Needed that. CU no longer has the signature win for the PAC. Finally. (Still has 2 of the top 3 tho)
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Colorado RPI Watch
- Thread starter Buffnik
- Start date
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Fresno State loses at home to UC-Irvine, 58-51. Fresno State falls to 5-6.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Two huge chances at home to get a marquee win blown by Cal. I just don't buy Cal as an NCAA Tournament team at the moment after losing both of those. In all likelihood, Cal goes something like 10-8 in the Pac-12 with their best two wins on the season being home victories over, say, CU and Stanford. Is that NCAA Tournament worthy? I really don't think so.
I caught some of that game and UCR is really really ,how two teams could lose to them is amazing. I think they shot 19% with 1 assist and one of their threes was a bad pass that somehow made it in. I felt like they should have been playing the Benny Hill theme song during the game.
Murray State in a tough one at home today against a good Western Kentucky team. 48-47 with 12:10 to play.
Oregon State should win at home against Chicago State.
TX Southern lost at home to CS Fullerton. Now 1-9, they better go on a hell of a run in conference play or that win will be pretty useless for us.
Oregon State should win at home against Chicago State.
TX Southern lost at home to CS Fullerton. Now 1-9, they better go on a hell of a run in conference play or that win will be pretty useless for us.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Murray State won. Big win for them. That's a major rivalry, they're the two schools in that part of the state and Bowling Green and Murray aren't far from each other. (it's completely basketball mad area: my cousin lives there and as a kid his room was completely painted with detail to look like Rupp Arena). Murray State now 8-1
As for Texas Southern, they started like this last year and ended up winning their conference in the regular season. Life of a low level program OOC...countless road game after road game against power conference squads.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Congrats to Jim Boeheim for reaching 900. Whether or not you like the guy, that's downright impressive to be in the 900 club and kudos to him. Personally, I've always loved Boeheim's dedication to the 2-3 Zone.
Not much excitement involving CU opponents tonight, but:
CU's next opponent, Northern Arizona, improved to 4-5 by winning their first Big Sky game of the season, 87-80 over Montana State in Flagstaff. Northern Arizona still plays Montana on the 19th before facing our Buffs on the 21st, so the Buffs should be facing a rather gassed NAU squad. However, this is one team that will NOT be concerned about our altitude. For a team thought to be possibly one of the absolute worst in all of college basketball heading in the season, there's no doubt that NAU is better than expected, although we should roll these guys, especially with them coming in having played a couple games crunched together right before their trip to Boulder.
Baylor improved to 7-3 with a 73-57 win over USC-Upstate in Waco. Baylor closes their OOC slate with a home game against BYU, and then travels to Gonzaga. Huge games for them. In all likelihood, they beat BYU and lose @ Gonzaga, and thus enter conference play at 8-4. Disappointing for them considering they saw themselves a top 15 team, but they still have that road win at Kentucky (even though UK is down) in their back pocket, and they'll have numerous chances for quality wins in Big XII play. In the end, CU's win over Baylor will look impressive to the Selection Committee.
Colorado State improved to 7-2 with an 83-55 win over North Florida in Fort Collins. They still have 5 OOC games remaining, with 3 cupcakes and potentially competitive games against UTEP and St. Bonaventure. Still, those are at home and they should entire MWC play with an 12-2 record. This is a team that likely won't win many on the road in conference play, but they'll do enough at home to beat some quality teams, and in all likelihood will be in the Big Dance.
As for Tuesday's games:
There's a huge opportunity for the Pac-12 with Stanford (7-3) heading into Raleigh to take on #25 North Carolina State (7-2). Stanford is desperately searching for that marquee OOC win. So far, their best win is Northern Iowa, which while solid, beating a presumed middle of the pack MVC team won't turn a ton of heads. A top 25 road win on Tobacco road would cement Stanford as a legit NCAA Tournament contender. They follow this up with a road game at Northwestern. Cardinal really, really really need to win one of these two road games. If they don't, they'll be in the same position as Cal: facing a major, major uphill climb to become a serious Big Dance threat and will be in dire need of multiple big wins in a Pac-12 that frankly doesn't have a ton to offer. We could definitely use a second top 25 team in the Pac, which CU would reclaim that.
#4 Arizona (8-0) takes on Oral Roberts in Tucson. This isn't the stellar ORU team of the last season or two. Avoid the post-UF win hangover and coast to victory.
#9 Kansas takes on a pretty decent Richmond squad (9-2). Richmond is a tough, quality A-10 squad that you better be ready for. That said, it's hard to see how KU doesn't put them away after 15-20 minutes if they come to play like they did against CU on
Not much excitement involving CU opponents tonight, but:
CU's next opponent, Northern Arizona, improved to 4-5 by winning their first Big Sky game of the season, 87-80 over Montana State in Flagstaff. Northern Arizona still plays Montana on the 19th before facing our Buffs on the 21st, so the Buffs should be facing a rather gassed NAU squad. However, this is one team that will NOT be concerned about our altitude. For a team thought to be possibly one of the absolute worst in all of college basketball heading in the season, there's no doubt that NAU is better than expected, although we should roll these guys, especially with them coming in having played a couple games crunched together right before their trip to Boulder.
Baylor improved to 7-3 with a 73-57 win over USC-Upstate in Waco. Baylor closes their OOC slate with a home game against BYU, and then travels to Gonzaga. Huge games for them. In all likelihood, they beat BYU and lose @ Gonzaga, and thus enter conference play at 8-4. Disappointing for them considering they saw themselves a top 15 team, but they still have that road win at Kentucky (even though UK is down) in their back pocket, and they'll have numerous chances for quality wins in Big XII play. In the end, CU's win over Baylor will look impressive to the Selection Committee.
Colorado State improved to 7-2 with an 83-55 win over North Florida in Fort Collins. They still have 5 OOC games remaining, with 3 cupcakes and potentially competitive games against UTEP and St. Bonaventure. Still, those are at home and they should entire MWC play with an 12-2 record. This is a team that likely won't win many on the road in conference play, but they'll do enough at home to beat some quality teams, and in all likelihood will be in the Big Dance.
As for Tuesday's games:
There's a huge opportunity for the Pac-12 with Stanford (7-3) heading into Raleigh to take on #25 North Carolina State (7-2). Stanford is desperately searching for that marquee OOC win. So far, their best win is Northern Iowa, which while solid, beating a presumed middle of the pack MVC team won't turn a ton of heads. A top 25 road win on Tobacco road would cement Stanford as a legit NCAA Tournament contender. They follow this up with a road game at Northwestern. Cardinal really, really really need to win one of these two road games. If they don't, they'll be in the same position as Cal: facing a major, major uphill climb to become a serious Big Dance threat and will be in dire need of multiple big wins in a Pac-12 that frankly doesn't have a ton to offer. We could definitely use a second top 25 team in the Pac, which CU would reclaim that.
#4 Arizona (8-0) takes on Oral Roberts in Tucson. This isn't the stellar ORU team of the last season or two. Avoid the post-UF win hangover and coast to victory.
#9 Kansas takes on a pretty decent Richmond squad (9-2). Richmond is a tough, quality A-10 squad that you better be ready for. That said, it's hard to see how KU doesn't put them away after 15-20 minutes if they come to play like they did against CU on
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Wofford's rolling Jacksonville 62-36 with 12 minutes to play.
TX-Southern is hanging tough at Kansas State. 34-37 with 18:30 to play. TXS seems to hang tough in ever game and then fail to close. They're 1-9 and could easily be 5-4.
On ESPN, Stanford just tipped off at NC State. This is an absolutely HUGE game for Furd and the Pac-12.
Other games:
Utah hosting a solid SMU team and has an early lead.
Zona got off to a good start early hosting Oral Roberts.
Wyoming started on an 8-0 run against DU.
Later, Cal hosts UCSB and UCLA hosts Long Beach State.
TX-Southern is hanging tough at Kansas State. 34-37 with 18:30 to play. TXS seems to hang tough in ever game and then fail to close. They're 1-9 and could easily be 5-4.
On ESPN, Stanford just tipped off at NC State. This is an absolutely HUGE game for Furd and the Pac-12.
Other games:
Utah hosting a solid SMU team and has an early lead.
Zona got off to a good start early hosting Oral Roberts.
Wyoming started on an 8-0 run against DU.
Later, Cal hosts UCSB and UCLA hosts Long Beach State.
BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
heh. I wonder if it's not too late to lay down a few $ on LBSu.
Stanford loses 79-88.
Utah beat SMU, Wyoming beat DU and Zona whipped Oral Roberts.
Pac-12 is much better than last year since the bottom isn't nearly as awful and there is actually a great team at the top with UA. But once again there are going to be few quality wins to come by in conference play and a lot of landmines of mediocre teams with bad RPIs that are good enough to beat a team on CU's level.
Utah beat SMU, Wyoming beat DU and Zona whipped Oral Roberts.
Pac-12 is much better than last year since the bottom isn't nearly as awful and there is actually a great team at the top with UA. But once again there are going to be few quality wins to come by in conference play and a lot of landmines of mediocre teams with bad RPIs that are good enough to beat a team on CU's level.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
...Which is exactly why Cal and Stanford are screwed. You can't head into Pac-12 play these days without a marquee OOC win or two, or else you are in deep deep ****. Best case scenario this is a 4 bid league.
Our Buffs HAVE to go out and beat the Wazzu's and Utah's of the league on the road. Road games at Utah, etc. aren't the guaranteed wins they were least year, as they're improved. However, these teams are still bad and losses would present an RPI nightmare that we don't want to fall into.
Weird for Utah to be playing SMU again tonight. They already played SMU on 11/28.
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btbuff
It's an inside joke
Those Utah games may have been wins last year but that was some of the worst basketball I can remember.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
the roadie at Arizona State was the worst, IMO. We ended up winning 63-49, but holy **** we played poorly
After Tuesday's games, here's the RPI outlook (updated RealTimeRPI):
Pac-12: #3
Conference Team Ranks:
#2 Colorado
#8 Arizona
#32 Oregon
#42 Cal
#70 Utah
#79 Arizona State
#85 Washington
#103 UCLA
#117 Stanford
#122 USC
#155 Oregon State
#182 Washington State
OOC Opponents Rank:
#7 Kansas (L)
#17 Murray State (W)
#40 Wyoming (L)
#41 CSU (W)
#64 Baylor (W)
#67 Dayton (W)
#146 Northern Arizona (12/21)
#158 Hartford (12/28)
#172 Air Force (W)
#205 Wofford (W)
#230 Fresno State (W)
#241 TX-Southern (W)
Basically, we need our Pac-12 mates to finish non-conference play strong. And we need our OOC opponents to have great records the rest of the way.
I fully expect CU to enter conference play at 10-2. Based on what I'm seeing with where the Pac-12 teams rank, we really need to see a 12-6 conference season (22-8 overall) for me to feel strongly confident of an at-large bid to the Dance this year. There's a ton of work to do. I'm very happy about our ridiculously inflated RPI right now, though. Look no further than Southern Miss last season to see what an inflated RPI can mean on Selection Sunday.
Pac-12: #3
Conference Team Ranks:
#2 Colorado
#8 Arizona
#32 Oregon
#42 Cal
#70 Utah
#79 Arizona State
#85 Washington
#103 UCLA
#117 Stanford
#122 USC
#155 Oregon State
#182 Washington State
OOC Opponents Rank:
#7 Kansas (L)
#17 Murray State (W)
#40 Wyoming (L)
#41 CSU (W)
#64 Baylor (W)
#67 Dayton (W)
#146 Northern Arizona (12/21)
#158 Hartford (12/28)
#172 Air Force (W)
#205 Wofford (W)
#230 Fresno State (W)
#241 TX-Southern (W)
Basically, we need our Pac-12 mates to finish non-conference play strong. And we need our OOC opponents to have great records the rest of the way.
I fully expect CU to enter conference play at 10-2. Based on what I'm seeing with where the Pac-12 teams rank, we really need to see a 12-6 conference season (22-8 overall) for me to feel strongly confident of an at-large bid to the Dance this year. There's a ton of work to do. I'm very happy about our ridiculously inflated RPI right now, though. Look no further than Southern Miss last season to see what an inflated RPI can mean on Selection Sunday.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Utah and ASU will obviously plummet soon. Hopefully Oregon State and USC can rise enough to prevent any potential CU losses to them from looking terrible. OOC, Dayton is headed towards bubbleland. I can see it coming for them already. Props to Northern Arizona, I like what they're doing in Flagstaff. Making progress.
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Tonight's games (12/19):
Dayton hosting a very good Illinois State team. Tied at 56 with 11+ minutes left.
Oregon is underway at UTEP (3-5, but probably better than that). Ducks trail 11-16 halfway through the 1st half.
Murray state is at a somewhat dangerous Arkansas State (6-3) team.
Northern Arizona hosts Montana (4-4).
CSU is hosting CS-Bakersfield (4-7).
Oregon state hosts Howard (3-8).
Dayton hosting a very good Illinois State team. Tied at 56 with 11+ minutes left.
Oregon is underway at UTEP (3-5, but probably better than that). Ducks trail 11-16 halfway through the 1st half.
Murray state is at a somewhat dangerous Arkansas State (6-3) team.
Northern Arizona hosts Montana (4-4).
CSU is hosting CS-Bakersfield (4-7).
Oregon state hosts Howard (3-8).
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Dayton in a battle late with a solid Illinois State squad. Flyers lead 58-56 at the moment. We need them to get this victory.
Edit: Missed your post, Nik.
Edit: Missed your post, Nik.
UCLA really needs to win... not good for us if they only decide to get good for conference play.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Need Oregon to wake up at UTEP. We don't want our 3rd-4th team in the Pac losing to UTEP (who's down this year). Again, the road in college basketball is mighty dangerous, but no one in the Pac has come close to mastering victories on the road like Oregon has. They were better on the road than at home last season.
Dayton/Illinois State going down to the wire, it would appear. Have to have Dayton get this. 62-61 Flyers at the moment
Dayton/Illinois State going down to the wire, it would appear. Have to have Dayton get this. 62-61 Flyers at the moment
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Dayton has fallen behind 71-65 with 3 minutes left. This would be a crushing home loss and cheapen our win over them.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Dayton falls to Illinois State 74-73. Dammit. Flyers now 8-3 on the season. Finish their OOC slate with Murray State, @ Southern Cal and UAB. They really needed this win tonight. Painful loss for them at home.
In general, the A-10 hasn't been anywhere near as good as I expected this season. Lots of pretty good teams, but no one standing out as "really good". Butler looks like the best of the bunch and that's more coaching than talent.
CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Yep, you've got Butler exceeding expectations and kicking ass. However, Temple, Xavier, VCU are nothing special, although still decent. St. Joes is a disappointment. One or two of these teams will probably get hot down the stretch though. I was hoping Dayton would be an NCAA Tournament team, but they have NIT written all over them, IMO.
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CVilleBuff
Well-Known Member
Northern Arizona falls to 4-6 with a 62-56 home loss to Montana
Oregon falls to 9-2, with a 91-84 loss at UTEP in 3OT. Bad loss for the Pac considering Oregon is supposed to be one of our most likely teams in the Big Dance (3rd-4th in the Pac)
Murray State improves to 9-1 with a 61-54 win at Arkansas State. This win is looking good for us.
Colorado State improves to 8-2 with a 78-58 win over Cal State-Bakersfield. **** CSU.
And as mentioned earlier, Dayton fell to 8-3 with a 74-73 home loss to Illinois State. Big, big missed opportunity for Dayton to get a valuable win. Their Big Dance hopes have faded considerably over the last few weeks.
Oregon falls to 9-2, with a 91-84 loss at UTEP in 3OT. Bad loss for the Pac considering Oregon is supposed to be one of our most likely teams in the Big Dance (3rd-4th in the Pac)
Murray State improves to 9-1 with a 61-54 win at Arkansas State. This win is looking good for us.
Colorado State improves to 8-2 with a 78-58 win over Cal State-Bakersfield. **** CSU.
And as mentioned earlier, Dayton fell to 8-3 with a 74-73 home loss to Illinois State. Big, big missed opportunity for Dayton to get a valuable win. Their Big Dance hopes have faded considerably over the last few weeks.
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