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Colorado RPI Watch

Buffnik said:
Close game now. I'm pretty sure we want Florida in this one. The Gators are a lock to make the Dance, while KSU is a likely bubble team. Don't want KSU taking one of those bids. Plus, a Florida loss would make that UA win over them mean less.
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Yeah, we definitely want KSU to lose. Takes the thunder out of Arizona's win last week otherwise.
 
UCLA in a battle with Fresno State. 39-36 Bruins at halftime. I'm sorry, but that is simply atrocious defense to let Fresno score 36 in one half.

Arizona taking care of business against East Tennessee State in Honolulu.

Colorado State taking care of business against Portland in Las Vegas.
 
UCLA's doing their best to **** things up against Fresno State. The Bulldogs were up by 5 with a few minutes left, but are now trailing by 3 at the half, at Pauley.
 
CVilleBuff said:
UCLA in a battle with Fresno State. 39-36 Bruins at halftime. I'm sorry, but that is simply atrocious defense to let Fresno score 36 in one half.

Arizona taking care of business against East Tennessee State in Honolulu.

Colorado State taking care of business against Portland in Las Vegas.
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The Bruins freshman are definitely talented scorers, but man, that team looks completely disinterested on the other end.
 
UCLA pulling away a little bit, at 57-46 now, but they're completely clueless on the defensive end. They spend most of their time playing man D, but everyone stands around watching the ball so often, that it just kind of morphs into this soft 2-3 zone mid-way through the possession.
 
UCLA won 91-78, Bruins improve to 9-3 while Fresno State falls to 5-7. I guess it's impressive that UCLA scored 91 on Fresno considering how much Fresno likes to slow it down and make things ugly. However, the flip side of giving up 78 points is simply terrible defense. To put it in perspective, Fresno State came into tonight averaging in the mid 50s. 78 was a season high for them, and Fresno has only managed to go over 70 one other time in 10 other games against Division I competition. There's still something shaky about UCLA. They'll certainly be an upper-tier Pac-12 team and likely make the NCAA Tournament, but something is still just "off" with them. UCLA gets a visit from Mizzou next, who beat Illinois today and will be in the top 10 this coming week. Huge opportunity for UCLA and the Pac-12. They've got a chance since they're playing at home. Hopefully they decide to show up for this one. Fresno State, meanwhile, looks destined for the basement of the Mountain West.

Arizona improved to 10-0 with a 73-53 victory over East Tennessee State in Honolulu. I assume they'll be playing the winner of Miami/Hawaii tomorrow. In Miami they'd be facing an upper-half ACC team that stands a good chance of making the NCAA Tournament. They're very solid when they're on (beat Michigan State). If it's Hawaii, they'll be playing a tricky true road game against a team that's tough to beat on the Islands. For example, Illinois only managed to win at Hawaii by 1 in OT. Hawaii is led by Christian Standhardinger, a name that will be familiar to you basketball aficionados out there. The German was a good player for Nebraska our final two years in the Big XII before getting the **** out of Lincoln and transferring to Hawaii.

Colorado State beat Portland 70-53 in Las Vegas. Rams improve to 9-2, and will be playing Virginia Tech tomorrow. That's a game they need to win if they want to be an NCAA Tournament contender. Virginia Tech is mediocre.

Overall, a good day for the Buffs. Wofford getting the win at Xavier was huge. Kansas won at Ohio State, Arizona State and Air Force survived road games, etc.
 
Today, December 23rd:

Arizona vs Miami in Honolulu. Arizona will need to be careful. The 'Canes are 8-1, a top half ACC team, and have beaten Michigan State this season.

Colorado State vs Virginia Tech in Las Vegas. Colorado State needs to win this if they are the legitimate NCAA Tournament contender many think they are. Virginia Tech is likely ~8th team in the ACC. They're 9-2, with a couple decent wins, but have also lost to Georgia Southern.
 
Arizona is up 12 with 15 to go in the 2nd.

and

CSU up 17 with 15 to go in the 2nd.

So far so good for the Buffs tonight.
 
Arizona and Colorado State took care of business.

Solid win for Arizona. Miami stands a good chance of making the Big Dance. They'll be 5th or 6th in the ACC

Colorado State did what they had to do in beating Virginia Tech, although the margin of victory is very solid. Virginia Tech will be 8th or 9th in the ACC. The Hokies started the season hot racking up the home wins, but it's clear they got ahead of themselves and have fallen back to what they are supposed to be: a mediocre team that struggles to win anything away from Blacksburg, even on neutral courts.
......CSU doesn't really have any quality wins at the moment (No, Washington and Virginia Tech aren't "quality") and their loss to Illinois-Chicago is sketchy, but I would imagine it will be a situation like last year where they get a few scalps at home against some of the top MWC teams, which will be enough to get them into the Dance despite struggling to win much on the road.
 
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CVilleBuff said:
Arizona and Colorado State took care of business.

Solid win for Arizona. Miami stands a good chance of making the Big Dance. They'll be 5th or 6th in the ACC

Colorado State did what they had to do in beating Virginia Tech, although the margin of victory is very solid. Virginia Tech will be 8th or 9th in the ACC. The Hokies started the season hot racking up the home wins, but it's clear they got ahead of themselves and have fallen back to what they are supposed to be: a mediocre team that struggles to win anything away from Blacksburg, even on neutral courts.
......CSU doesn't really have any quality wins at the moment (No, Washington and Virginia Tech aren't "quality") and their loss to Illinois-Chicago is sketchy, but I would imagine it will be a situation like last year where they get a few scalps at home against some of the top MWC teams, which will be enough to get them into the Dance despite struggling to win much on the road.
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As of right now the lambs will get 6 total games vs. top 25 opponents in conference, assuming NM stays ranked after this weekend. That's more than we'll get. They also play Wyo twice who is at 35 in the RPI currently. If they can go 4-4 in those games and stay away from bad losses I'd say they're in.
 
ScotchBuff said:
As of right now the lambs will get 6 total games vs. top 25 opponents in conference, assuming NM stays ranked after this weekend. That's more than we'll get. If they can go 3-3 in those games and stay away from bad losses I'd say they're in.
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Yep. The MWC is very strong, yet again. The fact that CSU doesn't have anything in the form of OOC victories over NCAA Tournament caliber teams definitely isn't as big of a concern for them as it is for Pac-12 teams like Cal that lack any quality OOC victories and are now forced to try and find them in the Pac. That's just the sad truth about where the Pac-12 is right now. CSU gets those 6 games you mentioned against Top 25 opponents, and 2 more against a Wyoming team that stands a solid chance of making the Big Dance themselves. The Rams will do something like get home wins over San Diego State and New Mexico, and that will be enough to get them in.
 
buff4bcs1985 said:
#3 Zona did the conference proud beating #17 sdsu 68-67
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Yep, solid win for them. I personally don't think they're legitimately the number 3 team in the country, but I'll take them being in that position for the purposes of helping the Pac-12 (and it's hard to knock them being 12-0 having defeated Florida). That was their final OOC game. Meaning, the next game for Arizona is January 3rd when the Buffs travel to Tucson.
 
CVilleBuff said:
Yep, solid win for them. I personally don't think they're legitimately the number 3 team in the country, but I'll take them being in that position for the purposes of helping the Pac-12 (and it's hard to knock them being 12-0 having defeated Florida). That was their final OOC game. Meaning, the next game for Arizona is January 3rd when the Buffs travel to Tucson.
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Biggest game of the year? Road win over Zona would make us a lock for the tourney.
I'm not predicting a win, its going to be ridiculously tough. We just need to be competitive. Lose by 6 would be fine.
But a win would be oh so sweet.
 
No way we win on the road against Zona. Our offense isn't good enough to win on the road. When you rely on going to the FT line, you aren't going to win many games on the road unless you shoot lights out from the perimeter. In addition, our team seems to let the offensive problems carry over to the defensive end.

We haven't played well on the road ever in the Tad Boyle era. Even the offensive juggarnant of Higgins/Burks/Relphorde/Knutson barely won on the road.

I would love to be competitve (within 10 points) with Zona and beat ASU. That would be a success for this young team. 0-2 would not surprise me. ASU is much better with Jahaii Carlson.
 
I suppose anything is possible, but I have a hard time with the idea that we won't beat ASU.
 
jwhite17 said:
No way we win on the road against Zona. Our offense isn't good enough to win on the road. When you rely on going to the FT line, you aren't going to win many games on the road unless you shoot lights out from the perimeter. In addition, our team seems to let the offensive problems carry over to the defensive end.

We haven't played well on the road ever in the Tad Boyle era. Even the offensive juggarnant of Higgins/Burks/Relphorde/Knutson barely won on the road.

I would love to be competitve (within 10 points) with Zona and beat ASU. That would be a success for this young team. 0-2 would not surprise me. ASU is much better with Jahaii Carlson.
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Arizona at the Keg is the one I want more than any of the conference games----avoid a bad loss (either game with Utah, Wazzu on the road, UW in Seattle) and run the table at home (I include beating Arizona at home when I say that), and we'll be good to go come March.
 
jwhite17 said:
No way we win on the road against Zona. Our offense isn't good enough to win on the road. When you rely on going to the FT line, you aren't going to win many games on the road unless you shoot lights out from the perimeter. In addition, our team seems to let the offensive problems carry over to the defensive end.

We haven't played well on the road ever in the Tad Boyle era. Even the offensive juggarnant of Higgins/Burks/Relphorde/Knutson barely won on the road.

I would love to be competitve (within 10 points) with Zona and beat ASU. That would be a success for this young team. 0-2 would not surprise me. ASU is much better with Jahaii Carlson.
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Colorado hasn't been a good road team since long before Tad Boyle. Winning on the road in college basketball is damn tough. It certainly seperates the contenders from the pretenders.
 
Yea, winning on the road in college basketball is the hardest thing to do in all of sports.

I don't expect the Buffs to go above .500 on the road, but maybe 3-6 or 4-5 best case scenario.

We need to beat the bad teams on the road and upset some mediocre teams. Last year, we won 3 road games in the Pac12, and those teams were all terrible. It won't be that easy this year.

@UA -don't expect us to win or keep it close after watching the KU debacle. I just want a game that's competitive till the end.
@ASU - should win this game, won't be any fans at the game, so our guys won't be scared, but ASU is much improved over last year
@Washington-could win, average to below average team, but still a tough environment to win
@Wash State- same as Washington
@Utah - should win fairly easily
@Oregon - don't expect a win
@Oregon State - don't expect a win
@ Cal - 50/50 chance of winning, we matchup well with them
@ Stanford - don't expect a win, Stanford has our number, would love to beat them twice this year for what they did last year

If we beat ASU, that will be huge for our confidence. We also need to sweep the Washington schools. I see 4 wins possibly if we do that, if not, maybe 1-2 wins on the road.

It will definitely be tougher than last year.

I hope we can sweep all the schools at home because it might take that to make the tourney.
 
jwhite17 said:
No way we win on the road against Zona. Our offense isn't good enough to win on the road. When you rely on going to the FT line, you aren't going to win many games on the road unless you shoot lights out from the perimeter. In addition, our team seems to let the offensive problems carry over to the defensive end.

We haven't played well on the road ever in the Tad Boyle era. Even the offensive juggarnant of Higgins/Burks/Relphorde/Knutson barely won on the road.

I would love to be competitve (within 10 points) with Zona and beat ASU. That would be a success for this young team. 0-2 would not surprise me. ASU is much better with Jahaii Carlson.
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Obviously Arizona is the most unlikely road win of the season in the Pac. However, literally no one in this conference is unbeatable. Everyone is capable of having an off-night and losing at home.

Arizona State needs to be a win. They're improved, but a closer inspection of who they've played explains why they have the record they have. DePaul blew their doors off in Tempe. *Best case scenario*, ASU finishes 8th in the Pac-12. It's a must-win.
 
5-4 is very ambitious for this team on the road. 3-4 road wins is the safe bet unless this team grows up in a hurry (which is entirely possible)
 
WizzersGhost,

You are right, but those are neutral site wins, which are impressive no doubt, but in order for this program to take the next step, we need to win against mediocre teams on their home courts. Winning on a neutral court in LA/Charleston is much easier than winning on the road when 5,000-12,000 fans are cursing your name!

I don't expect us to go above .500 every year on the road, but tourney teams beat the average/below average teams on the road (except CSU last year who really didn't beat anyone on the road). Once we start doing that, then we can aim higher. I would be ecstatic with a 4-5 record on the road this year with our youth. Even 3-6 again would make me happy as long as we don't lose to any below 150 RPI teams.
 
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