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Official CFP Selection Freakout Thread

Aga
hawg1 said:
Again. Conference rankings are not used. The Committee has been crystal clear on this point. They use individual SoS, not conference strength.
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Again. SEC sos is a total joke. No quality wins outside of the conference, so their wins come from tier 7 regional schools, who they beat at home.
 
tante said:
Aga


Again. SEC sos is a total joke. No quality wins outside of the conference, so their wins come from tier 7 regional schools, who they beat at home.
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Not a part of protocol. But See Sagarin and other services. .
 
Duff Man said:
What if JT's injury was not season-ending, but still severe enough to be out several weeks (including a potential playoff game)? All FSU has to say is he will be ready and the committee has to take that at face value?
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That's the way forward. No team will disclose that a key player's injury is season ending any more.

"Out next week, and we expect them back at some point"
 
Opening lines are posted. Some good chances to bet convictions displayed in this thread.
 
manhattanbuff said:
The P12 was the best conference this season by a wide margin. Close games in the deepest/best conference are expected even for top teams. I recognize that I’m biased because my system has its own player/team/conference power ratings. My ratings have P12, then B1G, <med. gap>, then $EC, <med gap>, then Big 12, then ACC.

F$U without JTrav creates a similar drop to Colorado without Shedeur (in terms of expected points). The drop is slightly mitigated by the quality of their defense. In simulating their games, F$U are definitely NOT anywhere near 13-0 without him (or a QB of his caliber).
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Does your model favor UW over Texas?
 
manhattanbuff said:
The P12 was the best conference this season by a wide margin. Close games in the deepest/best conference are expected even for top teams. I recognize that I’m biased because my system has its own player/team/conference power ratings. My ratings have P12, then B1G, <med. gap>, then $EC, <med gap>, then Big 12, then ACC.

F$U without JTrav creates a similar drop to Colorado without Shedeur (in terms of expected points). The drop is slightly mitigated by the quality of their defense. In simulating their games, F$U are definitely NOT anywhere near 13-0 without him (or a QB of his caliber).
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That's why we play football on a field, and not on a computer.

**** analytics.
 
hawg1 said:
Wins is not a part of the protocol. If it was, Liberty is in.
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So in your world "otherwise comparable" groups are defined only by the bullet points that follow that statement it technically doesn't allow us to distinguish between 4-8 Colorado and 13-0 FSU. So conference champ ends up being the first useful cut.

- SOS
- common opponents
- H2H
- Conf. Championships
- Injuries

So first cut out of all of FBS is conf. champ.
Nix the G5 et al due to SOS;

FSU, Bama, Texas, Washington, Michigan remain.

SOS, H2H, common opponent and injuries remain for those 5

SOS (sagarin)
Texas = 4
Wash = 5
Bama = 12
Mich = 56
FSU = 61

The only H2H is Texas > Bama

Common opponents "without incenting margin of victory"
FSU, Bama both beat LSU
What other meaningful common opponents were there?

Ok, so injuries and SOS KO FSU; but then why is it not:

1. Texas
2. Washington
3. Bama
4. Michigan.

That's because they commence from a ranking and group into 3 or 4 teams per group.
1701636107746.png

All year, they voted the undefeated P5 teams into the top groups even though their tiebreaking principles that come after that grouping don't explicate that they will rank based on P5 record.

How they ranked last week to this week and jumped Bama over FSU can't be described by those bullet points for the within small "comparable teams" groups, or Bama would already have been above FSU.
 
Corey Trevorson said:
Just like you ignored my hypothesis
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Re: the hypotheses

You said if Bama wins then what?

and I explained that with n=1 you can't reject the hypotheses that Bama doesn't belong.

To which you reasserted that your hypothesis was that Bama belongs, which merited no response from anyone.
 
Robert Sorell said:
Re: the hypotheses

You said if Bama wins then what?

and I explained that with n=1 you can't reject the hypotheses that Bama doesn't belong.

To which you reasserted that your hypothesis was that Bama belongs, which merited no response from anyone.
Click to expand...
I just asked what the response is if Alabama wins it - you're skipping right over what I initially said here
 
hawg1 said:
If you like FSU over Bama, go hard on that ML vs UGA.
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That ML is an entirely different process. Those rosters will shift due to transfer portal and Draft considerations now that neither team is alive for a championship.

I'm not asserting that the moneyline is what the CFP is ranking their teams on.

How do you think the CFP Committee gets their buckets of comparable teams?
 
Corey Trevorson said:
I just asked what the response is if Alabama wins it - you're skipping right over what I initially said here
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Go reread what I wrote, I already told you exactly what my response would be.

Basically, it's entirely possible that an inferior Bama team pulls off 2 wins.

I think Bama is a shade inferior to FSU, and both FSU and Bama are well behind Michigan. Even if that gap was such that we expect Michigan to win 75% of the time, a single win by Bama doesn't prove that we were wrong to think that Michigan would win 75% of the time.
 
Robert Sorell said:
That ML is an entirely different process. Those rosters will shift due to transfer portal and Draft considerations now that neither team is alive for a championship.

I'm not asserting that the moneyline is what the CFP is ranking their teams on.

How do you think the CFP Committee gets their buckets of comparable teams?
Click to expand...
By the protocol.

The Committee laid out clearly why they chose Bama.
 
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