Got CU +14.5. Even Klatt, who doesn't usually deal with the lines, commented on that line being too high.
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CU @ UCF - September 28 @ 1:30 PM MT Pregame Thread
- Thread starter Darth Snow
- Start date
Klatt does think it's a very bad matchup for us. Nothing to do with being good or bad, just bad matchup. IMO, it's usually dangerous to touch the line for games like this
I’m not sure what the bad match up I keep hearing about is.
The line is not really moving. There’s a lot of sharp money on UCF -14/-14.5
Klatt is a commentator, not a serious sports bettor. I am nervous to have as much money as I do on Colorado. I’m on an island.
Right? They are run heavy and great at it. But our run defense is top 15 in the country. They have a below average pass rush, Shedeur excels when not pressured. I don't see the bad match up piece at all. I think each team has weaknesses the other can expose and strengths they will have to find a way around.
Sure we haven't been great against running QB's. They haven't been great in pass defense.
Colorado plays tight man coverage most of the time, with very heavy blitz rate. This is a extremely bad match up against a rushing offense with a QB who can really run and a couple of stud athletes in WR positions.
Even if we can score on them and try to catch up, they will grind our D down and score at will in the end.
I am not saying this is what's going to happen, just explaining why is this a bad match up for us.
Outside of the fact it’s east of the Mississippi and I’m attending, I feel pretty good.
If both team successfully expose the weakness of the other side, UCF is still much more likely to win in the end. Colorado offense is just not consistent enough.
Although I agree that if that's the case, we will not lose by 2 TDs.
What's the weakness of CU's defense, cause it certainly isn't the designed run game. Maybe the QB scramble?
I guess I don't really get the logic behind any of this. UCF has a very bad pass defense, which feeds into CU's offensive strength. If CU is able to be explosive in the passing game and score consistently, UCF isn't going to be able to stick with the gameplan of 75% run and sustaining long drives and eating clock.
That's a big if. This year's offense has not been able to score consistently.
Yes they will. Watch the TCU game and you will see. It's their true identities. They grind you down by running even when they are way behind.
The great trait of UCF offense is that they know what they got in QB. They know KJ is not a pocket passer (unlike Kansas/Kansas State/WVU who tried to make their QB look better than a runner), so they don't even pretend to beat you by passing. KJ just happens to have a big arm and they happen to have some great WRs, so they can hurt you when you are overly aggressive in run D.
I am not saying CU can't win, but a lot of things need to be right in our offense in order to win this game.
241Volcanos
Well-Known Member
If we ran a mature offense we’d put up 50 in games like this. Sandlot O has too many 2nd and 25 drive busters.
He got called how many times last year? It's who he is. Has to make a statement hit, or he isn't going to even try.
You're welcome
No
Manhattan island?
running QBs have always hurt us. maybe that?
Costa Rica Buff
Well-Known Member
CU doesn't have to play tight man coverage though OR utilize a heavy blitz rate if they don't want to. Its been the preffered choice to date and likely will be against most teams going forward because it plays to our stengthes. However, I don't see previous schemes to be a predictor of the one they use this weekend. That said, if RL sticks with it in this game he's not what we all hope he is. The other factor that isn't being discussed is that unlike last year, we are much, much deeper on the DL. It isn't going to be nearly as easy to wear down the DL when CU has fresh bodies to substitute late into the game. If they do wear the DL down, it will come much later in the game than anticipated
It is a difficult match up for CU but the perceived advantages for UCF aren't nearly as great as the lines suggest if CU doesn't even a little proactice game planning
jaybird
Well-Known Member
Should be typical florida quick moving afternoon storms.
I disagree with the match up analysis, a bit. We finally have a bit of a more solid run defense. Sure we’ve had trouble with running/scrambling QBs, but that’s not abnormal for most Ds. And we still haven’t given up a bunch of points on D.
I think we can load the box with our LBs finally being solid against the run. Then man up their one good WR and play Zone elsewhere. I think our DC can handle this and adjust. I also think our DL is starting to get a pass rush, and I’m seeing more from the Edge guys each week.
Maybe I’m the only one. lol
Interesting comment from CP about maybe seeing some new faces. Also, Carter Stoutmire is a big kid.
Which players are redshirting and "tapping out" of the season? Prime said it's happening and that probably means 2 deep guys who aren't getting lots of snaps. OL? DB? Are the areas i think of. Maybe some LB.
Love this take, especially if we are getting pounded by the run and holding up, but then getting put back on the field too soon.
Give me your 2-3 sentence explanation of your "Mature Offense" comment, because I completely agree!
Are Hunter’s penalties Personal Fouls?
Is Shilo’s?
What is Hunter’s snap to penalty ratio?
What is Shilo’s
And do Craig and Stoudmire
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Hunter had a personal foul against Stanford that you could argue cost us the game
Medford M.
Well-Known Member
Two things...Shilo isn't a good player, and our defense is far better with him off the field. On3 has pointed out this fact. Shiloh can't cover and is slow, and if he's back in the starting lineup when he's back, it'll be daddy ball, and we'll suffer for it.
Second. CU's defense has allowed 19 points in four second halfs this year. That's elite.
We can stop the run. Jefferson is an ok runner but not a burner at all.
We should be able to win this game.
Second. CU's defense has allowed 19 points in four second halfs this year. That's elite.
We can stop the run. Jefferson is an ok runner but not a burner at all.
We should be able to win this game.
Just because you say it doesn't make it true.
2nd Highest graded defender last year - Shilo.
3rd highest graded defender in game 1 - Shilo
1st for playing more than 20%, 50%, and 80% of defensive stats against NDSU.
Shilo hate has to stop. He can play. I don't even understand it. Him and Benson get so much hate when the all22s don't agree
On3 has had it out for Shilo for awhile. Had him rated a 82 as a transfer which is low end FCS. They had him as JSU worst safety transfer wise by a mile. Shilo can play and he was extremely reliable for us last year and in game 1.
K.Hydock
Member
That coverage will be very focused on the coasts, as it should be. I’m in Orlando for work this week and the residents are very unbothered, I was informing some of them about a potential hurricane this week. No material rain overnight and currently calm and cloudy…