (Belmont isn't bad, but it's not the type of game you can lose at home). They still face NC State and Northwestern in OOC play so the chance for quality OOC wins is there, but the problem is both of those are on the road. So, basically, Stanford is in extreme danger of heading into league play without a real quality win (they do have a halfway decent win over Northern Iowa, but UNI is likely middle of the pack MVC). That's a doomsday situation in a weak Pac-12.
I think it's quite possible we have a conference tournament with as many as 3 teams on the "bubble" in some way, shape or form. Assuming Arizona hangs around the top 10-15, they are going to be facing some desperate teams starved for a big win knowing that defeating Arizona is their only chance to really turn some heads.
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Proving that their basketball team views the CU game in the same way as their football team does.
Washington State with a 59-50 home win against Fresno State today.
FSU really slows things down and keeps it low scoring. Buffs better take care of the ball and move on offense or that could be a rough night despite our significant talent advantage.
In other news, Cal let #21 UNLV go on a decent run to end the 1st half. UNLV leads 45-38. Cal really needs this win.
FSU really slows things down and keeps it low scoring. Buffs better take care of the ball and move on offense or that could be a rough night despite our significant talent advantage.
In other news, Cal let #21 UNLV go on a decent run to end the 1st half. UNLV leads 45-38. Cal really needs this win.
This Fresno road game is an absolute must win for Colorado.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
No one has scored 70 on Fresno this year, and most teams have been held in the 50s. They held UC-Riverside to 30.
Cal needs to beat UNLV (and probably Creighton as well). They lack any decent OOC wins.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
A couple things:
It's not even worth reading much into the Fresno State/Washington State score since Fresno State was on the road in Pullman. We already know Fresno isn't a particularly good team, but that's exactly what makes this game such a land mine. Fresno State isn't very good, yet they're effective enough at their style of slowing games down and making them ugly that they're going to be a challenge on their home court. To the average outsider, CU wins and it's "So what? You beat Fresno, big deal..." lose and it's "CU lost to Fresno? The Buffs were overrated and are falling apart already". Unlike Wyoming (where we've gotten some luck with them being much better than expected), Fresno State is NOT a loss we want on our resume. It has the potential to damage us in March. The reality is that the Buffs need to get their act together on the road. They need to use this as a golden opportunity to figure out how to win road games. Figure out how to grind out a win when you're not getting some calls, figure out how to create your own momentum without 11,750 people urging you on. If the Buffs want to start becoming an NCAA Tournament regular, you have to figure out how to win road games against mid-table teams. This is a great place to start. Fresno isn't absolutely horrendous like Utah, USC and ASU last year (road games we won), but they're certainly not a good team, either. It's road games against mid-tier teams that you have to start winning with some consistency if you want to become a Big Dance regular. This is an excellent stepping stone for the Buffs. They need to be up for this challenge. RealTimeRPI is giving CU a 52.1% chance at the moment.
What an absolutely crushing loss for Cal against UNLV. As I mentioned last night, this two game stretch for Cal with UNLV and Creighton both visiting Berkeley is a make or break the season type stretch. Cal desperately needs at least one marquee win (their best win is Georgia Tech, a team that will finish ~10th in the ACC). Heading into a weak Pac-12 with no real decent OOC wins is not a situation anyone wants to be in if they're trying to be legitimate contenders for the Dance. Their next game, Creighton, is a must win. I wish them luck, this an entire conference starved for decent OOC wins.
It's not even worth reading much into the Fresno State/Washington State score since Fresno State was on the road in Pullman. We already know Fresno isn't a particularly good team, but that's exactly what makes this game such a land mine. Fresno State isn't very good, yet they're effective enough at their style of slowing games down and making them ugly that they're going to be a challenge on their home court. To the average outsider, CU wins and it's "So what? You beat Fresno, big deal..." lose and it's "CU lost to Fresno? The Buffs were overrated and are falling apart already". Unlike Wyoming (where we've gotten some luck with them being much better than expected), Fresno State is NOT a loss we want on our resume. It has the potential to damage us in March. The reality is that the Buffs need to get their act together on the road. They need to use this as a golden opportunity to figure out how to win road games. Figure out how to grind out a win when you're not getting some calls, figure out how to create your own momentum without 11,750 people urging you on. If the Buffs want to start becoming an NCAA Tournament regular, you have to figure out how to win road games against mid-table teams. This is a great place to start. Fresno isn't absolutely horrendous like Utah, USC and ASU last year (road games we won), but they're certainly not a good team, either. It's road games against mid-tier teams that you have to start winning with some consistency if you want to become a Big Dance regular. This is an excellent stepping stone for the Buffs. They need to be up for this challenge. RealTimeRPI is giving CU a 52.1% chance at the moment.
What an absolutely crushing loss for Cal against UNLV. As I mentioned last night, this two game stretch for Cal with UNLV and Creighton both visiting Berkeley is a make or break the season type stretch. Cal desperately needs at least one marquee win (their best win is Georgia Tech, a team that will finish ~10th in the ACC). Heading into a weak Pac-12 with no real decent OOC wins is not a situation anyone wants to be in if they're trying to be legitimate contenders for the Dance. Their next game, Creighton, is a must win. I wish them luck, this an entire conference starved for decent OOC wins.
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In that Cal game, Moser went out with a dislocated elbow after playing only 5 minutes, and the bears still couldn't take advantage. Write-up on the UNLV AD's site quoted their coach as saying Moser could be out for a while. Be interesting to see is that provides an opening for the Rams and Pokes to get in behind the UNM and SDSU in the standings once conference play gets rolling.
I know I am a broken record, but tonights game at Fresno is absolutely huge. Colorado needs true road wins on their resume. If they lose, it is simply no different than any other year where they are an automatic W at home and an automatic L on the road. This needs to change to truly be considered a tournament team.
Remaining non-conference schedule:
@Fresno State (tonight) - #201 RPI 4-4
Northern Arizona (12-21) - #146 RPI 3-5
Hartford (12-29) - #124 RPI 5-4
We need opponents to get within the Top 100 so it goes down as a "Quality Win" for the selection committee. And for our own RPI score, we just need them to get wins.
Hartford's playing at Niagara right now. They should win that and road wins count for a lot. That's a big game for the Buffs.
Also, Arizona State is somehow at #33 right now. They host DePaul tonight. Getting a win tonight is absolutely essential for them to maintain status as a quality RPI team heading into Pac-12 play.
That's it tonight other than Baylor damn well better get a win against 1-8 Lamar at home and Oregon State damn well better get a win at 1-4 Portland State.
@Fresno State (tonight) - #201 RPI 4-4
Northern Arizona (12-21) - #146 RPI 3-5
Hartford (12-29) - #124 RPI 5-4
We need opponents to get within the Top 100 so it goes down as a "Quality Win" for the selection committee. And for our own RPI score, we just need them to get wins.
Hartford's playing at Niagara right now. They should win that and road wins count for a lot. That's a big game for the Buffs.
Also, Arizona State is somehow at #33 right now. They host DePaul tonight. Getting a win tonight is absolutely essential for them to maintain status as a quality RPI team heading into Pac-12 play.
That's it tonight other than Baylor damn well better get a win against 1-8 Lamar at home and Oregon State damn well better get a win at 1-4 Portland State.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
That 8-1 record for Arizona State was completely misleading. They're improved, but still a bottom third Pac-12 team. To put it in perspective, this is a mediocre at best DePaul team that has lost to Gardner-Webb by 12.
Not even close. Three minutes left on Pac-12 network they are losing 78-57.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Oregon State (5-2) is in trouble early at Portland State (1-4)
Looks like the Beavs are going to get it done. That was a loss the conference couldn't have afforded.
Not much going on the next 2 days. Just have to avoid major upsets.
Saturday's going to be huge, though, with Arizona hosting #5 Florida and Cal hosting #16 Creighton.
Not much going on the next 2 days. Just have to avoid major upsets.
Saturday's going to be huge, though, with Arizona hosting #5 Florida and Cal hosting #16 Creighton.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Oregon State is a team to keep an eye on. They're totally off the radar right now, but they are the 7th team in the Pac-12 right now IMO, and if they can get going a bit and hold home court (something they couldn't do last season) they can potentially crack the top half of the conference standings.
Arizona State got exposed today. Thanks to their fluffy OOC, they're still 8-2, but all is not what it seems.
Cal is playing for their lives against Creighton on Saturday in Berkeley. They badly need a "marquee" OOC win, we'll see how they respond coming off the heartbreaking 1 point home loss to UNLV.
Arizona State got exposed today. Thanks to their fluffy OOC, they're still 8-2, but all is not what it seems.
Cal is playing for their lives against Creighton on Saturday in Berkeley. They badly need a "marquee" OOC win, we'll see how they respond coming off the heartbreaking 1 point home loss to UNLV.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Wazzu won a home game against winless Jackson State
UDub won at Seattle. Way to pad the RPI with a "road" victory.
Must have been quite a hostile road crowd playing SeattleU in KeyArena with 90% of the 6,000 in attendance being UDub fans. The sad thing is I wouldn't have been overly shocked if they lost. They've got 3 horrible cupcakes, and 1 near guaranteed loss at UConn remaining on their schedule, so the Huskies will be heading into conference play at 8-5. I've got them ~8th in the Pac-12.
Wazzu won a home game against winless Jackson State
UDub won at Seattle. Way to pad the RPI with a "road" victory.
When can we get DU on the schedule?